Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Spot Prices Wrap: Midwest Strength Fails to Offset Broad Spot Gas Weakness
Natural‑gas spot prices surged as freezing temperatures drove heating demand, but the rally was tempered by broader market weakness. Midwest hub prices posted gains, yet they were insufficient to lift the overall bias, which slipped lower across most regions. Forecasts had anticipated softer demand in the East and Central United States and stronger consumption in the West, but price movements at several hubs ran counter to those expectations. The latest federal inflation report highlighted rising consumer‑energy costs, further pressuring the market.
Trump’s Iran Remarks, Not IEA, Drive Oil Slump
A bit of a stretch, attributing crude’s slump on Thursday to the #IEA report. If the market thought a 4 million b/d glut would cushion any supply disruption/shock, including the one posed by current US-Iran tensions, Brent would not have been...
Oil Inventories Rise, Distillate Falls Amid Mixed Market
A mixed week for the oil glut story CI rose but has fallen from its mid-January maximum U.S. comparative inventory rose 1.7 mmb for the week ending February 6 Crude C.I. rose 7.1 mmb, gasoline rose 1.0 mmb but distillate fell 2.4...
Futures Settle: Natural Gas Pops, Then Drops After Storage Data
Natural‑gas futures surged early Thursday after the Energy Information Administration reported a 249 Bcf net withdrawal for the week ending Feb. 6, marking a second consecutive week of above‑average draws. The data lifted front‑month prices as traders priced in tighter supplies, but...
Gold Surge Signals Capital Shift, Not Risk‑On Rally
Record gold prices + a weakening dollar don’t scream “risk-on.” They signal global capital reallocation and rising demand for insurance amid lingering policy uncertainty. Hedging behavior is increasing even as equities grind higher.
Canadian Farm Milk Price Changes to Reflect Growing Protein Demand
Canadian dairy farmer organizations are overhauling milk pricing to reflect a surge in protein‑rich product demand, with cottage cheese volumes up 32% and yogurt up 7% in 2025. The Western Milk Pool will pay 70% for butterfat, 25% for protein...
TotalEnergies Expects Mexico’s Energía Costa Azul LNG Terminal to Enter Service This Year
TotalEnergies announced that Mexico’s Energía Costa Azul LNG terminal is expected to enter service later this year, adding a new export hub on the Pacific coast. The company projects a total LNG output of 44 Mt per year from its combined...
MidDay Snapshot: Natural Gas Cash Prices Diverge by Region
Natural gas cash prices showed regional divergence on Thursday, with the Henry Hub benchmark rising to $3.425 per MMBtu, up 18 cents, while the NGI Spot Gas National Average slipped 2 cents to $2.955 per MMBtu. The overall market trend...
Vista Energy Increases Reserves by 57% and Production by 59% in 2025
Vista Energy reported a 57% jump in proved and probable reserves to 588 MMboe at the end of 2025, driven largely by the acquisition of Petronas assets. The reserve replacement ratio surged to 605% overall and 260% on a organic basis....
Natural Gas Forwards Soften Again, But Basis Strength Signals Risk of Regional Volatility
U.S. natural‑gas forward prices slipped again this week as the market eases from the January cold snap. Prompt‑month contracts fell 26.7 cents, while regional basis spreads showed mixed movement. SoCal Citygate basis peaked near $1.90/MMBtu for 2028 deliveries, whereas Malin remained...
As U.S. Companies Return to Venezuela's Oilfields — One Canadian Driller Has a Head Start
Canadian oilfield services firm Ensign Energy Services is currently the sole operator of drilling rigs in Venezuela, maintaining two rigs in the Orinoco heavy‑oil region after two decades of continuous presence. A recent Trump administration general licence has opened the...
Final Decision on Open Consultation on Proposed Changes to RBD Palm Olein, Cfr South China and Crude Coconut Oil, Fob...
Fastmarkets concluded an open consultation on its palm and lauric oil benchmarks with no objections, so it is implementing methodological changes. The roll date for Refined Bleached Deodorised (RBD) palm olein CFR South China shifts from the 16th to the...
Silver Stalls Below 75; Inflation Data Could Spark Metal Rally
$SLV having big trouble getting above 75.00 again...which still won't be enough to restore confidence. Big inflation report ahead...precious metals may see a big reaction.
Gold Dip After NFP Profit‑take, Still Bullish Long‑term
GOLD ( XAUUSD ) just dumped over a 1000 pips after yesterday's NFP , but what just happened ? 👇 Netanyanho signalled towards de-escalation in the middle east with a potential deal b/w Iran & US This optimistic headlines lead to a...
Reuters Reports on Recent China, India Coal Projections
The episode reviews recent Reuters reports on coal outlooks for China and India, highlighting projections from the China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association and a NITI Aayog study. In China, output is expected to edge up modestly in 2026 while...
IEA Lowers 2026 Oil Demand Forecast on Economic Uncertainty, Higher Prices
The International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 850,000 barrels per day, down from a previous estimate amid heightened economic uncertainty and rising crude prices. Demand gains will come entirely from non‑OECD economies, with...
SOLS: Cheap US Uranium Conversion Monopoly Amid Global Shortage
Thread(1/2) 🧵 We put our SOLS long thesis above the paywall in our Atoms vs. Bits primer yesterday, so I’m also going to summarize for all you degenerates on X. The story is simple: the uranium trade has resulted in nearly every...
Chinese Zinc and Lead Smelters Rely on Byproducts in 2026
Chinese zinc and lead smelters are increasingly dependent on by‑product revenues as tight imported concentrate supplies compress primary treatment charge margins. Silver, sulfuric acid, copper and gold now provide critical income streams, offsetting low zinc and lead TCs projected for...
Nuclear Power Group Alva Energy Launches with $33 Million in Funding
Alva Energy, a Massachusetts‑based nuclear startup, closed a $33 million Series A round led by Playground Global to fund retrofits of existing U.S. reactors. The company will replace steam generators and add a second turbine, boosting each plant’s output by 200‑300 MWe and...
US Natural Gas Storage
The Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 2.5 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in the week ending November 1, bringing total working‑day stocks to 3.22 trillion cubic feet (Tcf). This level sits about 5 percent above the five‑year average for...
Ohio’s Data Centers Tighten Natural Gas Balance
The data center driven surge in Ohio's electricity consumption has contributed to tighter natural gas balances. For the 12-months ending in October, 2025, Ohio's natural gas consumption was 3.7 bcf/d, near an all-time high, driven largely by demand in the...
China’s Urban Gas Network Reaches 484 Million Residents
China’s residential gas revolution China has connected more than 300 million people living in urban households to the natural gas network since 2010, according to data published late last year by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The number of urban...
Ukraine Strikes 2nd Lukoil Refinery in Russia This Week
Ukrainian drones struck Lukoil’s Ukhta refinery in the Komi region, igniting a blaze in the primary unit and a visbreaker. The attack follows a high‑precision strike on Lukoil’s larger Volgograd refinery earlier this week. Ukhta processes about 60,000 barrels of...
Ghana’s Unpaid Cocoa Farmers Are Forced to Go Hungry
Ghana’s cocoa regulator Cocobod owes farmers for tens of thousands of tons of beans as global cocoa prices have halved to about $4,000 per metric ton. The payment backlog forces smallholders like Joseph Dautey and Jacob Tetteh to skip meals,...
IEC-Based Technical Specifications Needed for Second-Life PV Module Market
The IEA‑PVPS Task 13 report warns that the second‑life photovoltaic module market remains fragmented due to missing IEC‑based qualification standards, costly manual repairs, and absent policy support. It recommends fast‑tracking IEC specifications, investing in automated testing hubs, and creating financial instruments...
USA Crude Oil Stocks Rise More Than 8MM Barrels WoW
U.S. commercial crude inventories rose by 8.5 million barrels in the week ending Feb 6, reaching 428.8 million barrels—about three percent below the five‑year seasonal average. Total petroleum stocks slipped 1.7 million barrels week‑on‑week but remain up 81.9 million barrels year‑on‑year. Refinery runs edged lower...
Spain Hits 50 GW Solar Milestone
Spain’s installed solar capacity hit the 50 GW milestone in early 2026, after adding roughly 8.7 GW in 2025. Solar now represents 33.9% of the country’s total installed power capacity and supplied 18.4% of electricity last year. The expansion was led by...
The New Rationale of the EU PV Market
Solar photovoltaic installations continued strong growth in 2025, with Europe reaching a record 70 GW and global cumulative installations surpassing 700 GW, led primarily by China’s over‑half share. The market is increasingly bifurcated: mature regions stagnate while emerging economies accelerate, and battery...
Price Controls Trigger Chaotic, Uneven Resource Allocation
I'm super excited for my new paper with @ATabarrok and Mark Whitmeyer: "Chaos and Misallocation under Price Controls" During the 1973-74 gasoline crisis, the U.S. had about a 9 percent national shortfall. But that was far from evenly spread out. Over...
USA Labor Market Report Underpins Energy Demand
Rystad Energy highlighted that January U.S. non‑farm payrolls increased by 130,000, pushing the unemployment rate down to 4.3% and surpassing consensus expectations. The stronger labor market is viewed as a modest tailwind for demand for transport fuels, petrochemicals and power...
Investors Dump TTF Gas Futures as Prices Slip
INVESTMENT MANAGERS sold futures and options on the Dutch TTF European gas benchmark for the first time in eight weeks as prices retreated despite inventories well below average for the time of year. Funds sold the equivalent of 15 terawatt-hours...
A Geopolitical State of Emergency?
The episode examines escalating geopolitical risks to Europe’s energy security, focusing on rising US‑Iran tensions, Russia’s renewed attacks on Ukrainian energy assets, and shifting US interest in Greenland. Experts from Eurasia Group, Aurora Energy Research, and Montel analyze how these...
Europe’s LNG Hunger Redirects Chinese Shipments to Europe
LNG demand in Europe is so strong that it's taking a shipment *FROM CHINA* ⚠️ An LNG tanker reloaded a shipment at a Chinese terminal and is heading to Europe (China is the world’s largest LNG Buyer) Europe's LNG imports have surged...
WTI Inventories Plunge 54%, Prices Push Toward Yellow Curve
WTI comparative inventory has decreased 14 mmb (54%) from its mid-January maximum $63.09 WTI was $6.50 > marginal price on the red yield curve the week ending February 6 Markets may be adjusting price upward toward the yellow yield curve #energy #OOTT #oilandgas...
Lingering Storm Impact Still Visible in Latest US Weekly Oil Figures
The episode examines the latest U.S. weekly oil inventory data, highlighting how the lingering effects of a recent storm continue to distort supply figures. Analysts discuss the discrepancy between reported crude builds and actual market conditions, noting that refinery outages...
Venezuelan Production Growth Inflated by Low Baseline
30-40% growth *from what baseline*?! Venezuelan production has been all over the map over the past few months—some very flattering base effects from which to cherry pick.
Physical Possibility ≠ Economic Viability in Oil Markets
Again I’ll say: Virtually anything is physically *possible* in the oil market. Far fewer things are economically viable, let alone profitable. This is a nonsense take.
OGJ Crack Spread
The Oil & Gas Journal (OGJ) offers a daily OGJ Crack Spread metric that quantifies the margin between crude oil input costs and refined product sales. This spread serves as a real‑time gauge of refinery profitability and market tightness. OGJ’s...
US Midwest Aluminum Premium Hits Record $1.03 per Pound
"Aluminum prices in the US have been rising faster than global prices for much of this past year because of tariffs. The so-called US Midwest premium...climbed to an all-time high of $1.03 a pound on Wednesday" https://t.co/lVUj91ooyh https://t.co/lIKmsxcJem
Gas Storage Boosts Reliability when Pipelines Fall Short
Natural gas storage is part of the reliability and resilience story too. When there’s insufficient long-distance pipeline capacity, access to storage is your next best bet. This is part of the solution too.🧵 https://t.co/o35G4ig5HU
Supply Dynamics, Not Demand Forecast, Drive Oil Market
Sure, the IEA demand forecast update was negative... but pretty inconsequential in the scheme of the supply developments that are actually currently driving the oil market. https://t.co/P0KD7cPlR4
All Markets Tumble, $3.6T Erased in 90 Minutes
-$3.6T in 90 minutes Gold fell 3.76%, wiping out nearly $1.34T in market cap. Silver dropped 8.5%, losing around $400B in market value. The S&P 500 declined 1%, erasing $620B. Nasdaq slid more than 1.6%, shedding $600B. The crypto...
Venezuela's Oil Output Projected Near 1M B/D by 2026
How much oil would Venezuela produce by Dec 2026? (Current output has rebounded to just under 1m b/d)
U.S. Corn Exports Surge 52% Beyond 2020 Levels
🌽U.S. corn export sales for 2025/26 are nearing 61 million metric tons (2.4 billion bushels). Early Feb sales in 2020/21 were similarly massive but heavily skewed by China. Non-China 2025/26 corn sales are 52% larger than at this point in 2020/21!
Gold Lacks Earnings; Overvalued Compared to Commodities
I managed the largest gold fund in USA. Here's the truth: Stocks have "babies" (earnings). Gold has NO babies. 🍼 Gold's at historic extreme vs. oil/soybeans. You're crazy if you think gold's gonna outperform inflation - @BergMilton https://t.co/bNqmCOVYCt https://t.co/7NJ9NoBZCx
Utilities Prefer Rate Hikes over Data‑center‑funded Battery Power
Culture change is hard. Utilities like @DukeEnergy would rather raise rates 15% on their ratepayers because they feel forced to pay “$3k/kW” for gas instead of adding 7,200 MWs of batteries paid for by data centers at existing solar sites...
Japan's Next‑month Heat Ends Winter, Gas Bulls Retreat
Pack it up, gas bulls. Winter is over Japan's temperature outlook for the next month 👇 https://t.co/0NTPCXmGD1
Gold Peaks, Yet GameStop‑Style Demand Keeps It Alive
My entire feed says gold has peaked and Bitcoin's turn is coming. Then I sat down with Joshua Lim. He sees signs of a blow off top… BUT also GameStop-esque demand propping up the metal 😅 #gold #markets #liquidations
Refineries Drowning in Silver Scrap, Bearish Outlook
Why @BergMilton is bearish silver: refineries are OVERWHELMED with silver scrap, EVEN MORE than in 2011 (prior speculative peak). Well sourced from "largest smelter in New York" Apple🔊https://t.co/bNqmCOVqMV Spotify📽️https://t.co/mnN6Dn02hi https://t.co/ng04tObLMG
2026 Poised for Mining Breakout as Silver Strengthens
Gold stocks ripped in 2025… and the crowd still isn’t here yet. That’s the setup. In my @CSE_News TV chat, I break down why 2026 could be when developers + explorers finally get their moment—and why silver strength matters. Watch: https://t.co/NwTnRuwApf https://t.co/LU31dyl7sv