Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Farmers Sound Alarm over Imminent Food Price Shocks
Australia’s National Farmers’ Federation warns that soaring diesel prices, triggered by the US‑Israel war on Iran, will soon push grocery costs higher. Farmers are struggling to secure fuel for operations, while transport firms face mounting freight expenses. The National Road Transport Association predicts a broken supply chain by late April if diesel costs continue rising. In response, the federal government has released emergency fuel reserves, lowered fuel standards and commissioned a food‑supply‑chain assessment focused on diesel availability.
Urea Under Pressure: History Says Brace for Impact
Urea prices have surged, pushing the urea‑to‑wheat ratio to 1.83, a 97th‑percentile level that compresses farmer margins. Historical analysis of five major spikes since the 1970s shows elevations lasting from six months to nearly five years, depending on whether the...
HS2 Firm Says New Steel Tariffs Will ‘Exacerbate’ Cost Pressures for UK Construction Industry
The UK government will double import duties on foreign steel to 50% and slash import quotas by 60% from July, aiming to protect domestic steelmakers. HS2 contractor Mace warned the move will exacerbate already‑inflated construction costs, as the Iran‑war energy...
Crude Oil Prices Rise as US-Iran Tensions Escalate over Infrastructure Threats
Crude oil futures surged on Monday as US‑Iran tensions escalated, pushing Brent crude above $108 per barrel and WTI close to $99. The rise was sparked by President Trump’s ultimatum to Iran over the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran’s retaliatory...
Gold Price Slump Drags Shares of Manappuram, Muthoot Finance; Jewellery Stocks Slide
Gold prices slumped on March 23, pulling down the shares of India’s leading gold‑loan financiers. Manappuram Finance fell about 3% while Muthoot Finance dropped more than 5% in early trading. The decline also spread to jewellery retailers, with stocks like...
Gold Loses Its Luster as Stagflation Risk Jumps on Iran War
Gold’s price has slumped more than 15% this month as stagflation concerns surge following the Iran war, and the market now assigns roughly a 30% chance of a Fed rate hike by year‑end, up from expectations of multiple cuts a...
Gold's Drop Signals Tight Policy, Not Liquidations
Seeing a narrative going around that gold is selling off because everyone is getting liquidated. Please. If that were the case, people would be selling stocks first. Gold is leading the downside. To me, this still looks like a market pricing in an extremely...
Current Energy Shock Dwarfs 1970s Crises
I don’t think we have understood yet how serious this crisis is. IEA’s Fatih Birol: ~5 mb/d lost in each of the 1970s oil shocks; ~75 bcm gas after Russia’s 2022 invasion. Now: ~11 mb/d oil and ~140 bcm gas disrupted. https://t.co/6G8leH3lHR https://t.co/ESkY9LyQjx
Copper Falls to Three-Month Low as Global Growth Concerns Rise
Copper slipped to its lowest level in over three months, falling 1.8% on the London Metal Exchange after a 6.7% plunge last week. The decline was triggered by heightened risk aversion stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict, which pushed...
Waha Gas Prices Plunge to Near -$10 per MMBtu
"Over the past week, spot prices at the Waha gas trading hub in the Permian Basin fell as low as -$9.75 per million British thermal units, with expectations that it could hit -$10." https://t.co/camxY0zKrz
Rising Fertilizer Costs Threaten Food Budgets for 500 M
Lots of emphasis on rising fertilizer prices in the US but food is a small part of budgets in the developed world. It's around 40% of the CPI basket in Bangladesh, Thailand, Ghana and Nigeria. That's 500 MILLION people. https://t.co/g5gtlNlsWN...
Middle East War to Dominate Houston's 'Davos of Energy'
CERAWeek in Houston is set to host over 10,000 energy leaders as the Middle East war triggers the biggest oil disruption in history. Attendees include S&P Global’s Daniel Yergin, EDF’s Mark Brownstein, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, and CEOs from...
Impending LNG Shock Threatens Europe and Asia for Years
The LNG shock is about to get real The last Gulf cargoes loaded before the war are now arriving After that, Europe & Asia hit the wall This is a major structural shock that may last years https://t.co/Dw60mbEoxn #LNG #Hormuz #Qatar #Pakistan #Bangladesh #Taiwan #EnergyCrisis...
Gulf Oil Output Could Fall 6.5 MMbpd in March
If held flat at current shut-in levels of around 9 MMbpd, Gulf crude oil production would be down by ~6.5 million on the month in March. Balance math gets much uglier when these run for a full month or more—and things...
Chinese Pig Prices Hit 15-Year Low as War Costs Worsen Margins
Chinese pig prices have fallen to their lowest level in 15 years, pushing producer margins to a four‑year low. Weak domestic pork consumption and rising feed costs linked to the war in Iran are deepening farmer losses. The government has...
Thailand Revives Retired Coal Plants as LNG Prices Surge
Thailand is restarting retired coal units because LNG got too expensive In a real crisis, transition rhetoric gives way to fuel reality. https://t.co/YD0xNKNZzI #Thailand #Coal #LNG #EnergyCrisis #PowerMarkets #Electricity #EnergySecurity #Climate
Further Dips May Trigger Rally Above Feb Low
GC and SI have been on extended runs to the downside, and thus can still do some work down here. But, any further down likely then have a rally back up above this Feb swing low. https://t.co/r7CeCy4jUU
Glitch Shuts Australia's Biggest Maker Of Vital Fertilizer Input For 2 Months At Worst Possible Time
Australia’s largest ammonia producer, Yara’s Pilbara plant, will be offline for roughly two months after a power outage damaged equipment. The facility accounts for about 5% of the world’s traded ammonia, a key feedstock for urea fertilizer and ammonium nitrate...
Gold's Surge Was a Warning, Not a Safe Haven
People buy Gold when they fear bad events. They sell Gold when those events actually happen. Gold ripping was the warning. Now we’re seeing what the market was trying to tell us.
Shell, Trafi, Marathon Top SPR Release Buyers
Shell Trading secured the largest share of the first Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release, receiving 16.2 million barrels, followed by Trafigura (8.86 mn bl) and Marathon Petroleum (7.7 mn bl). The U.S. Department of Energy is delivering 45.2 million barrels of sweet and sour crude from...
Lock in $5 per Gasoline Can via Spot Arbitrage
You can hold that garbage can full of gasoline and wait for higher prices, but risk Trump TACOing and prices dumping. Or you can simply sell the garbage can of gasoline into spot and buy the same garbage can back for...
Goldman Lifts 2026 Oil Forecasts Amid Hormuz Slowdown
GOLDMAN: “We upgrade our price forecast for two reasons. First, we now assume that Hormuz flows remain at only 5% of normal levels for a longer 6-week period before a gradual 1-month recovery. Second, a recognition of the risks from...
LONG READ: Coal Is Back.
Coal is re‑emerging as a key fallback fuel after the Iran‑triggered Operation Epic Fury disrupted global gas supplies. The International Energy Agency now projects 2026 coal demand at a record 8.85 bn tonnes, a 0.5% rise, while thermal‑coal prices have jumped...
Gold: Anatomy of a Selloff
Gold has slumped 18.6% from its January 28, 2026 all‑time high of $5,589 to $4,575, marking a 9.6% weekly drop—the steepest since September 2011—and setting up its worst month since October 2008. The decline is not rooted in a fundamental...
Europe Faces Jet Fuel Shortage Amid Kuwait Strikes
Forget TSA lines, the real problem with air travel in the coming weeks is fuel. Some cargoes are already diverting toward the U.S. on a Jones Act waiver, so domestic travel might hold. Europe? Different story. About 1.77M barrels/day of jet fuel...
Are We Headed for $5 Gas? This 1 Thing Determines How Much You Pay at the Pump (No, It's Not...
U.S. gasoline prices have jumped over 30% in a month, with the national average climbing to $3.88 per gallon from $2.93. The article argues that the single dominant factor is the global price of crude oil, which is rising due...
Oil Futures Face New Pressure as the US and Iran Trade Threats to Strike Key Infrastructure
Oil futures surged on Monday as U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran of bombing its power plants unless the Strait of Hormuz reopened within 48 hours. Brent crude rose 1.27% to about $113.5 a barrel and WTI to $99, pushing...
Iran's Hormuz Threat Emerges as Top Market Risk
⚠️ Iran threatening to shut down the Strait of Hormuz is NOT just geopolitical noise. It’s the single biggest macro risk in the market right now. ~20% of global oil flows through that choke point. If it closes: • Oil spikes • Inflation rebounds • Risk...
Silver's Pump‑dump Threatens Broader Market Stability
The Devil's Metal: Silver and Risks of Contagion - Silver's 1Q pump-then-dump may prove contagious. The so-called "devil's metal" has lived up to its reputation, reversing a 63% year-to-date gain on Jan. 28 to a 5% decline on March 20....
Middle East LNG Shipments to Cease in 10 Days
Finacial Times. LNG from the Middle East expected to stop within 10 days. More supply and maritime problems ahead.
Thailand Revives Mothballed Coal Plants, Curbing LNG Prices
More evidence of Asian counties performing a LNG-to-coal fuel switch: Thailand has reactivated two coal-fired units that had been mothballed. The switch is important to put a lid on global LNG (and European gas) prices. https://t.co/qqyd5NrZQ8
Funds Hold Strongest Corn Bullish Stance Since 2025
🌽Money managers as of March 17 held their most bullish position in CBOT corn fut & opt since late Feb. 2025, as more shorts were forced out of the market. That marked funds' 9th consecutive week as net corn buyers, their...
Dollar-Oil Surge Cripples Emerging Markets, Unmodeled Squeeze
DXY up 3% in a month on safe-haven demand. Oil up 50%. Dollar up AND oil up simultaneously. Emerging markets are getting crushed from both sides. This is the squeeze nobody is modeling. https://t.co/xogAtPGq0m
Waiving Restrictions Lets Putin Sell Oil at 2022‑level Prices
By what? Giving waver to Putin to sell his oil freely at prices we have not see since 2022? 😉
War Triggers Soaring Commodity Prices, Gas up 85%
Price increases since the start of the Iran war... European Natural Gas: +85% Heating Oil: +80% Brent Crude Oil: +54% Urea: +48% WTI Crude Oil: +46% Gasoline: +44% Diesel: +42% Sulfur: +25% Coal: +24% Fertilizer: +23% Palm Oil: +13% US Natural Gas: +8% Iron Ore: +7% Rice: +7%
Renewables Lower Electricity Prices, Not Increase Them
Everything this guy says is fake or misleading. The chart is one of taxes, not RE cost https://t.co/LxtCmfzTkR RE correlates with lower, not higher, electricity prices. Of the 14 states meeting 50-124% of demand with WWS, 12 are 2-5...
Hormuz Closure Cuts 30% Fertilizer Supply, Spurs Food Prices
OUT NOW - @JLinvilleFert on how Strait of Hormuz's closure has blocked >30% of world's fertilizer exports & degraded farming economics. Upward fert & food price risk. It's bad. Apple 🔊https://t.co/cMO23J6a4g Spotify📽️ https://t.co/CX48AK9HEc YouTube📽️ https://t.co/qx5Od1DJd1 https://t.co/uA1oP879mc
Weekend Read: Paul Krugman on the Hormuz Shock
As a first for me, I'm recommending @paulkrugman as a weekend read/listen. @robin_j_brooks makes it possible with a discussion on the Hormuz shock. https://t.co/aQ64hxAHxb
Oil Announcements: Hype Unveiled, Real Market Moves
The Oil Shell Game: Peeling Away the Bluster of the Latest Oil Announcements. Trade. https://t.co/FyQ7lGbyR5
Iran's Strike on Qatar Threatens Gulf Energy Supply
Iran struck Qatar's gas infrastructure. Qatar is the world's largest LNG exporter. This isn't just oil at risk. It's the entire Gulf energy supply chain. $XLE is at all-time highs for a reason. https://t.co/7TjuVfAelG
US Gas Prices Shifted to Brent‑Only Influence After 2010
"U.S. retail gasoline prices respond to Brent and WTI before January 2010 and then only to Brent afterwards." (Note: this study is from 2019)
Oil Price Panic Scenarios Need Impossible Export Collapse
Of course you can paint all kinds of horror scenarios for oil prices. But they require two things: (i) a collapse in oil export volumes out of the Gulf from current levels near 10 mmb/d; (ii) a price elasticity of...
Oil Price Surge Adds 2.8% to CPI Inflation
Funny math. If Dec oil meets futures. The YoY inflation of oil will be roughly 40%. Pick your inflation basket weighting and any feed through to core . Headline CPI direct is roughly 7%. Others...
China Faces Gas Shortfall as Gulf LNG Runs Out
"World faces gas supply cliff edge as Gulf’s final LNG shipments approach ports" https://t.co/OjcnxXcs8a "China gets 30 per cent of its LNG from the Gulf but has some domestic gas production and can switch to coal-fired power generation if needed." https://t.co/ikbgxbUPhV
Chinese PV Wafer Prices Drop Amid Weak Demand
Chinese PV Industry Brief: Wafer prices fall on weak demand #energysky -- via pv magazine global: https://t.co/Lzcqrequzf
US‑backed Tankers Keep Loading at Kharg Despite Tensions
Threats are flying between the US and Iran, but what matters for oil prices isn't words but deeds. Those deeds are that big oil tankers with capacity of 2 million barrels keep docking at Kharg Island to fill up. This...
Spain's Power Prices Rarely Linked to Gas, Unlike UK/Italy
Gas only sets Spain's electricity price 15% of the time. When gas costs spike it barely registers on the electricity bill. In countries like Italy and the UK gas sets the price 90% of the time. The difference is enormous. I...
Market Shifts to Expect Higher Volatility After Oil Spike
As fully expected when I said March 3, that the selling had just begun and higher oil would spike global yields. NOW, the market has finally changed its outlook and now expects a lot more volatility. I even gave my 🎯🔥⏳ https://t.co/FoGQa6x3Hh
Higher Oil Prices Won’t Spark US Drilling Surge
“Just because oil prices have spiked higher on geopolitical risk does not mean that US oil companies will drill baby drill"
Middle East Sulfur Reliance Fuels Fertilizer Supply Shock
"Fertilizer Shock Escalates as New Supply Risks Emerge" https://t.co/lgfrgMYRFg "almost half of the world’s supply of sulfur—which is turned into sulfuric acid for the processing of phosphate fertilizer—comes from countries in the Middle East" And US tariffs are making things worse: