Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Internal Buyers, Blenders Push Tea Sales in Coonoor Auctions
The Coonoor tea auction recorded strong sales, with internal buyers and blenders purchasing 78% of the 964,835 kg leaf offering and 87% of the 286,009 kg dust offering in Sale 12. Prices slipped across categories, typical declines ranging from ₹3‑₹10 (≈$0.04‑$0.12) per kilogram, while Homedale Estate’s PD fetched a record ₹350 (≈$4.2) per kilogram. Traders adopted a cautious buying stance as the year‑end approaches, avoiding inventory buildup. Despite lower prices, demand from processors kept overall sales robust.
Carmakers Rush to Secure Aluminium as Middle East War Hits Supply
Automakers are accelerating aluminium purchases as the Israel‑Hamas conflict disrupts key smelting hubs in the Middle East. Export restrictions and port closures have tightened global supply, pushing spot prices above $2,500 per metric ton. Companies such as Volkswagen, Toyota and...
Gold Demand From Central Banks Likely to Rise as Global Risks Intensify: WGC
Central banks are increasing gold purchases as geopolitical tensions and de‑dollarisation drive a safe‑haven shift, according to World Gold Council (WGC) executive Shaokai Fan. Guatemala, Indonesia and Malaysia have entered or re‑entered the market, signaling broader reserve‑strategy changes. Gold prices...
Farmland Value Growth Holds Steady at 9.3%, but Regional Cracks and Tighter Margins Signal Caution Ahead
In this episode, J.P. Gervais, Executive Vice President of the Ag Lending Portfolio at Farm Credit Canada, breaks down the 2025 Farm Credit Canada farmland value report, which shows a national average increase of 9.3%—the same as 2024—but reveals stark...
Japan Rice Prices Dip Below Key Threshold
Japan’s retail rice price slipped below the ¥4,000 ($25.21) threshold for the first time in seven months, reaching ¥3,980 per 5 kg ($25.07) in the week to March 15. The decline marks the fifth consecutive weekly drop and follows an oversupply from...
Singapore Jet Fuel Spike Signals System‑Wide Oil Stress
Singapore jet at $230 a barrel tells you where the stress is showing up first Jet has been ground zero, then naphtha and fuel oil, with diesel next & gasoline last The whole barrel is now under stress. It's a system-wide shock #JetFuel...
Argus Metals Movers: Turkey's Flat Steel Trade Patterns Set to Shift in 2026
In this episode, Argus senior reporter Elife Iboğlu and Tolga Yi Tekiciler, procurement manager at Tatmetal, discuss Turkey’s flat steel market amid tightening EU anti‑dumping and origin rules, upcoming EU quota cuts, and the loss of the UK’s galvanized‑steel exemption....
China’s SGE Silver Trades 11% Premium to Spot
Good morning china 🇨🇳 At open on Tuesday, 3/24 SGE #Silver traded at RMB 16830.0/kg ($76.088/Troy oz) Spot #Silver is $68.440/Troy oz SGE premium at 11.2% over spot
From India to Italy, Trump’s Iran War Is Rippling Through the World Economy
The US‑Israel war in Iran has sent oil, gas, aluminum and fertilizer prices sharply higher, pushing global inflation expectations upward. Elevated energy costs are already biting manufacturers, farmers and freight carriers from India to Italy, while the conflict has forced...
Oil Price Spike Threatens to Cut Thai GDP Growth, Raise Inflation
Tisco Financial warns that a 10% rise in crude oil from a $72‑per‑barrel baseline could trim Thailand's GDP growth by 0.3‑0.4 percentage points and lift inflation by roughly 0.8%. The surge also strains the Oil Fuel Fund, which subsidises diesel...
Oil Market Reset: Billion-Barrel Loss Raises Prices Permanently
The world has lost nearly a billion barrels of oil production, writes @ericnuttall They're gone for good That resets the baseline for oil prices The idea that crude just slides back to $60 once the shooting stops reflects a PROFOUND IGNORANCE about...
African Metal Bans Threaten Chinese Battery Supply Investments
African export restrictions on battery metals are a blow to Chinese companies that have spent billions of dollars developing mines there to dominate supplies https://t.co/yoI9r6fpaN
Oil, Outages and Energy Shifts: The Global Ripples From the Middle East
The episode examines how the Middle East conflict is rippling through global energy markets, from plunging oil prices to strained LNG supplies and rising fuel costs in places like the Philippines. Experts Walter Todd, Ira Joseph, and Ray Coyle explain...
Third Manipulation Spike Pushes Brent to $104
Now, after the third incident of price manipulation, oil prices are rising again. Bent is about $104/b.
China Slashes Hi‑Tech Metal Shipments to Japan, Boosts Magnet Exports
China cuts some hi-tech metals sent to Japan – but magnet exports rise. Why? https://t.co/7TeFEq0KsX
'We Need Stability': Major LNG Suppliers Vexed by Supply Crisis
Major U.S. and European liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters warned on Monday that the ongoing hostilities in the Middle East have created a sizable supply shortfall, threatening global energy balance. The conflict has disrupted key export routes and halted several...
Paper Brent Futures Mislead; Spot Prices Already $150
Brent futures at $110 does not mean $150 is “theater” @robin_j_brooks Spot barrels & products are already trading there. The paper market ≠ physical market Put the esoteric models in the trash & ask any oil trader what's true #Brent #Oil #SpotMarket #Futures...
CEOs Warn Forward Oil Prices Understate War-Driven Tightness
Oil CEOs say current forward contracts underestimate the market strain caused by the ongoing Middle East Gulf war. Physical supplies of crude and refined products remain constrained, creating a gap between futures prices and real‑world scarcity. Executives warn that as...
Oil Markets Grapple With Still-Unclear Mideast Endgame
Tensions in the Middle East remain high as the United States and Iran stepped back from a potential escalation on Monday. ADNOC chief Sultan al‑Jaber denounced Iran’s continued control of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz as “economic terrorism” during...
Oil Prices, Mar. 23, 2026
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Gasoline Prices Around the World
The average global gasoline price is $1.37 per liter as of March 16, 2026. Prices vary widely; wealthier nations generally pay more, while oil‑producing or poorer countries pay less. The United States is an outlier with low prices despite high income. Tax...
US-EU Clean Freight Crests $100/T for First Time
Refined product shipments on medium‑range tankers from the US Gulf to Europe broke the $100 per tonne barrier for the first time in nearly two decades, reaching $108.08/t on a Worldscale 545 voyage. The surge is linked to Iran's de‑facto...
Consumption Hit as Kitchens Feel the Heat of LPG Shortage
India’s food consumption shows early strain as the Iran‑Israel conflict curtails LPG supplies, forcing hotels, restaurants and street‑food vendors to cut operations. Over the past three weeks wheat‑flour sales fell 5‑7% and edible‑oil demand plunged, with palm oil usage down...
Markets Underprice Prolonged Iran Conflict, Expect Sharp Correction
Month two. No de-escalation. More troops. Kharg Island occupation being planned. In my experience, markets that price short conflicts and get long ones reprice quickly and painfully. Kharg Island handles 90%+ of Iran's oil exports. The implicit assumption built into current market prices...
Silver's Sharp Drop Sets Strong Entry Opportunity
Silver's ~46% crash from Jan '26 highs looks like classic volatility, margin hikes, profit-taking after 130%+ run. Long-term? Fundamentals strong: 6th straight deficit in 2026, solar/EV/AI demand provides floor. Shakeout creates better entry. https://t.co/LXPHZL13Eg
Heating Demand Return Likely Reduces Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage Surplus
U.S. natural‑gas inventories withdrew 43 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in the week to March 20, trimming the year‑over‑year surplus to about 101 Bcf. The lower‑48 storage balance is projected to end March at roughly 1,846 Bcf, still 68 Bcf above the 2010‑median but narrowing the...
Copper Demand Stays Resilient Despite Iran Conflict Worries
HOUSTON - Freeport-McMoRan expects demand for copper for use in electrification, data centers and other high-tech areas to remain resilient despite market jitters tied to the Iran conflict, CEO Kathleen Quirk told Reuters on Monday. $FCX
Arab Light Crude Export Routes From Saudi West Ports
Tankers carrying Arab light crude from the Western ports of Saudi Arabia Mapf rom @Kpler https://t.co/FT5mVn08sk
Global Oil Data Deck (March 2026)
Commodity Context released its March 2026 Global Oil Data Deck, highlighting the profound impact of the Iran‑War‑driven Hormuz stoppage on oil balances. Confirmed production shut‑ins are set to push the market into its largest deficit on record through March, while...
Middle Eastern LNG Delayed to June, Oil Hoarding Risks Rise
Middle Eastern liquified natural gas (LNG) might not come to Europe till June, and why speculative hoarding of oil is a serious concern going forward, per top shipping/energy hedge fund in shipping and energy trading A must watch
Brent Oil Faces Bearish Turn Near $112 Resistance
#BrentOil Comp big Down Candle and Bearish Engulfing. Resistance $112.1. Support $91.8, $84, $80, $69.2. Near MACD Bear Cross. RSI 63 dropped from Overbought. Top Bollinger Band $107.9. Midpoint Line $97.7. Bottom Band $87.4.
Silver Daily Call for March 23rd, 2026
Silver plunged to a intraday low of $61.00 on March 23, marking its weakest level since December 12, as risk‑off sentiment swept markets. The metal quickly recovered, climbing back to $70.75 by late morning, erasing much of the early loss. Despite an...
Gold's Sharp Sell‑Off May Signal Local Bottom
"Gold had an extraordinary sell-off. I wouldn't be surprised if this was a local low." @ramahluwalia https://t.co/rhrBApEEh7
Markets Still Price Oil Disruptions, Extreme Scenarios Unlikely
"We are still seeing markets pricing some degree of oil disruptions. The worst scenarios are off the table, but also the best ones." @austincampbell https://t.co/Mn06ovDktZ
The $826 Billion Shift: Why Metal ETFs Are Reshaping — and Distorting — the Future of Supply
Metal and mining exchange‑traded funds now control roughly $826 billion, with 84% allocated to physical metal ETFs—gold alone accounts for about $577 billion. By contrast, funds that own mining equities represent just over 12% of assets, leaving critical‑mineral ETFs at a modest...
Gold Spikes Off 200‑day MA Amid Record Outflows
Gold Futs printed big wick energy off the 200-day MA + reclaim of Oct 2025 pivot high. This after Goldman reported $GLD experienced the largest monthly outflow since April 2013 -- capitulation? https://t.co/5qnVQMFUbq
Oil Prices Slip Despite Months-Long Supply Recovery
By now, everyone knows it will take months for oil supplies to recover from this fiasco. And yet the oil price dropped pretty sharply on today's fake TACO. That seems significant to me...maybe, if we get a proper resolution, markets...
Bloomberg Intelligence: Oil Dives on Trump Comments (Podcast)
Oil prices plunged more than 5% after President Donald Trump suggested his team was discussing an end to the Iran conflict, a claim Tehran denied. The comments temporarily eased geopolitical risk premiums, prompting a sharp sell‑off in crude futures. In...
US Corn and Bean Flash Sales Return, First to Mexico
🇺🇸Monday's flash sale of U.S. corn was the first since March 4, and the bean sale was the first since Feb. 12. These also marked the first U.S. flash sales explicitly to Mexico since Dec. 17 (corn) and Jan. 13 (soybeans)....
Silver Expected to Stabilize $65‑90 as Funds Shift to Crypto
I don't think we'll see Silver go substantially lower from here. It's quite clear that there's the range. In between $65-90 I'd expect volatility to slow down. Given that there's been so much upside in these assets, the money is likely...
Global Natural Gas Prices Fall on Diplomacy Hopes, but LNG Disruptions Deepen
U.S. President Donald Trump announced a pause on attacks against Iranian energy assets, prompting a risk‑off wave that pushed April Nymex natural‑gas futures lower. The diplomatic de‑escalation eased Middle‑East tensions, further depressing global gas prices. At the same time, weak...
Brent Crude Slides Below $100, Still Above Pre‑crisis Levels
CHART OF THE DAY: Brent crude oil has settled today below $100 a barrel (at $99.94 a barrel). As the chart shows, still way higher than pre-crisis levels, but also well below the peak reached during the early days of...
IEA's Record Release Fails to Dent $110 Oil Price
IEA released 400 million barrels. The largest emergency release in history. Oil is STILL above $110. $112.76 Brent right now. When the biggest intervention ever can't move price, the supply damage is real. $XLE https://t.co/dls2Gube4l
Trump Halts Iran Power Plant Strikes for Five Days Amid Claims of Productive Talks
President Donald Trump ordered a five‑day suspension of U.S. strikes on Iranian power facilities, saying “very good and productive conversations” had taken place. The pause follows a 48‑hour ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and comes as oil prices...
Jet Fuel Costs Double, Sparking Airline Crisis
Jet fuel prices have DOUBLED to over $200/barrel since the Iran war. Asian airlines and energy suppliers face MAJOR SHORTAGES. SIGNS OF A MAJOR CRISIS ARE APPEARING: Thousands of flights have already been canceled AIRLINES SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO...
Short‑Term Inflation Peaks as Oil Prices Stall
Non-consensus view here @fejau_inc @qthomp ... Feels like short term inflation expectations are likely making a top here. Obviously this has a lot to do with oil. If oil can't go any higher on the headlines now, time to pay attention.......
EIA Sees Oil Glut Tightening in Wake of Iran War
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) trimmed its 2026 global oil‑glut forecast to 1.87 million barrels per day (bpd) in the March short‑term energy outlook, down from 3.05 mbpd projected in February. Quarterly projections show a modest surplus early in the year,...
WTI Poised for Biggest Drop Yet, Still
Depending on where the WTI crude oil front month closes the day, we are looking at either the biggest single-day drop since Jun 23, 2025 or Mar 9, 2022. Either way...massive day...and yet still over 36% higher than the 200-day...
Interest Rate Hikes Pose Bigger Threat Than Oil Prices
"We're focused on and worried about the rise in oil prices, but it's the rise in interest rates that can actually have a broader negative impact on the global economy..." 🎙️ @pboockvar, CIO @onepointbfg https://t.co/JjvKGO6Kfq
Fed Reacts Differently to Oil Price Shocks
I used Claude to draw a chart that captures how I see the Fed's asymmetric reaction function towards oil. https://t.co/q9WcR7aCNC