Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Turkey's Tupras Awards Its Domestic Sulphur Sell Tender
Turkish refiner Tupras awarded part of its domestic sulphur e‑tender for April loading, pricing the commodity at $662‑672 per tonne FCA—an increase of $155‑$183 per tonne from the February round. The awards include 8,850 t from the Izmit refinery at $662‑664/t and 1,000 t from Kirikkale at $670‑672/t. A separate Izmir tender for 3,500 t remains open. The higher pricing reflects tightening regional supply and rising demand for sulphur in petrochemical applications.
Kuwait's Shutdown Could Cost over 100M barrelsKuwait's Shutdown Could Cost over 100M Barrels
Helpful timeline info from @Amena__Bakr on restart timelines for shut-in production. At lest count Kuwait had already shut in 1.6 MMbpd of production (likely higher by now), roughly 30 million barrels unproduced by end-March. Let's be generous and use 3 months from...
EU Postpones Russian Oil-Ban, as Iran Energy Shock Aggravates Rifts
The European Commission announced it will postpone the planned EU-wide ban on Russian oil imports that was slated for 15 April, pushing the decision to after the Easter break without setting a new deadline. The delay is attributed to heightened energy...
Iran War Has Altered the Global Natural Gas Market. Goldman Says These 3 Stocks Will Benefit
Goldman Sachs predicts the U.S.–Iran war will keep the global LNG market disrupted through 2027, tightening supply after Iran’s attacks knocked out 17% of Qatar’s export capacity. Higher margins—averaging 200% above historical levels for 2026‑2028—create a favorable backdrop for producers....
France Proposes Linking Solar Subsidies to Storage as Prices Turn Negative
France’s energy regulator, the Commission de Régulation de l’Énergie (CRE), is proposing to tie subsidies for large‑scale photovoltaic projects to the inclusion of energy‑storage systems. The rule change targets installations above 100 kW and aims to curb revenue erosion caused by...
QatarEnergy Invokes Force Majeure on Key LNG Contracts
JUST IN: 🇶🇦 QatarEnergy declares force majeure on LNG contracts with China, Italy, South Korea, and Belgium.
The Philippines Declares State of Emergency over Fuel Crisis
The episode reports that the Philippines has declared a national energy emergency as diesel and petrol prices more than double amid the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict, prompting an executive order that lets the government control fuel distribution, purchase supplies, and subsidise costs....
U.S. Rare‑Earth Stocks Surge as Government Funding Fuels Investor Interest
USA Rare Earth secured $1.6 bn in U.S. government funding and $1.5 bn from private investors, while MP Materials received a 15% government stake and a $110/kg price floor from the Department of Defense. The twin capital moves have lifted both stocks...
Farage's Fossil Fuel Donors Profit From Iran War
The Iran‑Israel‑U.S. conflict has created a sharp "war premium" that is boosting fossil‑fuel equities. Jeremy Hosking’s hedge fund, which manages roughly $3 billion, saw its oil, gas and coal holdings rise by more than $25 million since the war began. Hosking has...
ICAC Warns Cotton Farming ‘Under Threat’
The International Cotton Advisory Committee warned that cotton farming faces mounting threats from soaring input costs, climate‑driven disruptions, and insufficient policy support. Dr. Keshav Kranthi presented data showing farmer margins shrinking as pest pressures and extreme weather intensify. Meanwhile, apparel...
Crude Oil Futures Higher on the Day but Remains Below Target Bullish Bias Levels
Crude oil futures experienced a dramatic swing from $84.37 to $101.67 after President Trump’s Truth Social remarks, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical headlines. The contract now sits near $92.68, just below the 50% midpoint of $93.02, keeping sellers in...
Trump's Iran Conflict Pushes Oil Prices Higher Longer
Trump’s war in Iran is putting extreme pressure on global oil supplies, driving up crude prices that now may stay higher for longer. My @morningjoe Chart
Rising Energy Prices Supercharge Cash Flow and Returns
$8T+ Oil & Gas market. Goldman sees $115 crude. When prices rise, cash flow explodes across the energy stack. Here’s who wins 👇 Oil demand >104M bpd. Gas >4.2T m³. Supply stays tight while LNG demand grows. Goldman’s near-term price targets show...
Despite Low Demand, China Drives 5% Increase in Iron Ore Shipments
Global iron ore shipments rose 5% year‑over‑year in the first 12 weeks of 2026, driven by stronger Chinese import demand. Yet Chinese steel production slipped 4% in the same period, pushing inventories to a record 179.5 million tonnes by March 12....
War‑Driven Gas Prices Up $1 per Gallon Nationwide
Rising gas prices caused by the war are already hurting Americans’ bottom line — in both expensive and affordable states. On average, Americans are paying almost $1 more per gallon than they were last month. My @morningjoe e Chart
US Scrap Markets Respond to Middle East Aluminum Supply Disruption
U.S. aluminum scrap markets are feeling the ripple effects of a supply disruption in the Middle East, where cheap energy fuels large‑scale smelting. The interruption of primary aluminum shipments has driven U.S. manufacturers to lean heavily on recycled content, spiking...
Middle East Turmoil Threatens Billions, Not Profits
People think high oil prices will be good for oil companies. Exxon expected to lose $5billion/yr based on Middle East damage so far. Shell's Pearl GTL will be shut for a year. Exxon gets 20% of its oil & gas...
Oil Prices Surge to $98 a Barrel as US Delays Iran Strikes, Stoking Inflation Fears
Benchmark Brent crude rose over 2% to $98.25 a barrel and WTI jumped 3.4% to $91.09 after President Donald Trump delayed planned strikes on Iran. The rally revives concerns that higher energy costs could lift U.S. inflation and pressure the...
Trump’s Strait Ultimatum Sparks 10% Oil Slide, Boosts Defense Stocks
President Donald Trump posted a 48‑hour ultimatum on Truth Social demanding the Strait of Hormuz be reopened, prompting oil prices above $100 a barrel to tumble 10% and defense stocks to rally. The move has intensified market volatility as investors...
Oil Prices Stay High Amid Ongoing Iran Conflict
I talked to @kairyssdal on @Marketplace yesterday about the latest developments in oil and what to make of the latest switcheroo in the conflict with Iran. I don't think this conflict is over by a long shot, so I doubt...
Can Central Asia Become a New Hub in the Global Fertilizer Market?
Central Asian states are mobilising substantial resources to become a new fertilizer hub, with Kazakhstan targeting 6 million tonnes of potash by 2028, Uzbekistan scaling green ammonia, and Turkmenistan expanding phosphate output. The region’s existing gas‑chemical complexes, such as KazAzot and...
Early 2026 Market Volatility Signals Potential Crude Oil Dump
A Tactical Traders Delight May Be Just Getting Started - 2026 - Gold, silver, copper, the S&P 500, Bitcoin and US natural gas have turned 1Q gains into declines. How sustainable are the pumps-then-dumps? Crude oil may be next. That...
Unpacking the Global Poultry Price Flip: Why Are Chicken Legs Now Pricier than Breast Meat?
The episode examines an unprecedented shift in global poultry pricing, where frozen boneless chicken legs are now trading at a premium to breast meat, driven by bird‑flu disruptions, Brazil’s labor shortages, and China’s emergence as a net exporter. Graham Stile,...
Fuel Price Surge Echoes 2008, 2022, Threatens Equities
Gasoline, Diesel Price Surges May Mirror 2008, 2022 - US average gasoline and diesel prices have approached the $4 and $5 a gallon thresholds, raising the prospect of greater consumer and economic stress -- and peaks akin to 2008 and...
Rising $5 Diesel Squeezes Truckers, Hits Economy
"$5 Diesel is Crushing Truckers. It Will Soon Be Felt Across the Economy." https://t.co/u6Z4qcVLci https://t.co/m3UrTU1L2r
Forgive Me Dr. Alhajji, I Was Unfamiliar With Your Game
Dr. Anas Alhajji argues that the U.S. is a major winner from the Hormuz crisis, aligning with the November 2025 National Security Strategy that ties AI dominance to cheap, abundant energy. By disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas...
US Yield Rise Threatens Debt Spiral Amid Oil Tensions
Update: 10y UST yields (blue, RS1) USDJPY*oil (red, LS) USDCNY*oil (green, RS2) Hormuz is still closed; China still has several years of oil inventories; 10y UST yields are ~20-30 bps from triggering a US & global debt spiral. What happens first? Let's watch. https://t.co/ixdOHnatCg
Iran's Transit Fee Hikes Oil, LNG, and Shipping Prices
Factoring in Iran’s “transit” fee. And what it does to the price of oil, LNG, and anything else moving thru the Strait.
Kyodo News Digest: March 24, 2026
Japan will begin releasing oil from its strategic reserves on Thursday to blunt rising fuel prices triggered by the U.S.–Israel‑Iran conflict, while the cabinet also approved mandatory ID checks for data‑only SIM cards to curb fraud. At the same time,...
Global Scramble for Nitrogen Fertilizer Amid Severe Shortage
There's a scramble to look for more fertilizer production & stockpiles. When it comes to Nitrogen fertilizer, "it simply does not exist." - @JLinvilleFert Apple 🔊https://t.co/cMO23J6a4g Spotify📽️ https://t.co/CX48AK9HEc YouTube📽️ https://t.co/qx5Od1DJd1 https://t.co/cSMed2AreF
Brazil's Soy Exports Slow Weekly, Yet Hit
🇧🇷Through the third week of March, Brazil's average daily soybean export rate was 18% lower than the average daily rate during the full March last year. Brazil shipped 14.7 mmt of soybeans in March 2025, a record for the month. Feb...
The Old Narratives Are Dead – Long Live American Energy Dominance
Recent Iranian missile strikes and drone attacks have caused the largest supply disruption in oil market history, removing roughly 8‑10 million barrels per day, including a 2 million‑bpd cut from Saudi Arabia and a 6.7 million‑bpd reduction across the Gulf. This shock has...
WTI Volatility Peaks, Hinting at Trend Reversal
Short video update on $WTI #Oil Market Chaos Deepens as Volatility Signals Possible Trend Reversal https://t.co/GWWJ9vTTrK https://t.co/RpKMSg65g7
WTI Prices Shift to Systemic Risk Regime
WTI price and oil volatility From inverse correlation to systemic risk regime April 2025 - April 2026 #WTI #OilVolatility #OilMarkets #CrudeOil #Tariffs #Trump #Iran #Geopolitics #Macro #EnergyMarkets https://t.co/LIBfuivKbw
Fire at Valero's Port Arthur Refinery Sparks U.S. Gasoline and Jet Fuel Concerns
A massive fire erupted at Valero Energy's Port Arthur, Texas refinery on Monday, disrupting a key Gulf Coast fuel hub. The incident, linked to a heater‑unit malfunction, has regulators and traders watching for possible impacts on gasoline and jet fuel...
Gold Is a Buying Opportunity, Says Gundlach
Gold: time to step in. Gundlach shares the same view. Two ideas I like here: https://t.co/YjKShRTMiy https://t.co/IXZHUSswpm
Unpacking Coffee's Supply Chain Costs and Dynamics
Check out this edition of the Art of Supply newsletter for a deep dive into the supply and cost dynamics of the coffee supply chain. ☕ https://t.co/JyZWYKIpxp
Dangote Refinery Boosts African Fuel Exports as Middle East Crisis Tightens Supply
Nigeria’s Dangote Petroleum Refinery has dispatched 12 petroleum‑product cargoes to five African markets, positioning itself as a regional alternative amid soaring Middle East oil prices and supply shocks. The move comes as Nigeria grapples with domestic fuel price spikes and...
Sulphur Prices Surge 40% Amid Existing Deficit
Sulphur prices now up 40% since before the Iran War Unlike oil, the sulphur market was already in severe deficit https://t.co/gMiE3tcho5
Record Gas Prices Under Biden: How High Did They Reach?
Asking for a friend ... how high did gas prices climb under Joe Biden? https://t.co/sCX5DwSKWz
Trump Postpones Iran Power Plant Strikes for Five Days, Easing Oil Market Jitters
President Donald Trump announced a five‑day delay to planned strikes on Iran’s power grid and energy plants, citing “very good and productive conversations.” The pause comes as Iran’s energy infrastructure faces ongoing attacks, tempering volatility in global oil and gas...
Silver Stabilizes Above $70 per Ounce
Silver prices find new floor around $70 an ounce #energysky -- via pv magazine usa: https://t.co/uxezjzwLQq
Gold Bullion Returns to 200-Day MA After 2.5 Years
gold bullion just pulled back to the 200-day moving average, which is the first pullback to the 200-day in 2.5 years... https://t.co/dwiNknUEwy
Future of Coffee: How It Must Adapt to Survive
Climate change is eroding Arabica coffee’s traditional growing zones, with up to 20% of current areas projected unsuitable by 2050. Farmers are countering the stress through irrigation, shade trees, and heat‑tolerant varieties, while Robusta, a more resilient species, is expanding...
Hormuz Closure Threatens 15 Million‑
Is the Strait of Hormuz still closed and will the global oil industry drain down ~15 million barrels of petroleum stocks outside the Middle East today alone because of it? https://t.co/YQqTHgKaN9
Middle East Conflict Will Drive Long-Term Energy Price Surge
Why the war in the Middle East will have long term impacts on energy prices and our energy security. I talked to TRT World last night. https://t.co/Tia1QYZDBJ
DOE: PH Fuel Supply Will 'Run Dry' If Middle East Tensions Escalate
The Philippines, which imports over 90% of its petroleum, faces a potential fuel shortage if Middle East tensions disrupt global oil routes, especially the Strait of Hormuz. DOE Secretary Sharon Garin warned that gasoline stocks could last about 64 days...
Oil Prices Fueled More by Conflict Expectations Than Supply
The oil price is a combination of two things: (i) a physical shortage of oil in the here and now; and (ii) expectations for how long this conflict lasts. The latter channel is by far the more important one in...
Naphtha Shortage Halts Plants, Sends Asian Markets Tumbling
"Petrochemical Shutdowns Spark Industry Shock, Asian Markets Plunge: Naphtha shortages force South Korea, Japan plant halts as Asian stocks crash amid supply fears" https://t.co/SZ6pwkCiSi https://t.co/se32khyggJ
Bargain Hunters May Drive Silver Rally Before Month‑end
Will bargain buyers come into silver before month end? Last April we saw similar correction before silver went for $100 run. https://t.co/8s8UPSrWxJ