Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Weight of Freight: Guinea’s Grip on the Capesize Market
In this episode, Richard Stevenson of Pendle Commodity Investments explains why capesize freight rates surged in early 2026, highlighting the unexpected boost from Guinea’s bauxite shipments and elevated bunker costs due to Middle‑East tensions. He outlines the political risk of Guinea’s recent mining license revocations and new output quotas, noting that tighter supply could keep freight rates above $30 per ton, while Chinese smelter caps may ease, adding further uncertainty. Stevenson also assesses the broader market outlook, projecting that capesize freight will remain unusually high through 2026‑27 but advises caution given the binary nature of Guinea‑related supply shocks and the limited impact of new iron‑ore projects like Simandou on spot markets. Finally, he discusses how shifting ton‑miles from Atlantic‑Pacific routes and stricter environmental regulations could sustain rate volatility.
Acid Prices Surge as Hormuz Sulfur Supply Tightens
Kamoa-Kakula's #copper smelter is currently producing 1,600 tonnes of high-strength sulphuric acid per day. We are currently selling this acid for between $470/t and $500/t to local mining operations in the DRC Copperbelt that critically need the acid to leach...
Latin America’s Lithium, Copper Boom
Global demand for copper and lithium is surging as electrification, AI data centers, and defense spending accelerate, pushing copper prices up 53% to around $13,000 per ton and keeping lithium in a $11,500‑$28,500 range. Analysts forecast a copper production deficit...
What Natural Gas End Users Should Focus on as Fundamentals Shift
Rising demand from LNG terminals, industrial plants, petrochemicals and power generators is tightening U.S. pipeline capacity, forcing natural‑gas end users to rethink supply strategies. The surge pushes LNG feed‑gas deliveries toward 20 billion cubic feet per day, creating price spikes during...
Portugal Edges Closer to Declaring Energy Crisis as Gas Prices Surge
Portugal is close to meeting EU criteria for declaring an energy crisis as natural‑gas wholesale prices surge past €180 per megawatt hour (about $195) and are 85% above pre‑war levels. If the European Council confirms the crisis, the government could...
China Eases Planned Increase to Gas Prices for 300 Million Drivers
China's National Development and Reform Commission trimmed a planned gasoline hike, setting the average pump price at $4.70 per gallon instead of the slated $5.10. The adjustment follows a 20% price surge since the Iran conflict began and aims to...
AM Market Report – March 23, 2026
US President Donald Trump’s fluctuating threats and subsequent pull‑back on striking Iranian power plants sent oil prices tumbling and sparked sharp moves in grain futures. Canola, soybean, corn and wheat contracts all slipped, with canola down $6‑7 per tonne and...
Gold Prices Today: March 23, 2026
Gold futures opened at $4,495.20 per ounce on March 23, 2026, slipping 0.09% from the prior close of $4,499.36. The metal has fallen 10.8% over the past five trading days, reflecting short‑term volatility. Despite the dip, gold posted strong gains...
Oil Price Spikes Hit Hardest in Low-Margin Industries
Oil prices have surged as the Strait of Hormuz closure removes roughly 20% of global supply, double the impact of the 2022 Russia‑Ukraine war. In the week of March 9, U.S. diesel jumped $0.96 per gallon to $4.86, marking the largest...
WTI May Top Near $120 by 2026, Echoing 2008
WTI Peaks and Recessions: $120 (2026), $147 (2008), $130 (2022) - WTI crude oil was near unchanged for the week ending March 20 despite the Strait of Hormuz remaining mostly closed, suggesting a potential topping process reminiscent of 2008. Roughly...
2026 Commodity Pump‑Then‑Dump May Hit WTI Crude
Crude vs. 2026 Commodity Pump-Then-Dump Pattern - Front-month US natural gas futures surged roughly 100% to the January peak, then reversed to about a 15% decline by March 20. Will WTI crude oil follow? Silver and copper have also shifted...
Why Do the West's Farmers Pay the Price for War in Iran?
The war in the Middle East has shut the Strait of Hormuz, sending global oil prices soaring and causing farm diesel in the West of England to double to about £1.25 per litre. Fertiliser costs have jumped from £350 to...
Oil Price Spikes Drive Food Price Hikes
This one is intuitive and goes without saying. But let’s say it anyway; “When oil spikes, food prices tend to follow” Do you know why?
Oil Volatility Shifts: From Demand Collapse to Supply Risk
Both the COVID-19 oil shock and the current Middle East oil shock (has) caused big moves in oil prices (Volatility), but for opposite reasons though. In 2020, demand absolutely collapsed because nobody was using or wanted as much oil as...
China Copper Stocks Fall on War-Driven Price Drop
China’s refined copper inventories shrank by 78,700 tons in the week to March 23, falling to 486,200 tons—the steepest weekly drop this year. The decline was driven by a roughly 12% price plunge on the London Metal Exchange this month, spurred...
Hedge Funds Buy 120 BCF Gas, Still Below Historic Levels
HEDGE FUNDS and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 120 billion cubic feet (bcf) in the two major gas futures and options contracts based on prices at Henry Hub in Louisiana over the seven days ending on March 17....
Iran War Pushes up Miners’ Diesel Costs
The Iran‑Israel conflict has nearly closed the Strait of Hormuz, sending Singapore diesel swaps soaring to about $180 a barrel—almost double pre‑conflict levels. Fortescue Metals Group, the world’s fourth‑largest iron‑ore producer, said a 10‑cent diesel price shift translates to $70 million...
The Oil Prices You See Do Not Tell Market's Real Story
Three weeks into the Iran‑Israel war, Brent futures have jumped about 50 % to roughly $110 a barrel, yet physical oil prices are rising even faster as supplies tighten. Spot benchmarks such as Oman ($162) and Murban ($145) are soaring, and...
Malaysia Eyes New Energy Sources as Oil Prices Rise Amid Middle East Conflict: DPM Fadillah
Malaysia’s Deputy Prime Minister Fadillah Yusof said Petronas is preparing contingency plans to source oil and gas from Australia and other Asia‑Pacific nations as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed due to the Middle East conflict. The closure has pushed...
Long-Term Copper Bull, Short-Term Bear: 2008 Lessons
OK, let’s get this out in the open so we all know where we stand. I’m a long-term #copper bull. But I’m a short-term copper bear. And this is why. I was both a long-term and short-term copper bull in 2008 –...
Oil Prices Fluctuate; Trade Real‑Time Predictions on Hyperliquid
$92… no $110… wait $75… now $87 a barrel Now trading — Crude Oil (Brent & WTI) Powered by @HyperliquidX 24/7 oil markets, users can trade monthly, weekly, and daily Predictions 🛢️ https://t.co/7TwArSgY9T
A Compounding Oil Shock: Part III
The article proposes a "Supply Accord" – a coordinated fiscal‑monetary framework to tackle a persistent, geopolitically‑driven oil shock that has moved from price spikes to real supply constraints. It argues that the Fed’s rate tool can protect the inflation anchor...
Oil Prices Retreat to Reaction Lows, Gasoline Dips
Oil sinking back toward those reaction lows... WTI $87 Brent $99 Gasoline futures down 36 cents https://t.co/68SjGUaFW0
Gulf Shut‑ins Could Cut 200 M Barrels in First Month
Current Gulf production shut ins alone, if held at current levels through end-March, will result in roughly 200 million barrels of crude *not being produced* over the first ~30 days of the Iran War Not simply displaced supply, but barrels that...
Tweet From X Worth Reading
Swiss wealth manager Dieter Lüscher warned that gold and silver are about to experience a sharp, engineered dip as large short positions and expiring options pressure prices downward. He says the low could arrive within days, after which a structural...
US‑Israeli Strike Closes Hormuz, Triggers Global Gas Crisis
Thanks to the US-Israeli attack on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is ‘closed’. As a result, countries worldwide are facing a gas supply CLIFF-EDGE. LNG from Qatar is NOWHERE TO BE FOUND. US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = MASSIVE COLLATERAL DAMAGE. https://t.co/qE8zgTwxgC
Physical Oil Scarcity Outpaces Futures Pricing, Says Chevron CEO
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth says the physical oil market is tighter than the financial oil market is reflecting, particularly for refined products. The scarcity, particularly in Asia, is “not fully priced in the oil futures curve,” he says. #CERAWeek
War-Induced Interest Rate Shocks Unlikely to Upset Asia’s Property Markets
A war‑induced energy shock in Iran has tightened global oil supplies, prompting bond markets to price a 50% chance of a U.S. rate hike by October and spurring tighter monetary policy in Asia. Central banks such as the Reserve Bank...
U.S. Oil Production Likely Plateaued, Growth Hinges on Prices
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth says that U.S. oil production probably reached a “plateau” over the last 6 months or so — too early to say whether growth would re-start as it would depend whether current prices stay or not.
Brazil Soybean Harvest Lags, only 68% Complete
🇧🇷Brazil's soybean harvest was 68% complete as of last Thursday, well below the year-ago pace of 80%. https://t.co/CzD6l0Ilyg
WTI‑Brent Spread Reveals Iran Market Tension
one of the more useful ways to track market tension in Iran is the spread between WTI and Brent crude (nearest contract). Here a 1 yr chart, lower pane shows the spread. src: BBG https://t.co/o0tLpkaSdP
Hormuz Oil Flow Stalled, Supply Strain Persists
This is correct So much of the world now can increasingly just be driven by overconfidently posting through it—but not oil, not for long Hormuz flow still hasn't resumed and every day we're shedding more oil from the system That'll catch up—can't jawbone...
US SPR Release Targets Up to 3 Million Barrels Daily
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright says the US flow rate from the SPR exchange would amount to be 1.0-1.5m b/d and says the total IEA release would come close to 3m b/d. (Those are the first flow rates estimates publicly discussed...
Oil Prices Shift on Brief Comments, Says Wald
Watch Oil Moving on ‘A Couple Words and a Tweet,’ Atlantic Council’s Wald Says - Bloomberg @ACGlobalEnergy #oott https://t.co/YElH8A8ORG
Energy Price Surge Could Add up to 2% Inflation
Goldman: "Higher energy prices will boost global headline inflation sharply in the next 1-2 months.... our country-specific rules of thumb imply that the shock will add 0.8pp to global headline inflation over the next year under our baseline and 2pp...
Brent at $100 Relieves Political Fear of High Oil
Brent is down to $100. The latest de-escalation signal is worth about as much as the escalation signal Saturday night, but - underneath all that - it's clear that high oil prices scare this administration as much as they scared...
US Oil Use Hits Record Low Amid Global Supply Shock
its the "biggest ever shock to global oil supply", as people keep pointing out, but the US economy is also less oil-intensive than it has ever been.. https://t.co/zk9SxpcEA5
Watch Miners Rise as Metal Prices Bottom
A Classic End to A major Gold and Silver Correction like we're seeing occurs when Metal Prices Fall but Miners Hold steady then Begin to rise, giving the all-clear signal- that's what investors should be watching this week. $GLD $SLV...
Oil Prices Near Peak Due to Hormuz Risk Premium
In this podcast conversation with @paulkrugman from last week, we debate my view that oil prices are near their peak because large risk premia are priced into oil that embed substantially reduced tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Watch...
Crude Oil Forms Massive Bearish Reversal at Range Top
Crude Oil creating one of the largest monthly bearish reversal patterns in its history, as it tests the top of its trading range? $USO $SPY $TLT https://t.co/GivNir6qgu
Middle East Conflict Drives Global LNG Exports to Six‑month Low
Global LNG exports drop to the lowest level in six months due to Middle East conflict ⚠️ 🚢 This basically erases supply additions from the US and elsewhere during that period The drop is primarily from Qatar — and to a...
European Gas Dips 9% After Trump Pauses Iran Strikes
European natural gas prices drop as much as 9% after Trump said he instructed US forces to postpone all strikes against Iranian infrastructure for 5 days 🇪🇺 ⚠️ Prices still well above pre-war levels And there’s been no direct/indirect contact...
Oil Prices Have Peaked, Shock Explained
People had lots of questions about the oil shock after this weekend's podcast with @paulkrugman, including on all the different types of oil and which one is most important. I've been pounding the table that oil prices have peaked, so...
Qatar Outage Boosts Russia's LNG Sales to Vietnam
The outage at the world’s biggest LNG export plant in Qatar is apparently benefiting Russia 🇷🇺 ⚠️ Russia’s largest LNG producer Novatek has signed a preliminary deal to supply Vietnam, Tass reported citing CEO Mikhelson (Vietnam is struggling to buy LNG...
Oil Prices Slide as Trump Delays Iran Strikes
Oil and energy commodities tumble after Trump postpones U.S. strikes against Iran energy infrastructure for five days: CNBC https://t.co/nO7poYHdmx
Gold and Silver Discount Window Nearing End, Bullish Reversal Ahead
Bullish reversal coming…discount window in gold and silver going to come to an end soon. https://t.co/Yd9oNzf6ao
Trump’s Iran Comments Send Brent Down $16
An off ramp? A TACO? Another bait and switch? Brent cratered ~$16/bbl on Trump’s latest post talking about “very good and productive conversations” with Iran. https://t.co/6dfE8zEiRE
Metals Surge, Stocks Modest; Bonds Fall
1-year % change: silver +105% gold +50.3% oil +44% S&P 500 $SPX +14.9% bonds $AGG -0.2% long bonds $TLT -5.9%
US Gas Stable, Europe Volatile: One Price Chaos
Compare and contrast US Natural Gas prices to European TTF Natural Gas prices. US prices have barely moved. What was that about there only being one international price for gas 👀 This is what madness looks like with respect to energy policy...
ADNOC Cuts LNG Output as Hormuz Closure Tightens Gas Market
Adnoc is now reducing LNG production because Strait of Hormuz is shut, tightening the global gas market 🇦🇪 ⚠️ Adnoc has “made temporary operational adjustments to production of Liquefied Natural Gas” They’re working with customers to fulfill commitments “wherever possible” https://t.co/dLBNlgiLER