Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Oil Above $100 and 2‑Year Yield Near 3.9% Push Large‑Cap Futures Lower Amid War Escalation
Brent crude rebounded past $100 a barrel while the two‑year Treasury yield rose to 3.88%, sending S&P 500 futures down 0.2% and weighing on large‑cap energy and industrial stocks. The move follows fresh missile and drone attacks in the Middle East and mixed signals from U.S. diplomatic overtures.
Silver ETFs Tumble 18.5% After January Price Plunge, Investors Face Steep Losses
Silver exchange‑traded funds slumped as much as 18.5% after the metal’s price fell 7% in January, wiping out recent gains and leaving investors with deep paper losses. The drop mirrors a broader sell‑off in precious metals driven by higher oil...
United Airlines Flags up to 20% Fare Hike as It Rolls Out Premium “Relax Row” Seats
United Airlines announced a potential 20% increase in ticket prices if jet‑fuel prices stay high and introduced a new premium “Relax Row” seat class. CEO Scott Kirby said the airline is already cutting capacity on unprofitable routes and preparing for...
Dollar Climbs as Iran War Uncertainty Stalls Euro and Pound
The dollar index jumped 0.2% to 99.42 on Thursday, while the euro slipped to $1.1584 and the pound fell to $1.3383 as investors retreated from fleeting optimism over a U.S.–Iran de‑escalation. The move follows a failed peace‑talks narrative, a U.S....
Gas Shortfall Fears Pushed Out Again as Grid Battery Boom and Electrification Take Fresh Bite From Demand
The Australian Energy Market Operator’s 2026 Gas Statement of Opportunities shows that expanding grid‑scale battery storage and accelerated electrification have pushed the nation’s first major gas shortfall from 2026 to 2030. AEMO still flags a peak‑day risk in the southern...
US Stockpiles Keep $5 Corn From Surpassing 2022 Peak
$5 Corn May Mark a 2026 Peak Alongside $120 Crude - The December corn future (Dec26) stretch to $4.99 a bushel around the onset of the Iran war on March 9 may have peak inklings akin to Dec22's $7.66 apex...
US February Import Price Index +1.3% vs +0.5% Expected
The U.S. import price index jumped 1.3% month‑over‑month in February, the strongest gain since March 2022, driven by a 3.8% rise in fuel imports and a 1.1% increase in non‑fuel goods. Capital goods such as computers and industrial machinery posted...
Oil’s 14‑point Swing Signals Massive Unresolved Risk Premium
Oil crashes 10% on diplomacy hopes. Snaps back 4% when Iran denies those talks. WTI: $88 to $91.62 in 24 hours. Same war. Same region. Different headline. The volatility is the signal — not the direction. A 14-point crude range in 48...
Gold Settles Into $4k‑$5.1k Range, Volatility Eases
Gold bounces upwards after taking the liquidity beneath the wick. Classic price action. I think that we'll slowly see the volatility wind down in Gold as it has established a range. Upper side of the range is $5,000-5,100. The lower end of...
Is the Oil Crisis About to Break Global Supply Chains?
In this episode, Ed Elson and Flexport CEO Ryan Peterson discuss the cascading effects of the Strait of Hormuz closure and Red Sea disruptions on global supply chains, highlighting soaring oil, diesel, and fertilizer prices and a 50% rise in...
Is the Iran Crisis a Game-Changer for Russian Gas?
The article examines how the escalating Iran crisis could reshape Russia’s gas exports to Europe, a market where Russia still accounts for roughly 40% of supply. It argues that the EU’s recent pivot toward liquefied natural gas (LNG) has swapped...
Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Briefing
Overnight markets flipped, with grain futures slipping while soybean contracts rose. The shift comes amid a quiet news week ahead of next week’s USDA quarterly stocks and prospective plantings reports. Analysts are trimming corn acreage expectations and expanding soybean plantings,...
Asia Looks to Covid-Era Playbook to Tackle Fuel Crisis
Asia, which purchases more than 80% of the crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz, is confronting a severe fuel shortage after Iran blocked the waterway following its war on February 28. Governments from South Korea to the Philippines are reviving...
U.S. Diesel Hits $5.38/gal, 75th Percentile Since
U.S. RETAIL DIESEL prices including taxes climbed to an average of $5.38 per gallon on March 23 up from $5.07 a week earlier and $3.81 before the war started. Inflation-adjusted prices have averaged $4.80 so far this month (75th percentile...
Oil-Rich Nations Seek to Gain on Price Hikes
Iran’s abrupt closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent oil prices soaring, prompting non‑Middle‑East exporters to step into the breach. Canada’s energy minister hailed the country’s surge as a strategic moment, positioning it as a reliable guarantor for allied...
Costco Uses Low‑Cost Gas to Drive Membership Growth and Sales as Prices Near $4 per Gallon
Costco is capitalizing on its $0.20‑$0.30‑per‑gallon gas discount to attract new members and lift overall sales, reporting a 4.8% rise in paid memberships and a 6.7% jump in comparable sales for Q2 FY2026. The strategy turns volatile fuel costs into...
China's Copper Overcapacity Pressures U.S. Market as Investment Lags
China's state‑backed surge in copper smelting and fabrication now accounts for roughly 80% of new global capacity, tightening markets as the United States lags in domestic investment. The imbalance has prompted 50% Section 232 tariffs and renewed calls for export...
Solar Power Could Slash ASEAN Energy Costs by $67 B, Halving Gas Expenses
Ember’s latest study shows that swapping ASEAN’s planned gas‑fired capacity for solar would save the region up to $67 billion and reduce electricity generation costs by roughly 50%. The finding arrives as LNG prices surge after disruptions in the Strait of...
Iran War Halts 20 M Bpd, Pushes Brent to $120, Triggers Hormuz Fees and Coal Shift
Iran's war has shut down more than 20 million barrels of oil per day and driven Brent crude toward $120 a barrel. Tehran has begun charging transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz, while soaring prices are pushing Asian importers toward...
Valero Port Arthur Refinery Erupts in Massive Explosion, Fire and Smoke Plume
Valero's Port Arthur refinery in Texas suffered a massive explosion that ignited a fire and sent a thick smoke plume across the Gulf Coast. Emergency crews responded as the blast raised immediate safety and supply concerns for the U.S. fuel...
India's Sensex and Nifty Jump Near 2% as Crude Slumps 5% on US‑Iran Ceasefire Hopes
The Sensex climbed 1.89% and the Nifty rose 1.78% after crude oil prices fell 5% on reports of a possible US‑Iran ceasefire. The rally was reinforced by Reliance Industries' first Iranian crude purchase since 2019, signaling renewed confidence in energy...
Why California Has the Nation’s Most Expensive Gas
California’s average pump price hit $5.88 per gallon, the highest in the nation, driven by a mix of state policies and global market shocks. Long‑standing factors such as high excise taxes, cap‑and‑trade fees, and limited refinery capacity have kept prices...
China Lithium Prices Surge, Inventories Decline, 3× June Lows
While most eyes are focused on hydrocarbons in the Middle East, keep an eye on #Lithium in China as well... Some data providers flagged a weekly reduction in inventories, and prices have bounced over the past few days. We seem...
Signs of Jet Fuel Hoarding Emerge in Asia on Iran Oil Shock
Asian airlines are increasingly hoarding jet fuel as the Iran‑Russia war drives crude prices above $120 per barrel. South Korea’s transport ministry is debating redirecting export‑bound jet fuel to the domestic market, while Philippine Airlines warns of imminent fuel rationing....
Middle East Conflict Risks Pushing UK Food Inflation Above 8%, Warns IGD
IGD warns that prolonged Middle East instability could trigger an energy shock that pushes UK food inflation above 8% by June 2026. In its worst‑case scenario, the surge would add roughly $190 to the average household grocery bill, while even...
Blue Moon Apex Deal Underscores Gallium, Germanium Supply Push, Refining Gap
Blue Moon Metals completed its acquisition of the Apex mine, a former U.S. producer of gallium, germanium and copper, to re‑establish domestic supply of these critical metals. The deal includes a 0.5% net smelter return royalty for Teck and positions...
Kenya’s Flower Industry Loses Millions of Dollars Weekly Due to the Iran War
Kenya’s flower industry is losing up to $1.4 million each week since the Iran war began. The Kenya Flower Council reports over $4.2 million in losses across three weeks, with export volumes dropping by more than half. Freight costs have surged to...
SLN Secures Funding, Yet New Caledonia Nickel Remains Risky
SLN stabilised with fresh funding, but New Caledonia nickel supply still faces deep structural risks. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/new-caledonia-nickel-supply-gains-time.html
LPG Crisis Sours India's AC Industry; Production Costs Jump, Nuvama Says
India's air‑conditioner makers are confronting a sharp LPG shortage that is disrupting the brazing process essential for unit assembly. To keep lines running, firms have shifted to oxy‑acetylene, a fuel tied to Middle‑East limestone imports, raising exposure to geopolitical volatility....
Can We Track Fertiliser Ships Before They Hit the Dock?
A proof‑of‑concept platform now tracks bulk fertilizer shipments bound for Australian ports before they berth, using publicly available shipping data combined with commercial signals. Early trials have successfully identified vessel names, tonnages, arrival dates and end‑customers at ports such as...
Weak Refining Economics Heighten Strategic Pressure on US Smelters
US copper smelters face rising strategic pressure as weak refining economics reshape the copper supply chain. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/us-copper-smelters-face-strategic.html
TACO Boosts Trump, War Uncertainty Keeps Oil Low
"Rather than being a sign of weakness, TACO is working in Trump’s favor. No one knows for certain when or if he’ll try to end the war, which has been enough to stop traders from pushing up the oil price."...
Israel Strikes Tehran as Trump Says US Negotiating to End War
Israel launched a missile strike on Tehran while President Trump announced that the United States is negotiating a cease‑fire with Iran. The news sent crude oil prices plunging more than 6%, before partially recovering on doubts about the report’s veracity....
Gold Soars, Bonds Crash: Safe‑Haven Playbook Overhauled
Gold $4,550+. Missiles flying. Bonds selling off. The safe haven playbook just got rewritten. $GLD $GC_F $TLT https://t.co/mnn27BiQUs
Oman Oil Plunges From $170 to $90s, Market Wraps
Lots of headline whipsaw but call me crazy but I do find market price action useful. Oman oil back down to the 90’s from the 170 highs says this is a wrap https://t.co/0WwZo0Hanz
Steel Companies Gear up for Further Hike in Prices
Indian steel producers are preparing for another price increase as U.S. attacks on Iran lift coking coal, ferro‑alloy and shipping costs. Domestic hot‑rolled coil prices have risen 23 percent to roughly $650‑$700 per tonne, up from about $566 a month earlier....
Oil Prices Global, Gas Prices Regional—Explaining US‑UK Gap
Some awkward facts: Oil is sold via a global price mechanism (there are some variations due to transportation costs). Gas is sold on a regional basis. If it was global, then why is US gas a fraction of UK gas?
Retail Influx and Hedge Fund Margin Calls Drove Gold Slump
Why has gold tumbled? Two reasons: (i) the big rally pre-war sucked in lots of retail investors who're more skittish than the previous buyer base; (ii) volatility meant hedge funds had margin calls, so sold profitable positions like gold to...
Oil Prices Drop 5% Amid Hopes of Ceasefire in the War in West Asia, Brent Below $100
Oil prices plunged about 5% on Wednesday as optimism grew that a US‑Iran cease‑fire could be negotiated, pushing Brent crude below $100 per barrel and WTI to $88.31. The decline follows a recent peak near $119, but ongoing strikes and...
Diesel Prices Fell Over 25% in Real Terms
Diesel was $7.25 in real dollars back in July 2008, $6.51 in June 2022 @jkempenergy .. $5.38 in real-time. I'd like to see @JeffWeniger work his magic on this chart https://t.co/u3Tn1K8vRc
Oil’s Wild Swing Shows Volatility Is the Real Indicator
Oil -10% Monday. Oil +4% Tuesday. Same war. Same geopolitics. The volatility IS the signal. $USO $XLE $SPY https://t.co/Od9t9fzbbl
Food Inflation Update Feb 2026
Food inflation in February 2026 shows a fragmented pattern, with red meat prices driving overall increases while fresh produce prices decline. Beef rose 7.9% year‑over‑year and lamb/goat 6.8%, whereas vegetables, fruit and eggs fell 1‑2% annually. Monthly data reveal a...
May RBOB Price Drop Signals Lower National Average
May soon becomes the RBOB prompt.. it's $2.89... implying a $3.80-$3.85 national average (down from today's $3.99 level) https://t.co/0eD1CGzOZ5
Europe's Gas Reserves Deplete Amid War‑driven Supply Crisis
Europe faced with near-empty gas stores just as war hits supply https://t.co/AMi8Pr6NeH via @priazrocha https://t.co/iNtIl6DXzV
Dutch Gas Stocks Plunge to 6.1% Amid LNG Shortfall
Dutch gas inventories fall to **6.1%** full 🇳🇱 ⚠️ This is a seasonal low, and comes as the global LNG market is facing a shortfall due to the conflict in the Middle East https://t.co/OeUgHLyuUf
Thailand May Hike Power Rates 18% Amid Middle East Conflict
Thailand is hiking power prices due to the conflict in the Middle East 🇹🇭 ⚠️ Power rates may be increased by as much as 18% for the May-Aug. billing period due to higher fuel costs Other gas importers are...
US-Israeli Conflict Boosts Iran's Oil Sales and Prices
My take on @AJEnglish on how the US-Israeli war has backfired and is benefiting Iran: “Iran is getting more oil out, they’re selling it at higher prices, and at lower discounts than prior to the US-Israeli attacks.” https://t.co/ySeIcR0lFS
Asia Cuts LNG Imports to Free Gas for Europe
This is why there is so much focus on gas demand destruction 👇 Importers (particularly those in emerging Asia) will need to take less LNG to free-up more for Europe and other richer nations the longer Hormuz/Qatar is shut
OPEC+ March Crude Supply Hits 2020 Low
OPEC+ crude supply in March will be the lowest since the major production cuts during COVID lockdown in 2020.
Oil Demand Peaks by 2030, Gas Demand Rises Onward
Yes. This has been my model for a decade. Oil is approaching peak demand. Perhaps 2030. Natural gas demand will continue to grow well beyond oil.