Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Oil Futures Surge $580 M Minutes Before Trump’s Iran Pause, Triggering Insider‑Trading Probe
A sudden $580 million rush of oil futures contracts hit the market minutes before President Donald Trump announced a five‑day cease‑fire on attacks against Iran, prompting the CFTC to launch an insider‑trading investigation. The spike coincided with a 10% drop in Brent crude and massive $1.5 billion S&P 500 futures buying, highlighting the tight link between geopolitics and derivatives markets.
Philippines Declares Energy Emergency, Seeks 1M Barrels Amid Iran Conflict
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. placed the Philippines under a one‑year national energy emergency and announced a plan to purchase one million barrels of oil to extend the country's fuel stock to about 45 days. The move follows a sharp price...
Oil Surge Signals Market Crash, Gold Surge, Inflation Spike
Oil prices up 20% in weeks. 1 day alone added 9%. In 1973, a supply shock like this wiped 45% off the stock market and sent gold up over 2000%. I have spent 55 years building an alternative framework for understanding how...
Futures Settle: Natural Gas Prices Gain as War Risks Offset Mildest March in 14 Years
Natural gas futures rose on Wednesday after earlier declines, driven by heightened geopolitical risk following Tehran's rejection of a U.S. peace proposal. The market also absorbed bullish signals from rising LNG feed‑gas demand and expectations of tighter storage balances. Despite...
No Escape From the Energy Shock for UK Business. A Long-Term Strategy Is Still Essential | Nils Pratley
UK businesses are confronting an energy price shock, with the nation already holding the highest industrial electricity rates among G7 nations. Cornwall Insight forecasts electricity could jump 10‑30 % and gas 25‑80 %, pushing a typical 12‑month electricity contract to about £578,000...
Markets Hedge Both Ceasefire and War, Await Resolution
The market prices a ceasefire and full-scale war simultaneously. Diplomatic pause: oil -10%. Iran denial: oil +4%. SPY -0.80%. Same week. Opposite pricing. 48 hours apart. Beneath the whipsaw, TLT keeps bleeding. Spreads widen. Copper stays down 10% monthly. Breadth broken. Geopolitical noise drives...
Daily Energy Report
Dutch underground gas storage fell to roughly 6.11% of capacity on March 23, 2026, marking the lowest level for this time of year since at least 2010. The drawdown outpaces the broader EU average, which remains near 20%, and is...
Bunker Fuel Shortages in Asia at Tipping Point as War Disruption Continues
Asian ocean carriers are currently managing bunker fuel supplies, but tightening inventories signal a looming shortage if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Global fuel suppliers warn that prolonged closure could trigger worldwide deficits. To cushion the impact, operators are...
India's LPG Shortage Threatens Households Amid Hormuz Closure
India’s LPG crisis following closure of the Strait of Hormuz The war between the United States and Iran and closure of Strait of Hormuz has become a critical threat to the supply of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) India relies on for...
Oil Below 86 Needed to Sustain Equity Rally
Light Crude Futures $CL_F $USO 2 hour chart on left 30 minute on right Oil had been holding support btwn 94-92 until the 🟠"taco tweet" removed some of the perceived risk in oil It dropped down to the anchor from the beginning of the...
CFTC Probes Sudden Oil Futures Surge Ahead of Trump's Iran Remarks, Citing Insider‑trading Risk
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission opened a formal inquiry after a sudden, undisclosed spike in oil futures trading volume occurred minutes before President Donald Trump's televised statement on Iran. The probe comes as the Middle‑East conflict squeezes supply, with...
Renewables Lower Electricity Prices; Fossil, Nuclear, Bioenergy Raise Them
Whereas more WindWaterSolar correlates with lower electricity prices worldwide, more fossil fuels, nuclear, and bioenergy each independently correlates with higher electricity prices.
War‑Driven Gas Prices Add $530 to Every Household Annually
For every $1 increase at the pump, the typical American household spends an extra $530 per year. Gas is costing Americans $300 million more a day than before the war. My latest newsletter, "This War Will Make You Poorer" (bit.ly/ThisWarWillMakeYouPoorer),...
Invesco Solar ETF Jumps 12% as Oil Volatility Revives Renewable Appeal
Invesco's Solar ETF (TAN) is up 12% year‑to‑date as oil‑price turbulence from the Iran conflict rekindles investor appetite for clean‑energy exposure. The rally mirrors a similar surge after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, while SolarEdge Technologies, the ETF’s top holding,...
Oman/Dubai Crude Plunges $45, Defying Brent Rally
CHART OF THE DAY: The idea was that Brent/WTI was going to catch up higher towards where Oman/Dubai crude was trading (>$150 a barrel) Instead, we are witnessing Oman/Dubai crude plunging >$45 a barrel in a single day to ~$110 a...
Iran‑Israel War Pushes Oil Over $100, Slams Emerging‑Market Stocks and Currencies
The renewed Iran‑Israel conflict has driven Brent crude above $100 a barrel, igniting inflation concerns in oil‑importing emerging economies. The price spike has knocked Asian equity indices and currencies lower while also tightening global gas markets.
Russia's Oil Exports Plunge 40% After Drone Attacks
Cool, cool, cool... "At least 40% of Russia's oil export capacity is at a halt following Ukrainian drone attacks, a disputed attack on a major pipeline and the seizure of tankers ... the most severe oil supply disruption in the modern...
Opinion: Global Instability Could Speed the Shift to Green Jet Fuels
Geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East has driven jet‑fuel prices to record highs, forcing airlines such as Wizz Air to project roughly $55 million in losses. The shock underscores aviation’s exposure to fossil‑fuel volatility and accelerates interest in sustainable alternatives. Emerging technologies...
Grains Report 03/25/2026
The USDA reported that U.S. pork belly stocks rose to 44.9 million pounds in February, a 4.5% increase from January but still 7.6% below a year earlier. Wheat and corn futures gained after President Trump signaled a pause in Iran...
Oil Prices Defy Expectations, Falling Below 2022 Peaks
Every normie feels in their gut that oil should go higher. And every oil expert seems to think that every day we get closer to the true disaster scenario. So why is it that oil is not only below the...
Global Petrol Prices: Here's a Look at How Much Fuel Cost Has Changed Due to the West Asia War
The West Asia war that began on 29 February 2026 has pushed global petrol prices to an average of $1.41 per litre, with the United States seeing a 30.2% jump to $1.13/L. Australia leads the surge at 42% higher, while Sri Lanka’s...
Burdensome Grain & Oilseed Stocks?
Grain and oilseed inventories are not unusually high when measured against current use. U.S. corn ending stocks represent 13% of 2025 projected use, yielding a 12.9% stock‑use ratio—close to the post‑1997 average. World grain‑oilseed stock‑use ratios sit at 26.1%, only...
Maharashtra Plans Multi-Department Panel to Tackle Recurring Onion Crisis
Maharashtra announced a high‑level, multi‑department panel to address the state’s chronic onion price glut and farmer distress. The committee, led by senior officials from Agriculture, Finance and Marketing, will propose immediate relief measures and a two‑to‑three‑month roadmap for long‑term sector...
Weak Sentiment Keeps Kashmir Gold Demand Muted Despite Dip in Prices
Gold demand in Kashmir stayed muted despite a recent dip in prices ahead of the wedding season. Traders expected a surge as gold corrected, but footfall in stores remained thin and buyers opted for lighter pieces. Consumers are favoring 1‑gram...
Anterview with Andy Millett
Andy Millett and Alasdair Macleod dissect the recent plunge in gold and silver prices, arguing that paper markets have become detached from the underlying bullion demand. They highlight weak speculative activity on COMEX and note that retail demand in the...
Spot Dubai Crude Holds Premium Amid Hormuz Uncertainty
Balance of the month cash Dubai crude barrels (white line) still trading higher than the prompt Oman futures (blue) I'm seeing quoted this morning, which are down more sharply, but spot Middle East barrels certainly feeling less pressure and all...
Margin Call Crushed Hunt Brothers' Silver Corner
On this day, March 25, 1980 the Hunt brothers received a massive margin call that helped trigger one of the biggest commodity crashes in history. Texas billionaires Nelson Bunker Hunt and William Herbert Hunt had cornered nearly one third of the...
Gas Prices Near $4 Mark Ahead of Midterms
National average gas prices are now within cents of the pivotal $4-per-gallon threshold, which many elected officials would prefer to avoid in a midterm election year. https://t.co/Ow36WJehg7
Hormuz Crisis Threatens Europe, Fuels US Inventory Uncertainty
🚨Hormuz Crisis goes global: Europe is heading for energy shortages, massive price spikes, and deeper reliance on Russian energy. 🚨What is next for US commercial crude inventories after the SPR release? Daily Energy Report https://t.co/W33F3aHN9V
Oil Importers Intervene; Turkey's Thin Reserves Raise Risk
A lot of oil importers have been intervening pretty heavily to keep their currencies from depreciating and adding to the oil price shock. Turkey is one of the more interesting cases, as its fx reserves remain limited 1/2 https://t.co/zsikWfgTxD
Paper
Coming to terms with the fact that no matter how the Iran War and Hormuz crisis ends it’s going to be far harder going forward to scoff at claims that the paper market isn’t pricing in physical oil market realities. Catastrophic...
US‑Iran Conflict Bolsters Russia’s Grip on Global Food Markets
“An official from an Asian or African country who needs urea before the monsoon does not discuss the Ukrainian question. He calls the Kremlin, and the Kremlin picks up,” she said. On how the US war with Iran is strengthening Russia...
Saudi Red Sea Oil Shipments Near 5 Million‑Barrel Target
Saudi oil shipments via the Red Sea have been ramping up rapidly and are getting close to the five million BPD target https://t.co/SkPyeLTXbO https://t.co/nmq5Kt89xT
Gold and Miners Face Upside Gaps to Fill
"There are a couple gaps on the upside that need to be filled... that might have been a decent low for a period of time here in gold and the gold miners." 🎙️@GuyAdami | $GLD $GDX https://t.co/ZVXyArkxOD
Markets Care About Oil Flow, Not Hormuz Control
Markets don’t really care who controls the Strait of Hormuz as long as the oil starts to flow again — “give markets what they want” doesn’t necessarily mean a US win.
UK Businesses
UK businesses face a jump of up to 80% in gas bills on Iran war https://t.co/THZNalojSw via @EamonFarhat https://t.co/vr4PvVdKFc
Copper Slumps, Gold Soars: Recession vs Fear
Copper down 10% this month. Gold at $4,550+. Same planet. Completely different signals. One screams recession. One screams fear. $CPER $GLD https://t.co/kChEJn36lH
Trump’s Oil Moves Undone by Zelensky’s Strikes
🛑So let me get this straight: President Trump waived sanctions on Russian oil at sea and released millions of barrels from the SPR to bring oil prices down. Then Zelensky struck Russian oil ports and terminals, tightening oil supply and pushing...
Traders Front‑Run Crude Market Before Trump’s Iran Threats
Quite the chart from @axios on suspected crude market front-running ahead of Trump’s major Iran War proclamations. https://t.co/lZY1JkMKCp
Iran Talks Stall, Boosting Gold While Oil Falls
Today's Opening Bell Iran Talks Stall- Gold Rallies, Oil Slides, USD Holds (asset chaptered) https://t.co/TmUUL0psrk
Live on Bloomberg: Oil Markets and Iran War Outlook
Heads up that I'll be LIVE on @BNNBloomberg to talk oil markets and the [??end of??] the Iran War this morning at 11:15am ET. https://t.co/bqG3IGwkQS
Silver Breaks Range, Bullish Outlook for Metals
$SLV Daily. Working thesis for precious metals & miners continues to be a wide range into spring months. Here, silver knocking out range parameters. https://t.co/r9lNUdiS1n
Dallas Fed Energy Survey: Tiny Executive Sample Reveals Key Insight
Dallas Fed Energy Survey for Q1 2026 is out. 2 Notes on this chart: - Only 34 executives responded - That second sentence in the description does all the work https://t.co/gAebgKUX4O
Oil Futures Curve Tracks Middle East News Shifts
I find the oil futures curve to be a useful way of keeping track of news out of the Middle East, as it provides a useful metric for assessing what's changing, and how much. https://t.co/Hl3XzfUEfP
Gold's Buying Power on Oil Has G
18 years ago, an ounce of gold bought your 7 barrels of oil. Now it buys your 50 barrels. https://t.co/oEjSQkutLM
Gulf Shut‑ins Cut Iraq, Iran Output by ~13 MMbpd
GULF SHUT-IN UPDATE: Brings Iraq's confirmed shut-ins to ~3.5 MMbpd as of yesterday, lifts overall confirmed *crude* Iran War output shut-ins to ~9.5 MMbpd. Gas condensate/NGL output losses are on top of that. ~200 million barrels of expected crude won't be...
Gas Prices Surge Above $4, Highest Since 2022
National retail gas prices have crossed the $4.00 per gallon threshold. Highest prices since August 2022. Just a month ago, the President was saying they were under $2 https://t.co/o1wA1BwG3C
Brent Stays >$100, WTI Under $100 Amid Strait Closure
While WTI has remained just under $100barrel, Brent has remained well above $100 as it is more dependent on the Strait. Per the bottom panel below, the backwardation of the forward curve has continued to sit around $20/barrel as the...
BCA Research Hormuz Crisis Dashboard Now Open to Public
Just a reminder that everyone should check out the BCA Research Hormuz Crisis dashboard, which we have now made available to non-cients. https://t.co/2w3YrSrMuA https://t.co/PRmuyuEG4a
Analysts Await Hormuz Reopening Amid Iran War Headlines
Every oil analyst reading the Iran War's done headlines and watching the Iran War's done price action waiting for the Strait of Hormuz to actually begin flowing again https://t.co/4kBqUoI2Np