Today's Commodities Pulse
Lower‑48 gas producers expand output despite storage surplus
U.S. lower‑48 natural‑gas operators are adding production capacity even though storage inventories remain in surplus, according to NGI. At the same time, spot prices are climbing as summer temperatures rise and LNG demand increases.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Strait of Hormuz Shutdown Raises Risks to Japan's Aluminum Supply
The Strait of Hormuz shutdown threatens Japan’s aluminum supply chain, as the country imports roughly 20% of its metal from the Middle East. The closure disrupts shipments of primary ingots that feed industries ranging from beverage cans to bullet‑train components. Japanese producers are scrambling to secure alternative sources and boost inventories. The situation highlights the vulnerability of Japan’s manufacturing sector to geopolitical chokepoints.
Middle East War Triggers Hormuz Shutdown, Freight Rates Surge 800% and Global Supply Chains Stumble
The escalating war in the Middle East has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Maersk to impose emergency surcharges and forcing reroutes that have lifted freight premiums by up to 800%. The shutdown is already curbing production in China,...
Australian, New Zealand Dollars Slip Toward Support as Middle‑East Oil Shock Hits Asia‑Pacific
The Australian and New Zealand dollars edged toward key support zones after Brent crude plunged 6% to under $99 a barrel amid renewed Iran‑Israel hostilities. Energy‑price volatility and broader regional security worries are weighing on Asia‑Pacific currencies, setting the stage for...
Persian Gulf Fertilizer Crisis: Global Food Prices Could Rise 12-18% by the End of 2026, Warns Helios AI
Helios AI warns that if the Persian Gulf conflict ends tomorrow, global food prices could climb 12‑18% above pre‑crisis levels by the end of 2026 and rise further in early 2027. The startup’s model flags three sequential shocks: soaring fuel...
Canadian Farmers Pinched by Iran War as Cost of Key Fertilizer Ingredient Climbs – by Darius Snieckus (National Observer –...
Canadian farmers face looming fertilizer shortages as the U.S.-Iran war chokes the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for phosphate and sulphur shipments. Canada imports over 2.6 million tonnes of phosphate annually, with roughly 80% coming via the United States, which...
Crude Oil Surges 20% Recently, 9% Daily Spike
Crude oil is up 20% in the last few weeks. Oil prices rose 9% in a single day.
U.S. Gas Prices Plunge: Permian Negative
While the world panics about the loss of Qatari LNG, your reminder that nat gas prices in the Permian (Waha hub) had been negative for 35 consecutive trading days — and counting. And that Henry Hub is at ~$3 per...
US Natgas Storage Falls by 54 Bcf
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 54 billion‑cubic‑foot (Bcf) draw in natural‑gas inventories for the week ending March 20. Net working gas fell to 1,829 Bcf, tightening the supply balance ahead of the summer heating season. The draw reflects higher demand from...
Is This Time Different? The Macro Signals Driving Renewed Gold Interest
Gold has surged roughly 50% over the past year, dramatically outpacing the S&P 500’s 14.5% gain. The rally is driven by rising inflation, higher oil prices and heightened geopolitical risk, especially the Strait of Hormuz tension. Federal Reserve rate hikes...
Oil Prices Rise as Wall Street Swings to Doubt on Iran Talks
Oil prices jumped on March 26 as Brent crude rose 4.8% to $101.94 a barrel, driven by renewed doubts over the Iran‑U.S. cease‑fire talks and heightened tension in the Strait of Hormuz. The rally pushed the S&P 500 down 1.2%, the Dow...
Oil Price Surge Is Hurting African Economies: Scholars in Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal, and South Africa Take Stock
Oil prices surged above $100 a barrel after the United States and Israel attacked Iran, prompting Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of global oil. The disruption has sent fuel costs soaring across Africa, prompting...
Gold Demand Just Broke a Record. Supply Can’t Keep Up
A Reuters poll predicts gold will set another record in 2026 as central banks, 95% of those surveyed, plan to increase holdings to historic levels. U.S. demand surged 140% in 2025 to 679 tonnes, while ETF inflows added 437 tonnes,...
Dividend Yield Battle Faces Macro Turbulence as Oil and Crypto Markets Swing
Investors are weighing the dividend growth records of Realty Income and NNN REIT against a backdrop of sharp oil price gains and a cryptocurrency sell‑off, highlighting how macro volatility can pressure yield‑focused strategies.
Hungary Moves to Halt Gas Supplies to Ukraine, Raising Energy Security Stakes
Hungary announced it will cease gas deliveries to Ukraine, intensifying a regional energy standoff. The move threatens Ukraine's power supply as the country awaits a €90 billion EU loan that Hungary is delaying, while broader sanctions and oil market shifts add...
EPA Issues Temporary E15 Waiver to Ease Gas Prices Amid Iran Conflict
EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced a five‑day emergency waiver permitting the sale of E15 gasoline across the United States. The move targets gasoline that has risen to almost $4 per gallon as the Iran war tightens oil supplies, and it...
Belt-Tightening Mode
The Philippines is entering a belt‑tightening phase as a four‑week‑old Middle East conflict drives global oil prices higher, eroding the peso and inflating consumer costs. A temporary suspension of petroleum excise taxes will cut government revenue by roughly $2.5 billion, potentially...
Ordanes Rues Outrageous Diesel Prices in the Philippines, Calls for Probe
Senior Citizens Party‑list Rep. Rodolfo Ordanes urged the Philippine House to investigate a sharp diesel price surge that has pushed pump rates above P100 per liter (≈$1.80), the highest increase among Asian nations. He blamed limited refinery capacity and alleged profiteering...
Chilli Oleoresin Poised to Fall as Producers Shift to Turmeric on Demand for Natural Curcumin
Indian oleoresin producers are cutting chilli extraction as prices double and carry‑over stocks swell, while turning to turmeric to meet rising demand for natural curcumin. China’s entry into the chilli oleoresin market has driven global prices lower, making Indian chilli...
Letters to Editor
The letters to the editor flag four pressing issues for India. A halted Russian oil import and the Hormuz Strait closure have strained the country’s energy supply, prompting calls for domestic gas, electric‑vehicle adoption, solar power and local oil extraction....
Middle Eastern Conflict Compounding Already Volatile Fertilizer Markets
U.S. farmers are confronting a new wave of fertilizer cost pressure as the Middle Eastern conflict has shut the Strait of Hormuz, a key conduit for sulfur imports. The disruption threatens sulfur supplies essential for producing sulfuric acid, a core...
US‑Canada Crude Surplus Fuels Dec26 WTI Spike
Growing US, Canada Crude and Fuel Surplus - When the December 2026 (Dec26) WTI crude future started trading in 2017, the US and Canada had a supply-demand deficit near 1 million barrels a day (MMb/d). Now it's a roughly 7 MMb/d...
Global Fuel Crisis Shows Renewables Are Only Exit
Renewables are the only exit strategy: Day 27 update of the structural heart attack currently taking down the fossil fuel system ➡️India: PANIC. Long queues at petrol pumps nationwide, total dry-out risk up. 9 days of reserves left. Restaurants shut in...
Some States Consider Tax Holidays as Gas Prices Continue to Rise
U.S. gasoline prices climbed to a national average of $3.96 per gallon, up from $3.72 a week earlier, prompting several states to weigh temporary gas tax holidays. Georgia has already suspended its fuel tax, while California, Connecticut, Florida, Maryland and...
North America’s Self‑sufficiency Fuels Massive Oil Profits
Goldman is onto something important here. This is not your grandfather’s oil crisis. It won’t be felt as a supply shock across the Atlantic because North America is a self-sufficient producer. It also means US and Canadian oil companies are about...
Oil Market Shows Growing Numbness to Political Hype
AND THE JAWBONE Crude "only" fell ~$4.50/bbl on the latest Trump post, which is less than 1/3 of the pullback he got on Monday, and the rout was reversed much more quickly. Oil market getting more numb to the nonsense. https://t.co/rgoe9w20zI
Green Steel Demand: Which Sectors Will Lead the Transition in Europe?
European green‑steel demand remains concentrated in a few high‑impact sectors, with the automotive industry driving most of the growth. By 2035, automotive purchases are projected to account for roughly one‑third of the continent’s low‑carbon steel, while construction’s share slips from...
Nitrogen Fertilizers Hit Hard as Gas Prices Surge
Potash and phosphate-based fertilizers remain mostly unaffected, but nitrogen-based fertilizers that rely on natural gas are the problem. Global urea and ammonia supplies are already being hit hard. #fertilizer #foodsupply #geopolitics https://t.co/LaLbS7VyH1
Export Ban Cuts Gasoline, Spurs Diesel, Jet Fuel Surge
The US has been toying with the idea of a US oil export ban. This might briefly lower gasoline prices in the US, but it would drive up diesel and jet fuel costs and worsen the overall energy shock. ANOTHER HAIRBRAIN IDEA...
Oil Cracks $100 Barrier, Sends S&P 500 Large‑Cap Stocks Tumbling
Crude oil surged past $100 a barrel, its highest level since 2022, prompting a wave of volatility across the S&P 500. Analysts warn that higher input costs and inflation risk could weigh on large‑cap energy, industrial and consumer firms.
War Prolongs Oil Price Surge Despite SPR Release
With Brent crude around $109, following the decision to release 400 million barrels from the SPR, along with waivers for Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan oil entering the market, the path is clear: The longer the war drags on, the higher...
Venezuela's Oil Output Limited to 300k Bpd by 2026
My view in the @EpochTimes on Pres. Trump's move on Venezuelan oil: “VEN remains a wild card... its output gains will likely be modest [in 2026], ~300,000 barrels/day, due to deep structural damage in the soft & hard infrastructure of VEN’s...
India’s Cotton Imports Surge in 2025 as Lower Global Prices Drive Buying Spree
India’s cotton imports jumped 130% in volume and 92.5% in value in 2025, driven by a steep fall in global cotton prices. Lower import prices prompted textile manufacturers to increase purchases, seeking cost savings and higher quality raw material. Brazil...
Treasury Claims Ample Oil, IEA Taps Strategic Reserves
“The oil market is well-supplied” — US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. (… that’s quite a statement after the International Energy Agency had to make the largest ever use of his member’s strategic petroleum reserves…)
Gas Supply Disruptions Instantly Ripple Through Energy Markets
"When there are supply disruptions in gas, the impact is immediate in energy markets." https://t.co/9SSDq5hVSn
AUD and NZD Tumble Near Support as Middle‑East Oil Surge Fuels Risk‑off Sentiment
The Australian and New Zealand dollars slipped to near‑key technical supports after Brent crude rebounded to just under $99 per barrel amid renewed Middle‑East conflict. Higher energy costs and a shift in global risk appetite are pressuring the two Southern‑Hemisphere currencies.
Gas Prices Surge 32%, Hitting Stretched Consumers
Gas was $2.93/gallon a month ago. It's $3.88 now. That's a 32% jump. The consumer was already stretched. Now they're paying it at the pump. Inflation isn't just a Fed problem. It's a kitchen table problem. $SPY $XLE https://t.co/eyD0h4taV8
Krugman Explains Economic Impact of Iran Oil Embargo
If you're interested in what an Iran oil embargo means, how it would work, how it would be enforced, how high oil prices might rise as a result, what would happen to Iran's economy, I discussed all this with @paulkrugman...
US‑Iran Conflict Pushes Oil Past $100, Sparking Massive Losses for Importers
U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have driven Brent crude above $100 per barrel, triggering the sharpest macro‑economic shock in weeks. Energy‑importing economies from Kuwait to Japan face double‑digit GDP contractions, soaring import bills and heightened inflation, while Gulf diversifiers...
Oil Prices Near $100 Amid Overoptimistic Peace Hopes
Brent crude nearing $100. Citi's CIO says markets show "excessive optimism" on peace. Iran rejected the latest US proposal. 20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. "Excessive optimism" is a polite way of saying: priced wrong. $OIL $XLE $SPY https://t.co/9YTglnhd8a
Brent Near $108, Awaiting White House Price‑Cut Signal
Brent is close to $108. Will we hear a statement from the White House today that brings back to low $90s? 😉
EPA Issues Temporary Nationwide E15 Waiver to Lower Gas Prices Amid Iran Conflict
EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced a May 1‑May 20 emergency waiver permitting the sale of E15 gasoline across the United States. The move targets soaring pump prices—now near $4 per gallon—linked to the Iran war and seeks to boost domestic...
Break‑even WTI Price Needed to Cover Well Costs
What WTI oil price does your firm need to cover operating expenses for existing wells? @DallasFed via @macrolutzie https://t.co/5sVYLcuBRm
Import Prices Surge 2.8%, Tariff Burden Shifts to US
"Compared with February 2025, the import price index excluding petroleum climbed 2.8% — the most since October 2022 and suggesting the tariff burden is falling primarily on US importers." (The index here does not include tariffs.) https://t.co/BThM0jjJxj https://t.co/QmsfwHVOLd
Fed Governor Barr Warns Iran War Could Stall Inflation Decline and Rate Cuts
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr warned that the escalating Iran war could lift oil and gasoline prices, keeping inflation above the Fed’s 2% goal and delaying any further rate cuts. The comment adds a geopolitical layer to the Fed’s dual‑mandate...
Copper Miners and Prices Dip, Bottom Forming?
Copper Miners $COPX vs Price of Copper $COPPER. Down today but looks like it's hammering out a bottom. https://t.co/CCHLPeGBwv
Export Sales Far Exceed USDA Weekly Targets
Pretty solid export sales #corn 47.9 mb. Needed each week to meet current USDA projections 23.2 mb. #Soybean export sales 24.6. Needed each week to meet current USDA projections 8.3 mb.
RANKED: World’s Top 20 Largest Gold Mines
The latest ranking of the world’s 20 largest gold mines shows Nevada Gold Mines retaining the top spot with 2,595 koz in 2025, while production at several sites shifted dramatically amid market volatility. Gold prices surged to a record $5,600 per...
Brent Spot Tightness Near All‑Time High Amid Supply Fight
BRENT SPOT SO TIGHT Dated-to-Frontline (DFL) Brent crude oil timespread is currently sitting just shy of last week's all-time high, and if we closed here we'd finish at a fresh daily ATH. Signals extreme tightness in North Sea spot crude markets amidst...
US Export Sales Beat Forecast; Mexico Leads Corn, Soy
🇺🇸U.S. export sales met or exceeded expectations last week. Mexico and Colombia led in corn sales, and Germany and Mexico were the leaders in soybeans for new outright sales (China topped net sales, and those were due to a switch...
Gold Holds Despite Rising Real Yields—Warning Sign
Gold at $4,560. Real yields still elevated. Gold is supposed to fall when real yields rise. It's not falling. That's not a hedge. That's a warning. $GLD $TLT $SPY https://t.co/eAdLleClyB