Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Copper Rebound Anchors CAFCA’s Q1 Performance as Export Demand Surges
CAFCA Limited posted a 3% year‑on‑year increase in total sales volumes for Q1 2025, propelled by a 21% surge in copper product volumes. Export shipments to regional markets leapt 77% after the company overhauled its distribution model and eliminated consignment stock. While aluminium volumes fell 25% and utilities demand contracted 42%, overall production rose 13% and revenue climbed 29% YoY, with operating profit up 7%.
Commodities, Rates, and the Repricing of Scarcity
In this episode of Lead‑Lag Live, Will Rhind, founder and CEO of GraniteShares, explains why platinum is experiencing a resurgence due to a structural supply deficit and the waning of peak‑ESG assumptions, while gold continues to hit new highs but...
ConocoPhillips Explores $2-Billion Sale of Permian Basin Assets
ConocoPhillips is weighing a $2 billion sale of Permian basin assets located in the Delaware basin, assets it acquired through deals with Concho Resources and Shell. The move is part of a broader portfolio streamlining that followed its $17 billion Marathon Oil...
Interview with Arigato Investor ありがとう投資家 04.02.2026
In this episode, The Macro Butler interviews the Arigato Investors to explore why gold remains a safe‑haven asset during market turbulence and how its appeal is evolving. They discuss the shifting financial centre of gravity toward Asia, highlighting Hong Kong and...
Africa: Africa's Regional Blocs Must Prevent a Silent Scramble for Critical Minerals
A new scramble for Africa's critical minerals—lithium, cobalt, graphite, platinum‑group metals and rare‑earth elements—is driven by global green‑energy supply chains. The article argues that regional blocs such as SADC, ECOWAS and EAC must coordinate policies to move from raw‑material exports...
Oil Glut Myth Debunked: Sanctions Tighten Real Supply
The oil glut narrative is dying or dead A market rallying 18% YTD isn’t drowning in supply. Yes, barrels exist on paper But sanctions, disruptions, inventories & geopolitics mean they’re not available where prices are set. These views are from the @BloombergNRG article. I agree...
Coal Demand Set for Uptick on Rising Power Needs
India’s power demand rebounded sharply in December, posting a 6.3% rise, and continued climbing in January as a harsh winter and improving economic activity spurred electricity consumption. The surge is expected to lift coal demand, reversing a period of weakness...
Gold Digger: Why Gold Remains the Market’s ‘Biggest Trade’
Triple Eight Capital’s Roscoe Widdup warns that gold remains the market’s biggest trade, with bullion prices poised to climb above $5,000 per ounce. He highlights that top gold miners are trading at less than 10 times forward cash‑flow, a steep discount...
REalloys Secures 5‑Year Rare‑Earth Deal, Boosts Saskatoon Expansion
REalloys signs 5-year SRC deal for NdPr, Dy, Tb and funds Saskatoon capacity expansion. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/02/realloys-rare-earth-supply-deal-with.html
Invenergy Inks Supply Deal for Three New Natural Gas-Fired Power Plants in Arizona
Invenergy announced a supply agreement with Tallgrass to provide natural‑gas infrastructure for up to three new gas‑fired power plants in Arizona’s Maricopa and Yuma counties. The deal comes as the utility expects electricity demand to surge more than 40% over...
Japan's Deep-Sea Rare Earths: Promise Meets Extraction Hurdle
Japan’s deep-sea rare earth find at Minamitorishima sounds like a game-changer. And on paper, it is. The 50-50 mix of light and heavy rare earths is impressive, especially since heavy elements are the truly scarce ones. The bad news is it’s...
Jan Gas Futures Near $5, Could Slip Below $4.40
January Natural Gas vs. Lower Energy, Rates Goals - The January natural gas future (Jan27) is typically the tip of the price curve and will be tops in relevance around the US midterms, with a potential downward bias. Preexisting trends...
YPF Chief Readies War Chest for Shale Push
YPF SA is committing to keep its $3.5 billion upstream capital spending unchanged, even if oil prices slip to $55 per barrel, to sustain its shale push in the Vaca Muerta basin. CEO Horacio Marin said the company has raised a $1 billion war...
BTC Poised for 65‑70K Range, Bullish on 72K Break
BULL CASE: ETF inflows sustain, 72K breaks, CLARITY Act passes, whales' 236K BTC accumulation since December proves prescient. BEAR CASE: Tariff uncertainty persists, institutions keep distributing into retail buying, 65,600 USD breaks and opens a path to 60K. MY CALL: Range-bound between...
Interview with Andrew Maguire of Kinesis
In this episode, Alasdair Macleod and Andrew Maguire of Kinesis dissect the ongoing silver squeeze, highlighting how massive short positions in China and robust physical demand are forcing paper markets to the brink. They explain the eastward shift of price...
Chariot to Raise $20 Million to Fund Offshore Angola Oil Production Stake
Chariot Plc announced a $20 million equity placing to help finance the acquisition of a producing oil interest offshore Angola. The deal, in partnership with Shell Trading and Etu Energias, targets Blocks 14 and 14K, which currently produce about 8,000 barrels per day....
Gold Reclaims $5,100 Amid Geopolitical and Rate‑Cut Pressures
GOLD ( XAUUSD ) : 5100 Has Been Reclaimed. Exactly as shared ahead of time. Technical break of market structure , Rising Geopolitical concerns , Tariffs uncertainty , Stagflation concerns , Rate cuts pricing = Higher Gold.
Brent Spreads Widen Sharply as Front‑month Jumps
Where's the Glut? Brent 12-month spread widened $1.79 (52%) 6-month spread widened $0.68 (30%) for the week ending February 20 Front-month price increased $4.01 from $67.75 to $71.76 #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/GkGOzWLZRj
Weekly Recap (2/20/2026)
The episode reviews the week’s market data and focuses on the Supreme Court’s decision that President Trump cannot use the Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs, prompting him to invoke Section 122 for a temporary 10% tariff that expires...
Closing Fossil Plants Drives Winter Grid Strain, Price Spikes
Had we not shut down so many coal plants and suppressed so many pipelines and prevented so many gas plants, this winter's electricity demand could have been easily and cheaply met. Instead, it strained grids, spiked power prices, and spiked heating...
Gold and Silver Surge Amid Iran Tensions, CNY Break Ends
Gold back over $5100 USD and Silver over $84 USD. We have a potential Iran conflict, and the end of the CNY break next week. https://t.co/Eac6sG80np
Wall Street Bears Turn Tail After Gold Rises to $5,100/Oz, Main Street Bullishness Unchanged as Iran Tensions Mount – by...
Gold prices rebounded from early‑week weakness, reclaiming the $5,000 support level and climbing to $5,100 per ounce by week’s end. The initial dip was tied to reduced Chinese demand during the Lunar New Year, but safe‑haven buying spurred by rising...
Sanctions Cripple Cuba's Grid, Wealth Fuels Private Power
Sanctions + fuel shortages broke the Cuban grid Those with dollars self-electrify while the rest sit in the dark. Energy desperation risks deepening inequality while the broader economy deteriorates. https://t.co/xOjVSt4Eep #EnergyCrisis #Cuba #Sanctions #Solar #GridFailure
Oil Volatility Beats Fundamentals Amid Trump Risk
Markets are trading a binary Trump headline risk, says @Ole_S_Hansen Oil isn’t moving on fundamentals alone—traders are loading up on upside calls while inventories draw hard. When positioning shifts this fast, volatility is the signal, not the noise. https://t.co/Lan48DvOA7 #OilMarkets #Brent #WTI...
Nutrien Sees Potash Demand Growing Again This Year After Record Harvest – by Daniel Johnson (CP24/Canadian Press – February 19,...
Nutrien Ltd. projects potash demand to expand for a fourth straight year, targeting sales of 14.1‑14.8 million tonnes in 2026. Benchmark potash prices are roughly 20% higher than a year earlier, reflecting tighter market fundamentals. CFO Mark Thompson highlighted constrained...
Mineral Resources Posts Interim Profit on Onslow Boost, Lithium Rebound
Mineral Resources swings to interim profit on stronger Onslow output, lithium rebound https://t.co/DOTSeLY4pB via @KitcoNewsNOW
US Sells Venezuelan Oil to India, Surprising Twist
Today, the US announced a plan to sell Venezuelan oil to India. Note who’s selling Venezuela’s oil to India. It’s Uncle Sam. AMAZING. https://t.co/SLitquccox
Trump Threatens 'Global' Tariff on Aluminum Scrap
President Donald Trump signaled a possible 10% tariff on U.S. aluminum scrap imports after the Supreme Court struck down his earlier country‑specific duties. He indicated the executive order would invoke Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, which permits duties...
January Milk Production Rises as USDA Reports Four Percent of Dairies Closed
U.S. milk production rose 3.2% in January, reaching nearly 20 billion pounds, while per‑cow output increased by 24 pounds. The dairy herd expanded by 200,000 head to 9.15 million, despite a 4% drop in licensed dairy farms for 2025. Kansas and South Dakota...
U.S. Poultry Production Falls to Start 2026
U.S. poultry production slipped in January 2026, with the USDA reporting 4.49 billion pounds certified wholesome—a 3% year‑over‑year decline. Chicken output fell 3% to 4.081 billion pounds, while turkey production dropped 4% to 398.6 million pounds. The contraction stems from slower processing speeds...
Soybean Growers Applaud Court Ruling, Warn Against New Trump Tariffs
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that President Trump cannot invoke the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs on agricultural inputs. The decision overturns several IEEPA tariffs on fertilizer and farm equipment, a relief for soybean growers. Despite the...
Closing Grain and Livestock Futures: February 20, 2026
On February 20, 2026, U.S. grain and livestock futures showed mixed movement. Corn edged higher to $4.27, while soybeans slipped to $11.37 and soybean meal rose to $309.80. Livestock prices fell, with live cattle at $242 and feeder cattle at...
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
The episode reviews the overnight futures market, noting mixed grain movements and modest profit taking in soybeans. A pivotal moment came when the U.S. Supreme Court, in a 6-3 decision, ruled that President Trump’s tariffs were invalid because only Congress...
Venezuela to Export First Asphalt Since May
Venezuela has begun its first asphalt export since the U.S. revoked sanctions waivers in May 2025, with the 36,681‑dwt vessel The Judge loading at Amuay Bay. The shipment follows new OFAC general licenses issued on Jan 29 that lifted restrictions on...
Permian Plunge Pressures Natural Gas Forward Curve as Northeast Premiums Fade
Permian’s Waha hub price plunged more than 50 cents per MMBtu, pushing the natural‑gas forward curve into negative territory through mid‑2026. At the same time, Northeast gas premiums retreated despite forecasts of a cold weekend, narrowing the regional price spread. Western...
War Risk Premium Adds Only $10 to Oil Prices
U.S./Iran: Oil Prices and the War Risk Premium Oil traders currently assign a low probability to a war between the United States and Iran that results in significant and sustained disruption to exports from Iran and other countries in the Persian...
Real Energy Costs Have Declined Since 1960s
🚨New report from API 🚨: Energy & Inflation 2025 Highlights: - As a share of disposal income, energy expenditures have fallen since 1984 - In inflation adjusted terms, gasoline prices were lower in q4 2025 than in 1976 - Fuel costs have been declining...
Methanol Market Trends, China MTO Outlook & MTBE Analysis
In this episode, senior fuels consultant Roel Salazar and VP of Methanol & Derivatives Dave McCaskill review the first two months of 2026 methanol market headlines, focusing on price movements, supply dynamics, and demand shifts. They examine China’s methanol‑to‑olefins (MTO)...
BMO Raises Gold Forecast to $6,500, Bull Peaks $6‑7k
The Bank of Montreal has followed my lead. It just UPGRADED its gold price forecast to $6,500/oz by year's end. I predict the GOLD BULL will PEAK at $6,000-$7,000/oz. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/69wgiprOrt
Silver Near 10‑Month Streak Amid $2T Liquidations
$2 trillion in forced liquidation blamed on chinese traders, margin hikes & Warsh pick, silver is 33 cents away from completing its 10th consecutive monthly candle (if it were monthend) #forex #XAUUSD #XAGUSD https://t.co/SOjpd04sAO
The Hydrogen Stream: Dutch Agribusiness Installs 1 MW Electrolyzer
Dutch tulip nursery Rainbow Colors has become the first agricultural firm to commission a 1 MW solid‑oxide electrolyzer for on‑site hydrogen generation, integrated with a solar array and battery storage. The system, built with Denmark’s Dynelectro and Ekinetix, can produce hydrogen...
NovaGold Opts Single‑phase Donlin Build at $5,000 Gold
"We have looked at building [the Donlin project] in phases, but given the current price environment of about $5,000 an ounce, it's our current thinking to build the project in a single build," said @NOVAGOLD 's CEO Greg Lang. ...
Funds Go Long on US Grains, Soybeans Surge
📈Funds turned bullish across U.S. grain & oilseed futures and options through Feb. 17, their first collective long since early December. This was driven by surging optimism in soybeans & soybean oil and waning pessimism in the grains, especially corn....
The World’s Largest Lithium Metal Maker Is Now Producing Semi-Solid-State EV Batteries
Ganfeng Lithium, the world’s largest lithium‑metal producer, has begun mass‑producing semi‑solid‑state batteries with energy densities ranging from 400 to 650 Wh/kg. The company secured supply agreements with major OEMs including Tesla, Volkswagen, Hyundai, and BMW for lithium hydroxide and other battery...
28‑km Soybean Truck Queue Highlights Brazil Port Bottleneck
🇧🇷A 28-kilometer line of trucks waiting to deliver soybeans has formed outside Brazil's Miritituba river port. Just for reference, the journey from Sinop in north Mato Grosso - which is heavy in soybean production - is about 1,000 km (620...
First Quantum Pegs Argentina Copper Mine’s Value at $5.9B
First Quantum Minerals announced that its Taca Taca copper‑gold project in northwest Argentina now carries an after‑tax net present value of $5.92 billion and a 19.3% internal rate of return, more than double the 2021 estimate. Updated reserves rose 13%, adding...
Xi's Consolidation Will Prompt China to Seek Cheaper Imports
Once Xi shores up his political base at home, I expect China to go back to buying cheaper commodities elsewhere, as the U.S. is not the low-cost producer of grain and oilseeds. #oatt
US Has 12‑18‑month Window to Sell Commodities to China
The United States has a window of opportunity to sell commodities to China over the next 12 - 18 months while President Xi tries to shore up his support at home, while seeking favorable access to the U.S. consumer market...
Historical Cropping Patterns for Illinois Grain Farms
The Illinois Farm Business Management Association’s data show that from 2015 to 2024 corn acreage declined across all three regions, with northern farms dropping from 61.6% to 56.4% of tillable land. Central Illinois farms hovered near a 50/50 corn‑soybean split,...
China Pays Premium for US Grain to Leverage Trump
Only China had put retaliatory tariffs on U.S. grain and oilseeds, and China is now buying U.S. commodities at a higher prices than the alternatives (without the tariffs) to get more favorable treatment from Trump on other issues. #oatt