Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Surging Oil Tanker Rates Tipped to Go Even Higher
Oil supertanker charter rates have surged, with VLCC earnings on the Middle East‑to‑China lane reaching $151,208 per day, the highest since 2020. The spike is driven by heightened geopolitical risk from a potential US‑Iran conflict and a tightening supply of available vessels. Ownership concentration has intensified, as South Korean shipowner Sinokor now controls roughly 120 VLCCs, about 40% of the unsanctioned fleet. Global crude production rose by 3.9 million barrels per day in January, further tightening the market.
Gold Rises With Stocks, Breaking Inverse Trend
🚨 GOLD DEEP DIVE | FEB 20, 2026 🚨 Gold: $5,048/oz (+1.25% today | +71.82% YoY) Silver: $81.94 (+151% YoY) GDX Miners ETF: $104.23 (+21% YTD) The most telling signal: gold is surging today while stocks ALSO rally on the Supreme Court tariff ruling....
US Gas Dips Below $3 as Supplies Stay Ample
U.S. gas prices retreat on comfortable stocks Front-month U.S. gas futures prices have slipped below $3 per million British thermal units for the first time in four months as traders become convinced gas will remain plentiful despite record exports. So far, this...
USA Crude Oil Stocks Drop 9MM Barrels WoW
U.S. commercial crude inventories fell 9 million barrels in the week to Feb 13, leaving stocks at 419.8 million barrels—about five percent below the five‑year average. Total petroleum stocks also dropped 18.9 million barrels week‑on‑week, though they remain 62.9 million barrels above a year ago....
Global Oil Data Deck (February 2026)
The February 2026 Global Oil Data Deck reveals that the worldwide liquids market, still heavily oversupplied, finally tightened in December—the first such move in six months—signaling the end of the most oversupplied year since 2020. Production fell in December mainly...
AngloGold’s Earnings Benefit From Strong Production Growth
AngloGold Ashanti reported record free cash flow of $2.9 billion for 2025, driven by a 16% rise in gold production to 3.1 million ounces and a 45% increase in average gold price to $3,468 per ounce. The company declared an interim dividend...
Tungsten Breaks Into CMI Top 5 Consideration as Supply Risks Reshape the Critical Minerals Watchlist
The Critical Minerals Institute (CMI) has elevated tungsten to a top‑5 candidate on its 2025 watchlist, citing China’s 80%‑plus production share and the lack of domestic U.S. sources. In the interview, Director Alastair Neill also highlighted copper, gallium, cobalt, uranium and...
Correction to Bauxite, CIF China Price on February 20
Fastmarkets announced that the bauxite CIF China price assessment published on February 20 was invalidated due to a procedural error. The pricing database has been corrected, and the next release will occur on February 27, following the Chinese holiday calendar....
Copper: Imminent Supercycle or Mostly Hype?
In this episode, Doomberg examines the recent surge of interest in copper, dissecting whether the metal is on the brink of a genuine supercycle driven by supply constraints and booming demand, or if the hype is largely speculative. He outlines...
BOEM Proposes 3rd GOA Lease Sale
The U.S. Interior Department’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) announced a proposed notice for Lease Sale Big Beautiful Gulf 3 (BBG3), slated for August 12, 2026. The sale would put roughly 15,066 offshore blocks covering 80.4 million acres on the market, with a...
A Defensive Rally.
The episode examines the surprising year‑to‑date rally in oil and gas equities, highlighting that despite a "risk‑off" environment, energy stocks are outpacing all S&P sectors. The host attributes this to improving momentum, stronger global manufacturing PMIs, a weaker U.S. dollar,...
Commodity Boom Helps to Drive JSE Confidence
South Africa’s commodity surge—gold up 65% and platinum 125%—is fueling a boom on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, with mining firms delivering double‑digit returns. The JSE’s recent rule changes, cutting shareholder approval thresholds from 75% to 50% and aligning disclosure standards,...
Gold Poised for Reversion as Oil Bears Down
Is Gold the Next Big Commodity Trade? Historic Reversion Risks - Geopolitical tensions could add fuel to crude oil's bear market as it approaches good resistance while heightening peak signals in gold's bull market. The metal has reached historic extremes...
Supply Scare Could Deepen Brent’s Bear Market
A Supply Scare Can Add Fuel to Brent Downtrend - What will end crude's downtrend may be a top commodity question of 2026. A supply scare that spikes prices might fuel more of the same -- US-led Western Hemisphere production...
Gold and Silver Recovering
The episode reviews a recent rally in gold and silver prices, noting modest gains in Europe and unusually low trading volumes on the U.S. Comex market due to a holiday. It highlights the scant speculative interest and low open interest...
Gold's Parabolic Surge May Be Overheated, Reversion Likely
The Rock May Be Too Hot - Gold vs. Commodities - Inflation is notably absent from gold's parabolic rally, which may suggest a too-hot rock if history is a guide. From a base of 100 in 1964, gold in terms...
Brazil Imposes Anti-Dumping Duties on Chinese Steel
Brazil’s foreign trade committee approved five‑year anti‑dumping duties on a wide range of Chinese steel products after a 2024 investigation revealed pricing below market levels. The duties range from US$323 to US$670 per ton for cold‑rolled coil and US$285 to...
The Ultra Bull Case for Lithium (YJ Lee)
In this episode, YJ Lee, founder of the Arcane Green Metal Fund, explains why the July 2024 lithium price dip was a prime buying window and projects a conservative 4.6 Mt lithium demand by 2030, driven by a 33% annual growth...
Gold Buying Prices in Zimbabwe per Gram/ Ounce, 20 February 2026
Fidelity Gold Refinery published its February 20 2026 gold buying rates for Zimbabwe, listing prices per gram and per troy ounce across several purity categories. The fire‑assay cash price for gold above 100 g is $152.66 per gram ($4,748.26 per ounce), while the...
Navios Lines up $134m Capesize Duo
Navios Maritime Partners announced two long‑term bareboat‑in contracts for Japanese‑built capesize vessels, with purchase options valued at roughly $134.3 million and an effective 6% interest rate. The ships, fitted with scrubbers, are slated to join the fleet in late 2028 and...
GLD: My Second-Largest Portfolio Position, On Path To Become My Largest Holding
GLD remains a buy as its fundamentals stay strong despite recent price swings. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF has generated nearly a ten‑fold return since inception and now manages over $174 billion backed by 1,080 tonnes of gold. Retail physical‑gold sales are...
Interview with BFM 89.9 Malaysia 20.02.2026
In this emergency interview on BFM 89.9 Malaysia, The Macro Butler warned that a combination of rising oil prices and increasing unemployment could derail the Federal Reserve’s planned rate cuts in 2026, bolster the US dollar, and pressure retail stocks...
TWIFO 485: From the Equity Put Spread Craze to Meme Stock Metals & Crude's Inflection Point
In this episode Mark Longo and Scott Bauer break down three hot market themes: the surge in equity put spreads, especially the massive S&P 500 March 6600/6500 vertical and rising Russell 2000 volatility; the pivotal moment for WTI crude, where geopolitical factors...
Structural Conditions Set Stage for Multi-Year Energy Bull
The STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS are right for a multi-year bull energy market, says @ericnuttall That doesn't mean it's started or that it will be a straight line back to $90-$100 oil prices. Prices will remain volatile, cyclical, and politically distorted — even...
FERC Drops Western Soft Price Cap, Claims More Power
The price cap was put in place after market manipulations in 2001 (mostly in CA). FERC says it now has more power to prevent gouging, therefore the cap is no longer needed. FERC Eliminates Western ‘Soft’ Price Cap //www.rtoinsider.com/126212-ferc-eliminates-western-soft-price-cap/
Goldman: Gold to Grind Higher to $5,400/Oz by End-2026 on Strong Demand
Goldman Sachs projects gold prices to climb to $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven primarily by renewed central‑bank buying and modest private‑investor inflows linked to Federal Reserve rate cuts. The forecast assumes a conservative base case with...
Crude Hits 7‑month High Amid US‑Iran Strike Risk
Crude rallies to 7-month highs as market prices in the risk of US strikes on Iran. I spoke to @NDTVProfitIndia earlier today. https://t.co/NDv6pbwsZp
Oil Won’t Ride Super‑Cycle; Growth Slowdown Limits Prices
Beware of the "bull-run narrative" @Matalasdavid Oil's a risk asset unlike value commodities. It's unlikely to have a super-cycle trajectory. 👇 https://t.co/7PUYBWe4PR As economic growth slows, oil will slow. #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket
How Do You Modernise Mango Farming?
India produces roughly 23 million tonnes of mangoes annually, yet climate‑driven season shifts and rising input costs are eroding yields. Researchers at ICAR have sequenced the mango genome, accelerating breeding of temperature‑resilient and pest‑tolerant varieties. Farmers like Upendra Singh and Neeti...
US EV Charging Ports Jump 10%, Fast Chargers Rise 25%
U.S. ELECTRIC VEHICLE charging ports increased by more than 24,000 (10%) in 2025. More than half of the new ports were direct current fast-charging ports, which increased by more than 13,000 (25%): https://t.co/zEkOinhmj8
US NatGas Spot Prices Under Marginal Cost Post‑Vortex
U.S. Natural Gas in Post-Vortex Price Discovery: Spot Prices Below Marginal Cost $3.27 spot price was at least $1.80 less on the red curve & $0.90 less on the orange curve #energy #NaturalGas #shale #fintwit #oilandgas #Commodities #ONGT #natgas #LNG https://t.co/OIY9qxNzmU
Anglogold Ashanti PLC (AU) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Centerra Gold reported nearly $100 million of free cash flow in the quarter, driven by strong production at Öksüt and elevated metal prices. Gold output reached almost 82,000 ounces and copper 13.4 million pounds, while all‑in sustaining costs rose to $1,652 per...
Busan Deal: US Sacrific
The impact of the "Busan" deal is now in the trade data -- the US clearly gave up a bit of tariff revenue (lowering the tariff on China) for a bit of supply chain peace, and the prospect of...
Spend $33B on Flexibility, Not Idle Gas Plant
For $33B he could have solved the entire PJM capacity auction challenge with demand flexibility through 2029, but sure overpay for a gas plant that won’t run more than 20% of the year…
Civil War-Torn Sudan Sits On Unexplored Mineral Riches Worth Billions
Sudan, despite a civil war that began in 2023, is courting foreign investors to develop its largely untapped mineral portfolio that includes gold, copper, uranium and rare‑earth elements. Gold production set a new record of 70 tonnes in 2025, generating...
Gas Turbine Shortage Threatens Big Tech’s Grid‑Independent Power Push
With electric grids across the country already under strain, Big Tech is racing to build and deploy power generation capacity that’s independent of the grid. Indeed, the push for behind-the-meter (BTM) generation was a major theme of the PowerGen conference...
Storm-Powered Mega Draw: U.S. Crude Inventories Plunge 9 Million Barrels – Biggest in 5 Months!
The episode breaks down the sudden 9‑million‑barrel drop in U.S. crude inventories—the steepest decline in five months—driven by a powerful storm that disrupted refinery operations and boosted demand for heating fuel. Analysts explain how the draw reshapes the supply‑demand balance,...
Buy Newmont on Pullbacks as Gold Rises
Macro: gold up on rate‑cut hopes & geopolitics. Key: Newmont beat as realized $4,216/oz offset 24% output drop. Risk: output erosion, volatility. Trade: buy Newmont on pullbacks. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Market Watch: Nymex Dips Below $3 Amid Mild March Outlook
Nymex natural gas futures for March slipped 1.5 cents to $2.996 per MMBtu on Thursday. This marks the first time the prompt‑month contract has settled below the $3 threshold since mid‑October. Despite short‑term expectations of cooler weather early next week, analysts...
Spot Cash Electricity Prices, Feb. 19, 2026
On February 19, 2026, the U.S. spot cash electricity market posted a 3.2% increase in average price, reaching $58.4 per megawatt‑hour. The rise reflected higher natural‑gas forward curves and a dip in wind generation across the Midwest. Day‑ahead trading volumes...
Tongaat Hulett Collapse Looms
Tongaat Hulett, South Africa's leading sugar producer, is heading for provisional liquidation after its business rescue plan collapsed. The Vision Group's acquisition of lender claims and a debt‑to‑equity swap failed, leaving the rescue unimplementable. Cosatu warns the collapse will trigger...
SB Energy Tapped for Proposed 9.2‑GW Ohio Gas Power Plant in First Tranche of $550B U.S.–Japan Deal: What We Know
The Trump administration announced that SoftBank’s U.S. affiliate SB Energy will develop a proposed 9.2‑GW, $33 billion natural‑gas power complex near Portsmouth, Ohio. The project is the flagship of a $36 billion first tranche of a $550 billion U.S.–Japan strategic investment framework that...
Feb 19 | Commodity Week
In this episode of Commodity Week, Todd Gleason, joined by ag analysts Jim McCormick and Logan Kimmel, breaks down the USDA Outlook Forum numbers for 2026, focusing on corn, soybean, and wheat markets. They warn that old‑crop corn carry‑out could...
Ausenco to Lead Feasibility Study at Ikkari Project
Rupert Resources has engaged Auscenco Engineering to head the feasibility study for the Ikkari gold project in northern Finland, a multi‑million‑ounce development slated for completion by mid‑2027. The study builds on recent optimisation work that delivered over 95% gold recoveries...
Copper Prices Jump 44% Year‑Over‑Year
Copper prices have surged to an average of $13,012/mt in January 2026 from $8,991/mt a year ago. That's a WHOPPING 44% INCREASE. BUY COPPER, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/FIhvIikhjQ
MoneyTalks: Rare Earths Disconnect Creates Opportunity in Small Caps
Rare earth prices have surged about 42% year‑to‑date, yet most junior stocks remain flat, creating a valuation disconnect. Acorn Capital’s Rick Squire sees this inefficiency as a buying opportunity for ASX‑listed explorers focused on low‑capex, fast‑track projects. He highlights ionic‑clay...
Delayed Publication of Taiwan Steel Scrap
Fastmarkets announced a delayed release of the MB-STE-0464 price for HMS 1&2 steel scrap (80:20 mix) imported to Taiwan. The price reflects US material imports, CFR main port Taiwan, and is part of Fastmarkets' scrap package. The notice invites market participants...
US Strike Risk Adds Premium to Oil Market
Expectations of a possible US strike on Iran—currently oscillating between wait-and-see and watchful anticipation—have introduced a risk premium into an otherwise well-supplied oil market. My talk w/ @KellyCNBC @CNBCTheExchange https://t.co/XwyD5XmiRg
Canada Not a ‘Dumping Ground or Transshipment Hub;’ Section 232 Tariffs Unjustified: CSPA
The Canadian Steel Producers Association (CSPA) argues that the U.S. Section 232 steel tariffs are unjustified, noting Canada is not a dumping ground or transshipment hub. Since the tariffs took effect, Canada has lost roughly 2 million metric tons of steel...
Kazakhstan Thermal Coal Production Falls in Jan
Kazakhstan’s thermal coal production slipped 1.7% YoY to 9.92 million tonnes in January, while total coal output fell 0.7% to 10.31 million tonnes. Despite the dip, the government is rolling out a national project to add about 7.6 GW of coal‑fired capacity by...