Today's Commodities Pulse
Lower‑48 gas producers expand output despite storage surplus
U.S. lower‑48 natural‑gas operators are adding production capacity even though storage inventories remain in surplus, according to NGI. At the same time, spot prices are climbing as summer temperatures rise and LNG demand increases.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Fertiliser Price Surge Due to Iran War Coincides with US Planting Season
The renewed Iran war has disrupted urea and ammonium nitrate production, slashing exports and driving global fertilizer prices up roughly 30 percent. The price surge coincides with the critical U.S. planting window, adding $10‑$20 per acre to corn fertilizer costs. Traders report spot urea prices at multi‑year highs, tightening inventories across major ports. Farmers face tighter margins and may adjust planting schedules or reduce input use, potentially impacting the 2024 harvest.
Blockade Risks Spike Prices, Yet Market Already Priced In
Key pushback to a blockade is that it might spike oil prices. Iran's 2 million barrels per day could spike oil prices by 20% if they go offline, but - with Brent already up 60% from before the war -...
Gold Slides as Inflation Data Stokes Fed Rate‑Hike Fears
Gold prices slipped sharply after U.S. import prices rose 1.3% month‑over‑month, reviving fears of persistent inflation and prompting Federal Reserve officials to signal further rate hikes. The move underscores growing market anxiety over the Fed’s dual mandate.
Iran War Sends Shockwaves Through Energy, Fertilizer and Consumer Goods Supply Chains
The war sparked by Iran’s confrontation with the United States and Israel has closed the Strait of Hormuz, driven Brent crude above $100 a barrel and halted key fertilizer shipments, while India grapples with an LPG shortage that threatens millions...
Chevron Warns California of Historic Fuel Shortage as Diesel Tops $7 per Gallon
Chevron warned that California is on the brink of a historic fuel shortage after diesel prices surged past $7 a gallon, the highest on record. The company said it may cease refining in the state unless taxes and regulations are...
Gold ETF Showdown: AAAU Vs. GLD Expense Ratios, Liquidity and Performance Compared
Investors are comparing the newer AAAU ETF with the market‑dominant GLD as spot gold steadies around $4,500 per ounce. Recent data show gold ETFs shed roughly 62 metric tons in March, prompting a focus on expense ratios, trading liquidity...
Iran's Hormuz Closure Sends Brent to $104, Triggers Global Energy Shock
Iran’s decision to block the Strait of Hormuz has driven Brent crude up to $104 a barrel, a 40% jump since the war began, while roughly 2,000 vessels remain stranded. The move fuels a price surge, a de‑facto toll‑booth regime...
EPA Issues Temporary E15 Gasoline Waiver to Ease $4‑plus Pump Prices
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, led by Administrator Lee Zeldin, approved a short‑term waiver permitting nationwide sales of E15 gasoline from May 1 to May 20. The move targets near‑$4‑per‑gallon pump prices that have surged amid the Iran war, while sparking debate...
The Iran War Is Hitting Every Node in the LNG Supply Chain
The ongoing war in Iran is disrupting every node of the regional liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply chain, choking exports from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. With Gulf output curtailed, European and Asian buyers are forced to vie for...
Listen: Can Europeans Actually Reduce Our Gas Consumption?
European households are grappling with soaring energy bills as gas prices remain high. The EU forced an 18% cut in gas consumption after Russia's invasion, surpassing its target, and experts now urge a repeat of that mandate. Alternatives such as...
How Accurate Were Farmers in Predicting 2025 Land Value Moves?
Canada’s Farm Credit Canada report shows farmland values grew 9.3% in 2025, matching the prior year’s pace but hiding regional splits. A RealAgristudies survey from October 2024 found only 36% of farmers expected any price rise, with most forecasting modest...
Barclays Sees 13–14 Million Bpd Oil Supply Loss From Prolonged Hormuz Disruption
Barclays estimates that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would remove 13‑14 million barrels per day from global oil supply, representing roughly 13% of projected 2026 demand. The bank warns that if the disruption extends into late April, Brent...
Fuel Shock Pushes Thai Fishery Close to Shutdown
A sharp rise in diesel to about 39 baht ($1.11) per litre—driven by the US‑Israeli war on Iran—has left more than half of Samut Sakhon’s trawlers idle and threatens to shut down Thailand’s multibillion‑dollar fishing sector within days. Thailand exports roughly...
Another Power Crisis
In this episode of Plugged In, the hosts examine how the war in Iran is reverberating through Europe’s power markets, reigniting price volatility and testing the resilience of the continent’s energy transition. Julia Demedag outlines Germany’s improved but still gas‑dependent...
ConocoPhillips CEO Warns Supply Losses, Infrastructure Gaps Will Drive Higher Oil Prices
ConocoPhillips Chairman and CEO Ryan Lance warned that the removal of 8‑10 million barrels per day of oil and roughly 20% of global LNG capacity is creating a tight market that will push oil prices higher. He said U.S. shale output...
Saudi Arabia Ramps Yanbu Exports Toward 5 MMbpd as Hormuz Disruption Forces Rerouting
Saudi Arabia is accelerating crude exports from its Yanbu Red Sea terminals, aiming for a 5 MMbpd target as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed by Iran. The East‑West pipeline linking Abqaiq to Yanbu can handle 7 MMbpd, but 2 MMbpd are...
White House Predicts Lower Gas Prices via Trump’s Oil Push
"We're going to see prices at the pump go back down," says White House's Karoline Leavit Trump's prioritization of domestic oil production will to it, she says Just like Drill, Baby, Drill that never happened for the last 15 months? You don’t offset...
RBOB Futures at $2.21 Forecast $3.15 Pump Price
March 2027 RBOB gasoline futures $2.21, implying $3.15 at the pump by the winter https://t.co/TkEv0pc6Zf
BHP Exec Says Energy Shocks Will Stall Climate Action and Strain Supply Chains
Geraldine Slattery, president of BHP’s Australian operations, warned that ongoing energy disruptions caused by geopolitical tensions are pushing nations to prioritize supply security over climate goals. The warning comes as oil prices have surged 35% and BHP faces pressure over...
Premarket VIX Spikes Far Beyond Oil Movement
Using premarket marks, this is Crude (USO) vs VIX. You can see the AM VIX move is high relative to the move in oil (red dot). Black dots are last 5 days. https://t.co/ZgBEOTzNOF
Taiwan Spends $600M Extra as LNG Prices Double
Taiwan spent an extra $600 million to secure LNG through June to replace lost Qatari supply 🇹🇼 💰 Taiwan’s Economic Minister said spot LNG prices are “about twice as high as long-term contract prices with Qatar” The island depends more on gas...
Dangote Refinery Leverages Middle‑East Crisis to Expand Africa’s Downstream Market
Aliko Dangote’s refinery has lifted its ex‑depot gasoline price to N1,285 per litre – its fifth hike in March – as the U.S.–Israel war on Iran pushes crude to $120 a barrel. The move deepens Dangote’s downstream foothold while sparking...
Fuel Subsidies Breed Artificial Shortages, Warns President Nanggaw
ONE thing President @edmnangagwa understood very early in his presidency is that SUBSIDIES create ARTIFICIAL SHORTAGES. Countries with fuel subsidies are already experiencing MASSIVE SHORTAGES… https://t.co/bpI2xgOqg6
Gulf Crisis Could Cripple Energy Markets Until 2027
The FAT TAIL for the Persian Gulf crisis Prolonged energy disruption & economic dislocation THRU 2027, says @ProfessorKaren That assumes the conflict is resolved in April or May
March 2026 Flash PMI Shows Global Slowdown and Inflation Spike Amid Iran War
S&P Global’s flash Purchasing Managers’ Index surveys for March 2026 show business activity edging closer to stagnation worldwide, with the eurozone slipping to 50.5 and the UK composite at 51.0. At the same time, input‑cost inflation jumped as Brent crude...
Iraq's Oil Output Falls as Storage Fills, Exports Stall
Oil production in Iraq down again because storage tanks are filling up and the country can't export. https://t.co/tyEDWv8Trb
Deal Won’t Quickly Restore Kuwait Oil Production
Even if a “deal” happens tomorrow, the damage doesn’t reset Kuwait Petroleum says full production recovery takes 3–4 months A ceasefire is just the start of a long, uneven rebuild #Oil #Kuwait #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis #SupplyShock #Geopolitics #OOTT #Markets
Goldman Sachs Lifts U.S. Recession Odds to 30%, up From 25%
Goldman Sachs increased its estimate of a U.S. recession this year to a 30% probability, up from 25% a week earlier. The revision reflects tighter labor markets, higher oil prices and diminishing fiscal and monetary headroom. Competing forecasts from peers...
Oil's Percentage Rise Varies by Currency Unit
Intro econ for NYT reporters, oil was priced in yen it would be going up more in percentage terms in yen than it is going up in percentage terms in dollars. The unit is just a convention https://t.co/zCOwmbyJQv
Gas Prices Spike, Heralding Inflation Tsunami Ahead
Gasoline is telling you what this war really means. Up $1.00 a gallon in just 25 days. It's the first wave of the coming tsunami of inflation #GasPrices #Oil #Inflation #EnergyCrisis #Iran #Hormuz #Economy #Geopolitics #War #OOTT
Meanwhile, Iron Ore Is Stuffed
Iron ore prices have plunged as the market reacts to ongoing geopolitical conflicts rather than fundamentals of the metal itself. Rising input costs—particularly energy and logistics—are squeezing steel producers, prompting a sharp slowdown in production. This combination has turned the...
Russia Halts Fertilizer Exports, Leveraging 40% Market Share
Russia stopped exports of ammonium nitrate through April to ensure domestic supply during planting season. Russia controls a massive portion of global trade in ammonium nitrate at about 40%. IT LOOKS LIKE MOSCOW IS SAYING SANCTIONS WILL HAVE TO GIVE OR FERTILIZER...
Asia's Energy Shock: War Disrupts Middle Eastern Supply
Good morning, We are in Day 26 of the war and Asia is reeling from the conflict as we are most dependent on Middle oil and gas. Let's talk about how Asia is affected by this conflict, a thread. You can...
Mixed Fortunes for DRC Minerals as Copper, Gold, and Tin Prices Decline While Tantalum Gains
The Democratic Republic of the Congo’s weekly mineral price bulletin for March 23‑28 2026 shows a broad slide in several key exports, with copper falling to $12,718 per tonne and gold dropping to $164 per kilogram. Zinc, tin, silver and nickel also...
US Examines $200 Oil Price Shock Impact on Economy
US officials are examining what a potential spike in oil prices as high as $200 a barrel would mean for the economy, sources tell @hlowenkron @SalehaMohsin and me, a sign of studying possible fallout from extreme scenarios for the #Iran...
Production Cuts, Cost Pressures Cloud War-Driven Commodity Windfall
Indonesia is seeing a surge in coal and crude palm oil (CPO) prices as the US‑Israeli war on Iran pushes oil to about $100 a barrel, prompting countries to seek cheaper coal and bio‑fuel alternatives. Newcastle coal futures have climbed...
The Oil Price Shock Could Make Italian Ice More Expensive
The U.S.-led war in Iran has sent oil prices soaring, pushing gasoline costs for a heavy‑duty pickup in Houston from about $70 to $90 per tank. Phrostibe Italian Ice, a family‑run mobile vendor, is feeling the squeeze, redesigning delivery routes,...
Recent Geo Political Events Have an Impact on Food and Gas Prices
Economists note February CPI showed modest food price shifts—beef remains high while chicken and eggs fell. A new conflict with Iran has driven Texas gasoline up 90 cents, a 38% jump, foreshadowing higher March CPI. The war threatens the Strait...
How Much Will America’s Oilmen Benefit From the Iran War?
At CERA Week in Houston, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told U.S. oil executives that the ongoing Iran‑Israel conflict is likely to keep crude prices elevated, creating a favorable market for American shale producers. The war has already pushed Brent above $90...
Venezuela Oil Output Rises to 1.1 Mln Bpd as Sector Recovery Gains Traction
Venezuela’s oil production climbed to roughly 1.1 million barrels per day in March, up from about 942,000 bpd in January. The rebound reflects easing U.S. sanctions, better access to diluents and a modest return of export flows, bringing output back to pre‑disruption...
DFL Spreads Near Spot, Strongest Indicator Despite Lower Spikes
Brent crude: - Flat price (white) - Prompt futures timespread (blue) - Dated-to-Frontline (DFL) spread (orange) All off their highs, but DFLs are both closest to the "real" spot market and they're trading nearest the high of the lot. In relative terms DFLs didn't get...
Grid Batteries and Electrification Ease Gas Shortfall Concerns
Gas shortfall fears pushed out again as grid battery boom and electrification take fresh bite from demand #energysky -- via Renew Economy: https://t.co/SIHv5tanVT https://t.co/F4npGu5RMq
Higher Moves in Soybeans, Corn, and Wheat
Soybean futures rose on fund buying and anticipation of the EPA's upcoming blending mandate announcement, buoyed by optimism from Middle East peace talks and a scheduled Trump‑China meeting. A recent Brazil‑China phytosanitary agreement is expected to smooth soybean shipments that...
U.S. Diesel and Jet Fuel Stocks Near Record Lows
Will U.S. diesel and jet fuel inventories decline to historic lows? US Weekly Oil Data: US Inventories, Exports, Imports, and Refinery Utilization (12 Charts). Link: https://t.co/9fNzVH20GN
Gold Drops 16% Despite War‑driven Inflation Fears
Gold plunged 16% after the war started. It should have surged on inflation fears and geopolitical chaos. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/sTSAg9gVNz
Closing Grain and Livestock Futures: March 25, 2026
U.S. grain futures closed higher on March 25, with May corn edging up to $4.67 per bushel and soybeans climbing to $11.71. Livestock prices slipped, as April live cattle fell to $234.42 and feeder cattle slipped modestly, while lean hogs...
Philippines Declares Emergency over Soaring Oil Prices
The Philippines have declared a NATIONAL STATE OF EMERGENCY. The Philippines imports 98% of oil from the gulf and gas prices have DOUBLED since the breakout of the Iran war. THE PHILIPPINES SHOULD SEND THE BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP AND NETANYAHU. https://t.co/bNdU01nHJI
Japan Minister Discusses War‑Driven Commodity Risks, Seeks Asian Stability
Delighted to meet 🇯🇵’s Minister of Economy, Trade & Industry Ryosei Akazawa @ryosei_akazawa We spoke about how the Middle East war is impacting oil, gas & other commodities, with particular challenges for Asia – and how we can work together...
Silver's Head Shot Hints at Deeper Weakness
The price bar in Silver today is something I call a "head shot." Head shots are often a sign of volume overcoming demand and suggestive of further weakness. I am looking for a tradable bottom in the support zone (yellow) $SI_V...
Resuming Hormuz Traffic Crucial Amid Iran War Uncertainty
My BNN Bloomberg conversation from earlier today for those who missed it. Talked about the state and trajectory of the Iran War, the growing physical-sentiment disconnect in oil markets, and how nothing really matters unless traffic through the Strait of Hormuz...