Today's Commodities Pulse
UK energy bills surge to two‑year high as Europe feels shock from Iran conflict
UK households are set to face their deepest‑unwelcome energy bill increase in two years as wholesale prices climb amid the Iran‑related war. Analysts say the conflict will push household energy costs higher for the first time across Europe.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Op-Ed: Copper Rally Masks Smelting Power Shift
Copper prices are hovering near historic highs, driven by electrification, AI‑related demand and limited new mine supply. However, treatment and refining charges for smelters have collapsed from about $80 per tonne in 2024 to near‑zero levels, with spot terms expected to stay negative through 2025. Governments in China, Japan, Europe and Australia are responding with coordinated procurement strategies and subsidies, signalling a shift in bargaining power toward the midstream. The result is a looming consolidation of smelting capacity that could reshape miner‑smelter dynamics.
Gold Dip Signals Upcoming Bitcoin Rally
Just like that, Gold drops to $4,850. I don't think this is bad, not at all. I'm bullish on precious metals in the long term, but in the short term, it comes back to its mean. I think we'll see more downside in...
Strait of Hormuz LNG Disruption Exposes Risks to Global LNG Supply and Asian Gas Markets
Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has constrained tanker flows, cutting roughly 20% of global LNG supply. The shutdown of Qatar’s Ras Laffan plant and reduced transit capacity have driven sharp price spikes across Asian and European markets. Approximately 90%...
Oil's Global Price Cracks Under Stress, Spreads Surge
Oil is a almost perfectly fungible commodity* with a single global price ... except during periods of stress Via JP's Natasha Kaneva, the spread between North Atlantic sweet light and the oil Asia normally buys has reached extreme levels * setting...
Iran Gas Strike Could Push Turkey to Import More LNG
An unintended consequence of the strikes on Iran’s gas fields? Turkey may be forced to import more LNG 🇹🇷 🚢 Iran sends gas from South Pars to Turkey via a pipeline (making up ~15% of the country’s demand) If that’s shut,...
Calm Breaks as Oil Spike and Inflation Shock Hit Markets Ahead of Fed
Markets entered the day in a low‑volatility mode as investors waited for the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. The calm evaporated when reports of Israeli and U.S. air strikes on Iran’s South Pars gas field sent oil prices sharply higher and a...
Diesel Tops $5 Nationally as Gas Inches Closer to $4
U.S. diesel prices broke the $5‑per‑gallon barrier, reaching a national average of $5.07, while gasoline edged toward $4 at $3.79. The surge stems from heightened Middle‑East tensions, notably the war against Iran, which have pushed crude oil above $100 a...
Fed Dot‑Plot Revision Boosts Dollar Amid Oil‑Price Dislocation
ING strategist Francesco Pesole warns that a hawkish revision of the Federal Reserve’s Dot Plot could strengthen the U.S. dollar, even as oil prices remain decoupled from currency moves amid the Iran‑related conflict. The market currently prices a single rate...
PPI Shows No $80+ Oil Days in February
Producer Prices - How much oil data (days > $80) is in this PPI inflation data? PPI vs Brent Move -- Zero days above $80 in this Feb PPI print—WTI cruised the entire month between $61–$67 (avg ~$64.50, peak 67.31 on...
Gold's 8% Drop Threatens Debasement Trade Momentum
Gold is now down 8% from before the war (blue). That may be due to the crazy run-up in precious metals and people locking in gains now that uncertainty is so high. But - the longer this sell-off lasts -...
Tungsten 2026: Geopolitics Sets Global Tone
The global tungsten market entered 2026 amid extreme volatility driven by geopolitics, export controls, and resource nationalism. China’s February 2025 export controls on ammonium paratungstate (APT) and other tungsten products triggered a supply shock, pushing APT prices from $900‑$940 to...
BCOM Nears Key Resistance, Mirrors 2008 Surge
Peak Inklings: $120 Crude, $6 Copper, $5 Corn, $7 Natural Gas - Up almost 25% in 2026 to March 17, the Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return (BCOM) is showing its diversification attributes. Will autocorrelation be avoided this time? In 2008,...
US Strikes on Iran Risk 5% Global Oil Loss
Iran produces 4-5% of the world's total oil supply, making it the 3rd largest producer in OPEC. The best case for this conflict just took a leg lower. At best, this ends in the next 1-2 months and the Strait...
Offshore Vietnam: Energy Imports Rise as Domestic Production Falls
Vietnam’s government forecast shows domestic crude production falling to 5.8‑8.0 million metric tons annually between 2026 and 2030, down from an eight‑year average of 8.6 Mt. Imports already rose 5.3% last year to 14.2 Mt, with roughly 80% sourced from Kuwait, now constrained...
US Abundance Could Cap 2026 Corn at $5, Crude at $120
$5 Corn May Mark a 2026 Peak Alongside $120 Crude - The December corn future (Dec26) stretch to almost $4.99 a bushel around the onset of the Iran war on March 9 may have peak inklings akin to Dec22's $7.66...
US Supply Surge Could Pull WTI Back to $53
What Stops WTI Crude From Reverting Toward $53? The December WTI crude oil future (Dec26), which becomes front-month just before the midterms, was at roughly $76 a barrel on March 17 and may revert toward $53. Before the closing of the...
Economic Signals – New Well Returns Rebound
The latest analysis shows new-well returns in Russia rebounding after a sharp dip, driven by the Iran crisis that has more than doubled Russian oil prices while the ruble weakens. Using the Marginal Well Model, the author demonstrates that the...
Natural Gas Likely to Stabilize Around $3‑$5
Natural Gas $3 or $5 Near Year-End? Risks Appear to Lean Lower - The second consecutive colder-than-normal winter pushed the front US natural gas future to a high of $7.83 per MMBtus in January, and the price near $3 on...
US Waiver Redirects Russian Oil to India, Squeezes China
Macro: US waiver shifts Russian crude to India, squeezing China; grades flipped to Brent premium 🛢️ Drivers: waiver, Hormuz closure, voyage economics. Risks: geopolitics, supply swings. Trade: buy Indian refinery exposure. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Russian Oil After Onset of Iran Crisis – Supply Potential
The Iran‑driven closure of the Strait of Hormuz has eliminated roughly 12 million barrels per day of crude from world markets. Saudi Arabia’s new 5‑7 mmbpd East‑West bypass pipeline eases pressure but leaves a sizable supply gap. Russia, sitting on idle production...
High Oil Prices Aren’t Inflation, Policy Is
The Oil Price Myth Everyone Believes Oil’s near $93 a barrel. War is a factor, but prices were rising anyway. Key point: Rising prices from a shortage ≠ inflation. True inflation will come from the policies we ramp up because of...
DA Seeks Fertilizer Supply Deals with China, Russia Amid Mideast Tensions
The Philippine Department of Agriculture is negotiating fertilizer supply agreements with China, Russia, India and Belarus as Middle‑East tensions threaten the flow of nitrogen‑based inputs. While the agency has already secured more than 80% of its annual fertilizer requirement, rising...
Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief
Overnight trading saw corn futures slip modestly, wheat rise, and the soybean complex trade both up and down. Fundamental drivers were scarce, with Brazil’s soybean harvest and safrinha planting progressing at divergent rates, while a dry spell in southern Argentina...
Market Talks: Challenges in Brazil’s Natural Gas Market
In this episode, Marcos Mortari and Lucas Boaquini, Business Development Manager at Argos Brazil Gas Markets, discuss the evolution of Brazil's natural gas market following a new legal framework that has increased competition and participation. They explain the emergence of...
EU Gas Buyers May Replicate 2022 Spending Surge
This is a key theme for EZ inflation/gas. The curve in gas suggests that EZ buyers hold their nerve, but supply is paramount. The longer it goes on, the higher is the risk that EU buyers will do what...
Gold Miners Near Support; Trendline Break Signals End
Miners $GDXJ vs Gold $GLD. Very close to support. Interestingly, only 1 of the last 5 corrections even reached the trendline. The end may be nigh. https://t.co/oK6drb2TpF
Mitsui Locks 40% Josemaria Copper Concentrates Offtake, Fortescue Acquires Cañariaco for $101 Mln
Mitsui & Co secured a 40% off‑take right to copper concentrate from Argentina’s Josemaria deposit, a BHP‑Lundin joint venture containing roughly 4.6 Mt of copper and slated to start production by 2030. The right was purchased from JOGMEC via a public...
WTI Nears $100: CEOs Weigh Impact
WTI is about to cross the $100/barrel threshold. Would love to hear from CEOs of US domestic producers about their calculations right now. $OXY $EOG $DVN $FANG Contenental, etc. #oil #IranWar #oott
Trump Tariffs Spike Diesel, Fertilizer Costs, Threaten Farm Voters
Trump’s tariffs and the US-Israeli war on Iran are sending fertilizer and diesel costs through the roof. Diesel is up ~$1/gallon in a week. Urea fertilizer has jumped from $470/ton to up to $585. This jump in cost spells trouble for Trump and...
Bunge Prices $1.2 Billion Senior Notes to Fund Debt Refinancing
Bunge Global SA announced the pricing of a $1.2 billion senior unsecured note offering, split between $500 million of 4.800% notes due 2033 and $700 million of 5.150% notes due 2036. The notes are fully guaranteed by Bunge and are slated to close...
Crude Stocks Rise, Distillate Levels Near Critical
🎯EIA: US commercial crude inventories increased by 6.2 mb to 449.3mb. Watch distillate inventories as they might decline to critical levels.
Iraq Reports Iran Gas Supplies Fully Halted After Offshore Attack
Iraq says Iran gas supplies have completely halted after attack on offshore field, INA reports https://t.co/tZ53tmRYVt
Global Markets Jolt as Iran War Escalates: Kharg Island, Energy Prices and Stock Volatility Under the Spotlight
Recent fintech developments highlight rapid innovation and regulatory friction. A new study shows traders are already profiting from stablecoin yield strategies while U.S. lawmakers debate the practice. Ortec Finance unveiled GLASS PRISM, a strategic asset‑allocation platform, as the U.S. pushes...
Asia Faces Demand Destruction as Middle Eastern Crude Hits $150
1/5 Where Is the Demand Destruction? tl:dr - Asia because they are reliant on Middle Eastern Crude oil, and it is now over $150/barrel. This is keeping (for now) the American and European grades "only" ~$100. (% gain since the war) https://t.co/A6Rk6TjszH
Energy Inflation and Oil Prices Discussed on CNBC
On @CNBCClosingBell with @jonfortt, I discussed energy inflation, oil prices, and #META. ➡️Link: https://t.co/JLN4ZioBDD (3/17/2026) @cwp_advisor #Oil https://t.co/90DlUz7eMz
Strait of Hormuz Is Chokepoint for Sulphuric Acid and Critical Metal Processing
The Strait of Hormuz channels about 50% of the world’s sulphur, a key feedstock for sulphuric acid used in nickel, copper and cobalt processing. Indonesia, which produces over half of global nickel, imports roughly 75% of its sulphur from the...
Oil Production Damage Irreversible, Prices Set to Surge
the destruction of oil and gas production has begun...now there's no turning back for oil prices. Once long-term damage is done, production won't return to previous levels just because hostilities cease & marine traffic resumes
Gold Dips Below $5k, Breaks 50‑day SMA After 146 Days
Gold has dropped below 5,000 and cleared its 50-day SMA for the first time in 146 trading days above the moving average. We haven't seen a bullish move of that magnitude (spot above 50 SMA) since March 17, 2008...Remarkable coincidence https://t.co/yoJTpSTTBz
The Price of Vassalage
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and QatarEnergy’s force‑majeure on LNG have removed roughly 20% of global supply, sending European gas prices soaring to double their previous levels. In reaction, EU policymakers are softening carbon‑pricing mechanisms and methane measurement...
Media Misreports Diesel Carbon Price, Overstates Emission Costs
The media's go-to on all things food supply chain related missed a 21c/L drop in carbon prices on diesel fuel, and wrote an article on the implications of the no-longer-existent carbon price on combustion emissions increasing to 29c/L.
War Drives Gas Prices Up 86 Cents, 28.8% Rise
Yesterday was day #17 of the war. The national average of gasoline is up 86 cents (middle panel) Or 28.8% (bottom panel) https://t.co/I26G2JAxHr
Markets Signal Persistent Oil Shock Beyond Short-Term
The market is gradually pricing in that this is more than a short-term oil shock. Below: white: oil futures curve, current blue: oil futures curve, a week ago orange: oil futures curve, 6 months ago https://t.co/8wQF3jaa8y
Carbon Diesel Tax Drop Disproves Linear Increase Assumption
Carbon price directly applied on diesel decreased by 21c/L from 2024-26. It was scheduled to increase to 29c/l. The Food Professor's math assumes that linear increase over time remained in effect. No, it's not the CFR or the industrial price,...
12‑Month Oil Futures Surge Past March Spike
Oil for delivery in 12 months is now way above its spike on March 9. Even if the futures curve were a market forecast of prices -- which as @Rory_Johnston will remind us, it is absolutely not -- that forward...
Shale Boom Turns US Oil Vulnerability Into Strength
As in decades past, high oil prices are causing fears of recession & pain at the pump. But the shale boom means the US now has the potential to turn a previous vulnerability to a source of strength. My latest with...
Japan's Gas Prices Surge on Conflict and Weak Yen
Japan's gasoline price hits a record high 📈⚠️ 🛢️ The Middle East conflict and weak yen are delivering a double whammy to Japanese consumers 👉 Japan depends on the Middle East for most of its oil https://t.co/NMJurOwuQM https://t.co/ivLXm4sdIQ
Bob Brackett Returns: War in Iran Reshapes Global Gas Flows
NEW ODD LOTS: It’s the return of the legend Bob Brackett @tracyalloway and I talk to Bernstein’s top commodities researcher about war in Iran and how natural gas flows are being reshaped all around the world. https://t.co/DlSfweVsgl
Silver Near Support, Oversold Yet Bullish for Juniors
Silver consolidating record run for 7 weeks now. Almost near uptrend support. Getting oversold. Selling volume drying up. 200 dma over $50 now which is great for the junior miners. $slv $gdxj https://t.co/kEtElzonWZ
Europe Swapped Russian Gas for LNG, Still Vulnerable
Europe's LNG imports have gone from 3% of gas supply in 1990 to nearly 50% today. We replaced Russian pipeline gas with LNG at record speed. But we replaced one dependency with another. That's why Europe is so exposed. Answer is transforming demand...
Goldman Sees Possible US Export Bans, Targeting Refined Oil
Goldman > While not our base case, we would not rule out US export restrictions. If implemented, they appear more likely for refined products than for crude oil.