Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Brazil’s Oil Production Keeps Growing
Brazil is accelerating toward becoming the world’s fourth‑largest oil producer, buoyed by its 2025 entry into OPEC+ and a massive offshore pre‑salt development program. The pre‑salt basins, which contain 81% of the nation’s proven reserves, are driving a 14.6% jump in crude output to 3.95 million barrels per day in January 2026. Petrobras’ $109 billion 2026‑2030 plan aims to lift production to 4.2 million barrels per day by 2028, potentially delivering over $42 billion in revenue. Low breakeven costs and ultra‑low carbon intensity are attracting both domestic and foreign capital.
FAPRI: E15 Expansion Could Boost Corn, Cut Soybean Prices
The University of Missouri’s Food and Ag Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) projects that expanding year‑round E15 gasoline could lift corn demand, nudging corn prices up 2 to 7 cents per bushel, while pushing soybean prices down 9 to 22 cents...
Iran Conflict Drives Oil and LNG Prices Higher
Oil, LNG Prices Spike as Iran Conflict Continues Ron Bousso, senior columnist for Thomson Reuters, discusses oil, LNG markets and the likelihood that Middle Eastern tensions will keep prices high. #IranWar #IranIsraelWar https://youtu.be/TyuJU-0pvIo
Missouri Farmer Says Growing Global Competition Makes Boosting Demand for U.S. Corn More Critical than Ever
Missouri farmer Brian Willott warns that Brazil’s expanding double‑cropping of corn and soy is intensifying global competition for U.S. grain. He argues that U.S. corn’s quality edge must be leveraged to secure premium prices and new export markets. Willott also...
Canadian Feeder Cattle Market Remains Firm
Western Canadian feeder cattle markets held firm for the week ending Feb. 21, with yearling prices climbing about $10 per hundredweight and calf values showing mixed movement. Improved short‑term feedlot margins bolstered the yearling segment, while unusually cold Alberta weather...
Nola DAP Re-Export Demand Drives Prices Higher
Re‑export demand for diammonium phosphate (DAP) at New Orleans lifted prices to $650 per short tonne, a 4% rise from the previous week. About 30,000 st were sold for re‑export, mainly to a Latin‑American distributor, while 170,000 t of DAP arrived at Nola...
LNG Shutdowns and Refinery Halts Complicate Global Energy Outlook
Middle‑East hostilities have forced Qatar to shut its flagship LNG export plant and Saudi Arabia to pause operations at its largest oil refinery, while tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly stopped. The disruptions arrive amid a global...
Prompt Ammonia Prices Jump at Inland US Locations
Spot ammonia prices in the US Corn Belt surged on March 2, with CF Industries raising offers to $760‑$850 per short ton at inland locations. The jump reflects strong pre‑plant fertilizer demand and a tightening nitrogen market influenced by the Middle...
Crude Oil And The War In The Middle East
US Oil Fund (USO) and Brent Oil ETF (BNO) are both rated hold as traders navigate heightened volatility from the Middle‑East conflict. Brent and distillate futures present greater upside risk than WTI, while seasonal demand backs gasoline and WTI. Both...
TPM26: Iran Conflict Puts New Risk on US Economic Growth: Yellen
Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that the Iran‑Israel conflict threatens to choke oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, sending crude futures to their highest level in over a year. Higher energy prices could lift inflation and undermine the...
Correction to Bleachable Fancy Tallow – Packer Chicago Prices and Fat Index, Fob US on February 27
Fastmarkets issued a correction for its February 27 pricing data, raising the Bleachable Fancy Tallow – Packer Chicago price from 57 to 58 cents per pound. The weekly tallow average was adjusted to 57.20 cents and the monthly average to 55.63 cents. The Fat...
Delayed Publication of Fastmarkets’ Stainless Steel Cold-Rolled Sheet, 2mm, Grade 316, Transaction Domestic, Delivered North Europe Averages
Fastmarkets announced that while the scheduled price publications for 2 mm grade 316 stainless‑steel cold‑rolled sheet in North Europe proceeded as planned, the associated average price data were delayed. The pricing database has now been updated to reflect the corrected averages. The...
Hormuz Shutdown Spikes Sulphur, Hikes African Copper Leaching Costs
The cost of leaching copper oxide ore in the Central African Copperbelt is about to get even more expensive. In the past few days a number of Middle Eastern Oil refineries have been attacked / closed. In addition, exports through...
Energy Set up for Volatility Near Term but Is Turning the Corner Long Term, Says Katie Stockton
Geopolitical tensions sparked a roughly 6% jump in WTI crude, pushing the benchmark above the $68 resistance level. The monthly MACD has turned bullish, suggesting a multi‑month turnaround for oil prices. Energy giants Baker Hughes and Exxon Mobil have rallied...
New Commodity Program Base Acres
The USDA’s Farm Service Agency will automatically add up to 30 million new commodity base acres for the 2026 crop year, making them eligible for ARC and PLC payments. Farms qualify if they planted or were prevented from planting a covered...
What Do Rising Oil Prices Mean for You?
Oil prices surged after US‑Israeli air strikes on Iran and the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei, pushing Brent crude above $80 a barrel. The conflict threatens the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil, adding a risk...
Midmorning Markets: April Natural Gas Contract Falls Back From $3 as Technicals Cap Rally
Natural gas futures slipped back toward $3 per MMBtu after early gains, as technical resistance halted the rally. The NYMEX April contract was rejected at $3.03, signaling market caution. Simultaneously, escalating Iranian attacks disrupted global LNG flows, adding geopolitical pressure....
The Hormuz Standoff: Global Energy Flow Severs After 'Epic Fury' Strikes
The Strait of Hormuz, a 21‑mile narrow waterway, was shut after a severe incident dubbed “Epic Fury.” The closure halted the transit of roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day, about one‑fifth of global consumption. Heightened tensions between Iran and...
Pro Farmer Podcast | How U.S. Strikes in Iran Could Impact Ag Markets
The Pro Farmer podcast episode released on March 2, 2026 features market analyst Hillari Mason discussing how potential U.S. military strikes against Iran could reverberate through agricultural markets. The conversation highlights risks to fertilizer imports, shipping routes, and energy costs...
JV Article: District Metals Advances Viken After Sweden OKs Uranium
District Metals is moving ahead with its Viken uranium project after Sweden repealed its uranium mining ban on Jan. 1, reopening the jurisdiction for the first time since 2018. The Viken alum shale deposit is touted as the world’s largest undeveloped...
New Space-Based Photovoltaics Industry Growth Driven by Commercial Aerospace, AI Power
Space‑based photovoltaics are poised for rapid expansion as commercial aerospace launches and AI‑driven data centers create new demand. Triple‑junction GaAs cells dominate today, but their reliance on scarce gallium, germanium and indium drives costs sky‑high. Industry leaders, especially in China,...
EU Leaders Told to Stop Fiddling with Energy Markets
Eurelectric’s presidency wrote to EU heads urging them to stop reopening the marginal pricing debate, warning that regulatory churn could jeopardise the massive investment needed for a decarbonised power system. The warning follows European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s indication that...
Oil Shock Threatens Inflation, Yields, Market Deleveraging
Markets are in risk off mode but NOT full panic YET 📉 $SPX $ES $NQ down 🛢️ $CL surging 🥇 $GC up YET 💵 $DXY strong 📈 $VIX rising Ras Tanura attacked. Oil supply at risk. Iran escalating. If oil keeps climbing, inflation comes back fast. If...
ABARES Confirms Record for Barley; Canola, Wheat Lift
Australia’s ABARES crop report confirms a record barley harvest of 16.33 million tonnes, surpassing the previous high of 14.65 Mt set in 2020‑21. Wheat production is revised upward to 35.99 Mt, making it the third‑largest crop after the 2022‑23 peak, while canola reaches...
Taseko’s Florence Mine Delivers First New US Copper in 17 Years
Canadian miner Taseko Mines announced its Florence Copper operation in Arizona has produced its first copper cathodes, the first new US copper output from a greenfield project since 2008. The electrowinning plant began commercial operations in late February, positioning Florence...
Hopes for Suez Canal Revival Dashed
Shippers including Maersk, Hapag‑Lloyd and CMA CGM have halted Suez Canal transits as the United States and Israel intensify conflict with Iran, fearing renewed Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Egypt estimates a $9 billion loss in transit fees, with canal revenues...
Asia’s Outlook Under Higher Oil Prices
Asia can currently absorb the recent oil‑price surge, but the region’s heavy reliance on imported energy makes it vulnerable if prices stay high. Japan and the Philippines source almost 90% of their oil from the Middle East, while China and...
Indian Govt Assures Fuel Availability, Affordability Amid Iran-Israel Tensions
India’s Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas reviewed crude, LPG and petroleum product supplies as Iran‑Israel tensions heightened global energy volatility. Brent crude surged to roughly $82 a barrel, prompting concerns over the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint that carries about...
Gold Holds Steady, Gap May Trigger Sharp Rise
Explaining the X post from last night for those who don't know my style: Gold price RIGHT NOW is where it was when I posted this LAST NIGHT Several things: 1. I poke Schiff whenever I get the chance bc he does...
Europe’s Gas Prices Surge 50% Amid Hormuz Tensions
European gas just posted its biggest one-day jump since the Ukraine invasion. Up ~50% as Hormuz security stalls LNG shipping. Energy shocks don’t disappear — they compound. Just when inflation felt contained, volatility returns. Cost-of-living isn’t gone. It was dormant. #NaturalGas #TTF #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis...
Support Montana's Palladium Mine for Economy and Security
US Senator Steve Daines on Montana palladium mine, in the wake of US tariffs on Russian supplies of the metal used to make semiconductors and other materials:
Oil Market Stays Calm Despite Ras Tanura Strike
Despite the strike on Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery, Aramco’s Ras Tanura facility, the oil market remained relatively calm throughout the day. Stay tuned. https://t.co/HzbD8gLZNn
Crude Drilling Targets Long‑running Pivot, Pressure Rises
Crude drilling into a pivot that’s been in play since 2006. Pressure builds here. $USO $USOIL $OIL $XLE $XOP $OIH https://t.co/g5XbBkgmCd
Iran Commander Declares Hormuz Closed, Threatens Passing Vessels
Iran commander says Strait of Hormuz closed, vows to hit ships trying to pass, report says: CNBC $USO $XLE
Oil Surges 8‑9% as Gasoline Climbs, Yields Steady
Oil jumping to 8-9% gains this afternoon.. gasoline futures up 12 cents. US stocks ~unch with the 10yr 3bps off the HoD.. now near 4.04% https://t.co/XkTx1P5k8G
Gold Bull Market Two Years In, Still Not Over
Today marks the day the #gold bull market is two years old (by the way I calculate them). If it ended now it'd be the shortest in modern history. Said differently, it ain't over and we must remain invested... https://t.co/UHqF9IBGvY
Tokenized Gold Offers Safe‑Haven Access During Market Closures
Tokenized gold provided access to a safe-haven asset when traditional exchanges were closed this weekend. My research paper updated today. @DukeFuqua @RA_Insights https://t.co/yA7PGaTTgf
Strait of Hormuz Crisis Halts Traffic, Tankers Brace
Strait of Hormuz Enters Active Crisis: Five Ships Hit, Traffic Collapses, Tanker Markets Brace for Historic Shock https://t.co/QozOvFyHte
US Soybean Inspections Hit Record, 65% Headed to China
🇺🇸Last week's U.S. corn and soybean export inspections topped all estimates. 65% of the inspected bean volume was to China. https://t.co/pdWgCErVIi
Wheat Export Inspections Outpace USDA Target by 57M Bushels
Marketing year to date #wheat export inspections exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 57 million bushels, versus 62 million bushels the previous week. #oatt
Germany Reverses Heat Transition, Reviving Fossil Heating
Just last week the German government gutted the heating law which was supposed to drive a transition away from gas. The timing could not have been worse: Gas prices are up 50% today & this crisis could worsen significantly. This will...
LNG Terminals Need Long‑term Contracts, Not Spare Capacity
Why on earth would Canada (or anyone) have that much spare LNG capacity? The reason many terminals weren't built is because they couldn't secure long-term offtake deals. No one was building terminals on a purely merchant basis.
Corn Dominates Export Inspections, Soybeans Second
Export inspections for the week ending Feb. 26 (mln bu): #corn 73.2, grain sorghum 9.4, #soybeans 41.8, #wheat 12.6 #oatt
Oil, Fertilizer Prices Surge After US‑Israel Strike
#oil & #fertilizer prices both spike following the US-Israel joint strike on Iran with the Strait of Hormuz essentially shut down. #oatt #oott https://t.co/wrY5JcnYwb
Gas Prices Spike 50%—Imported Fuel Dependency Exposed
Gas prices up by around 50% today. A painful reminder that relying on imported fossil fuels is a risky strategy. https://t.co/uXkWNMXbeQ
Critical One Energy Reclaims Full Control of Namibia Assets
Critical One Energy @Critical1Energy $CRTL.CA $MMTLF Regains Full Control of Uranium and Copper Assets in Namibia, Africa by @newsfile https://t.co/YGdKDhloWd
Gas Prices Jump
UK & European gas price benchmarks have both hit 12-month highs, jumping ~50% today after Qatar paused production in the face of Iranian attacks But it's worth putting this in perspective – we're a long way off the insane spikes we saw...
Strait of Hormuz Carries Significant LNG Alongside Oil
Very interesting > The Strait of Hormuz is not just oil - but also LNG. https://t.co/jlv7Hrp9LJ
War‑time Trade Lifts Commodities, S&P Teeters at 6785
Mostly red arrows around the world as weekend Middle East events have the “war time trade” in motion, with silver/gold/oil higher and $SPX futures -70. Key is whether $SPX holds 6780–6790 to keep the upper range intact, or if it...
Brent Climbs, USD Rise Temporary; Real Set to Rally
Brent has jumped to $79 per barrel from $72 on Friday. We're currently getting risk-off price action that's lifting USD, including against commodity exporters like Brazil. But that will fade and the Real will rally like it did after the...