Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Diesel Prices Rise Sharply, While Gas Increases Remain Modest Across the U.S.
U.S. diesel prices jumped 10 cents to $3.809 per gallon for the week ending Feb. 23, with the Midwest posting the steepest regional rise of 13 cents. The West Coast continues to lead in absolute cost, averaging $4.465. By contrast, gasoline edged up only 1 cent to $2.937, with mixed regional moves and modest overall change. The divergence places heightened cost pressure on trucking fleets that rely heavily on diesel.
WoodMac Warns of Lithium Supply Deficit by 2028
Wood Mackenzie warns global lithium demand could exceed 13 Mt LCE by 2050 under an accelerated net‑zero transition. Without new investment, supply deficits could appear as early as 2028, with gaps widening to 8.5 Mt LCE by 2050. Electric vehicles account for...
Jack Lifton Interviews James Deckelman on Deep Sea Minerals and the Strategic Push Into Seabed Critical Minerals
Jack Lifton interviewed Deep Sea Minerals CEO James Deckelman about the company’s push into polymetallic seabed nodules as a new source of critical minerals. Deckelman highlighted a projected doubling of demand by 2040, a widening supply gap, and soaring copper...
VLCC Rates Surge Above $420K, Highest Since 2008
Crude tanker rates in unchartered territory; VLCC index tops $420K ▶️Baltic Exchange’s TD3C MEG-China index assessed at $423,736 per day on Monday; TD2 MEG-Singapore index at $257,986 per day ▶️Global average VLCC index reaches $280,941 per day, highest level since at least...
Brownfield Exploration Gives Copper Supply Breathing Time
The rate of discovering new copper deposits has fallen by half over the past decade, driven by a roughly 60% drop in grassroots exploration funding. In contrast, brownfield and mine‑site exploration has supplied four times more copper than greenfield discoveries,...
Aramco Eyes Red Sea Route as Hormuz Tensions Rise
Efficacy of such a move @chigrl ? Aramco Explores Plan to Export Oil Via Red Sea to Avoid Hormuz The world’s biggest oil exporter has a 5M barrel-a-day pipeline that runs across the country which can transport oil from fields in the...
West Asia Tensions May Cloud India’s Coffee Export Momentum
Indian coffee exports are accelerating, with January‑February shipments up 40% to 80,931 tonnes and total 2025 sales surpassing $2 billion. The West Asia and North Africa region, accounting for roughly 20% of exports, is now a key growth market after Europe....
Low Equity Volatility Could Push Silver Below $100
Silver's $100 Ceiling May Be Solidifying - A key risk for silver and most risk assets may be the spike in precious-metals volatility and plunging crypto prices spilling over into equities. My graphic highlights why we view a rebound in equity...
Middle East Conflict Stokes Inflation, Risks Higher Rates
The U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict has triggered the largest oil price jump in four years as the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, sending crude markets into turmoil. Inflation concerns now dominate Treasury trading, pushing the 10‑year yield above 4% and raising mortgage‑rate...
Analysts Warn of Largest Oil Supply Disruption in History
Analysts at S&P Global warn that the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran could cause the largest oil‑supply disruption ever if tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz collapses. Recent data show only five tankers transited on March 1 versus the usual 60,...
Europe's Gas Reserves Plunge, Refilling Hinges on Middle East Routes
EUROPE has depleted its gas inventories faster than average this winter in the expectation there would plenty of LNG to refill them over the coming summer. EU storage sites are on average just 30% full down from more than 82%...
Gold Daily Call for March 3rd, 2026
Midas Touch Consulting issued its Gold Daily Call for March 3, 2026, projecting that spot gold will initially trade sideways before turning lower. The technical chart highlights a near‑term support zone around $2,050 per ounce and resistance near $2,150. The note cites...
Lithium Royalty Secures 1.5% Goulamina Spodumene Stake
Lithium Royalty Corp buys a 1.5% Goulamina lithium royalty in Mali, gaining long-dated spodumene exposure. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/goulamina-lithium-royalty-deal.html
ECB's Villeroy: It Would Be a Mistake to Predict Rate Move in a Hurry
ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy warned that forecasting a rate move too quickly would be a mistake, emphasizing that policy decisions will not hinge solely on volatile energy prices. He noted that France’s exposure to Middle‑East tensions remains limited,...
Iranian Drone Attack Halts LNG, Sparks Dual Energy Shock
🚨 IRAN WAR DAY 4 — A DIFFERENT SHOCK 🚨 Day 4 changes the calculus. This isn't just an oil story anymore. QatarEnergy — the world's largest LNG supplier, covering 20% of global supply — halted all production after Iranian drones...
Sugar’s Bounce Has a Problem: The Surplus Story Has Not Moved
White sugar prices barely moved in May 2026, closing at $407.7/tonne, as futures steadied above $400 after a five‑year low. Despite the tactical bounce, surplus projections for 2025/26 and 2026/27 dominate market sentiment, limiting upside. Brazil’s modest output dip and...
Qatar’s LNG Crisis: The Massive Geopolitical Risk Premium—And How You Can Profit From It
Qatar, the world’s largest LNG exporter, faces a supply crunch as regional geopolitical tensions and export‑capacity constraints tighten the market. The disruption has injected a hefty risk premium into spot and forward LNG prices, pushing contracts up 15‑20% year‑over‑year. Buyers...
South African Corn Output Down but Not Out
South Africa’s 2025‑26 corn harvest is projected at 16.1 million tonnes, a 3.1% decline from the previous record‑high season despite a 4.6% expansion in planted area. Yield variability, especially in key provinces, outweighs the acreage gain, while white corn output edges...
Dartbrook Gets Six-Year Extension
The New South Wales government has extended the development consent for the Dartbrook thermal coal mine by six years, now running until 5 December 2033. The extension secures the mine’s 6 Mtpa coal handling and preparation plant (CHPP) operations. The decision arrives amid...
DC's Limited Tricks Can't Stop High Oil Prices
DC won’t let high oil prices hurt Americans Good luck As @rory_johnston frames it, here are the options • SPR release (here we go again) • Sanctions relief on Russia (err... not great) • Gas tax holiday (2022 redux) You can’t print barrels https://t.co/3KCAj8NtGr #Oil #EnergyMarkets...
Florida’s Fields Are Hurting – What That Means for Reefer Freight Right Now
Florida experienced an unprecedented freeze from late December 2025 through early February 2026, inflicting over $3 billion in agricultural losses. Key commodities such as tomatoes, squash, and bell peppers saw up to 50% crop loss, while strawberries, blueberries, and citrus also...
VLCC Rates Hit New Sky-High Record: $424,000 Per Day
VLCC charter rates surged to a record $424,000 per day after the U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran, as the Strait of Hormuz was officially closed to traffic. Spot rates for Middle‑East‑to‑China voyages jumped well above $400,000, dwarfing the recent $100,000‑plus benchmarks....
EU Mulls Aluminium Scrap Export Caps Amid Rising Shipments
EU consults on aluminium scrap export limits as shipments rise and secondary producers face margin pressure. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/eu-aluminium-scrap-export-restriction.html
Valero Set for 1‑2 Weeks More Upside
$VLO rising to near nose-bleed territory in the short run, but w/ Crude likely to approach high 70's before a peak, i expect another 1-2 weeks of strength out of VLO before this stalls out @IBDinvestors @marketsurge Big push...
Gold Soars Again Following Latest War, While Silver Pulls Back
Gold futures surged roughly $100 on Monday, briefly topping $5,400 as investors fled to the traditional safe‑haven amid a new Middle East conflict. In contrast, silver futures slipped $3.62, ending near $89.80 after a volatile swing between $86.73 and $97.30....
Weak Asia, Surging Oil Drive Fast Market
Asia is weak, oil is ripping, we're in a fast market right now on The Morning Show https://t.co/jn2RN28AFk
Brent Jumps 14% as Dollar Strengthens, Markets Shocked
The Brent oil price is now up a stunning 14% from Friday and we're starting to see disorderly strengthening in the Dollar as the global risk-off builds. Even gold is down versus the Dollar at this point. This is a...
Reactions to the US-Israel Attack on Iran; Prepping for the Two Sessions; Science and Technology Insurance
The United States and Israel launched a strike against Iran, dominating global headlines as China prepares for its annual Two Sessions. Beijing’s response has been limited to diplomatic condemnations, mirroring its usual stance in such crises. Iranian crude accounts for...
Crude Price Threshold Needed for S&P 500 Rally
What level does crude have to trade below for SPX to go green on the day
Strait of Hormuz Traffic Impacted, Still Open
Here is the latest 7-day rolling number from the Strait of Hormuz. Impacted? Yes. Closed? No. https://t.co/paTmzStHh6
US-Iran Conflict to Cut Brazil Diesel Spot Deals
The US‑Iran conflict has driven NYMEX heating‑oil futures up more than 12%, causing diesel premiums at Brazilian ports to more than double within a day. Spot‑market diesel deals are expected to grind to a halt as import costs surge and...
Mid‑range Oil Could Push $10 Gas, Spark Homelessness
Crude Oil prices are at about the mid-point of a 20-year range $150 Crude is NOT NOT out of the question for 2026 With Gavin in power in California, $10 per gal gas is within sight All for homeless tents under every bridge...
Oil Spikes Signal Deflationary Shock, Not Inflation
Everyone assuming the Oil move is inflationary. An Oil spike historically more often than not precedes equity tail events and economic recessions. Why? Speed of Oil move is deflationary shock.
Australia Doubles Down on Manufacturing with Critical Minerals Rise
The Australian Government’s 2025 edition of Australia’s Identified Mineral Resources (AIMR) highlights a surge in critical mineral reserves and production, reinforcing the nation’s role as a reliable supplier for high‑tech manufacturing, defence and clean‑energy sectors. Eleven critical minerals, including fluorine,...
Gold Potentially Forming Classic Edwards-Magee Pattern
For those into proper Edwards and Magee charting (not this modern day junk), this could be what is happening to Gold https://t.co/9oNZBtZmkg
Europe Faces Looming Energy Crisis: Key Takeaways
What does the potentially emerging energy crisis mean for Europe? Yesterday I was in a media briefing with 75 journalists. Here is a snippet of what I told them. https://t.co/3dT441Yllq
Oil Holds Gain as Traders Brace for Fresh Attacks in Middle East
Oil prices continued to rise as the United States and Israel escalated military actions against Iran, prompting Tehran to threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz and launch drone attacks on the U.S. embassy in Riyadh. Brent crude climbed above...
2022 Traders Rediscovered JKM‑Equity Link Amid Gas Surge
Everyone that traded during 2022 just collectively remembered the relationship between JKM and Japanese/Korean Equities that we all forgot when natural gas prices were calm.
China's Oil Stockpiles Offer Buffer Against Price Spikes
“Can China act as a buffer? China has been loading up on cheap, sanctioned oil, putting some of it away in storage. In a report, analysts at Morgan Stanley said China could slow down on its purchases if oil prices...
Surging Oil Prices Could Derail Pakistan’s Fragile Economic Recovery
Oil prices jumped nearly 10 % after Iran’s retaliatory strikes, prompting JPMorgan to warn that Brent could reach $120 per barrel if Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist. Pakistan, which imports 85 % of its crude, faces a current‑account deficit increase of $1.5‑$2 billion...
LNG Supply Shocks Expose Energy Transition’s Fatal Flaw
Qatar LNG offline — unprecedented. U.S. exporters win, importers lose, says @seb_kennedy Ukraine & Iran wars expose a core flaw in the “energy transition” narrative. All energy depends on supply chains — break them, you break energy. No supply chains, no energy. Plan B? #LNG...
World's Largest LNG Plant Offline, Yet Unnoticed
Can you believe that all of the people down there are unaware that the world’s largest LNG plant is offline? https://t.co/nG6uMfgyuH
Venture Global Strikes Five-Year LNG Deal With Trafigura
Venture Global, one of the United States' leading LNG exporters, has signed a five‑year supply agreement with global commodity trader Trafigura, effective from this year. The contract locks in a steady volume of U.S. liquefied natural gas for Trafigura’s worldwide...
SQM's Price Signals Lagging 2026 LCE Production Growth
SQM’s quarterly price results remain a bellweather of the market price trend. The big question is how much higher will this quarter be? SQM’s 2026 LCE production won’t come close to the market growth for the year. Let...
Oil Shock Math Reveals Dwindling Exporter Surplus, Reshaping Trade
Some basic oil shock math, focusing on the impact on global trade ... Remember that we are starting from an unusually low surplus in the fuel exporting economies ... 1/ https://t.co/WIeQBspqCY
Revenue Protection: Soybeans Gain, Corn Lower
Revenue protection guarantees are rising for soybeans and slipping for corn as the 2026 spring price outlook solidifies. Soybean prices hit $11.09 per bushel, roughly five percent above last year, while corn settled at $4.62, just eight cents lower. Higher...
Wall Street Rebounds as Oil and Gold Retreat
Is the market already done with the US-Iran war? Wall Street erased early losses while gold and crude oil recoiled from panic highs. Now what? #OilPrices #Crude #Iran #IranWar #stockmarkets #Dollar #Macro https://t.co/sUv93zfPtT
Kharg Island Identified as Critical Oil Export Choke Point
Kharg Island is a 'choke point' for Iran's oil exports, says VanEck Funds CEO https://t.co/rI4JYhLG71
Israel Shuts Major Gas Fields Amid Latest Round of War
Israel announced a precautionary shutdown of production at its major offshore gas fields, including Tamar and Leviathan, as hostilities with Iran intensify. The move follows a wave of attacks on energy infrastructure across the Middle East Gulf region. Officials say...
Tanker Stocks Fall as Key Oil Waterway Shuts
"Sell the News" even works for tanker stocks when the most important waterway for oil is practically (if not actually) closed. https://t.co/1Blk1tLMqJ