Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Cocoa Slides as Structural Surplus Reshapes Market
ICE cocoa futures slipped to $3,165 per tonne, erasing more than 60% of the 2024 peak that topped $8,000. The International Cocoa Organization confirmed a 75,000‑tonne global surplus for 2024/25, the first in four years, while inventories rose to the highest level in eight months. Ivory Coast and Ghana responded with dramatic farm‑gate price cuts of 57% and 30% respectively, underscoring the supply shock. Meanwhile, European and Asian grindings fell 8% and 5% year‑on‑year, and Barry Callebaut reported a 22% sales decline, weakening demand fundamentals.
Italy, Spain Set Solar Records in March
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting reported that weekly average electricity prices fell across most major European markets, with the average dipping below €90 ($103) per MWh in seven countries. Record‑low prices of €0.18/MWh ($0.21) were logged in Portugal and Spain, the latter...
Strait Talk: Crisis in the Gulf
In this episode Tom Reid of Argus discusses the escalating Hormuz crisis with Dubai‑based colleagues Nada Itayim and Bashar al‑Halabi. They examine the U.S. deployment of the USS Tripoli, the strategic importance of Iran’s Kharg Island as a major oil export...
Ukraine’s New-Crop Grain Offered without Usual Discount to Old-Crop Prices
Ukraine’s new‑crop grain prices are trading virtually level with, or even above, old‑crop values – a rare deviation from the usual discount. New‑crop 11.5% wheat is offered at $234 /tonne FOB, just $2 below the $236 /tonne old‑crop level, while new‑crop corn...
Southeast Asia Braces for Fertilizer Shortages as Prices Spike on Iran War
Southeast Asian nations are confronting looming fertilizer shortages as global prices have surged sharply following the outbreak of war in Iran. The region relies on more than three‑quarters of its nitrogen‑based fertilizers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, making it...
Fuelling Up: The New ‘Obsession’ Drawing Singaporeans to Malaysia’s Johor
Sharp spikes in Singapore’s fuel prices, driven by the Middle East conflict, have made RON97 petrol nearly twice as expensive as in Malaysia’s Johor Bahru (US$2.64 vs US$1.27 per litre). Singapore drivers, bound by a law requiring tanks to be...
Why Chocolate Costs so Much Now, when Cocoa’s Price Is at a Three‑year Low
Chocolate prices remain high this Easter despite cocoa falling to a three‑year low of about $3,165 per ton. The lag is due to manufacturers still drawing on cocoa inventories purchased at peak prices and to rising costs in packaging, oil,...
Oil-Thirsty Asian Nations Seek Russian Crude as Iran War Strains Supplies
Asian nations are scrambling for Russian crude as the U.S.-Israel war with Iran has cut roughly one‑fifth of global oil supply, especially through the Strait of Hormuz. The United States temporarily eased sanctions on Russian shipments, first for India and...
FTSE 100 Live: Stocks Inch up; Fuel Shortage Fears Hit Airlines; Unilever Nears Food Deal
Oil prices surged in March, with Brent crude climbing over 51% since February and staying above $110 a barrel, marking the largest monthly gain on record. The spike follows the outbreak of war in Iran and heightened threats to the...
Farm Action’s Letter to Congress, Lambasting the Concentration of Fertilizer Makers and Its Impact on Prices
Farm Action, a farmer‑led watchdog, warned that a handful of firms dominate U.S. fertilizer production, with four companies controlling 82% of nitrogen, two firms holding 90% of phosphate and 75% of potash. The organization argues that this concentration lets supply...
China Wheat Auction Clearance Rate Increases
China’s domestic wheat auctions under the minimum‑price program have accelerated, with a year‑to‑date clearance rate of 79.5% and a perfect 100% clearance on the March 18 auction. Average sale prices rose to ¥2,441 per tonne (about $354), reflecting strong demand from...
'Burn It Down': Destruction Of Persian Gulf Energy & Fertilizer Production Capacity
Energy analyst Anas Alhajji warns that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has dramatically increased the risk and cost of Gulf oil and LNG, making U.S. exports far more competitive. Insurance shortages force LNG carriers to detour around Africa,...
Russian Tanker Delivers $84 M of Oil to Cuba Amid U.S. Blockade
A Russian tanker, the Anatoly Kolodkin, arrived in Matanzas with 730,000 barrels of Urals crude worth about $84 million, marking the first oil shipment to Cuba since January. President Trump’s decision to allow the delivery breaks a two‑month U.S. fuel blockade,...
US‑Israel Conflict Triggers Asian Fertilizer Plant Shutdowns
Negative food consequences continue to unfold from the US/Israel War on Iran. Asian fertilizer plants are shutting in production.
Solar Power Stays Cheap; Oil Prices Soar Dramatically
Solar energy hasnt had a price hike in 4.5 billion years. Meanwhile, oil has shot up over $100/barrel today and will likely set a new record high for a second time in 4 years above $150/barrel.
Oil Jumps Above $115 After Drone Strike on Kuwaiti Tanker
Crude oil prices jumped above $115 per barrel after a drone attack struck a Kuwaiti‑flagged tanker transiting the Red Sea. The incident heightened concerns over potential supply disruptions in a key shipping corridor, prompting traders to bid up Brent and...
Strait Closure Spikes Gas Prices, Fuels Global Supply Shortages
The longer the strait remains closed, the more it will roil the global economy and boost gas prices. Multiple countries, including U.S. allies, are reeling from the downturn in energy supply that once flowed freely through the chokepoint. Industries that...
European Gas Prices Dip, Still 75% Above Pre‑War
The European benchmark natural gas price (TTF) is today **lower** than four weeks ago. Yup: Lower. (And yes, TTF prices are still up >75% from pre-war levels, but around the same level as they were in Jan-Feb 2025)
State Street Bridgewater All‑Weather ETF Posts 15% First-Year Return Amid Mixed Markets
State Street and Bridgewater launched the All‑Weather ETF on March 5, 2025. The fund delivered a 15.1% total return through the end of 2025, lagging the global equity benchmark by about five points, and has posted a modest sub‑2% gain year‑to‑date in...
US Gas Prices Top $4 Gallon, First Since 2022
CHART OF THE DAY: The US gasoline national average retail price has risen above $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022, per the @AAA_Travel. It's the kind of price level that typically has triggered political alarms inside the...
Gas Price Surge Threatens UK Cucumber, Tomato Supply
UK growers warn of cucumber and tomato shortages as gas prices surge https://t.co/5zu3EIyUuM via @ft
How A Magnet Shortage Could Bring The $10 Trillion Tech Sector to a Halt
Rare‑earth permanent magnets, essential for defense, automotive and consumer tech, are overwhelmingly produced in China—90% of processing and 93% of magnet manufacturing. A 2025 export restriction caused Ford to halt Explorer production, highlighting the fragility of the supply chain. REalloys...
Managed Money's Oil Options Net Long 50× Average
Goldman Sachs on the oil options market: “… The rally has spread beyond the spot crude market, with net long options managed money positioning 50 times higher than its 10-year average as investors bought options with strikes as high as $450...
Asia's Coal Prices Surge as Gas Supply Tightens
Asia's coal benchmark is at a 17-month high as Middle East conflict chokes gas supplies 🪨⚠️ Australian Newcastle coal futures for April hit $144.25/ton on Monday (the March contract expired Friday at $135.60) Asian countries are expanding use of coal to cut...
Fuel Relief or Fuel Risk?
The Australian government’s planned fuel excise cut, worth about 26 cents per litre (≈ 0.18 USD), is expected to lower pump prices. However, analysts warn that in a tight, just‑in‑time supply chain, the sudden price drop could spark a rapid surge in consumer...
Coal and Gas Misreporting Demands Urgent Safeguard Reset
Industry pays while coal and gas “cook the books:” Modelling reveals urgent need for Safeguard reset #energysky -- via Renew Economy: https://t.co/RTGGCweptA https://t.co/i7sUJmUIt0
Monthly Oil Draw Hits Quarter‑billion Barrels, Chart Dips
According to Gemini this figure is now below the y-axis from @Rory_Johnston's chart. 495 Million barrels so a quarter billion barrel draw in a month https://t.co/PEEyloJs9H
Pundits Fret over Oil Prices as War Widens
Houthi rebels have entered the Middle East war, raising concerns over oil supply disruptions. Brent crude rose to $116.75 per barrel and WTI topped $100 as the rebels threatened to close the Bab al‑Mandab strait, which handles about 6 million barrels...
War on Iran Could Spike Asian LNG Prices 57%
Because of the US-Israeli war on Iran, Goldman Sachs projects that LNG will be 57% more expensive in Asia by 2028. US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = MASSIVE COLLATERAL DAMAGE. Send the bill for damages to Trump and Netanyahu. https://t.co/zGDQ6V7G5Z
WA Iron Ore Mines Face Diesel Crisis in 10 Days
WA’s most labour-intensive iron ore mines could be just 10 days away from diesel supply catastrophe https://t.co/5djcT6LMSY
Oil Turns Lower on Report US May End War Without Hormuz Opening
Iran struck a fully‑laden Kuwaiti tanker in Dubai, igniting a fire and damaging the hull. The attack pushed West Texas Intermediate futures up almost 4% to around $107 a barrel and Brent crude near $115. President Donald Trump responded with...
US Crude Tops $100, Drags Asia‑Pacific Markets Lower
JUST IN: U.S. crude oil surges past $100 for the first time since 2022, dragging Asia-Pacific markets lower.
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PANIC AT THE PUMPS: Fuel Supply Woes Persist as Government Reassurances Fail to Ease Motorists’ Fears
The Fuels Industry Association of South Africa says overall fuel supply is stable but diesel is tight ahead of the April 1 2026 price adjustment. A planned shutdown of the Cape Town refinery, set for mid‑April, will rely on imports and is...
Sheep Slaughter Tightens, Lambs Mixed
Australia’s sheep slaughter volumes are contracting sharply across most major producing states as the post‑spring drawdown accelerates, while lamb processing shows a mixed picture. In New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia sheep throughput fell from 37‑47% to as low...
US Methanol Price Climbs to 4-Year High
US methanol spot prices hit a four‑year high of 135 cents per US gallon for April delivery, up 10 cents from the previous week. The surge follows a March‑long rally driven by the war in the Middle East Gulf, which has disrupted...
Four IOCs Working on Lithium Extraction in US Smackover Play
After a 90% plunge in lithium carbonate prices from 2022 to 2025, U.S. brine projects in the Smackover Formation stalled, but a recent price rebound has revived interest. Equinor has secured an anchor off‑taker, while Exxon Mobil, Occidental Petroleum and Chevron...
US Oil Tops $100 as War With Iran Escalates
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $102.88 per barrel on March 30, the first time it crossed the $100 mark since the U.S. and Israel launched a war against Iran. The surge follows President Donald Trump’s threats to target Iranian...
War in Middle East Drives Inflation and Slower Growth
A stark message from the IMF: "Although the war could shape the global economy in different ways, all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth." https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/03/30/how-the-war-in-the-middle-east-is-affecting-energy-trade-and-finance #economy #markets #growth #inflation @the_imf
Oil Wavers, Stocks Fall on Mixed Signals in Middle East Talks
Oil prices swung sharply on Monday as mixed signals emerged from U.S.–Iran negotiations, with Brent crude ranging between $111 and $115 per barrel and WTI holding near $104. U.S. equities slipped 0.4%, extending a five‑week decline, while European markets edged...
Middle East Production Offline: Current Status, Restart Timelines, and Well Damage Risk
More crude oil is offline across the Middle East than ever before, with roughly 7 million barrels per day shut in due to conflict‑related damage and precautionary curtailments. The blog analyses restart timelines, highlighting that infrastructure repairs and well damage could...
Oil Surge Fuels Bearish Shift Amid Fed Uncertainty
Back to the market. Oil is surging, volatility is expanding, and sentiment is quickly turning bearish—that’s your first clue. When fear spreads wildly, you have to start thinking contrary. But let’s be clear: Powell has signaled he’s on hold until...
China Suppliers Warn of Higher Prices for Americans Due to Strait of Hormuz Closure
Chinese exporters warned that U.S. buyers will face higher prices as oil price volatility, sparked by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, raises costs for petro‑based plastics. Manufacturers such as Huijin Trade have already lifted...
Energy Markets Under Pressure: Supply Bottlenecks and Rising Costs
🌳Saudi Exports, Houthis, and the Bab el Mandeb Bottleneck 🌳Russia LNG Exports Set to Hit Record High Egypt’s Challenges: Typical of Every Developing Country 🌳Shipping Rates Are Up Again – Here’s Why King Coal: For How Long? 🌳EU Oil and Gas Pinch: The Never-Ending Crisis 🌳Cuba...
Iran Conflict Triggers Worldwide Fertilizer Crunch, Hikes Food Prices
The war in Iran sparks a global fertilizer shortage and threatens food prices https://t.co/xpr9UOnHTZ via @mySA
Strait of Hormuz Blockade Cuts 28 Mt LNG, Drives Asian Power Generators Back to Coal
A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has removed roughly 28 million tonnes of Middle‑Eastern LNG from the market, forcing major Asian economies to react by re‑activating coal‑fired power. The shift threatens industrial output, fuels price spikes and could stall regional...
Cramer Predicts Oil Peak, yet $200 Looming
Jim Cramer says oil prices have topped. Bad news, I’m afraid oil is officially going to $200!
The Real Oil Crisis Is Still Waiting to Begin
Why the Real Oil Crisis Hasn’t Started Yet #energysky -- via Heatmap News https://t.co/Ngf3zAyeSS https://t.co/gyEcJO0VT9
German Inflation Jumps to 2.7% in March, Stoking Euro Stock Volatility
Germany's consumer price index surged to 2.7% year‑on‑year in March, driven by a rebound in energy prices, prompting the DAX to slip marginally after a near‑12‑month low. The data heightens market scrutiny of the European Central Bank’s next moves and...
Middle East Jet Fuel Shipments to Europe Nearing Depletion
JET FUEL from Middle East to Europe set to dry up as last cargoes arrive: https://t.co/EBGhhiM04W
BOJ Flags Inflation Upside From Oil Surge and Weak Yen, Eyes Rate Hike
The Bank of Japan warned that higher global oil prices and a persistently weak yen are amplifying upside inflation risks, potentially forcing a policy rate increase toward 1.5%. The staff paper signals that corporate pricing flexibility and tighter labour markets...