Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Copper & Gold: Pricing the Physical vs the Narrative with Grant Sporre (Episode 300!)
In this episode, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Grant Sporer breaks down the physical supply chains of copper and gold, explaining mining, processing, and tradable forms while highlighting the dominant role of China in copper smelting. He contrasts copper’s industrial demand—driven by the energy transition and grid upgrades—with gold’s status as a store of value, and shows how divergent narratives shape their pricing. Sporer notes that copper demand is growing at 2‑4% annually, outpacing mine supply, which is struggling to keep up due to long development timelines of 15‑20 years. The discussion underscores the tension between real‑world supply constraints and investor‑driven price narratives.
Food Exports Poised to Drop by over 7%
Thai food exports are projected to fall 7.3% year‑on‑year to 1.4 trillion baht (about $39 billion), potentially hitting a five‑year low. The first quarter is expected to plunge 11.5% to 306 billion baht ($8.6 billion) as Middle‑East conflicts disrupt Gulf shipments and re‑exports via...
Crude Futures Close Memorable March in Decline
Crude oil futures ended March with a modest daily decline but posted robust monthly gains, driven by heightened geopolitical tension. The ongoing war in the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have constrained supply and...
Oil Prices, Mar. 31, 2026
On March 31, 2026, global crude oil prices edged higher, with Brent crude closing near $85 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) around $80. The rise reflected OPEC+’s decision to extend voluntary output cuts and a modest draw...
Chile’s Copper Production Falls to Nine-Year Low, Highlighting Global Supply Pressures
Chile reported its lowest monthly copper output in almost nine years, producing 378,554 metric tons in February 2026 – an 8.5% decline from January and 4.8% lower than a year earlier. The drop marks the smallest monthly figure since a...
Market Watch: May Nymex Contract Inches Lower
May natural‑gas futures slipped slightly, closing at $2.884 per million British thermal units after peaking at $2.977 on Tuesday. Analysts attribute the dip to record U.S. production and a seasonal warming trend. Demand estimates show residential and commercial consumption at...
Comparative Fuels, Mar. 31, 2026
Energy Intelligence’s March 31 roundup highlights a resurgence of LNG development, with Polar LNG unveiling a near‑shore liquefaction plant on Alaska’s North Slope—an idea dismissed in 2018. Egypt is accelerating upstream gas projects to relieve a regional supply crunch, while...
Famous Last Words: “Get Your Own Oil”
The article highlights that front‑month Brent and WTI futures have moved in lockstep since 2022, underscoring a highly integrated global oil market. It rebuts former President Trump’s claim that U.S. oil prices consistently diverge from world prices, labeling the view...
Oil Futures Slip Into Backwardation as Hormuz Bottleneck Persists
With the Hormuz Strait all but closed, the crude oil futures curve is back to the backwardation levels of the first few days of the conflict. The front contract is about $23 higher than the 9th contract, indicating that the...
U.S. Gasoline Prices Top $4 a Gallon, Sparking Stock Futures Rally
U.S. average gasoline prices rose above $4 a gallon for the first time in nearly four years, prompting S&P 500 futures to jump 1.1% and Nasdaq futures 1%. Traders are weighing the inflationary impact against hopes of de‑escalation in the...
Gold and Treasuries Funding Liquidity Amid Oil Backwardation
With only one ship passing through the Strait last week, the oil curve has remained heavily backwardated. Looking at the correlations below, we see that gold and bonds have been positively correlated (with both under pressure), and Bitcoin and the...
Fertilizer Matters EP44: Chinese Ammonia Market
In this episode, Argus senior reporter Denise Cheng talks with ammonia market editor Roof Sharp about the launch of Argus' new China FOB ammonia price assessment and the shifting dynamics of China's ammonia trade. China, once a major importer, is...
Sorghum Acres at Least Partially Impacted by Drought in Plains
USDA forecasts sorghum planting at 6.12 million acres for 2026, an 8 % decline from 2025. The drop reflects drought impacts in the Plains, with Kansas acreage cut by 10 % and Texas also seeing reductions. Conversely, South Dakota’s sorghum area jumps 53 %...
Macquarie Says Copper Is Oversupplied and Overpriced – by Frik Els (Mining.com – March 26, 2026)
Macquarie’s strategy team says copper is oversupplied and overpriced after a 1.5% drop to $5.47 per pound, roughly $12,000 a tonne. The metal has shed more than 16% – about $2,400 per tonne – from its January peak. The bank...
Northeast US Diesel Exports Surge to Europe
New York Harbor briefly became a net diesel exporter as traders shifted ultra‑low sulfur diesel (ULSD) shipments to Europe. A sharp rise in northwest European jet fuel prices created a price arbitrage window, flipping the usual discount relationship between European...
Hay Harvested Area Likely to Increase in 2026
The USDA projects 50.113 million acres of hay will be harvested in 2026, a 1% increase over 2025, suggesting a modest boost in national supply. State‑level data reveal mixed trends: Iowa, Missouri, and Wisconsin expand acreage, while Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska...
Daily Energy Report
The latest Daily Energy Report shows Iran remains the primary crude exporter through the Strait of Hormuz, while Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar have halted shipments entirely. Saudi Arabia has rerouted most of its oil to the Red Sea, and the...
Iran and Russia Profit as Oil Prices Surge Amid War
A month into this war: Iran is still exporting oil & to more customers Iran is making more money for its oil because prices are up Iran has effectively installed a tollbooth to enter and exit the Persian Gulf Russia is making more...
U.S. Gas Prices Stay Low, Unaffected by Middle East Conflict
U.S. gas market insulated from war in the Middle East U.S. gas inventories are on course to finish the winter close to the average for the time of year, which has sent futures prices back below $3 per million British thermal...
Gold Surges As Reports Indicate Trump Plans To End The Gulf War
Gold surged 2.6% on Tuesday, pushing COMEX June futures to $4,676.40 an ounce, while silver jumped 6.3% to $75.30. The rally followed Wall Street Journal reports that President Donald Trump is considering a diplomatic path to end the Gulf conflict...
North Aurora Gas Prices Dip to $3.61‑$3.64
Gas prices in north Aurora, CO along Tower Rd have relaxed to $3.61-3.64 after hitting $3.97 last week.
Silver Open Interest Hits Historic Lows on COMEX, SHFE
Extremely Low Positioning: Both #COMEX and #SHFE #silver open interest are currently trading at the very bottom of their historical ranges
Middle East Conflict Drives US Treasury Rally as Yields Slip 7 Bps Amid Oil Surge
Heightened risk from Iran‑related fighting sent investors into safe‑haven Treasuries, pulling the 2‑year yield down 5 basis points to 3.87% and the 10‑year to 4.36%. The rally unfolded even as Brent crude rose about 2% to over $100 per barrel,...
Oil $100 Baseline Becomes Permanent After Iran Threat
WTI pre-market: $101.84. Brent: $108. Up 47% for the quarter. Iran is demanding sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint for 20% of global oil supply. That's not a negotiating position. It's a line in the sand with no realistic...
Fuel Price Volatility Continues as Diesel and Gasoline Averages Tick Upward
U.S. on‑highway diesel rose 3 cents to $5.401 per gallon and gasoline increased 3 cents to $3.990, according to the EIA’s March 31 report. The West Coast saw the steepest diesel jump, up 29 cents, while the Gulf Coast posted modest declines. AAA’s independent...
Australia’s Jet Fuel Crisis Deepens as China Ban Hits 30%
Australia (which has declared a national fuel supply disruption) is deeper in to its jet fuel crisis 🚨 - For now, emergency supply is being routed from l US through the Panama Canal to Melbourne, Perth - but the route *cannot*...
Rising LNG Prices Threaten Terminals, Shift Coal‑Gas Dynamics
Higher LNG prices also putting LNG terminals at risk. There's upside and downside here. To the extent that these were driving coal -> gas switching, more downside than up. But if coal is also constrained, would boost renewables.
Hormuz Closure Could Push Oil to $300 Barrel
If Hormuz remains close the price of oil and refined products could rise to $200, $250, $300 per barrel or any number.
UK Faces Fuel Shortage Amid US‑Israel/Iran Energy Crisis
Prices at the pump? UK running out of fuel? What should the government and the public do in the face of the US-Israel/Iran energy crisis? https://t.co/dVMIfX1kI1 via @Channel4News with @mattfrei
Four‑Week Hormuz Closure Halts Critical Petrochemical Shipments
I can’t believe the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for four weeks. It seems like so much longer than that. Scarcely do I remember the last time petrochemicals, urea, helium and other fundamental components could safely transit to key...
Brent Crude Gains Nearly $50 Amid Iran Conflict
Brent crude prompt futures price, Iran-War-to-date. Up just shy of $50 per barrel over the past month. https://t.co/SERzQ38Bos
Brent Oil Awaits Breakout Above $112.1 Amid Overbought Signals
#BrentOil Comp Doji Candle and Sideways. Needs Breakout $112.1. Support $100, $91.8, $84. RSI 71.5 Overbought but can go higher. Top Bollinger Band $111.6. Midpoint Line $102.5. Bottom Band $93.6.
China’s Iranian Oil Purchases Become Risky, Costly, Contested
China can still buy Iranian oil, but every barrel now comes with higher military risk, higher shipping costs, and the threat of sanctions or interdiction. What was once a quiet $8 to $12 discount trade is now a fragile, contested...
EU Eyes Reviving Emergency Energy Rules Amid Iran Price Shock
The EU will consider reopening a set energy measures used after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine as the bloc seeks to contain a fresh price shock tied to the Iran war https://t.co/pGEqjvd4Uf via @johnainger https://t.co/oxM0l6weH8
Market Narratives Flip Fast; Update Your Thesis.
Q1 lesson: Cuts → Hikes. Stable oil → $112. Safe → Risky. Narratives flip faster than positioning. If you're still running January's thesis in Q2, you're not wrong in theory. You're just wrong in the market that actually exists. --- https://t.co/c8qhOLV3nI
China Ships Diesel to Southeast Asia Despite Curbs
China has exported cargoes of diesel and other fuels to energy-starved countries across Southeast Asia over the weekend, in what appears to be a signal of support despite export curbs imposed earlier this month https://t.co/Ho2QuntmBc
U.S. Corn Acre Forecasts Remain Unchanged Year‑to‑Year
🌽Remarkable to compare expectations and outcomes for U.S. corn acres, March 2025 versus March 2026. Almost a straight copy+paste in all columns..... https://t.co/HT5yWSIhC3
New US LNG Capacity Too Small to Replace Qatar Losses
LNG production in Qatar, normally ~80 mm tonnes, has been effectively OFFLINE since March 2. The new Golden Pass LNG export terminal in the U.S. will add only 18mm tonnes at full capacity. NEW SUPPLY CAN’T OFFSET WAR-DRIVEN LOSSES. https://t.co/tVmip8DsaM
Gold Surges as War De‑escalation Rumors Emerge
Gold rallies on rumors of a potential off-ramp in a war. Markets never cease to surprise me…🤣🤣
Iran's Hormuz Claim Locks in Permanent War Premium
$CL WTI pre-market: $101.84. $BNO Brent: $108. Iran demanding sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. That's not a negotiating position. It's a non-starter — and everyone knows it. The war premium is permanent until proven otherwise. --- https://t.co/DwGuXTrsgJ
Market Underestimates Q2 Corn Usage for Seven Straight Years
Even more interesting. This was the 7th consecutive year that the market underestimated second quarter implied usage for corn. Hmmmmm.
USDA Reports Lower-than-Expected Corn Acreage in May
Immediate report reaction: The acres weren't quite as expected, w/ most analysis pointing to lower corn acres. BUT has anything changed since USDA's survey, and by how much? This will be debated for the next 3 months, but these are...
US Cotton Plantings Surpass Forecast, Small Grains Lag
U.S. cotton plantings came in larger than expected and above 2025's area. All small grain plantings came in below expectations. https://t.co/QomfLCsn7M
U.S. Wheat Plantings Hit Record Lows Since 1919
U.S. wheat plantings come in lower than analysts expected across all categories. 2026 all wheat acres are set to hit an all-time low in records back to 1919. Spring wheat acres are seen at a 56-year low. https://t.co/EX4kMnksdH
Iran War Spurs Debate Over 95M Corn Acres
Now let the debates begin whether we will actually plant over 95 million acres of corn with the change in input prices due to the Iran War
Corn, Wheat Stocks Miss Forecast; Soybeans Exceed Expectations
U.S. March 1 corn and wheat stocks come in below trade expectations, soybeans come in above. https://t.co/99UWcvMgT6
USDA to Publish First 2026‑27 WASDE Balance Sheets May 12
USDA will release its first WASDE balance sheets for the 2026-27 marketing year May 12. It typically uses trend yields from its February Outlook Forum, and Planted Acres from its March planting intentions survey. As such, today's numbers should help...
USDA Data Expected to Surprise, Sets Baseline for Debate
There's a high likelihood of surprises from USDA today, and the acreage numbers will likely change by the June survey. But at least it will provide a baseline for the debate that will continue until January. #oatt
OPEC's Monthly Production Decline Hits Ugly Levels
Now we start getting the monthly average OPEC production numbers. And boy, oh boy, are they UGLY. Reminder: this is the *average* production decline m/m, the exit loss is even larger and that's where we'll land in the April data if this...
Indonesia Reinstates B50 Biodiesel Blend Amid War Risks
🇮🇩Indonesia will raise the blending rate for palm-based biodiesel to 50% (B50) from the current B40 on July 1, despite having scrapped this plan two months ago due to supply concerns. But war risks are now at the forefront. Indonesia is...