Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
The Iran Conflict and Fertilizer Markets: Why Brazil Faces Greater Near-Term Risk than the U.S.
The escalation between the United States, Israel and Iran has forced the Strait of Hormuz to close intermittently, tightening the global fertilizer supply chain and pushing prices to multi‑year highs. Brazil, which imports roughly 99% of its nitrogen, phosphate and potash, faces immediate pressure on soybean fertilizer purchases for the 2026/27 season. U.S. growers, by contrast, have already locked in most 2026 inputs and can rely on domestic nitrogen and phosphate production, limiting short‑term exposure. Consequently, Brazil’s near‑term competitiveness in soybeans is more vulnerable than that of U.S. producers.
India to Continue Buying Russian Crude Oil
Indian refiners will keep buying Russian crude oil after the U.S. 30‑day sanctions exemption expires on April 11, driven by ongoing supply uncertainty from West Asia and damaged regional infrastructure. West Asian shipments, which once supplied about half of India’s crude,...
Copper Claws Higher to Three-Week Peak as Investors Balance Iran with Chinese Demand
Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange rose to $12,845 a metric ton, the highest level since March 17, as investors weighed stronger demand in China against a fragile cease‑fire in the Iran conflict. The benchmark three‑month contract gained 0.6%...
The $50 Disconnect: Why Physical Oil Is Screaming While Futures Whisper
Physical oil prices in the North Sea have surged to about $147 a barrel, creating a $50 premium over Brent futures that sit near $97. The gap reflects a scramble by European and Asian refiners to secure immediate supply amid...
Cotton Prices Firm up Tracking Global Prices
Cotton prices in India firmed above the ₹60,000 per candy (~$720) threshold for the first time this season, mirroring a rise in ICE futures that reached 73 cents per pound. The Cotton Corporation of India lifted the minimum support price...
SA Platinum Exports Surge but Miners Face War Inflation
South Africa’s platinum‑group‑metal (PGM) exports jumped 13% in the first two months of 2026, driven by strong demand in China and Europe, according to UBS. At the same time, the ongoing Middle‑East conflict is raising diesel prices, adding roughly 80...
“Let Them Eat Cake”: Where Uranium Narratives Break Between Scarcity and Reality
Investor‑facing uranium coverage now leans on a familiar formula: structural supply deficit, reactor build‑out, energy‑security tailwinds and an inevitable "pinch point." The article argues that this narrative eclipses the hard question of which projects can actually obtain permits, financing and...
Corn Prices Poised to Fall on Iran-US Ceasefire Pact
Corn prices have slipped to a four‑week low as the US‑Iran cease‑fire removes the immediate threat of nitrogen‑fertilizer disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts at BMI, a Fitch Solutions unit, lifted their 2026 average CBOT corn forecast to 458.2 cents...
2026 European Gas Shock Pales Beside 2022 Crisis
CHART OF THE DAY: The European natural gas crisis of 2022 vs the 2026 (so far) mini-shock. The chart starts in July (both for 2021 and 2025) and tracks prices over 2022 and YTD 2026. Of course, full caveat: the Persian...
FMI Releases Statement on March CPI Food Price Numbers
The Food Industry Association (FMI) highlighted the March Consumer Price Index, showing a 0.2% month‑over‑month dip in food‑at‑home prices while overall grocery inflation remains 1.9% higher than a year ago. Core staples such as beef, poultry, fish, eggs, cereal, bakery...
Gulf Shut‑ins Suggest Negative Prices, Futures Mislead
Here's something to think about and chew on: The mass production shut-ins across the Gulf (~13 MMbpd) imply effectively negative crude prices West of Hormuz—otherwise they could and would still be selling to someone. But futures markets are "implying" (as far as...
A Record Jump in U.S. Gasoline Prices Is Squeezing Consumers
U.S. regular gasoline prices jumped 25% from February to March, reaching $3.64 per gallon, the steepest monthly percentage gain since the Energy Information Administration began tracking data in 1990. The surge is linked to heightened geopolitical risk from the ongoing...
Oil to Test Wartime Highs If Hormuz Standstill Drags
Oil could revisit wartime price peaks if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked until July, JPMorgan Chase notes. The market expects half of normal oil flows to resume by May and full capacity by June, but a slower return to...
ETS Price Rise a Risk if Iran War Prompts Gas-to-Coal Switch, Says ING
ING warns that if the Iran conflict pushes EU nations to replace natural‑gas with coal, the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) allowance price could surge, raising costs for energy‑intensive firms. The bank notes that the ETS cap is tightening and...
US CPI Set to Jump as Oil Prices Surge Amid Iran Conflict
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the March Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET, with analysts warning of a sharp rise driven by a 1% jump in oil prices to $98.6 per barrel amid fragile US‑Iran ceasefire talks. Futures...
Trump Makes History With Near-Record Energy Cost Surge
U.S. headline inflation surged in March 2026, driven by a sharp rise in oil prices that lifted the all‑items CPI to its highest level since June 2022. Gasoline prices in Southern California peaked at $6.79 per gallon, a local record...
Argentina’s 2026 Inflation Forecast Jumps to 29.1% as Middle East Oil Shock Hits
The Central Bank of Argentina’s latest REM survey lifted the median 2026 inflation forecast to 29.1%, a 3.1‑point jump driven by the Iran‑related oil price surge. The revision threatens the country’s recent disinflation gains and adds pressure on the peso,...
Italy Pushes Coal Exit to 2038 as Gas Prices Surge
Italy's parliament voted to postpone the permanent shutdown of its last coal‑fired power stations until 2038, up from the 2025/2028 deadlines set in 2017. The move, tied to a confidence vote, reflects soaring gas prices and a desire to keep...
Traders Place $950 Million Bet on Oil Falling Hours Before US‑Iran Ceasefire
Investors sold roughly 8,600 Brent and U.S. crude futures contracts – a $950 million short position – just hours before President Trump announced a two‑week US‑Iran ceasefire. The trade helped drive crude prices down about 15%, sparking debate over market manipulation...
US Oil Exports to Hit 5M Barrels a Day Amid Global Crunch
U.S. Gulf Coast crude exports are set to reach a record 5 million barrels per day in May, up sharply from roughly 3.97 million in March. Asian refiners are snapping up the cargoes to replace Middle Eastern supply disruptions, prompting a surge...
North American Oil Data Deck (April 2026)
The April 2026 edition of the North American Oil Data Deck, a 47‑page subscription‑only report, details upstream and downstream activity across the United States, Canada and Mexico. The deck shows petroleum liquids output slipped more than 1 MMbpd month‑over‑month, pulling total production...
Base Oil Prices Remain Elevated Since Ceasefire
Base oil markets remain under pressure despite the US‑Iran ceasefire announced on April 7. Group III spot prices have more than doubled in the United States and risen 70 % in Europe, reflecting the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which blocks...
What Can Governments Do when Petrol Prices Rocket?
Petrol and diesel prices in the UK have surged as Middle East supply disruptions push global oil costs higher. Consumers face record pump prices, prompting accusations of profiteering and calls for government action. The article evaluates three policy options—price caps,...
Fastmarkets to Launch Two Graphite Flake Exw China Prices
Fastmarkets announced the launch of two new ex‑works China graphite‑flake price benchmarks after a one‑month consultation that closed on April 6. The indices cover 94% carbon flake at –100 mesh and +80 mesh, with a minimum reporting size of 20 tonnes. Prices...
Australian Growers Urge Retailers to Accept Price Increases
The National Freshfood (NFF) Horticulture Council has sent an open letter to Australia’s major supermarket chains urging them to accept cost‑reflective price increases from fresh‑produce growers. Rising fuel, levy and freight surcharges – in some cases up to 65% of...
Weekly Newsletter 10 April 2026
Gold’s price rally has dominated mining headlines over the past year, prompting heightened exploration and production activity across the sector. Mining Magazine’s weekly newsletter underscores this trend while promoting its suite of premium research, including the 2026 Future Fleets Insights,...
Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief
Corn, soybeans and wheat traded in mixed directions as market consolidation persisted, with traders positioning ahead of the upcoming monthly WASDE report and the weekend. Geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, especially the ongoing Israel‑Lebanon clashes and Iran’s actions, has...
Top Fund That Invests In Gold Miners Delivers Midas-Like Returns
Midas Discovery (MIDSX), a gold‑mining focused mutual fund, delivered a staggering 196% return in 2023 and is up 11.5% through March 2024 as gold prices surged. The metal has rallied 125% year‑to‑date, buoyed by geopolitical risk, a weakening dollar, record...
Oil Prices Climb Toward $100 as Ceasefire Uncertainty Shakes Markets
Oil prices surged toward the $100 level as doubts grew over a fragile cease‑fire between the United States, Iran and Israel. On April 9 U.S. crude jumped 6.8% to $100.79 a barrel while Brent rose 3.7% to $98.24, still well above...
Diesel Spike Cuts Pay for China's 38 Million Long‑Haul Truckers
China’s long‑haul trucking sector faces a sharp earnings squeeze as diesel prices jump 26% to about $4.60 per gallon. Drivers like Zhuang Wenxi say fuel alone now costs over $580 per fill, threatening the livelihood of the nation’s 38 million truckers...
European Stocks Slip as Fragile US‑Iran Ceasefire Sparks Oil and Inflation Fears
European equities retreated Thursday, with Germany's DAX down 1.1% and France's CAC 40 off 0.2%, after doubts surfaced over the two‑week US‑Iran ceasefire. Traders cited the risk of renewed Strait of Hormuz closures, higher oil prices and lingering inflation pressures...
Forties Crude Hits Record $147, Supply Squeeze Persists
NORTH SEA FORTIES crude prices closed at a record $147 per barrel on April 9. Forties is one of the principal streams in the Brent complex and prices have doubled since before the war between the United States and Iran...
Futures Can Diverge From Spot Prices Long-Term
While phys/spot crude $ HAS to reflect immediate supply/demand pressures, and the spread to future cargoes needs to reflect scarcity (backwardation) or surplus (contango), futures $ never NEED to converge—and can remain steeply below—to those same levels in the short/medium-term
Oil Rebounds Toward $100 as US‑Iran Ceasefire Doubts Spark Supply‑risk Fears
Oil prices surged toward the $100 mark after doubts resurfaced about the two‑week US‑Iran ceasefire, with Brent at $99.3 and WTI at $101.5 per barrel. Traders cite a still‑closed Strait of Hormuz, Israeli strikes in Lebanon and mixed signals from...
Europe Faces Imminent Jet Fuel Shortage, Economic Risk
Europe is running out of jet fuel Shortages loom in weeks if Hormuz stays constrained Diesel is the hemoglobin of the economy so Europe will be on economic life support soon https://t.co/52nJDPZ2vH #Energy #OilMarkets #Aviation #Geopolitics
Gas and Diesel Prices Rise Despite Trump's Oil Rhetoric
US gas price increase. Trump talks of US oil. So why are gas— and diesel — prices increasing like this?
Chinese Module Trading Slows After Export Tax Rebate Cancellation
OP IS reported a modest dip in the FOB China TOPCon spot price to $0.119/W, down 0.83% amid post‑Lunar New Year slowdown. The decline follows China’s removal of export tax rebates on PV products effective April 1, prompting manufacturers to absorb higher...
OPEC+ Supply Chains Crippled, US Fuels Global Allies
So, the oil and gas infrastructure of major OPEC+ producers in the Gulf and Russia is being blocked, disrupted, and damaged... While China is forced to halt exports of petroleum products, and the US is supplying fuel to satellite countries like...
USDA Confirms 2025/26 Soybean Meal, Corn Export Deals
USDA confirms the following U.S. export sales for delivery in 2025/26: ▪️100,000 metric tons of soybean meal to Italy ▪️125,640 metric tons of corn to unknown destinations
Scoop: Iran War Has Already Cost Americans $17 Billion At the Pump
A new analysis by Brown University researchers estimates that the Iran‑Israel war has cost the United States about $17 billion in higher gasoline and diesel prices. The price shock translates to roughly $129 extra per household, with diesel accounting for nearly...
Gasoline CPI Hits Record Rise; Supercore Climbs 0.18%
-Gasoline CPI up the most on record -Supercore CPI MoM +0.18%, now 3.14% YoY h/t @livesquack @macromicrome
Gas CPI Component Spikes 21.2%, Biggest Rise Since 1967
Biggest monthly rise in the gas index component of CPI since 1967 - up 21.2%. The fuel oil component is up 30% https://t.co/3U67sTDxMt https://t.co/HDIylsibXc
Gold Set For Another Weekly Gain
Gold is poised for a third consecutive weekly gain after edging lower on Friday, with spot prices at $4,748.31 per ounce and June futures at $4,772.17. The rally is driven by a two‑week U.S.–Iran cease‑fire agreement and reduced expectations of...
India Postpones Coal Plant Upkeep Amid LNG Shortage
India is delaying maintenance on its coal power plants because of a gas supply crunch 🇮🇳 ⚠️ India’s LNG imports have dropped because of the war in the Middle East And with hot summer weather coming fast, India needs more coal...
IMF Graphic Reveals Iran War’s Massive LNG Impact
😬Known info but still a stunning #IranWar #LNG graphic via the IMF's wider analysis of the war's impact. Link in next post. https://t.co/KokCb7gPBa
Oil On Track For Biggest Weekly Loss Since June Ahead Of Peace Talks
Oil prices rose on Friday but remain on track for the steepest weekly decline since June 2025 as traders await U.S. rig‑count data and the outcome of U.S.–Iran diplomatic talks. Brent hovered near $98 a barrel and WTI at $99.85,...
Higher Crude Delivery Costs Keep $4 Gasoline Persistent
"$4 gasoline looks like it’s here to stay" (for a while, at least) https://t.co/J5FTsSS3ko "The more refiners have to pay for crude deliveries, the more they have to charge for fuel, even if contracts for future oil shipments are cheap by...
Iran’s Pipeline Strike Turns Chokepoint Into Pricing Leverage
Iran didn’t just hit barrels—it hit the workaround. ~700K bpd knocked out of the Saudi bypass pipeline and ~600K bpd off production Both flow and supply are under pressure. That’s how chokepoints turn into pricing power. https://t.co/8MpkdDc8Q3 #Oil #Energy #Hormuz
Japan Plans Another Oil Reserves Release
Japan announced it will release an additional 20 days' worth of strategic oil reserves beginning in May, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said at a cabinet meeting. The release follows earlier drawdowns aimed at stabilizing domestic fuel prices amid heightened global...
European Gas and Power Prices Slide to One-Month Lows
European wholesale natural gas (TTF) and power prices (Germany) are heading toward a 1-month low. The German 1-year forward electricity contract is now at the same level it was back in November. Meanwhile, TTF gas is at the level it...