Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Natural Gas Spot Prices, Apr. 9, 2026
On April 9, 2026 a cluster of natural‑gas market developments were reported. The EU announced a softening of its methane‑emission regulations to avert a potential supply crunch, while Israel’s Energean signaled the restart of production at the Karish offshore field. QatarEnergy also began restarting liquefaction trains at its Ras Laffan LNG complex as the Strait of Hormuz reopened, and U.S. gas prices fell even as the Golden Pass LNG project came online. Together these moves signal a shift in supply dynamics across key regions.
Crude Climbs as Hormuz Disruptions Persist
Oil prices rose sharply on Thursday as West Texas Intermediate settled at $97.87 and Brent at $95.92, driven by persistent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and a reported 600,000‑barrel‑per‑day cut to Saudi production capacity. Despite a tenuous cease‑fire between...
Oil Pares Gains to Close up 1% as Israel Plans Peace Talks with Lebanon
Oil prices closed up about 1% on Thursday, with Brent at $95.92 and WTI at $97.87, but both remained below the $100 barrier for a second day. The market initially spiked over 5% on doubts about the durability of the...
US‑Iran Two‑Week Ceasefire Tested as Israel Escalates in Lebanon, Oil Markets Jolt
The United States and Iran agreed to a two‑week ceasefire on April 8, 2026, but Israel’s massive bombardment of Lebanon and Iran’s threats to close the Strait of Hormuz have already strained the truce. Oil prices surged, dragging down European...
Iran Temporarily Closes Strait of Hormuz, Crude Futures Surge Over 5%
Iran’s deputy foreign minister Saeed Khatibzadeh announced a temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz, accusing Israel of breaching the cease‑fire. The move pushed U.S. crude oil futures more than 5% higher after a 16% plunge the day before, reviving...
News Ignored Futures OI; Gold Up, Palladium Hits Low
News today did not lead to higher PM futures open interest (unless you count gold OI being 2.5k contracts off the bottom)... #gold 357k +2.5k #copper 228k +3k #silver 116k +0.6k #platinum 61k +1k #palladium 14.6k -0.6k new low
The Struggle to Diversify Rare Earth Supply Chains
Demand for rare earth magnets has doubled since 2015, and the International Energy Agency projects a 30% increase by 2030. China now controls roughly 60% of mined production, over 90% of refining, and 95% of permanent‑magnet output, creating a single‑source...
Brazil on Track to Fill China Beef Export Quota by May as Prices Hit All-Time High
Brazil is on track to exhaust its 1.106 million‑tonne beef export quota to China by early May as cattle prices hit a record R$365 (≈US$71.6) per arroba. March saw a historic 233,950 tonnes of fresh beef shipped, generating roughly R$7 billion (≈US$1.37 billion) in...
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USDA Raises Price Estimates for Several Commodities
The USDA’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) raised season‑average price forecasts for wheat, corn, soybeans, soybean meal, cheese and cotton. Wheat and corn prices each rose 5 cents to $5.00 per bushel and $4.15 per bushel respectively,...
Attacks Shut Down Key Saudi Energy Facilities, One Killed
🟥🟥🟥Official Source at the Ministry of Energy: Operational Activities Halted at Several Energy Facilities in the Kingdom due to Recent Attacks https://t.co/YhaVlatjkT Riyadh, April 9, 2026, SPA -- An official source at the Ministry of Energy stated that important energy facilities in...
Earnings Shield Markets Amid Major Oil Shock History
The analog chart below shows the major oil events since the 1970’s. The green line (1990 Gulf War) remains the best-case scenario, namely a short war that produces a full roundtrip in crude oil. Even by 1990 standards, the stock market...
Tin Surge Helps Alphamin to Record Earnings but Fuel Hike Looms
Alphamin posted record earnings for the March quarter, driven by a 30% quarter‑on‑quarter rise in tin prices that lifted EBITDA 48% to $158 million and generated $128 million of cash. All‑in sustaining costs climbed 7% to $17,968 per ton due to higher...
Aluminum Stocks Extend Breakouts Amid Iran War. Alcoa Earnings Due.
Aluminum stocks surged as Iranian missile strikes forced key Middle‑East smelters offline, tightening global supply. JPMorgan projects prices climbing toward $4,000 per ton, fueling earnings optimism for producers such as Alcoa, Kaiser Aluminum, and Indian heavyweights Hindalco and Vedanta. Alcoa’s...
Sugar Prices to Rise in May Amid Soaring Costs
Thai Sugar Millers Corp (TSMC) will hold retail sugar prices steady through April but raise them in May as energy, petrochemical and packaging costs surge. A 40% jump in plastic‑pellet prices has driven bag costs sharply higher, adding hidden expenses...
RARE EARTHS: Rare Earths Funding Boom Could Cause Longer-Term ‘Glut’ – by Kip Keen (SP Global – April 9, 2026)
A surge of government and private capital is accelerating rare‑earth production outside China, creating a short‑term supply gap but setting the stage for potential oversupply by the 2030s. Analysts say demand growth and security concerns drive current shortages, while massive...
Gold Inches Higher As Focus Turns To Strait Of Hormuz Amid Lebanon Attacks
Gold edged higher on Thursday, gaining 0.9% to $4,819.90 per ounce as markets digested the U.S.-Iran cease‑fire and renewed focus on the Strait of Hormuz. The rally coincided with a 1.5% rise in silver to $76.80 per ounce and a...
China’s Copper Import Slump Marks a Shift in Market Power – by Andy Home (Reuters – April 9, 2026)
A two‑week ceasefire in the Iran conflict eased some macro‑economic gloom, but copper prices remain elevated, with the LME three‑month contract peaking at $14,527.50 per metric ton in January. China, the world’s biggest copper consumer, cut its refined copper imports...
Travelers See Fewer Flights and Higher Airfares as Jet Fuel Prices Swing
Jet fuel prices have surged to about $209 per barrel, roughly double the level at the start of the war in the Middle East, prompting airlines to raise fares and ancillary fees. U.S. carriers such as Delta and United report...
While Whole Fish Prices Tumble, Atlantic Salmon Fillets From Norway Hit NOK 177 Entering Week 15
The Sitagri Salmon Index reported that Norway’s whole, headed, gutted Atlantic salmon for the 3‑to‑6 kg segment fell to NOK 87.55 per kilogram in Week 14, equivalent to about $9.20. This marks a NOK 3.46 (≈$0.36) drop from the Week 13 average of NOK 91.01 ($9.56)....
Oil Prices Edge Higher as Confidence in Cease-Fire Wavers
Oil prices nudged higher on Thursday after a brief dip following a tentative cease‑fire between Iran and the United States. Brent crude settled around $96 a barrel, up roughly 30% since the conflict began, while U.S. WTI hovered near $98,...
MacroVoices #527 Adam Rozencwajg: What Comes Next After The Iran Crisis
Adam Rozencwajg appears on MacroVoices to dissect the fallout from the Iran crisis. He highlights a sharp physical dislocation in the oil market, pushing prices higher and tightening supply. The conversation also covers rising food prices, inflation pressures, a potential...
A Global Food Emergency: Why the Closed Strait of Hormuz Puts Half the World’s Calories at Risk
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted the flow of roughly a third of the world’s fertilizer shipments, driving U.S. fertilizer prices up more than 40% in a single month. Higher fertilizer costs force farmers to cut applications,...
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Jet Fuel Supply Disruptions Are Comparable to 9/11 and Could Take Months to Replenish Even if Hormuz Strait Is Reopening,...
IATA chief Willie Walsh warned that jet‑fuel shortages caused by the Iran‑related war will linger for months even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Refining capacity in the Middle East has fallen 10‑12%, removing over 2 million barrels per day from...
Reliance Caps Fuel Sales at $11 per Pump Amid Growing Shortages
Reliance Industries, through its Jio‑BP joint venture, has begun limiting fuel purchases to roughly 1,000 rupees ($11) per customer at more than 2,000 retail pumps across India. The caps are a response to supply strain caused by the ongoing Hormuz...
Softs Report 04/09/2026
Cotton futures slipped amid expectations of rain in the western Great Plains, while higher petroleum prices raise shipping and polyester competition costs. USDA data show U.S. upland cotton export commitments edging up to 10.4 million bales, with Pima cotton remaining flat....
How the Global Energy Crisis Is Shaking Canada From Coast to Coast — and Could Leave a Lasting Legacy
The Iran‑Israel conflict has choked the Strait of Hormuz, driving global oil prices above $90 a barrel and prompting Canadian firms to scramble for supply. Irving Oil secured regulator approval to use a foreign tanker to import up to 680,000...
US Natural Gas Prices Drop to 18‑Month Low
In the middle of what some have described as the worst energy crisis ever (worst than 1973+1979+2022 combined), let me tell you that US natural gas prices are falling toward a 18-month low of $2.6 per mBtu. (And yes, North...
Physical Brent Market Stays Robust; Prompt Oil Premiums Soar
The physical Brent market remains very, very strong, even if Dated Brent has come off from its all-time high reached on Tuesday (down around $15). Physical premia for prompt oil (or as my colleague @AlaricN calls it: “ASAP barrels”) are...
Higher Jet Fuel Costs Could Mean Pricier Flights This Spring And Summer
Travelers planning spring and summer trips face higher airfare as jet fuel spikes 7.1% to $209 per barrel. Airlines such as Delta have halted Q2 capacity growth and now pay about $4.30 per gallon for jet fuel, planning to recoup...
Messy Hormuz Reopening Fuels Shipowners' Profit Surge
The more "messy"/"inefficient" the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz is, the higher shipowners' profits are 🇮🇷🛢️🚢 @ed_fin on "Persian Gulf Traffic Jam" as tanker bull case: Apple🔊https://t.co/qUjYx8adg2 Spotify📽️https://t.co/07NUjj4n74 1/2 https://t.co/yWohqK1at9
Oil Prices Near Double, WTI Hits $112, Brent $109
Crude oil finished the week at $112 (WTI) and $109 (Brent), making the current oil shock almost a double. https://t.co/7EKQWyQ7zM
Exxon Mobil Production Falls 6% in Q1 as Gulf Conflict Hits Output
Exxon Mobil said its global oil and gas output slipped 6% in Q1 2026 after missile attacks on LNG facilities in Qatar disrupted its Gulf operations. The shortfall translates into a $3.7 billion earnings hit for its energy products division, prompting...
Oil at $115, Backwardation Rises Amid Strait Uncertainty
Crude oil is now trading at $115 (as of Sunday night) while the forward curve has gotten even more backwardated. It’s unclear to me whether the backwardation is a manifestation of optimism over the Strait re-opening or the mechanics of...
Europe Faces Fuel Shortage After Hormuz Shipment Ends
So tomorrow Europe gets its last shipment of oil from the Strait of Hormuz. Based on that timing, if the Strait were to open tomorrow Europe's next oil shipment would come at the end of May. Reports are circulating that...
Iran Proposes Bitcoin Toll for Strait of Hormuz Oil Transits, Targeting $1 per Barrel
Iran announced it will require oil tankers to pay a transit fee in Bitcoin, roughly $1 per barrel, for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The proposal aims to bypass sanctions‑linked banking channels and could force the shipping industry to...
EU Warns as Nations Grapple with Soaring Energy Costs
EU sounds the warning bell as countries face soaring energy prices https://t.co/c7S4lxI7D8 via @suzannelynch1 https://t.co/rMfXvLzmAu
Oil Demand Must Plunge 11.5 Mmb/D, Risking Economy
Oil demand has to fall, writes @ericnuttall. Put a number on it: ~11.5 mmb/d. Let that sink in. There is no path to that kind of demand destruction without severe economic damage. No escape hatch. Stop buying the rumor. https://t.co/tQOLjUrEEQ
Gold, Silver Rates Today: Comex Gold Jumps $25/Oz; Silver Near $75.4 Amid US-Iran Ceasefire Uncertainty
Gold futures on the COMEX edged higher by $25, reaching $4,802 per ounce, while silver stayed flat around $75.47. A softer U.S. dollar and renewed Middle East tensions provided modest support for both metals. The rally was tempered by uncertainty...
Oil Supply Becomes Fragile, Disruption Now Easy
Oil isn’t just scarce—it’s fragile. Cheap drones, missiles, and even fear can choke global supply. Disruption is no longer hard—it’s easy. This is a shift toward a more fragmented, insecure energy order. https://t.co/7xfbU20QFT #OilMarkets #Energy #Geopolitics
Iran Ceasefire Sends Prediction Markets Into Turmoil
"contract resolved to "yes" following Tuesday evening's announcements, but its outcome has since been changed to "disputed" given continued disruptions to Hormuz Strait shipments and enduring hostilities" Iran Ceasefire Wreaks Havoc on Prediction Markets https://t.co/uv56XlWTW9
Metal Movers: Strait of Hormuz - How Sulphur Is Impacting the Copperbelt
In this joint Argus Fertilizers and Argus Metals episode, the hosts examine how the Middle East conflict, especially the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has choked sulfur shipments that feed the African copper belt’s leaching operations. Sulfur prices in...
WASDE Raises Corn, Wheat, Soybean Prices; Trims Soybean Exports
Biggest WASDE changes this month were bumping up corn and wheat prices by a nickel a bushel and increasing soybean prices 10 cents a bushel, but cutting soybean exports slightly.
Oil Volatility Soars as US‑Iran Ceasefire Uncertain
Volatility remains exceptionally elevated for oil today. Back and forth in the headlines around whether the ceasefire will hold between US-Iran. The 10-day ATR has 'settled' at 9% - which very volatile. The US-Brent spread is still positive - which is...
Diesel Supplies to Poland's Ports at Record in March
Seaborne diesel deliveries to Poland’s Baltic ports surged to a record 776,000 tonnes in March, eclipsing the previous high of 667,000 tonnes set in May 2022. The spike was driven by a planned turnaround at the 210,000 b/d Gdańsk refinery and...
Global Wheat Stocks Surge, India Drives Surprise Boost
Much larger-than-expected global wheat stocks from USDA this month, mostly based on larger supplies in India per its own govt stock report. Chinese soybean demand was unchanged. Corn supplies were a bit larger than expected. https://t.co/oVsPwLsIX7
USDA Holds South American Crop Forecast Amid Agency Updates
USDA left South American production alone this month. Interesting after seeing some increases from other agencies on Argentina's corn and Brazil's soybean crops. Conab will be out with its estimates on April 14. https://t.co/2Up1v7VTJr
DRC Quota Extension Eases Cobalt Supply Concerns, but Market Reaction Muted
The Democratic Republic of Congo extended its cobalt export quota deadline by an additional 30 days, moving the Q4 2025 cutoff to the end of Q1 2026. CMOC, the world’s largest cobalt producer, said the extension will let it ship its full...
USDA Lifts Wheat Stocks to 938M, Corn and Soy Steady
USDA raised its domestic #wheat ending stocks by 7 million to 938 million bushels, while leaving #corn and #soybean stocks unchanged. #oatt
Gas Turbine Supply Crunch Set to Raise Prices 195% by 2027: WoodMac
Wood Mackenzie forecasts gas turbine prices to soar to $600 per kilowatt by the end of 2027, a 195% jump from 2019 levels. The surge is driven by specialized labor shortages, hot‑section component bottlenecks, and trade‑related cost pressures, compounded by...