Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Diesel Supplies to Poland's Ports at Record in March
Seaborne diesel deliveries to Poland’s Baltic ports surged to a record 776,000 tonnes in March, eclipsing the previous high of 667,000 tonnes set in May 2022. The spike was driven by a planned turnaround at the 210,000 b/d Gdańsk refinery and heightened market uncertainty from the Middle‑East Gulf conflict. State‑owned Orlen and Aramco Fuels Poland were the largest importers, while Polish ports also increased diesel exports to Ukraine, reaching 160,500 tonnes. Cumulative diesel imports for Q1 rose to 1.34 million tonnes, an 83% jump from the same period a year earlier.
DRC Quota Extension Eases Cobalt Supply Concerns, but Market Reaction Muted
The Democratic Republic of Congo extended its cobalt export quota deadline by an additional 30 days, moving the Q4 2025 cutoff to the end of Q1 2026. CMOC, the world’s largest cobalt producer, said the extension will let it ship its full...
Gas Turbine Supply Crunch Set to Raise Prices 195% by 2027: WoodMac
Wood Mackenzie forecasts gas turbine prices to soar to $600 per kilowatt by the end of 2027, a 195% jump from 2019 levels. The surge is driven by specialized labor shortages, hot‑section component bottlenecks, and trade‑related cost pressures, compounded by...
Iron Ore Slips on Signs of BHP-China Thaw
Iron ore prices fell to a one‑month low after Bloomberg reported that BHP’s incoming CEO, Brandon Craig, visited Beijing. The visit sparked speculation that the long‑running pricing dispute between BHP and China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) may be easing. Futures...
Brazil Hikes Ethanol Blend; Argentina Lifts Corn Forecast
In case you missed it, some pertinent news came out of South America Wednesday afternoon. 🇧🇷Brazil wants to raise ethanol's mix in gasoline to 32% from 30% by the end of June 🇦🇷Argentina's Rosario exchange raised the 25/26 corn crop to 67...
Silver Daily Call for April 9th, 2026
Silver prices are recovering after a recent pullback, with the metal trading above the oversold bottom near $61.00. The analysis from Silver Tiger Metals Inc. and Midas Touch Consulting projects a next major target of $78.70, followed by a potential...
The Government Targets to Buy 303.36 Lakh Tonnes (Lt) of Wheat for the Central Pool Stock by June 30.
The Indian government plans to buy 303.36 lakh tonnes of wheat for its Central Pool by June 30, despite unseasonal rain and hailstorms that have damaged crops in 111 districts across nine states. The weather events are projected to cut overall wheat...
THE INCOMING COPPER SQUEEZE: The Middle East Reconstruction Shock + the Historic Demand Stack + the Declining Supply = the...
The recent conflict in Iran and broader Middle‑East unrest has triggered a massive reconstruction effort that will require between 5,000 and 15,000 metric tons of copper over the next decade. This demand adds to an already historic deficit driven by...
How War in the Middle East Paralysed an Asian Food Giant
The war in the Middle East has sharply curtailed oil and fertilizer shipments, driving diesel prices in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta to double and depleting fertilizer stocks to a fraction of normal levels. Rice mills have halted operations and barges sit...
IMF Warns of Deepening Global Food Crisis as Fertilizer Prices Surge
The International Monetary Fund warned that soaring fertilizer prices are set to deepen the global food crisis, potentially pushing the number of people facing hunger above 360 million. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva highlighted that transport disruptions and higher input costs are...
European Commission Publishes First CBAM Certificate Price
The European Commission released the first‑quarter 2026 Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) certificate price at €75.36 ($89.64) per tonne CO₂e, based on the volume‑weighted average of EU Allowances (EUAs). EUA prices swung sharply in Q1, climbing above €90 before falling...
Iran War Doubles Russia's Main Oil Revenue to $9 Billion in April
Russia’s mineral extraction tax on oil is set to double in April, reaching roughly $9 billion, after the Iran‑related crisis drove Brent futures above $100 per barrel. The surge stems from the Strait of Hormuz closure following US and Israeli airstrikes,...
South Africa Diesel Prices Set to Jump R12/L
Get your medication, boys and girls. In South Africa, early projections (as of early April) suggest that diesel could rise by roughly R12+ per litre in May. This is partly due to the under-recovery + the expiry of the temporary...
Oil Prices Hit $100 With Hormuz Closed Despite Ceasefire, But S&P 500 Diverges
U.S. crude prices surged past $100 a barrel as Iran kept the Strait of Hormuz closed, demanding Israel halt attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon. The closure reignited supply‑risk premiums, pushing the near‑term WTI contract up 5.8% after briefly topping $102....
Reliance Caps Sales at $11 Per Pump as Shortages Deepen
Reliance Industries, India’s largest private‑sector refiner, has begun capping fuel purchases at its Jio‑BP stations to roughly $11 per visit as Middle‑East tensions keep crude shipments constrained. The limit of 1,000 rupees per customer is being enforced informally to deter...
Doug Sheridan: Coal Is Far From Dead
Rising natural‑gas prices triggered by the Iran‑Israel conflict are prompting Asian and European nations to revive coal‑fired power. Thailand has restarted plants, while Japan, South Korea and Italy have lifted caps or delayed coal phase‑outs, with Germany’s coal output now...
Iran‑U.S. Ceasefire Sends Oil 16% Lower, Spurs Stock Rally, Dollar Hits 4‑Week Low
President Donald Trump's announcement of a two‑week ceasefire with Iran sent U.S. crude down 16.4% to $94.41 a barrel, sparked a 2.5% jump in the S&P 500, and drove the dollar to its lowest level in four weeks. Traders now...
3 Canadian E&P Stocks Benefiting From a Tight Oil Market
Zacks highlights a tight oil market and expanding LNG capacity as catalysts for Canadian exploration‑and‑production firms, naming Canadian Natural Resources, Baytex Energy and ARC Resources as top picks. The industry outperformed the broader oil‑energy sector, delivering a 79.2% gain versus...
Goldman: Oil Could Remain at Crisis Prices for Rest of Year
Goldman Sachs warned that oil prices could stay above $100 a barrel for the remainder of 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for another month. The strategic waterway, which carries roughly one‑fifth of global seaborne oil, has been...
Will 2026 Be Better for Corn Farmers Than 2024 and 2025
The Kansas City Federal Reserve released an updated forecast showing a higher profit per bushel for corn farmers in 2026 than in 2024 and 2025. The new estimate reflects a modest rebound in corn prices combined with relatively stable input...
How the Strait of Hormuz Stifled a Market Rally
Investors turned bearish as the fragile U.S.-Iran cease‑fire raised doubts about reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway, which moves roughly a quarter of global oil and gas shipments, remains congested, dampening the market rally sparked earlier in the week....
Oil Plumm
Oil had its 2nd largest drop in 35 years. Just a few days after Binance listed its oil futures - with 100X leverage. Yeah, that Binance - the money-laundering crypto founder who was pardoned by Trump. Then 6 million barrels of Brent and...
5 Big Energy Stories - 4.9.2026: Back to $100 Oil Again
Oil markets have experienced dramatic swings in the past 48 hours as geopolitical tension resurfaced. A tentative U.S.-Iran ceasefire initially drove West Texas Intermediate (WTI) down from $115 to $92 per barrel, a drop of over 20 percent. Iran’s quick...
Iran Ceasefire Won’t Provide Immediate Fertilizer Relief
A two‑week cease‑fire between the U.S. and Iran includes a pledge to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but analysts say the limited window won’t instantly normalize fertilizer shipments. Prices for major fertilizers, especially urea, have surged—Urea up 34% month‑over‑month—keeping retail...
Oil Prices Rise to Nearly $100 After Iran Accuses U.S. of Breaching Ceasefire Deal
Oil prices surged on Thursday, with Brent crude reaching $98.54 a barrel and U.S. WTI climbing to $99.41, after Iran accused Washington of violating three elements of a two‑week cease‑fire agreement. Iran’s parliamentary speaker cited Israel’s strikes in Lebanon, a...
Hormuz Re-Shuts Over Lebanon Strikes: Oil Prices Rise Again | Rapid Read 9 April 2026
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the Strait of Hormuz closed hours after a US‑Iran ceasefire, citing Israel’s large‑scale airstrikes in Lebanon. Marine tracking shows only three to seven vessels transited in the past 24 hours, a sharp drop from...
Gold Daily Call for April 9th, 2026
Gold rebounded to close around $4,715 on April 9, staying above the newly raised bias level of $4,690 after a brief pullback. The daily outlook anticipates choppy action with short‑term targets at $4,765, $4,780 and $4,800. Longer‑term analysis sees gold...
Seasonal Ceasfire
The Crude Chronicles estimates oil’s fair value at about $80 per barrel, using a marginal‑cost framework that emphasizes rising extraction costs as well‑productivity slows. The analysis highlights two near‑term catalysts: full refinery restarts within 2‑3 months, which should keep crack...
Global Milk Boom Continues as Prices Come Under Renewed Pressure
Global milk production remained elevated in Q1 2026, keeping supply abundant and pushing commodity prices lower. Whole‑milk powder fell about 30% and butter‑fat 40% since September, while protein‑rich products slipped roughly 15%. The dairy trade index, after six months of...
Middle East Gulf Supplies only 8% of U.S. Crude Imports
"Imports from the Middle East Gulf region made up 8% of the 6.2 million b/d of U.S. crude oil imports in 2025" -EIA
Methanol Prices Surge, Highlighted in Chartbook
Methanol - another basic material the price of which has surged. More on this in the Chartbook Top links today. https://t.co/zsabi9bx96
Silver Rate Today in India Is Below ₹2.40 Lakh. Is This the Right Time to Buy the White Metal?
MCX silver futures slipped 1.17% to ₹2.37,100 per kilogram, pushing the rate below the ₹2.40 lakh threshold. The decline reflects cautious market sentiment, weak safe‑haven demand, and a firm US dollar. Technical analysis places immediate resistance near ₹2.46,5 lakh and support at...
WTI Prices Surge as Inventory Signals Supply Urgency
WTI comparative inventory reflected supply urgency over fundamentals CI increased 0.5 mmb and price rose $11.38 week ending April 3 $105.67 was far above any previous yield curve marginal price for current C.I. #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket
Oil Market Frenzy Drains 80% of Emergency Reserves
"Oil Chaos Is Clearest in the Hunt for ASAP Barrels" https://t.co/txxSCuq97g "314 million barrels have been removed from the market already — almost 80% of the record release of emergency reserves announced by the International Energy Agency in March." https://t.co/KUX2MZYcbM
Strait of Hormuz Shipping Stalled as Iran Keeps Chokepoint Closed Despite US‑Iran Ceasefire
Iran has kept the Strait of Hormuz shut even after the United States and Tehran agreed to a two‑week ceasefire, leaving oil tankers and other vessels stranded. The impasse is feeding uncertainty in global oil markets and prompting renewed diplomatic...
ASAP Oil Prices Surge to Record Highs
Very good short note from my colleague @alexlongley1 about why the price of what he rightly calls "ASAP" oil barrels is going throughout the roof https://t.co/6dpWmdpJlG
Conflict Outcomes Remain Uncertain, Like Schr
Given "Schroedinger's ceasefire" and "Schroedinger's Hormuz re-opening", thought this was a potentially instructive chart from @johnauthers, via @Bloomberg. #HistoryRhymes https://t.co/86srIVeKMI
Trump Accepts Two‑Week Iran Ceasefire After Threatening Annihilation, Oil Prices Plunge
President Donald Trump announced a two‑week ceasefire with Iran hours before his 8 p.m. ET deadline, averting a threatened bombing campaign. The deal, brokered by Pakistan and contingent on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sent Brent crude down more than 13%...
U.S. Corn Exports Surge, Wheat Mixed; Soy Near Lows
🇺🇸U.S. corn export sales last week remained on an above-average pace, headlined by Japan. Soybeans were near a marketing-year low but within expectations. Better-than-expected old-crop wheat sales were offset by a new-crop volume below all analyst estimates. https://t.co/oCqaZxzksH
Markets Care About Oil, Not Iran's Political Outcome
Regarding Iran, the market's primary concern is oil prices. Whether we "win", " lose", or fail to meet our objectives has little to no relevance for the market.
'It's Killing Everything.' California's Truckers Are Buckling Under Country's Priciest Diesel
Record diesel prices in California have surged to about $7.75 per gallon, more than 35% above the national average, pushing a typical fuel tank from $600 to $1,000. Small‑fleet operators like Liberty Linehaul West, which runs 40 trucks, are seeing...
USDA Trade Estimates Stable; Watch South American and U.S. Corn/Soy
All trade estimates for USDA's supply & demand report due Thursday at noon EDT. Not many changes expected to headline numbers on average, though the ranges of ideas are healthy. Top items to watch are South American corn/soy crops and...
Oil Soars 42% While US Stocks Slip 1%
This is nuts... oil +42% since the war began, and US stocks have plunged all of 1% @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x Nasdaq, small caps UNCH https://t.co/8xxFActnDf
China Halves Fuel Price Increase for Second time...China Raises Supply Chain Protection to “National Security” issue...Xi Jinping Backs Service Sector...
China reduced its scheduled domestic fuel‑price increase for the second time, limiting gasoline to a 3.85% rise (about $1.23 per litre) and diesel to 4.2% (around $1.20 per litre), a move aimed at tempering inflation amid volatile Middle‑East oil markets....
Reopening Hormuz Likely Messy, Iran Controls Every Barrel
RBC Capital Markets' @CroftHelima and co: "[W]e think the mechanics of reopening the Strait will be exceedingly messy, with Iran potentially having a vote on nearly every barrel that exits the waterway until Gulf countries can build more alternative access...
ADNOC CEO Says Strait of Hormuz Remains Secure
Sultan Al Jaber, the CEO of Adnoc, on the state of the Strait of Hormuz https://t.co/HM7Jf6Ut4i
2026 Q2 Brent/WTI Forecast Trimmed, Later Quarters Stable
GS: We Keep Our 2026Q3/Q4 Forecast Unchanged at $82/80 for Brent and $77/75 for WTI But Nudge Down Our 2026Q2 Forecast for Brent/WTI to $90/87
UAE Oil Chief Calls Hormuz Closure “Control, Not Passage”
UAE senior oil official Sultan Al Jaber denounces the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. “Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled,” “Conditional passage is not passage. It is control by another name,” he says. https://t.co/TFczKBO4kk
India Seeks Faster Qatar LNG Restart Amid Supply Halt
India's oil minister is heading to Qatar to ask the nation to accelerate the restart of LNG exports and for priority delivery 🇮🇳🤝🇶🇦 Qatar is India’s top LNG supplier (providing 45%). But those deliveries have halted since the Iran war started https://t.co/B7JwVxFnF3
Silver Slides 16% This Month, Bearish Trend Confirmed
Unlike Oil, Silver is down -16% in the last month and just confirmed Bearish TREND @Hedgeye $SLV https://t.co/WPK2CHPtiT