Know What's Happening in Commodities
Know What's Happening in Commodities
OPEC+ agrees modest oil quota increase amid Middle East war
OPEC+ members agreed in principle to raise production quotas for May by roughly 206,000 barrels per day, a symbolic adjustment as the war constrains output and shipments. Saudi Arabia and Russia led the video‑conference decision, signaling alliance cohesion despite the geopolitical shock.
Oil prices nudged higher on Monday as traders priced in the upcoming US‑Iran nuclear talks, which aim to ease regional tensions. The market also factored in OPEC‑plus’s plan to increase output later in the year, tempering the risk‑off sentiment. Brent crude rose roughly half a percent, while WTI showed a similar modest gain. Analysts note that the price move reflects a balance between geopolitical uncertainty and anticipated supply growth.
Maurel & Prom (M&P) is lobbying Venezuelan authorities to regain access to its Urdaneta Oeste oil field after being omitted from the government’s initial roster of approved foreign operators. The Paris‑listed firm argues that the field, capable of delivering several thousand...
TotalEnergies and Oman’s state‑run OQ Exploration and Production are evaluating a second liquefaction train for the Marsa LNG project, which is currently under construction. The additional train would significantly raise the plant’s export capacity, positioning the facility as a major...
Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery reached full 650,000 bpd capacity in January 2026, processing a record 40.1 million litres of crude per day and supplying 57 % of the nation’s fuel. Domestic output now provides 62 % of premium motor spirit, overtaking imports for the first...
Egyptian fertilizer producer NCIC announced a new tender for March‑loading shipments, closing on 19 February. The offer includes 1,000 t water‑soluble SOP, 20,000 t CAN26 (grade corrected), 20,000 t granular urea, 25,000 t TSP and 20,000 t DAP. Prices reference previous tender sales, with urea spot...
European biodiesel trading on Argus Open Markets surged to its strongest January level in two years, driven by the EU’s revised Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) and Germany’s new rule eliminating carry‑over of surplus GHG certificates. The stricter mandates, which require...
Chevron is aggressively expanding its Venezuelan heavy‑crude production to feed its complex Gulf Coast refineries, which are optimized for dense, sulfur‑rich oil. Global supplies of such crude have tightened as Mexican exports fall, Russian barrels are sanctioned, and Canadian logistics...
Niger's military government moved roughly 1,000 tonnes of uranium concentrate, known as yellowcake, to Air Base 101 near Niamey after seizing the Orano‑run mine. The stockpile remains unsold, with potential buyers from Russia, China, the United States and the UAE...
Turkey's state grain buyer TMO closed a February tender for 195,000 t of feed barley at $266.20‑268.20 per tonne, pricing below the initial offers. Only 50,000 t were contracted on a CFR basis, with the remainder secured ex‑works from Turkish port stocks....
Rising silver prices, now 187 % above early‑2025 levels, are pressuring solar manufacturers as silver paste can account for up to 30 % of cell costs. Heraeus forecasts a decline in photovoltaic silver demand despite stable global installations, citing ongoing substitution efforts....
China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment has extended mandatory carbon‑reporting to petrochemicals, chemicals, flat glass, copper smelting, papermaking and civil aviation, laying groundwork for future ETS inclusion. The national emissions trading system already covers power, steel, cement and aluminum—about 60‑65%...
The 14th Solaire Expo Maroc in Casablanca highlighted Morocco’s push toward an integrated renewable ecosystem, featuring electric‑vehicle pavilions and a strong Chinese presence in solar equipment. Local distributors reported a dynamic market with rising prices after China ended VAT rebates,...
EBW Analytics warned that U.S. natural‑gas demand could weaken heading into the President’s Day weekend, after the front‑month NYMEX contract briefly spiked to $3.316 per MMBtu before retreating. A recent EIA report showed a 249 billion‑cubic‑foot draw, leaving storage 97 bcf below...
French startup PvPilot has launched a fourth‑generation home energy management system (HEMS) that claims universal compatibility with all major solar inverters, batteries and EV chargers. The solution, delivered via a USB‑connected relay device, measures real‑time generation and demand to orchestrate...
Oil investors bullish on proliferating supply threats Investors are increasingly bullish about the outlook for oil prices as potential risks to production and tanker traffic multiply - including threats of U.S. military action against Iran and stricter sanctions enforcement. Hedge funds and...
India’s chemical industry faces a structural shift as it seeks to move up the value chain by reducing reliance on imported feedstocks. Ramya Bharathram of Thirumalai Chemicals emphasizes refinery‑petrochemical integration, flexible cracker designs, and transparent, index‑linked pricing as keys to...
North America’s weekly rig count slipped by six to 773, with the U.S. remaining steady at 551 rigs and Canada falling to 222. In the United States, oil rigs decreased by three while gas rigs rose by three, shifting the...
U.S. GAS futures prices have retreated to the lowest for almost four months after spiking during Winter Storm Fern. Front-month futures have fallen back to just $3 per million British thermal units (the lowest since mid-October). The front month has...
The International Energy Week (IEW) in London highlighted the clash between geopolitics and a projected global oil surplus for 2026. SEB commodities analyst Bjarne Schieldrop warned that OPEC+ will likely trim production by roughly three million barrels per day to...
China’s independent refiners boosted Russian oil imports to a record roughly 2.08 million barrels per day in February, overtaking the 1.7 million bpd seen in January. The surge follows India’s sharp cutback to about 1.16 million bpd, leaving China as Moscow’s top seaborne...
In this episode Florian Grummes provides a technical outlook for gold, highlighting a sideways market with key resistance levels at 5012‑5126 and support zones from 5000 down to 4907. He notes the lack of clear directional bias due to closed...
Singapore’s bunker sales jumped 17% year‑on‑year to 5.23 million tonnes in January, driven by a 12% rise in vessel arrivals and strong demand for conventional marine fuels. High‑sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) reached a post‑2020 record of 2.16 million tonnes, while very‑low‑sulphur fuel...
Grains Australia’s new report quantifies non‑tariff measures (NTMs) as a 20.4% tariff‑equivalent on Australian grain exports, costing the sector about $4.6 billion in forgone revenue each year. The analysis, built on ABARES research and ANU‑led econometric modelling, is the most detailed...
In this episode, Lukas Kuemmerle reviews his commodity portfolio, highlighting a 50% profit take on a short coffee position after hitting the first target and the initiation of a short trend‑continuation trade in cocoa, capitalizing on a brief consolidation. He...
Aurizon announced record bulk earnings for the half ending 31 December, driven primarily by a surge in Western Australian grain volumes. Bulk EBITDA reached $117 million, a 39 percent increase year‑on‑year, while total bulk rail volumes rose 4 percent to 28.4 Mt. The company also...
Canada is on the brink of becoming the world’s largest uranium exporter as NexGen Energy’s Rook I mine in Saskatchewan moves toward final approval by the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission. The project, located in the Athabasca Basin, is designed to...
Australian fuel companies have boosted their gasoil inventories to satisfy the government‑mandated Minimum Stockholding Obligation (MSO). The MSO now requires importers to hold 32 days of gasoil and refiners 20 days, tightening the previous rules. All ten gasoil‑reporting firms met...
Treasury Wine Estates’ push back into China has been derailed by a government crackdown on extravagant banquets and tighter grey‑market controls. The winemaker announced it will pull 400,000 cases from China and 500,000 from the United States to regain pricing...
Australia’s wheat exports jumped to 2,288,487 tonnes in December 2025, more than double November’s volume and slightly above the 2.13 Mt shipped a year earlier. The surge reflects the arrival of new‑crop wheat from southern ports, marking the start of the...
The “AI drives a gas buildout” narrative skips the only thing that matters: DELIVERABILITY @marthamuir25 Turbine lead times are years & interconnection queues are jammed, The grid can’t supply firm power on schedule. Megawatts in press releases aren’t megawatts to the...
Onshore LNG is becoming a security and politics nightmare. That’s why floating LNG is back: faster build, smaller upfront risk And you can park it offshore instead of betting $20B on land stability Lease-and-move models make gas exportable again. https://t.co/wMnwOPoyxv #LNG #FLNG #energy #naturalgas...
Rio Tinto has suspended production at its Simandou iron ore mine in Guinea following the death of a contractor on February 14. The company announced a thorough investigation, though details on the cause remain undisclosed. Simandou, which began shipments in...
Metal Volatility Changed Everything $GLD $SLV $BTCUSD $SPX $QQQ $IGV $XLK Sharp volatility in gold, silver, crypto and equities was easier to spot than most think. And why I study sector rotation, options structure, and investor confidence. https://t.co/PYmLxcJSCJ
Why @IEA and @OPECSecretariat are split on what comes next for oil - and what it means for strategy this year https://t.co/FUAD5TlcG4 @TheNationalNews
US headline CPI rose 0.2% month‑over‑month, bringing annual inflation down to 2.4% year‑over‑year and bolstering expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts. Wheat futures slipped in Chicago, Kansas and European markets as record spread volumes forced an inverted curve, even...
"The Break Is Over. Companies Are Jacking Up Prices Again." "Such new price increases follow last year’s wave of tariff-driven price hikes" https://t.co/onoN6WYPHy https://t.co/OjVUbYFXnM
“Brent drops to $60 if Iran tension fades,” says SEB’s Bjarne Schieldrop. Sure — until the next mini-shock. That’s the point: this isn’t anomaly anymore It’s the baseline. Oil trades on recurring tail risk at the margin. https://t.co/qqfYS0QUG9 #oil #Brent #OPEC #Iran #geopolitics...
The episode examines the severe liquidity crunch in both physical and paper silver, highlighted by a sharp drop in COMEX open interest and widening spreads that deter speculators. It explains how banks and traders are constrained by the high value...
COLUMN: In the oil market, the bears control the narrative — at least for now. (My summary after last week's International Energy Week, the oil trading industry's annual jamboree in London) @Opinion https://t.co/Y3OHEhD4k5
GAS MARKET: After a cold blast triggered sild price moves, US gas benchmark Henry Hub has fallen back below $3 per mBtu. Warmer temperatures and the irresistible supply force of the US shale revolution behind the pullback.
California has to import US gasoline via Bahamas Refinery closures + no Gulf-to-CA pipelines + the Jones Act = a logistics tax https://t.co/3dGBI24oXI #gasoline #California #energy #refining #JonesAct #shipping #supplychain #oil #inflation #markets
U.S. natural gas 12-month spread widened $0.10 (10%) on lower prompt price April contract fell $0.13 (4%) from $3.23 to $3.10 week ending February 13 Front-month price decreased $0.18 (5%) from $3.42 to $3.24 #energy #NaturalGas #shale #fintwit #oilandgas #Commodities #ONGT #natgas #LNG
A $12B rare earth stockpile is a step in the right direction, but buying from China on the open market isn’t independence; it’s a piggy bank with a very fragile supply chain. Until we build domestic processing, this is a...
Egypt expects electricity demand to increase by 7% this summer. That means strong demand for LNG imports. Egypt's LNG demand reached record high last year. 👇👇
The natural gas party is over U.S. natural gas futures price fell $0.18 (5%) from $3.42 to $3.24 week ending February 6 My outlook suggests a modest floor Increase (~$0.25), not a rally forming #energy #NaturalGas #shale #fintwit #oilandgas #Commodities #ONGT #natgas...
A decade ago, I wrote an essay @ForeignAffairs about rise of US LNG w subhead "The benign energy superpower." https://t.co/P9r14hfb11 This week @MunSecConf, the Q I got most was whether Europe can trust US LNG to be reliable. And privately, senior...
Speculative money is leaning back into oil as traders look for stability in a volatile world writes @Ole_S_Hansen Oil is becoming the preferred risk exposure in an otherwise uncertain macro landscape. Relative calm in crude contrasts with violent reversals in precious...
EU fossil imports met 58% of energy demand in 2023 - near pre-crisis levels - leaving consumers exposed to price shocks. Far above China (24%) & India (37%); only Japan (84%) & S. Korea (80%) rely more on imports. Graph: @ember_energy...
Drain America First U.S. natural gas exports rise toward 20 Bcf/d in 2027 #NaturalGas #EnergySecurity #ShaleGas #Permian #EnergyInfrastructure #SupplyConstraints #USGas https://t.co/rmLKJzpmpS
U.S. natural gas supply growth Is peaking @yagelski @websterdrake Permian is the only play that's growing Other shale gas plays are flat or declining & conventional gas is in terminal decline #NaturalGas #EnergySecurity #ShaleGas #Permian #EnergyInfrastructure #SupplyConstraints #USGas
