Know What's Happening in Commodities
Know What's Happening in Commodities
OPEC+ agrees modest oil quota increase amid Middle East war
OPEC+ members agreed in principle to raise production quotas for May by roughly 206,000 barrels per day, a symbolic adjustment as the war constrains output and shipments. Saudi Arabia and Russia led the video‑conference decision, signaling alliance cohesion despite the geopolitical shock.
In this episode, The Macro Butler breaks down why gold’s worth extends far beyond its market price, emphasizing its role as a historical store of value, a hedge against systemic risk, and a cultural symbol of wealth. He explains how gold’s scarcity, durability, and universal acceptance give it intrinsic value that isn’t captured by daily price fluctuations. The discussion also touches on the psychological comfort investors find in holding physical gold during monetary turbulence, and how central bank policies can influence gold’s appeal. Overall, the episode underscores gold’s multifaceted value proposition in a modern, fiat‑dominated financial system.
Read your chart @yagelski It shows that the US is awash in natural gas DEMAND not supply Pipelines, storage & power-plant hookups lag demand, as they always do. This is an infrastructure problem, not a resource problem. #NaturalGas #EnergyInfrastructure #LNG #PowerMarkets #GridConstraints...
The oil “glut” exists in models, not in physical barrels, writes @MeesEnergy Backwardation holds, volatility stays calm, and the barrels everyone talks about don’t show up in stocks. Models say surplus. The market says otherwise. #OilMarkets #OPECplus #Backwardation #EnergySecurity #SupplyRisk #ChinaOil...
In Episode 91, Arjun Murti delivers a rapid FAQ on the "take risk" messaging his podcast has been using throughout 2026, focusing on how companies should shape corporate strategy amid a maturing US shale oil sector. He reflects on the...
Macro: MOEX flat as oil steadies and gold spikes; RUB strengthens (USD/RUB 76.65). Key drivers: commodity moves, stable RVI (24.9). Risks: commodity volatility, sanctions. Trade: buy selective energy exporters on RUB resilience. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
How I Called The Top In Silver & What Comes Next $GLD $SLV $GDX $SIL We also about my yen monetization framework, oil, AI-driven software disruption & timing a historic rotation into large-cap value. https://t.co/0A5l9bLx9C
China is projected to supply roughly one‑third of the world’s ammonia by 2030, cementing its role as the dominant producer and consumer. Strong agricultural demand for nitrogen‑based fertilizers and a broad industrial base, from steel to plastics, underpin this growth....
Brent futures price fell $0.30 from $68.05 to $67.75 week ending February 13 12-month spread suggests sideways price movement on Monday #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/hYd0O6d84E
Show me the glut WTI 12-month spread narrowed $0.06 (2%) for the week ending February 13 6-month spread narrowed $0.11 (9%) Front-month price fell $0.66 (1%) from $63.55 to $62.89 #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/1VHaA5PFZN
The episode dissects the recent turbulence in the cocoa market, highlighting a modest 0.77% price bounce despite a projected 287,000 MT surplus and a 22% sales drop from major players. It explores the concept of "supply ghosts"—beans stranded at Ivorian...
Shell base case assumes sustained 3.3% global growth GDP nearly doubles by 2050 #GlobalGDP #EconomicGrowth #EnergyScenarios #Shell #Macroeconomics #GrowthAssumptions #LongTermForecasts https://t.co/meXF1PuaVe
CHART OF THE DAY: Among the world's top oil consumers, a curious trend. The 2nd largest consumption drop last year ocurred in Saudi Arabia, where demand fell ~60,000 b/d (only South Korea saw a larger drop). The reason? Gas is...
The episode reviews the recent market turbulence, highlighting how precious metals and mining stocks held up better than tech and crypto sectors during Thursday's massive sell‑off. A surprisingly mild U.S. CPI report on Friday helped the metals complex rebound, erasing...
Pemex is back in the bond market after six years — and demand was strong. This doesn't signal confidence in Pemex. Buyers are really underwriting the Mexican state. https://t.co/YRGXmzi4aW #Pemex #Mexico #OilMarkets #EnergySecurity #SovereignRisk #DebtMarkets #EmergingMarkets
China is pulling more cheap oil from the Middle East. That leaves W. African oil struggling to find buyers until it gets cheap enough to move again, writes @JuneGoh_Sparta In this tight market, the Middle East has the upper hand. Sorry oil...
Taiwan's state-owned enterprises have signed a trade agreement with the United States committing to purchase $44 billion in liquefied natural gas and crude oil and $25.2 billion in power‑generation equipment by 2029. The deal, announced on Feb. 12, creates a $69 billion energy trade...
OPEC+ may restart April hikes to catch peak summer and regain share as sanctions bite Russia/Iran. https://t.co/cILwlUi7h2 #OPECplus #Oil #IEA #SaudiArabia #UAE #Iran #Russia
The 2-year Treasury yield (blue) fell sharply at 8:30 am today, a sign markets think today's CPI was benign and so the Fed cuts more. Bloomberg's XAU/$ gold price (white) rose around the same time, which is consistent with that...
Oil prices closed Friday largely unchanged after a session marked by sharp swings between macro‑economic headwinds and geopolitical support. Traders weighed the prospect of OPEC‑plus expanding output against lingering demand concerns. The market’s equilibrium suggests that supply‑side expectations have not...
🚦From a pure fundamentals perspective, there's simply no bullish driver in sight capable of pushing oil prices into the high $70s—or higher—in 2026. ⚽️Betting your capital on a major war with Iran or any similar geopolitical shock to spike prices isn't...
US retail electricity prices have spiked, prompting criticism of new AI data center projects. While AI‑driven facilities consume large amounts of power, they represent a modest slice of total grid demand. The backlash threatens a key source of future natural‑gas...
Expand Energy, the United States' largest gas producer, announced the removal of CEO Nick Dell'Osso. The leadership change coincided with a plan to relocate the corporate headquarters from Oklahoma City to the Houston metropolitan area. Analysts say the ouster is...
On February 3, a pipeline explosion at the Delfin LNG export project in the Gulf of Mexico halted construction and triggered a lawsuit alleging negligence by the developers and contractors. The incident adds to a history of delays that have already...
The Northeastern United States is enduring its coldest winter in over three decades, pushing spot gasoline prices to a significant premium. In contrast, Western Canada is enjoying its warmest winter in a century, easing local fuel costs. The divergent weather...
Oil prices rose on Feb. 13, 2026 as OPEC+ announced an extension of its production cuts through 2027, supporting a tighter market. U.S. crude inventories dropped by 3.2 million barrels, further tightening supply. Brent crude settled at $84 per barrel,...
📈Money managers staged a near record buying spree in CBOT soybean futures & options in the week ended Feb. 10 on renewed U.S.-China optimism. New net long = 123,148 contracts. Net buying of 94k contracts was the second most for any...
Bids for Brazil's Santos/Tubarao and Barcarena/Itaqui corn cargo markets rose on Friday, driven by a sudden influx of buyers ahead of the Carnaval holiday. Sellers, however, remain reluctant to negotiate, limiting the sustainability of higher prices. Farmers are curbing forward...
U.S. corn prices remain buoyed by robust export demand that persisted into early 2025, according to Compeer Financial economist Megan Roberts. While prices are still below target levels, the export momentum offsets downward pressure. Roberts noted that a nationwide E15...
U.S. cotton growers are scaling back planting this spring as production costs surge 30% and farmgate prices slump, according to National Cotton Council data. The National Cotton Council’s grower survey shows intended acreage dropping to nine million acres, down from...
Brownfield Ag News reported mixed grain and livestock futures on February 13, 2026. Corn edged higher to $4.31 per bushel, while soybeans fell to $11.33. Livestock showed divergent moves: feeder cattle rose 42 cents to $366.15, whereas lean hogs slipped 55 cents to $91.27....
The USDA’s Farm Service Agency has released $1.89 billion in Emergency Livestock Relief Program (ELRP) payments, representing the final disbursements for producers who applied for 2023‑2024 flood and wildfire assistance. Recipients who previously received partial payments will now receive a second...
Argentina’s early‑February drought is already cutting corn and soybean yields, with Córdoba corn farmers reporting 10‑20 % losses and average yields falling to 6.4‑7 t/ha. In the core soy region, more than 500,000 t of soybeans are lost, pushing yields to about 3.8 t/ha....
In this episode, host examines the disconnect between grain futures narratives of abundant supply and weak demand and the reality observed in cash markets, emphasizing that U.S. farmers are still selling despite thin margins. The discussion highlights how rising cash...
U.S. weather forecasters see a shift from La Niña to El Niño by summer, driven by warming central Pacific waters. The transition is expected to bring a wetter spring and an early‑summer rain pulse before a drier late‑season spell. Experts cite analog...
Fastmarkets announced a correction to several EU biodiesel FOB ARA prices published on February 13, 2026, after a calculation error incorporated prior‑day data. The revised figures show modest adjustments, such as UCOME outright rising to $1,419.50 per tonne and RME...
The EPA’s own analysis shows that eliminating federal greenhouse‑gas standards for cars could lift gasoline prices by up to 29% by 2050, adding roughly 75 cents per gallon in constant dollars. Over the 2026‑2055 horizon, consumers may face a net...
The episode reviews the day's agricultural market activity, noting a shift toward consolidation and profit‑taking ahead of the President’s Day holiday, which typically boosts contract positioning. It highlights mixed South American weather impacts, with particular focus on Argentina’s continued crop...
The episode reviews how the U.S. aluminum market is coping with volatility caused by the 50% import tariff introduced in June, examining its impact on industry sentiment and pricing. Experts discuss the shifting demand landscape, noting the slowdown from removed...
Lithuania warned it may negotiate a stand‑alone critical minerals agreement with the United States if the European Union fails to deliver a bloc‑wide pact promptly. The move aims to secure rare‑earths, battery metals and other strategic inputs for its defense...
Midday cash cattle markets stayed quiet, with Nebraska bids at $238 live and Texas asking $245‑247 live but little action. At Wheeler Livestock Auction, steers under 650 lb rose $5‑16 while larger steers held steady and heifers showed mixed price moves....
Cash dairy prices were largely unchanged on Friday, with most commodities holding steady on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Butter slipped $0.03 to $1.7050 per pound after Thursday’s gain, while nonfat dry milk edged up $0.0025 to $1.60. Dry whey, 40‑pound...
Political scrutiny of the EU emissions trading system intensified in mid‑February, pushing the front‑year EU ETS contract down almost 6% on Feb 5 and a further 7% after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s comments. EU officials denied reports of extending free‑allowance allocations beyond...
Fastmarkets announced that its latest Turkey flat steel price assessments were released with a one‑hour delay. The delayed release includes eight indices covering hot‑rolled, cold‑rolled, galvanized and pre‑painted coils across import, export and domestic EXW/FOB terms. These prices are part...
Indiana corn prices averaged $4.45 per bushel in 2025 and futures suggest 2026 prices will cluster between $4.11 and $4.73 per bushel. Based on these projections, feed‑cost indices for farrow‑to‑finish and swine‑finishing operations are expected to dip slightly below 2025...
Brent crude option skew—which many have been treating as a proxy of oil market Iran risk perception (see comp to June 2025)—continues to deflate. Down more than half from a week ago, with prices down ~$3/bbl from Wednesday high. Gives a sense...
Kuwait's production capacity was ahead of the UAE's in 2010. Now it is 3.2 Mbpd versus 4.85 Mbpd Budget break-even is $90.5 per bbl and oil is 83% of the budget https://t.co/1si82Sc7pF
Slovakia and Hungary have reported a complete halt of Russian crude deliveries through the Druzhba pipeline, marking the latest escalation in the energy conflict between Moscow and Kyiv. Simultaneously, a series of drone attacks this week have damaged several Russian...
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 📈📉Crude prices rise on Hormuz advisory before falling back on the prospect of longer US-Iran talks, with headlines dotted with a flurry of US sanctions relief on Venezuela’s oil sector. Summary below, link to full report in...
This is an interesting oil market transparency development. Argus "will assess three grades of Venezuelan crude oil, Merey, Hamaca and Boscan, for delivery to the U.S. Gulf coast, which Argus said is now the most likely destination for Venezuelan cargoes" https://t.co/RaKzvH53Rp
Fastmarkets announced a 16‑minute delay in publishing three key price assessments for vanadium pentoxide, tungsten APT, and tungsten concentrate. The delayed entries—MB‑V‑0001, MB‑W‑0001, and MB‑W‑0005—are part of the company’s ores and alloys pricing package. Fastmarkets provided contact details for feedback...
