Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
NCGA Survey Reveals Growing Fertilizer Cost and Supply Concerns Among U.S. Corn Farmers
The National Corn Growers Association’s March 2026 surveys reveal U.S. corn farmers are facing unprecedented fertilizer affordability challenges. Farmers now require 185 bushels of corn to buy a ton of urea, the highest ratio on record, while concerns about 2027 fertilizer costs are nearly twice those for 2026. Industry leaders Mosaic and J.R. Simplot are urging the continuation of countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate imports, a move that sustains higher prices. The survey underscores growing anxiety over supply reliability as global tensions persist.
Why High Oil Prices Are Good for Oil Companies — Until They Aren't
Oil prices have surged to $90‑$100 a barrel after the Iran conflict, delivering a multi‑billion‑dollar profit boost for U.S. producers such as ExxonMobil. However, the windfall is tempered by hedging contracts that lock many firms to $57 per barrel and...
Gold ETF Outflows Hit Record in March as Asian Buying Offsets Western Selling
Gold-backed exchange‑traded funds recorded a historic $11.8 bn outflow in March, equivalent to roughly 85 tonnes of physical gold, as North American investors fled the market. The sell‑off ended nine months of net inflows, with SPDR Gold Shares shedding $8.4 bn and...
UK Farmers Warn Iran Ceasefire Too Late to Stop Higher Food Costs
UK farmers warn that a two‑week Iran ceasefire arrives too late to curb soaring input costs that are already baked into this planting season. Independent data from the Andersons Centre shows farm‑running expenses are over 7% higher year‑on‑year, with fertiliser...
Negative Electricity Prices Return to France, Germany
Negative hourly electricity prices resurfaced in France and Germany last week, with Germany posting a daily average of -$19.0/MWh and France -$4.2/MWh. Seven major European markets recorded weekly average prices below $116/MWh, the lowest level of the year, while Italy...
Global LPG Conversations
In this episode of Global LPG Conversations, Argus SVP David Appleton and consulting head Jack Greenwood field unanswered questions from a recent webinar, focusing on the market fallout from the April 8 cease‑fire announcement between the US and Iran. They...
Batteries Reshape Solar Pricing in California Market
Aurora Energy Research reports that California’s growing battery fleet is lifting the value of negatively priced solar electricity by up to $42 per megawatt‑hour in the CAISO wholesale market. On March 20, 2026, more than 3 GW of storage assets bought electricity, injecting...
Gold Exports Fetch US$278.5 Million in February as Deliveries Surge
Zimbabwe’s gold export earnings jumped to US$278.5 million in February 2026, a 138% increase over the same month a year earlier. The surge was driven by a sharp rise in deliveries from the artisanal and small‑scale mining (ASM) sector, which supplied...
Macquarie Boosts 2026 Nickel Forecast Amid Tight Indonesian Supply
Macquarie raised its 2026 nickel forecast as Indonesia ore tightness and slower supply growth tighten market balance. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/macquarie-nickel-price-outlook-turns.html
Feedgrain Focus: Dry North Lifts Values, South Softens
Dry conditions in northern Australia have forced growers to hold back wheat and barley, lifting new‑crop prices to about $425 AUD per tonne (≈$280 USD). In contrast, southern regions are seeing softer grain values as limited export demand, a urea shortage and...
WTI Crude Plummets 13% in One Day, Biggest Since 1986
WTI Crude is down over 13% in a single day. One of the largest declines since 1986.
Gold, Silver Rate Today, 9 April: Check Live Price of 24 Kt, 22 Kt, 18 Kt Gold and 10 Gm,...
Gold and silver prices in India slipped on 9 April as investors grew cautious amid rising crude‑oil prices following the Israel‑Lebanon clash. MCX gold opened at a downside gap of ₹1,50,647 per 10 gm but recovered above ₹1,51,000, ending 0.5% lower than...
COPX: Copper Rush Is Just Getting Started
The Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) offers high‑beta, diversified exposure to a copper sector poised for strong growth as AI‑driven data center construction accelerates demand. Structural supply constraints, including declining ore grades and limited new projects, are tightening the...
PPA Slowdown – Temporary or Permanent?
The episode examines why Europe’s power purchase agreement (PPA) market has slowed, highlighting a shift from a high‑growth phase to a mature, risk‑focused regime driven by falling capture rates, negative prices and market saturation. Guests Alina Travattoni and Luca Pedretti...
Crude Oil Prices Rebound Amid Uncertainty over US-Iran Ceasefire; Goldman Sachs Cuts Q2 Forecast to $90
Crude oil prices rebounded on April 9, with Brent climbing to $96.71 and WTI to $97.01, as doubts over a fragile US‑Iran cease‑fire revived supply‑risk concerns. The rally followed a 15% drop the previous day and was mirrored on India’s...
The Commodities Feed: Hormuz Remains Blocked for Now
Oil prices rebounded on Thursday, with ICE Brent climbing over 3% to trade above $97 per barrel as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains halted. U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly rose by 3.1 million barrels, the highest level since June...
Podcast: Australian Beef’s Brightest | Cattle Price Drop | Senator’s Fuel Solution
The latest "Week in Beef" podcast features NSW agent Michael Purtle recounting his experience in the National Young Auctioneers competition, while Nationals senator Susan McDonald outlines strategies to mitigate fuel shortages affecting remote cattle operations. James Carter from the Intercollegiate Meat...
Russia Tempts Energy-Starved South Asia with 40% Discounts on US-Sanctioned LNG
Russia is courting energy‑short South Asian nations by offering LNG from U.S.-sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 and Portovaya plants at roughly a 40% discount to spot prices. The discount is being brokered through obscure Chinese and Russian intermediaries who can falsify paperwork to...
Will US Diesel Inventories Decline to Record Low?
U.S. diesel inventories slipped by 2.1 million barrels in the latest weekly report, pushing total stocks to roughly 5.5 million barrels, the lowest level in over a decade. Refinery utilization climbed to 94%, indicating strong production capacity that is unable...
From War to Weather: A 'Super El Niño' Event Poses Fresh Risks to Global Food Costs
A potentially “super El Niño” is forecast for late 2026, raising the risk of severe drought and heat across major agricultural regions. The weather threat compounds already‑high fertilizer and energy prices caused by the Iran‑Hormuz conflict, which has choked roughly one‑third...
Kay’s Cuts: US Consumers Firing up the Summer Grill
The U.S. grilling season is kicking off as beef prices hit historic highs, with all‑fresh retail beef reaching $9.64 per pound and Choice‑grade climbing to $10.12 per pound in February. Ground beef surged 16% year‑over‑year to $6.90 per pound, while...
UK Becomes Top Destination for US Jet Fuel
U.S. jet fuel exports have surged to the United Kingdom, making the UK the top overseas destination for American jet fuel. The shift follows a supply squeeze in the Gulf region, where refinery outages and geopolitical tensions have limited output....
US Oil Exports to Hit Record as Iran War Triggers Race for Supplies
U.S. crude oil exports are set to break records, driven by a sharp surge in demand after the Iran‑Israel conflict disrupted Middle‑East supplies. Analysts project daily shipments to top 5.5 million barrels, eclipsing previous highs. The spike reflects both higher production...
The Oil Market Navigates a Shaky Ceasefire
The fragile Middle East cease‑fire, strained by recent Israeli strikes on Lebanon, is rattling global oil markets as supply‑risk anxieties rise. Saudi Arabia’s key east‑west pipeline has been hit, further tightening the market. Meanwhile, Pakistan is acting as a back‑channel...
Lower Petrol Prices Imminent as Global Oil Prices Plunge 15%
Global oil markets tumbled after President Donald Trump announced a two‑week US‑Iran ceasefire, sending Brent crude down 15% to $92 per barrel and WTI to $92.5. The price shock quickly filtered to Nigeria, where the Dangote Refinery reduced its pump...
Goldman Cuts Q2 Oil to $90/$87, Keeps $82/$80 Brent and $77/$75 WTI Outlook
Goldman Sachs lowered its second‑quarter oil price outlook, projecting Brent at $90 and WTI at $87 per barrel, reflecting a fading geopolitical risk premium. The revision follows early signs that crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are improving after...
Perth Mint Gold, Silver Sales Drop Sharply in March After Price Slide
The Perth Mint reported a sharp March slowdown in retail precious‑metal sales, with gold shipments falling 35% month‑on‑month to 43,656 ounces and silver output dropping nearly 50% to 976,450 ounces. The decline followed an 11% slide in spot gold and...
War Exposes Oil‑driven Plastic Addiction, Urging Weaning
One of the silver lining of this war is that people are realizing how oil dependent we are, not just via transportation but in daily lives. Plastic, light, durable and cheap have been a plague to Asia's water ways, is...
Massive Oil Shut‑ins: ~13 M B/D, Saudi, Iraq Overstated
Missing Qatar with max 0.6 Mb/d shut in But the Iraq figure is too high, more like 3.3 Mb/d Saudi figure also looks high; was 10.5 Mb/d pre-war and 6-7 Mb/d moving to Red Sea
Diesel Supply, Pricing Prospects Outshine Those of Urea: Whitelaw
A cease‑fire between Iran and the United States could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a 20% drop in global crude prices, but Australian diesel and urea markets remain under pressure. Diesel prices have roughly doubled to about $3.20 AUD/L (≈$2.12 USD)...
Russia Offers Sanctioned LNG to South Asia at 40% Discount
Russia is offering to sell US-sanctioned LNG to South Asian buyers at a *40% discount* 🇷🇺🚢 Moscow is seeking to leverage the global natural gas crunch to lure energy-hungry countries like Bangladesh and India https://t.co/SsirotyuhI
US Crude Inventories Plunge, Prices Set to Surge
The US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock just released at 3.72 M, DECREASING significantly from 10.26M the month prior. With the supply cutting off, it’s not a surprise that we are draining down reserves. When you reach the bottom of the tank,...
Iran Ceasefire Still Leaves Airlines Facing High Fuel Costs, Even if Peace Endures
A two‑week cease‑fire announced on 8 April temporarily eased financial markets, but oil prices remain well above pre‑conflict levels. Reduced refinery capacity in Iran and a lingering backlog of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have pushed jet‑fuel prices to...
Rising Oil Prices Prove Tough Talk Fails
Let's see, the Strait isn't open, oil prices are rising. Yeah, it really worked, just like Trump's tough talk with Kim Jong Un got him to surrender his nukes.
13 Mmb/D Offline, 1‑3 Month Recovery, 1 Billion Barrels Lost
A staggering 13 mmb/d is offline says @EnergyAspects THIS IS NOT OVER--not even close, writes @ericnuttall 1-3 months recovery is a best case scenario That means 1 billion barrels lost Ceasefire blah blah blah #OilMarkets #Energy #Geopolitics https://t.co/pBlqzN8aWe
No Aussie Gas and Power Shock
Australia’s east‑coast gas export cartel is keeping domestic gas prices anchored at roughly $10 AU per gigajoule (about $6.6 USD), despite a sharp rise in Asian spot prices that hover around $30 AU per GJ. Weather patterns and a slowing Australian economy are...
Idle LNG Tankers Stall Qatar's Production Restart
CEASEFIRE DAY 2: None of the LNG tankers stuck in the Persian Gulf appear to be heading towards Hormuz 🚢⚠️ They're all idling. Without this traffic resuming, it will be challenging for Qatar to significantly restart production at the world's biggest...
Closed Hormuz Sets $100 Brent Floor, Rumors Fade Fast
As long as Hormuz is effectively closed, prices have a floor & it's about $100 Brent, writes @gbrew24 It doesn’t matter who’s shooting—the system is responding. Selling the rumor has a short life expectancy #OilMarkets #Energy #Geopolitics
US‑Iran Ceasefire Triggers 16% Oil Price Drop but Global Economy Still Faces Geopolitical Headwinds
The United States and Iran agreed to a two‑week ceasefire, sending Brent crude down 16% to $93 a barrel and lifting equity markets worldwide. Yet analysts warn that the temporary truce leaves oil‑supply risks, inflation pressures and growth outlooks vulnerable...
Brent Rebounds Above $97, Still Far From $110 Peak
Brent crude back above $97, still well below the $110 we were at pre-“ceasefire” announcement, but ~$7 off this morning’s low. https://t.co/I0q5dXg0RD
Ceasefire Uncertain, Hormuz Still Blocked, Oil Market Stressed
Spoke with @PnPCBC earlier today about the Iran War "ceasefire", how the rough first day still had plenty of fire on both sides, how flow through Hormuz has yet to actually resume, and what it all means for the supply-starved...
Exxon, Shell See Silver Linings as War Disrupts Operations
Shell and Exxon Mobil saw Middle‑East war disruptions curtail production and trade flows, yet first‑quarter results revealed that soaring oil prices and regional arbitrage lifted earnings. Both majors posted higher realized margins as Brent and WTI rallied above $90 per barrel....
Gas Hits $4.14, Fueling War‑Driven Affordability Concerns
According to AAA, the national average cost of a gallon of gas has climbed to $4.14, marking a new 4-YEAR HIGH. THE WINDS OF WAR = HIGHER GASOLINE PRICES = MORE AFFORDABILITY PROBLEMS FOR TRUMP. https://t.co/PGOEBMp3lS
Secure Hormuz Passage, Markets Pay Billions for Stability
Pay the toll — move the oil. If you guarantee safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, markets will pay. Certainty lowers risk. Risk moves prices. And when 21% of the world’s oil is on the line, stability is worth billions https://t.co/m4JhLddeJq
Tehran Takes the Strait — and the Premium
Iran maintained roughly 1.9 million barrels‑per‑day of crude exports in March, even as rival Gulf shipments were curtailed. By restricting Hormuz traffic to vessels linked to Tehran, the country turned the strait into a de‑facto gatekeeper, limiting eastbound supply. This scarcity...
Traders Bet $950M Oil Drop Ahead of Trump Ceasefire
JUST IN: Traders placed $950,000,000 in bets on oil prices falling just hours before President Trump announced ceasefire with Iran
West Asia Conflict Deals a Double Whammy to India’s Farm Sector: Pre-Harvest Cost Pressures, Post-Harvest Shipping Delays
India’s farm sector is hit by a double shock: pre‑harvest input costs and labour shortages are rising, while post‑harvest shipments of perishables are stalled due to the West Asia conflict. Crude oil prices have jumped to $120 a barrel, inflating...
Ceasefire Doesn't Lower Hormuz Disruption Risk After August
I've been watching oil forward prices for markets assumed probability of Strait of Hormuz disruption 1, 2, 3, months out. Ceasefire has not changed probability of disruption from August onward. (NB: Warning, Claude generated figure)🧵1/n https://t.co/bKfB2j9tPA
Brent Oil Spot Price Above $120 in Sign that Iran Ceasefire Can't Solve Deep Disruption
Brent spot oil surged to $124.68 per barrel on April 8, roughly $30 above the June futures contract, underscoring persistent market tightness. Although the U.S.–Iran cease‑fire trimmed the premium by about $20, the spot price remains elevated, indicating that the five‑week...
Gold Steadies as Traders Weigh Fragile Ceasefire in Iran War
Gold steadied near $4,715 an ounce after a 1.5% rise over two sessions as traders weighed the prospect of diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran. The White House announced direct talks with Tehran, while Iran condemned Israeli strikes...