Today's Commodities Pulse
UK energy bills surge to two‑year high as Europe feels shock from Iran conflict
UK households are set to face their deepest‑unwelcome energy bill increase in two years as wholesale prices climb amid the Iran‑related war. Analysts say the conflict will push household energy costs higher for the first time across Europe.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
EIA Fuel Update Shows Rising Price Trend
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that regular gasoline prices climbed to $4.12 per gallon by April 6, up from $3.99 a week earlier and $3.09 a year ago. Regional data show the West Coast leading with $5.40 per gallon, while the Midwest lagged at $3.77. Independent trackers such as AAA and GasBuddy confirm the upward trajectory, citing an 11.8‑cent weekly rise and a month‑over‑month increase of 65.1 cents. Analysts warn that geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz could push the national average toward $4.20‑$4.35 in the coming days.
Indian Government Raises NBS for N, P, S
The Indian government increased the nutrient‑based subsidy (NBS) for nitrogen, phosphate and sulphur by 10% for the April‑September kharif season, while keeping the potash rate unchanged. Subsidy rates now stand at Rs 47.32/kg for nitrogen, Rs 52.76/kg for phosphate and Rs 3.16/kg for...
Proposal to Launch Price Assessment for Tungsten Unwrought Metal Bar, CIF Main Ports Europe, US, Japan
Fastmarkets has proposed a new weekly price assessment for unwrought tungsten metal bars of at least 99.8% purity, quoted CIF to major ports in Europe, the United States and Japan. The assessment, priced in U.S. dollars per kilogram, will cover...
Russia Oil Export Revenues Hit Highest Since Early Ukraine War as Prices Surge, Despite Ukrainian Port Attacks
Russian crude export revenues surged to about $2.02 billion per week, the highest level since June 2022, as global oil prices hit multi‑year highs. The rise was driven by a sharp increase in Urals prices above $116 a barrel and a narrowing...
Why Fuel and Food Prices Could Still Be Affected for Months
A tentative two‑week ceasefire in Iran has eased geopolitical tension, causing crude oil prices to tumble, yet they remain above pre‑war levels. Analysts warn that damaged Gulf production facilities and blocked shipments through the Strait of Hormuz will keep fuel...
Why Did Petrol and Diesel Prices Go up in Malaysia when Global Crude Oil Prices Went Down? MoF Explains
Malaysia’s weekly retail fuel prices rose this week even as global crude oil prices fell, prompting confusion among motorists. The Ministry of Finance explained that pump prices are calculated from the previous week’s average, not today’s spot price, and reflect...
Steel Tariffs Risk Supply Shortages, SAISC Warns
The Southern African Institute of Steel Construction (SAISC) warns that newly imposed anti‑dumping tariffs on selected steel imports are already prompting merchants to cancel or delay orders. While the tariffs aim to protect domestic producers, SAISC says the sudden rise...
U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Sends Wall Street Soaring, with Crude Oil Prices Down 16%
Wall Street rallied sharply after the United States and Iran announced a two‑week ceasefire that reopens the Strait of Hormuz, sending U.S. crude prices down about 16 percent. S&P 500 futures jumped 2.7%, Dow futures 2.6% and Nasdaq futures 3.4%...
High Fuel Prices Could Persist for 'Months,' Despite U.S.-Iran Ceasefire
Diesel prices jumped to a national average of $5.64 per gallon, more than $2 above last year, while gasoline rose 13 cents to $4.12 per gallon. The West Coast saw diesel near $7 per gallon, the highest regional level. Although...
US Ceasefire May Boost LPG, LNG Supplies to India in Short Term
The United States announced a two‑week ceasefire with Iran, easing the immediate bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz that has stranded dozens of LPG and LNG carriers. Analysts expect India’s LPG and LNG imports to restart within weeks, while crude...
IMF and World Bank Warn Middle East War to Spike Inflation and Slow 2026 Growth
The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank issued coordinated alerts that the war in the Middle East will tighten oil supplies, lift worldwide inflation and dampen global economic expansion in 2026, raising recession risks.
Oil Tumbles Below $100 After Trump Announces Two-Week Ceasefire
Oil fell below $100 a barrel after President Donald Trump announced a two‑week ceasefire with Iran, promising a safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent settled at $91.80 and WTI at $92.62, while European diesel dropped 20.8 percent to $1,210.50...
As War Premiums Hit Groceries, China Deals Give Africa Room to Breathe
The recent disruption of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed Brent crude above $100 per barrel, inflating diesel, fertilizer and food costs in vulnerable African economies. At the same time, China announced zero‑tariff access for imports from 53 African countries,...
Malaysian Fuel Prices, April 9 to 15, 2026 – Petrol up 40 Sen, RON95 to RM4.27; Diesel up 70 Sen,...
Malaysia's Ministry of Finance announced weekly fuel price adjustments for April 9‑15, 2026, raising unsubsidised RON95 petrol to RM4.27 per litre (≈ $0.94) and diesel B10/B20 to RM6.72 per litre (≈ $1.48). The premium RON97 also increased by 40 sen to RM5.35...
Iran Conflict: How Food Can Prepare for Fertiliser Shortages
The temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent fertilizer prices soaring 20‑45%, inflating costs for staple grains such as wheat, rice and maize. Experts warn that the chokepoint could shut again, exposing global food systems to recurring input shocks....
Tomatoes From Malaga Cost Nearly 3 Euros per Kilo at Origin
Tomato prices in Málaga’s greenhouse sector have surged to about €3 per kilogram, roughly $3.25, a record high. The Andalusian Price and Market Observatory reported average prices over €2/kg, nearly double the previous season and three times the first half...
EPA Increases Ethanol Content Of Gasoline
The EPA has issued a 20‑day emergency waiver allowing nationwide sales of E15, a gasoline blend with 15% ethanol, to counter soaring fuel prices that have topped $4 per gallon and $8 in California. Ethanol, primarily derived from corn, is...
Gold Climbs to Near Three-Week High After US, Iran Agree to Ceasefire
Gold surged to a near three‑week high, trading at $4,783.78 per ounce, after the United States and Iran announced a two‑week cease‑fire and opened talks on a permanent peace. The cease‑fire sent oil prices tumbling more than 13% below the...
2026 Energy Shock Peaks Far Below Past Records
The scorecard of the (so far) 2026 energy shock: (Peak price set during US-Iran war Feb 28-Apr 7 vs all-time high; in nominal terms) ⛽️ Brent oil: ~19% below 2008 peak 🔥 TTF nat gas: ~79% below 2022 peak 🔌 German power: ~89% below...
US Oil Faces Largest Daily Drop Since 2011
Though US oil is gradually creeping back up, the daily candle is still sporting its biggest single day drop outside (outside of the negative price fiasco of April 2020) since the market assurances following the Sep 11 attacks (specifically Sep...
Rosneft Tamps Down Profit Expectations From Soaring Prices
Rosneft reported an 18.8% drop in 2025 revenue to $105 billion, with EBITDA falling 28% to $27.7 billion and net income plunging 73% to $3.7 billion. The company cited volatile oil prices, a stronger ruble and intensified sanctions as primary headwinds, while higher...
US Crude Stocks Rise 3.1 Mb, Diesel Demand Flagged
EIA: US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.1 mb to 464.7 mb. Products declined. Watch diesel ... diesel., diesel. https://t.co/1mveIh80Nu
Only One State Faces Iran-Driven Electricity Hike
Most Americans Won’t See Electricity Prices Rise Because of Iran. This State Will. #energysky -- via Heatmap News https://t.co/gu4pNy9g1B https://t.co/vaUovVpRUC
‘I’m Not Doing This for Fun, I’m Fully Committed’: HBI Investor on $5.7 Bln Green Steel Push in Brazil
Brazil Iron’s Bahia project is a $5.7 billion effort to produce up to 15 million tonnes per year of hot‑briquetted iron (HBI), positioning Brazil as a major supplier of green steel feedstock. The venture has already invested about $1.7 billion, with 85% of...
Oil Near Support Level; Buyers May Return Amid Ongoing Conflict
Oil is coming into a level of interest that has been support since the conflict began. $CL_F $USO It would not surprise me to see it find buyers in this area again as the conflict has not been solved just...
Oil Forecasts Collapse; Trump Needs War Ended
I spent recent weeks pushing back on $150 or $200 oil price forecasts. Those are now firmly off the table. Brent futures are down sharply and that's right. There's lots of open questions, but the big picture is that Trump...
Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief
A two‑week ceasefire between the United States and Iran was secured, reopening the strategic Straits of Hormuz for vessel traffic. Crude oil prices plunged roughly $20 per barrel in overnight trading, while the U.S. dollar weakened sharply. U.S. equities and...
Iran Ceasefire Sends Oil Below $100, Stocks Surge
Iran ceasefire news just crushed oil under $100 and stocks are ripping higher. Risk-on mode is back in a big way. We'll be tracking these momentum moves live with the DOTS indicator in 2 hours to catch the best setups....
Normal Tanker Flows in 2‑3 Months; Products 6‑12 Months
If the ceasefire holds, expect 2–3 months before tanker flows and refinery feedstock delivery approach anything like normal, and 6–12 months before refined product markets (jet fuel, diesel, chemicals) fully normalize.
The Market Brief
The brief highlights a classic “TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out) scenario, where President Trump announced a two‑week cease‑fire with Iran just before the 8 p.m. deadline, underscoring his pattern of escalating crises to extract concessions. It links this political playbook to...
Ceasefire Boosts Risk Appetite, Markets Rally, Oil Plummets
Ceasefire Lifts Animal Spirits: Risk appetites have been excited by the two-week cease fire in the Middle East. Stocks and bonds have rallied strongly. The precious metals are higher. May WTI is off more than 15%. June Brent is about...
Oil Drops, Stocks Surge After US‑Iran Ceasefire
TACO Trade Is Back As Oil Falls, Stocks Rally on US-Iran Ceasefire - Business Insider https://t.co/Vei7jJ8uDy
Ukraine Torches Putin’s Iran War Windfall, as EU Allies Sweat over High Energy Prices
Ukraine’s intensified drone and missile strikes have knocked out roughly 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity, cutting about one million barrels per day from the market. The Kremlin responded by expanding a gasoline export ban to all producers until July...
Oil Prices Peaked on March 9, Not Today
i still think it's cool that despite all the hooplah you'll hear today about oil prices selling off (and some will even saying peaking), they topped a month ago, on March 9th (not yesterday)... just like volatility $VIX did... 🧐🤨🤓...
Delta Faces $2 Billion Fuel Cost Surge From Middle‑East Conflict
Latest: Delta Air Lines expects to incur more than $2 billion in higher fuel costs through June because of the US-Israel war on Iran https://t.co/pfNgi3ALzA
PepsiCo Warns of $2 Billion+ Snack Margin Hit as Chip Prices Soar
PepsiCo told investors that soaring chip costs—some bags now over $7 and Doritos up nearly 50% at Walmart—could shave billions off its snack margins. The company is rolling out price cuts of up to 15% while Elliott Management has taken...
US‑Iran Cease‑Fire Triggers 16% Brent Drop and Global Market Surge
The United States and Iran announced a two‑week cease‑fire, sending Brent crude tumbling 16% to about $93 per barrel. The relief in oil markets lifted Asian equity indices and U.S. futures, marking the day’s biggest geopolitical shock for the global...
Jamaica’s Fuel Tax Faces Backlash as Prices Jump $21‑$22.50 per Gallon
Mayberry Group Executive Chairman Christopher Berry called on the Jamaican government to slash the Special Consumption Tax on fuel after Petrojam raised gasoline prices by $21‑$22.50 over five weeks, making tax 31% of the pump price. The move comes amid...
U.S. and Iran Seal Two‑Week Cease‑Fire, Reopen Strait of Hormuz, Relieve Oil Shock
The United States and Iran announced a two‑week cease‑fire on April 7, ending active combat and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for over 20% of world oil. The deal includes Iran’s ten‑point peace plan, a $2 million per‑vessel transit fee...
Delta Hikes Bag Fees as Jet Fuel Spikes to $209 per Barrel
Delta Air Lines announced a $10 increase for the first and second checked bag and a $50 hike for a third bag on domestic and short‑haul routes. The move comes as jet fuel prices have surged to about $209 per...
How the Iran War Is Reordering the World, Second and Third-Order Effects
The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has quickly moved beyond battlefield strikes to generate sweeping second- and third-order effects. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut roughly 20% of global oil flow, sending Brent crude above $120 and triggering stagflationary...
Ceasefire Announced: Oil Below $100, US Market Futures up Sharply
A surprise two‑week cease‑fire between the United States and Iran caused oil prices to plunge below $100 per barrel, with Brent falling about 13% and U.S. benchmarks mirroring the drop. The sharp decline sparked a risk‑on rally, lifting S&P 500 and...
Which Power Markets Are Most Impacted by the Middle East Conflict?
Wood Mackenzie’s analysis of 13 major power markets shows that those heavily reliant on imported coal and gas could see generation costs jump by $8.30 per megawatt‑hour if current fuel price spikes persist through 2026. Japan, South Korea and Italy...
Thinking About Stagflation (Again)
The cease‑fire announcement in the Straits of Hormuz sparked a brief equity rally but left markets focused on energy‑related inflation risks. Oil futures have entered a steep backwardation, with 12‑month contracts priced over $30 below near‑term levels, while bond markets...
Voluntary Blending Rises as Biodiesel Premiums Turn Negative in the EU
Crop-based biodiesel in the EU fell below fossil diesel prices on April 2, with FAME 0 and RME premiums turning negative for the first time. The price gap, roughly $45 per tonne, makes a 7% biodiesel blend cheaper than pure...
A Robust Market Reaction to a Quite Fragile "Cease-Fire" In Iran.
The episode analyzes the market fallout from a fragile two‑week cease‑fire between Iran and Israel, focusing on oil logistics, price volatility, and speculative positioning. Hosts note that despite ongoing missile launches, the cease‑fire has sparked a sharp drop in Brent...
Chinese Interest in Iranian Oil Wanes as Discount Disappears
Chinese refiners are inquiring about Iranian oil, although it's not a wholesale rush given prices are still significantly higher than before the war (the ~$10 discount to Brent is gone). Story link at the end
Iran Conflict: Is Ceasefire Too Little, Too Late for Global Food?
The United States and Iran have agreed to a two‑week cease‑fire that temporarily reopens the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian military coordination. The strait carries about 30 % of global fertilizer shipments, making its partial reopening critical for agricultural input supplies....
Asia Pivots to Russian Oil Amid Middle East Turmoil
Asia’s energy reality is shifting FAST. As the Middle East’s supply of oil is disrupted by the US-Israeli war on Iran, countries are turning to Russian oil. RUSSIA = BIG WINNER. https://t.co/akGGPsbivA
Gas Prices React Asymmetrically to Oil Swings
Oil goes up, average gas price goes from $3 to $5.25 Oil goes down, average gas price goes from $5.25 to $5.24