Today's Commodities Pulse
UK energy bills surge to two‑year high as Europe feels shock from Iran conflict
UK households are set to face their deepest‑unwelcome energy bill increase in two years as wholesale prices climb amid the Iran‑related war. Analysts say the conflict will push household energy costs higher for the first time across Europe.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
European Markets Mixed as Iran Tensions Push Oil Prices Higher
European markets opened lower on Monday but quickly split, with Germany's DAX barely down 0.04%, while the FTSE 100 rose 0.59% and France's CAC 40 edged up 0.05%. The divergence follows a 50% jump in Brent crude since the Iran conflict began, pushing the benchmark above $116 a barrel and lifting U.S. crude to around $101. U.S. equities entered correction territory, with the S&P 500 down 2.1% for the week, as investors brace for higher inflation and supply risks. G7 finance leaders are convening an emergency meeting to address the escalating geopolitical fallout.
Prices of Asia-Pacific's Fertilisers, Petrochemicals Set to Surge on Iran War: ADB
The Asian Development Bank warns that the Iran‑Israel conflict is driving sharp increases in fertilizer and petrochemical prices across the Asia‑Pacific. Methanol benchmark prices rose about 25% in two weeks, while urea and ammonia costs surged after Qatar’s QAFCO halted...
WGC Urges Aussies to Buy Gold Amid Rate Hikes
World Gold Council says Australian investors should buy bullion’s price dip despite RBA rate rises https://t.co/xE9qJc1wol
Fuel Excise Halved, Truck Charges Removed for Three Months
The Australian federal government announced a temporary halving of the fuel excise, cutting pump prices by about 26.3 cents per litre, and reduced the heavy‑vehicle road user charge (RUC) to zero for three months. It also postponed a scheduled 6% RUC...
Brent: Closing in on Post-Strike Highs
Brent crude futures are climbing toward the highs seen after the recent oil strike, even as broader markets show unusual alignment. Meanwhile, U.S. agriculture is under pressure, with farm numbers down nearly 150,000 over five years and farmland shrinking by...
West Asia War Sparks Fuel, Beer and Fertilizer Shortages Across India
India’s brewers warn of glass bottle and aluminium can shortages as gas‑driven packaging costs surge, while farmers describe fertilizer as “as precious as gold” after Urea prices jumped to $600/ton. A parallel cash‑flow squeeze at fuel depots, caused by oil...
Maersk Adds Emergency Fuel Surcharge as Middle East Conflict Spikes Shipping Costs
Maersk announced an emergency fuel surcharge and temporarily halted operations at its Salalah terminal after a drone attack injured a worker and damaged a crane. The move comes as the Israel‑Iran‑Houthi conflict closes the Strait of Hormuz and pushes global...
U.S. Gasoline Nears $4 a Gallon as Iran War Fuels Energy Price Surge
U.S. pump prices are climbing toward $4 a gallon as the Iran‑Israel war drives crude above $100 a barrel and diesel to record levels. Analysts warn the surge could deepen stagflation, hitting families and farmers alike.
Oil Prices Rise as Iran War Escalates with Houthi Attacks
Oil prices jumped above $116 a barrel on Sunday as Iran‑backed Houthi militants fired missiles and drones at Israel, extending the conflict into its fifth week. Brent crude rose 3.3% to $116.25, while U.S. WTI climbed about 3% to nearly...
U.S. 50% Aluminum Tariff Seen as Counterproductive Amid Iran War Supply Shock
The United States’ 50% tariff on aluminum imports, lifted from a 10% rate in 2018, is being called counterproductive as the Iran‑Israel conflict chokes shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Industry analysts say the duty adds a “Midwest premium” that...
Irish Farmers Ask EU to Halt Carbon Levy on Fertiliser Amid Iran War Price Surge
Irish Farmers Association president Francie Gorman wrote to Agriculture Minister Martin Heydon demanding the EU suspend the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism for fertiliser imports. The plea comes as natural‑gas‑linked fertiliser prices have risen by about 66% since early March and...
U.S.-Iran Conflict Cripples Strait of Hormuz Oil Flows, Driving Brent to $113
U.S. and Iranian hostilities have slashed daily tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz by up to 95%, pushing Brent crude above $113 per barrel and inflating marine insurance to double‑digit percentages. The disruption fuels market anxiety while regional diplomats...
High Oil Prices Fuel Apac Energy Crisis as Middle East War Enters Fifth Week
Brent crude rose above $115 a barrel, up $3 over the weekend, as the Middle East war entered its fifth week. The conflict, which began on February 28 with Israeli and U.S. airstrikes in Iran, has tightened global oil supplies....
Hormuz Closure’s Oil “Air Pocket” Hits Regions Sequentially
I’ve been describing the supply loss from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as an “air pocket” moving through the normal flow of oil out of the Gulf Helpful map from JPM highlighting when that air pocket will “land” in...
Oil and Fertilizer Prices May Soon Have Ripple Effects on These 3 Commodities Stocks
The Strait of Hormuz blockade is pushing oil and natural‑gas prices higher, which in turn is inflating fertilizer costs. The article spotlights three commodity‑linked stocks that could benefit: CF Industries, whose North‑American gas access fuels strong earnings of $1.46 billion in...
Oil Trade Has Begun for the Week - Prices Higher
Oil markets opened the week on a bullish note, with Brent crude climbing about $2.70 to roughly $115.30 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate rising $2.35 to near $102 per barrel. The gains came as U.S. equity index futures...
U.S. Allows Russian Oil Shipment to Cuba Amid Global Energy Disruptions
The United States has authorized a Russian‑flagged tanker, the Anatoly Kolodkin, to deliver between 650,000 and 730,000 barrels of crude oil to Cuba, temporarily easing a long‑standing de facto oil blockade. The move coincides with a broader, short‑term relaxation of Russia‑related...
Australian Doomsday April 20
Macquarie Bank warns that if the Iran‑Israel conflict keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed through June, crude could climb to a record $200 a barrel. The bank’s March 27 analysis stresses that prolonged closure would force prices high enough to erode...
The Key Precious Metals Charts To Watch Now
The author updates the key precious‑metal charts amid heightened market volatility driven by the Iran‑related oil price surge. Despite a sharp pullback, gold remains in an uptrend, as its 200‑day moving average stays upward‑sloping. The metal has become deeply oversold,...
Oil Prices Surge as Iran‑Israel Conflict Escalates, Sending Euro Stocks Tumbling
Oil prices jumped sharply after the Iran‑Israel conflict entered its fourth week, prompting a sell‑off in European equities. Traders cite higher energy costs and heightened geopolitical risk as the main drivers of the market slide.
Oil Could Spike to $150, Ignoring Market Risks
Larry Fink: oil could hit $150/bbl — even AFTER a ceasefire — if Iran remains a threat. Brent is already at $112. The tail risk isn't priced. Equities are still trading like this ends cleanly. What does $150 oil do to inflation? To...
Monday Briefing: National Cabinet’s Emergency Fuel Crisis Meeting
Australia faces a deepening petrol crisis as more than 500 service stations have run out of at least one fuel type, driving prices sharply higher. The shortage stems from the war sparked by the US and Israel in Iran and...
Hormuz Shutdown Creates Unprecedented Oil Supply Shock
Lotta people love to play with Hormuz offset balance math—and boy, oh boy, the numbers I've seen bouncing around... But let's keep it dead simple and focus on pure output: There's now ~10 MMbpd of crude oil production shut-ins confirmed across the...
Russia Was Expecting a Windfall From Soaring Oil Prices, but Relentless Ukrainian Drone Attacks Are Devastating Nearly Half Its Export...
Russia banked on a windfall after oil prices spiked when the Strait of Hormuz closed and the United States briefly eased sanctions on its crude. The surge lifted Urals prices near Brent, temporarily rescuing a revenue stream that had collapsed...
2026 Gold and Crude Face Pump‑Then‑Dump Risk
2026 Pump-Then-Dump Risks in Both Gold and Crude - Gold's big green 2026 annual candle to its Jan. 29 high of $5,595 an ounce risks turning red by year-end -- particularly if the Strait of Hormuz is secured -- with...
Refiners Shift to Brent as Dubai Benchmark Falters
JUST IN: Some oil refiners turn to Brent Oil as Dubai benchmark becomes increasingly unstable https://t.co/t3Ib44eX0I
US Invokes Defense Production Act to Boost Domestic Phosphorus Production
The U.S. government issued an executive order invoking the Defense Production Act to accelerate domestic mining and processing of elemental phosphorus, a critical input for glyphosate herbicides. The move seeks to reduce reliance on foreign sources amid global supply concerns.
Asian Demand Drives Brent Above $115 per Barrel
JUST IN: Asian buyers are bidding up Brent Crude Oil, paying steep premiums as supply tightens Pushing global oil prices upwards of $115/ barrel https://t.co/kh3DZ9EpdH
Oil Prices Surge to Target, Maintaining Brent Long Position
Oil going straight up to levels we were looking for - staying Long in Brent $BNO terms https://t.co/MJlPz9oFW6
LPG Shortage Forces Uttarakhand Hotels to Switch to Alternative Fuels
A West Asia conflict‑driven LPG shortage has hit Uttarakhand, forcing hotels and restaurants to turn to biogas, CNG and other alternatives. Operators cite rising costs and supply gaps, while officials warn the disruption could linger.
Middle East Tensions Push Gold to 4537.70 ORB
🌏 Asia ORB Set | GC High: 4537.70 | Low: 4511.80 🎬 Live trade 9am: https://t.co/UFRUqEw6Kf ─────── 🌍 Middle East tensions spike, driving safe-haven bids. ─────── 📊 Gold futures grinding higher, testing 4535.00 resistance. ─────── 🎯 Watch 4537.70 ORB high—break ignites bullish surge.
Speculators' Bullishness Matches 2021‑22 Despite Ample Supply
📈Speculators' grain & oilseed bullishness has reached the levels of late March 2021 & 2022, times when balance sheets certainly looked tighter than today. But are supplies at risk this year? Fewer corn acres? Big bean oil demand? Weather scare? Trade...
Small Brent Move Wipes Out $100 Profit
Just mentioned to my business partner (wife) that Brent opened at $16.25 Realized I’m now dropping the leading $100
US Gas Hits $4.10, Biggest 4‑week Jump in 30 Years
Gas prices in the US rose to $4.10 per gallon last week, their highest level since August 2022. The 33% increase over the last 4 weeks ($3.07/gallon to $4.10/gallon) is the biggest 4-week spike we've seen in the past 30 years....
Fertilizer Prices Surge 52%, Threatening Food Inflation
Fertilizer prices have moved up to their highest levels since September 2022, rising 52% YoY. About a third of global fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This will drive food price inflation higher in the coming weeks/months. https://t.co/KYmqkbca60
Iran War Triggers Double‑digit Commodity Price Surges
Price increases since the start of the Iran war... Heating Oil: +77% European Natural Gas: +71% Brent Crude Oil: +58% WTI Crude Oil: +51% Urea: +48% Diesel: +44% Sulfur: +43% Gasoline: +42% Fertilizer: +29% Coal: +21% Palm Oil: +14% Iron Ore: +7% Rice: +7% US Natural Gas: +6%
Physical Oil Prices Set to Pull Paper Market Up
My latest with @davidlin_TV on physical vs. paper oil markets: "The physical markets are trading well above the paper market prices. Eventually, the paper market is going to be MUGGED BY REALITY, & the price of the paper market will be...
2025‑26 Marks Oil Peak; Prolonged Disruption Likely Contracts Market
2025–26 likely marks the peak plateau for global oil @acidiclemon2 Everything depends on duration A quick resolution could trigger a price-driven rebound (low probability) Longer disruption==> contraction defines the years ahead (high probability) #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket
US Officials Anticipate Oil Soaring to $200 per Barrel
“.. US government officials and Wall Street analysts are starting to consider the prospect that oil prices might surge to an unprecedented $200 a barrel.” @business https://t.co/jKbSZuzsl7 https://t.co/RvefSmh0vP
10‑Year Treasury Yield Signals Oil’s Impending Downturn
Sec. Bessent, February 2025: "Judge us by the 10y UST yield." 10y UST yield (blue, RS) v. oil, since Bessent said that 👇 "3 Arrows" about to turn into "0-for-3 Arrows": https://t.co/goqhygmgv6
US Gas Prices Stay Low, Softening Energy Shock Impact
For the American economy, the key different between the current energy shock and previous ones is the (lack of) impact in US natural gas prices. That's crucial for industrial activity and electricity prices (and thus inflation). Far less reported than...
Gold Jumps 10% Post‑Crash: Bottom or Bull Trap?
Gold Price Forecast: Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Surges 10% After Crash—Bottom In or Bull Trap? https://t.co/CwnEhFzNtn $XAUUSD Weekly Chart https://t.co/NoYtoXTuYs
Oil Hits $99 Amid Tensions; Economy’s Resilience Tested
Oil spiked above $99 as Middle East tensions escalate. This week's jobs and confidence data will show if the economy can handle the shock or if cracks are starting to emerge. 🟢 Open https://t.co/muP4Yrt2q1
Turkey Sells Billions in Gold to Prop Lira
Turkey is selling gold to support the lira. Over the past two weeks, the central bank has sold around 58 tons (~$8 billion). At the same time, since 2020, Turkey has been among the top three gold buyers (alongside China and Poland)....
Europe’s Gas Prices Double US Levels Post‑Hormuz
Before the Battle for Hormuz, Europeans were paying about 3x more for nat gas than US consumers. Today, they are paying about 6x. Europe has to drill. Chart below is from my latest piece. https://t.co/pfIpV5UZy3
Rising Oil Prices Hurt Importers, Boost U.S. Exporter
"More expensive oil is bad for Europe, Japan and Korea, all big importers. It is actually a net benefit to the U.S., as an exporter and the world’s biggest producer." — The Wall Street Journal Russia and the Middle East also benefit.
Rising Diesel Prices Signal Delayed Inflation Surge
Diesel: $3.89 → $5.37/gal. Every truck. Every delivery. Every shelf. The inflation pipeline hasn't fully hit yet. Freight costs are the slow burn that shows up 60-90 days later. You haven't felt this yet. You will. $XLE $IYT https://t.co/OaV580UlNv
US Insulated From Global Gas Shocks After LNG Imports Surge
Correct. In the mid-2000s, FERC was full of applications to build LNG import terminals. In that world, global gas shocks like 2022 and today would cause US prices to spike, but today the U.S. is largely insulated.
Lithium Prices Could Double by 2026 Amid China Supply Panic
Interesting take. Always tough to predict #lithium price. I think a doubling from here in 2026 is rich but not impossible. China’s current supply freak-out is real.
Kalshi Predicts WTI Oil Hitting $139 by Year‑end
How high will WTI oil get by the end of the year? @kalshi market says $139 https://t.co/d9FiMu2DQS https://t.co/2ac3ey45Us