Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Gold & Silver Steady As The World Awaits The Big Decision
Gold and silver markets stayed relatively calm amid heightened geopolitical tension, with gold futures climbing $48 to $4,732 per ounce and silver rising 26 cents to $73.11 per ounce. Prices swung sharply throughout the day as traders weighed former President Donald Trump’s threat to "end the civilization" of Iran. The late‑day rally reflects a classic safe‑haven response to uncertainty. Investors remain on edge, awaiting a definitive U.S. policy signal on the Iran situation.
Claims Wild-Caught Australian Seafood Will Soon 'only Be Afforded by the Rich'
Australian wild‑caught seafood is facing a steep price surge as fuel costs for fishing vessels have doubled, pushing operating expenses from $54,000 to $100,000 per trip. A permanent ban on demersal fishing in Western Australia and the recent collapse of...
The Closer – Record Backwardation, Supply Chain Stress – 4/7/26
Brent spot prices have entered an unprecedented backwardation, trading more than $30 per barrel above the front‑month June Brent futures contract. The New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index and the Logistics Managers Index both recorded sharply rising prices...
4 Scenarios On How The Iran Conflict Could Reshape Energy Markets
The article outlines four plausible futures for global energy markets based on U.S. actions and Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz. A U.S. withdrawal could either restore the status quo or lock in a new normal of higher, volatile...
Live: Markets Brace for Iran War Deadline, Oil Prices Fall on Deal Hopes
Physical crude prices have surged to near $150 a barrel as Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz cuts roughly 12 million barrels per day from global supply. Dated Brent, the benchmark for immediate delivery, is trading about $20 above June...
Immediate Crude Cargo Prices Hit 2008 Peak
The price of crude cargoes for immediate delivery has soared to its highest level since 2008
DON'T PANIC, POSITION: Gold Miners Are Generating Historic Cash Flows Despite the Energy Shock and Why the Market's Fear of...
Gold miners are posting historic free cash flow despite a recent oil price surge from $70 to $110 per barrel and diesel costs doubling since February. A BMO study shows a $10 oil move raises mining costs by less than...
War-Driven Supply Squeeze Could Boost US Resins Exports in 2026
U.S. resin exporters are poised for another strong year in 2026 as the war in the Middle East tightens global feedstock supplies. Damage to Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG plant and the shutdown of Iran’s South Pars gas field have curtailed ethane and...
ASX Copper Players Step Into Action as Supply Shortage Looms
Copper prices surged to a record US$14,500 per tonne in January before easing below US$13,000, reflecting both short‑term disruptions and a long‑term supply deficit. The International Energy Agency warns of a 30% global copper shortfall by 2035 as ore grades...
Today's Brent Mirrors 2014 Levels After Inflation Adjustments
Dated Brent was at ~$105 in April 2014, before the BIG shale-induced rout in crude prices. Adjusting for inflation, that's roughly where we are today. And the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. (Also the lapsed appropriations note at the bottom of the BLS'...
Ethiopia’s Birr Slumps 107% as Fertilizer and Fuel Costs Surge, Threatening Record Wheat Harvest
Ethiopia’s birr has lost roughly 107% of its value against the dollar since July 2024, pushing fertilizer prices up 60% and fuel up 56%. The surge in input costs threatens to erode gains from a projected record 7 million‑metric‑ton wheat harvest...
India's FY27 Growth Forecast Cut to 6.8‑6.9% Amid Energy Shock and Middle East Conflict
ICICI Bank trimmed its FY27 GDP projection for India to 6.8‑6.9% from 7.2%, while Moody's downgraded its own estimate to 6% from 6.8%. Both agencies cite the ongoing West Asia war, soaring oil prices and constrained LPG and LNG supplies...
Can AI Get You Cheaper Gas? New Tool Promises Savings at the Pump
AI-driven website The Gas Index offers drivers real‑time, geolocated gas price data, helping them locate the cheapest pump. Built entirely with Claude Code, the platform pulls station prices through Google’s API and lets users specify their car model to estimate...
Fastmarkets to Change Frequency of US Delivered Tin Price
Fastmarkets announced that its US‑delivered tin price will now be published quarterly, shifting from more frequent updates. The change follows a methodology review that identified low spot liquidity and price volatility, and it was supported by market participants. The new...
Iran's Oil Revenues Soar Amid War-Driven Price Spikes
My view on Iran's surge in revenues since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran with @CoffeeandaMike: "Since the war started, the Iranians have been shipping a lot more crude out of the Strait of Hormuz, they've been selling at...
Daily Energy Report
The April 7, 2026 Daily Energy Report updates Western Canada’s crude export mix, showing Asian markets—especially China—still dominate shipments. China accounts for more than half of the total volume, while the United States’ western region sees fluctuating deliveries between 80,000 and 180,000...
Fertilizer Spike Adds up to $35/Acre for US Corn as Iran Crisis Deepens
Rising fertilizer prices triggered by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have created a sharp supply shock for nitrogen, phosphate and sulfur products. Rabobank estimates the urea price surge adds up to $35 per acre to US corn...
How Serious Will the Jet Fuel Crisis in Europe Become?
Jet fuel prices have jumped 95% since the February attacks on Iran, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz cut roughly 20% of global seaborne jet‑fuel supply. European airports are already imposing restrictions, and airlines such as SAS have...
Silver Nears End of Correction, Buy Above 68
Silver nears end of corrective phase; hold 66–68 support. If price stabilizes above 68–70, buy with targets 82/100; risk below 66. Volume and volatility compression support accumulation. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
The Iran War Is Disrupting More Than Oil. Here’s What Could Get Expensive Next
The Iran‑Israel conflict is rippling through global commodity markets, pushing aluminum, helium, fertilizer, sulfur and plastics into shortage zones. Since February, aluminum has risen about 12% to $3,411 per metric ton after attacks on Middle‑East smelters, while helium supplies are...
Russia’s Scrap Sector Grapples with Export Ban Concerns, Demand Changes
Russia’s scrap metal industry is embroiled in a debate over a proposed export ban, with officials warning it could curb competition and lift domestic prices. At the same time, leading steel producers such as Magnitogorsk and Severstal are sharply reducing...
EIA: Brent Crude to Reach $115/Bbl in Second-Quarter 2026
The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects Brent crude will climb to about $115 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026, up from a March average of $103. The rise reflects a sharp tightening in supply as Gulf producers curtail...
Fastmarkets Suspends 10 Steel Pipe Prices, CFR Jebel Ali
Fastmarkets announced the suspension of ten steel pipe price assessments for the CFR Jebel Ali market, covering both seamless and welded OCTG casings and linepipe grades. The suspension follows ongoing disruptions caused by the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict, which has hampered regional deliveries...
Oil Prices Rise Ahead of Trump's Deadline to Reopen Hormuz
Oil prices surged on April 7 as President Donald Trump set a final deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, pushing U.S. WTI up 3.9% to $116.83 a barrel and Brent to $110.55. The heightened geopolitical risk dragged the...
Impending Bahrain Conflict Could Trigger Oil Market Catastrophe
I sat down with @JoshYoung, CIO of Bison Interests - the fund that returned 349% in a single year on oil. He told me this war is far from over. And the real crisis hasn't even started. "I don't think the market...
Fuel Prices Likely to Rise Months Despite Hormuz Reopening
Fuel prices could keep rising for months even if Hormuz reopens, US EIA says https://t.co/4IPPfkJ9X9
Energy Storage Pricing Beginning to ‘Fracture’ by Product Type: Report
Anza Renewables reports a widening price gap between U.S. utility‑scale and distribution‑scale energy storage in Q1 2026, with utility‑scale costs dropping up to 20.9% while distribution‑scale prices remain flat around $203/kWh (AC) and $175/kWh (DC). The United States installed a...
Oil Benchmark Hits Record, Reflecting Iran War Shortages
A key benchmark for physical oil has surged to its highest level on record, showing that global crude markets are increasingly pricing in supply shortages caused by the Iran war. https://t.co/OCII5LIP6Z https://t.co/V7iFSd47Gu
Brazil Soybean Exports Dip, China Share Hits 7‑year Low
🇧🇷Brazil's March soybean exports hit 14.5 million metric tons, *down* 1% from last March. But the more interesting story might be the unusually large non-China share. Only 69% of Brazil's March exports went to China, the month's lowest in 7 years...
Cash Dairy Prices Steady-to-Lower Tuesday
Cash dairy prices were largely unchanged Tuesday, with most commodities holding steady or slipping slightly. Dry whey remained flat at $0.69 per pound, while cheese blocks held at $1.6725 per pound after four sales. Butter edged down $0.0050 to $1.7475...
Physical Brent Hits $150 Before Options Predict It
While the options market bets on Brent crude futures hitting a record $150 a barrel, in the physical market cargo prices have already got there https://t.co/mfaujswneF
Oil Shock Dampened: Prices Below Peaks, Economy Decouples
So far this oil shock is not quite at the level of previous shocks. 1. Inflation adjusted, prices still aren't at their highest 2. The world's economy is less coupled to oil than in years past.
Midday Cash Livestock Markets
Midday cash cattle trading remained inactive on April 7, with no bids and lower showlists across feeding regions, pushing expected volume to later in the week. Boxed beef prices showed a mixed picture as Choice fell $1.87 to $386.17 while Select...
Trump Admin Warned of $200 Oil, Brent Hits $144
Two weeks ago, we scooped that the Trump administration was modeling the impact of oil prices reaching as high as $200 a barrel due to the #IranWar. Dated Brent oil just hit a record about $144...
Consumers Face up to $420 Electricity Price Gap
Bill shock: The up to $420 price gap between “median” electricity plans and lowest deals on offer #energysky -- via Renew Economy: https://t.co/sAmvh3Vg1x https://t.co/netLpw5rGJ
Hassett Has Stark Message for Investors Watching Gas Prices
Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, warned that the U.S. campaign against Iran will keep gasoline prices elevated, contradicting administration statements that the spike is temporary. The Energy Information Administration now projects average retail gasoline above $3 per...
Inflation‑Adjusted Six‑Month Futures Spread Near Record
"After adjusting for inflation, the six-month futures spread is on course to exceed the previous record set in October 1990, after Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait and as the United States and its allies massed forces in the Gulf." @JKempEnergy https://t.co/26TVbx2H9d
General Caine Warns Iran Could Block Vital Hormuz Strait
MUST READ: “General Caine […] also flagged the enormous difficulty of securing the Strait of Hormuz and the risks of Iran blocking it. Mr. Trump had dismissed that possibility on the assumption that the regime would capitulate before it came...
Jeffrey Sherman on Oil, Deficits and the Private Credit Liquidity Trap | Bloomberg
Jeffrey Sherman, DoubleLine’s deputy CIO, warned that rising oil prices and energy‑sector infrastructure damage could sustain inflation longer than markets expect, pressuring global growth. He argued that higher energy costs function as a de‑facto monetary tightening, reducing the likelihood of...
WTI‑Brent Spread Hits Near‑record $5.83, Volatility Spikes
The US benchmark crude (WTI) premium to the UK grade (Brent) has extended as high as $5.83 today. Only two other times in history has the spread shot this high. Implied volatility (OVX) has only been higher when crude oil (futures) prices...
Chinese Sulphur Prices Surge Daily, Threatening Food Costs
I repeat, Chinese sulphur prices are up literally every day (save two) since war began. 24/26 Odds of this happening (if this was a coin flip) are 1 in ~200,000 This will have consequences for fertilizer and therefore food prices. 1/3
Data Center Power Crunch Pushes Grid Operators to Rethink Pricing
Data‑center capacity in major metros hit a historic 1.4% vacancy rate, while the average asking price for power jumped 6.6% to $196.25 per kW‑month. The surge in electricity demand is straining grids and prompting regulators to consider charging firms for...
Chinese Sulphur Prices Surge, 24 of 26 Days Up
Sulphur in China is up every day since this tweet. Chinese Sulphur has had two down days since the beginning of the war on February 28th (24/26 days positive). https://t.co/yyTujRfjYK
Early Ceasefire Needed
“5/15..the [oil] storage..deficit becomes mathematically irreversible for winter 26/27... rationing...” “On 4/28,..spring nitrogen application window closes. No ceasefire..after..can restore '26 crop yields.” “ceasefire by 4/14..constitutes cascade deceleration [not recovery].“
How Tariffs And The Strait Of Hormuz Crisis Are Inflating Tomato Prices
The U.S. withdrew from the long‑standing Tomato Suspension Agreement with Mexico and imposed a 17 % duty on fresh Mexican tomatoes, cutting off roughly two‑thirds of the nation’s supply valued at $3 billion annually. The tariff alone is projected to raise retail...
Customers Adjust Prices Amid Rising Fuel Costs
Truckers: how are customers dealing with fuel spikes? Are you getting price adjustments? (Pic from Gary Johnson out of Needles, CA) https://t.co/Hi9h5ywOyg
Futures
The oil futures market continues to price a big TACO. Physical oil quotes are sky high, but futures imply a significant improvement in supply in a few weeks. If the market moves to priced a much longer disruption — and see below...
Jet Fuel Supply Concerns Grow as War with Iran Drags on, Airlines Cut Flights
Jet fuel prices in the United States have nearly doubled since late February, driven by the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran and the resulting closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The spike is forcing major carriers such as Lufthansa, United and...
Soybean Complex Becomes Oil‑Driven as CBOT Oilshare Hits Record
📈CBOT oilshare on Tuesday reached a modern-day record high of 52.8%, driven by unrelenting strength in soybean oil since the beginning of the year. This means the soybean complex is more oil-led than ever before, a departure from how the complex...
Southeast Nebraska Farmer Sees $50K Spike in Fertilizer Costs
Nebraska farmer Ben Steffen reported a $50,000 jump in fertilizer expenses as the 2026 growing season begins, compounding an already red‑lined operation. He also anticipates an additional $4,000‑$5,000 in diesel costs over the next eight weeks. Similar input‑price pressures are...