Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Jet Fuel Crisis to Last Months Even After Iran-US Ceasefire, IATA Warns
IATA warns that jet fuel shortages will linger for months despite the tentative reopening of the Strait of Hormuz following a US‑Iran ceasefire. Damage to regional refining capacity means crude flows alone cannot quickly restore supply, leaving airlines with higher operating costs. Jet fuel prices have more than doubled, prompting carriers to raise ticket prices and adjust routes. The disruption is expected to outlast the immediate conflict, extending the aviation sector’s recovery timeline.
RBI Ups Crude Oil, Exchange Rate Baseline Assumptions for FY27
The Reserve Bank of India raised its FY27 baseline crude‑oil price to $85 per barrel, up from $70 in the second half of FY26, and lifted its rupee projection to 94 per dollar, up from 88. The revision follows a...
LNG Carriers: The Shipbuilding Boom Meets a Geopolitical Storm
LNG carriers have seen spot freight rates explode from roughly $42,000 to $300,000 per day after Iran‑linked strikes shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting about 22% of global LNG exports. The surge is a disruption‑driven signal, not a structural shift,...
Oil Prices Plunge 15% to Below $100, Stocks Surge and Dollar Slumps After Trump Announces US-Iran Ceasefire – Business Live
Oil prices dropped more than 15% to under $100 a barrel after the United States and Iran announced a two‑week conditional cease‑fire and a temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The news sparked a broad equity rally, with Asian...
Natural Gas Prices Weekly Update – JKM, TTF and Henry Hub (6 April 2026)
Natural gas prices fell across Asia, Europe and the United States last week as LNG supply recovered, milder weather expectations dampened demand, and storage levels rose. The Japanese spot index (JKM) slipped to the high‑$17 per MMBtu range, down from...
From the Hype of Destruction to the Hype of Ceasefire
Oil prices plunged about 14% after President Trump posted that the United States would pause bombing Iran for two weeks, contingent on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz for safe shipping. Iran accepted the conditional ceasefire, and diplomatic talks are...
Gold Volatility Amid Geopolitical Crises: What History Tells Us>
Gold’s March price swing surprised markets, dropping 11.6% to a $4,099 low after briefly breaching $5,400 amid heightened geopolitical tension. The sell‑off was driven by rising U.S. rates, a stronger dollar and an oil‑price shock, echoing patterns seen in 2008,...
Commodity Prices Rise on Energy Disruptions>
Commodity markets posted broad gains in Q1 2026 as energy supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict and reduced transit through the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude oil and LNG prices higher. The UBS CM Commodity Index (CMCITR) delivered a 16.68%...
Commodity Strategies Diverge as Roll Yield Takes Over>
A Gulf oil production shutdown of roughly 9 million barrels per day has pushed front‑month WTI crude to about $110 a barrel, creating steep backwardation and a strong positive roll‑yield environment. VanEck’s CMCI Commodity Strategy ETF, which spreads exposure across three‑month...
Australian Petrol Prices to Fall Within the Month – if US-Iran Ceasefire Holds
A US‑Iran cease‑fire agreement sent Brent crude below $91 per barrel, sparking hopes that Australian fuel prices will soon ease. Regular unleaded, which has surged above A$2.50 (≈ $1.65 USD) a litre, could drop roughly 10 cents per litre (≈ $0.066 USD) for every $10‑a‑barrel...
Fuel Crunch: Does Australia Have Enough Cards to Keep up Supply?
Australia is confronting a fuel crunch after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, cutting global oil supply by roughly 20%. Most of the nation’s recent imports traversed the strait, meaning a six‑week lag before alternative sources can arrive. The federal...
The Commodities Feed: Oil Slumps Below $100 After US, Iran Agree to Two-Week Ceasefire
Oil prices slipped below $100 per barrel after the United States and Iran announced a two‑week ceasefire, easing fears of prolonged supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent settled around $94/bbl and WTI near $96/bbl, marking the steepest decline...
Jet Fuel Supply Could Take Months to Recover After Hormuz Reopening
IATA director general Willie Walsh warned that even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, jet‑fuel supply will take months to normalize because Middle East refining capacity remains disrupted. Crude prices fell below $100 per barrel after a U.S.–Iran cease‑fire pledge,...
Crude Oil Futures Crashes 6% to Hit Lower Circuit as US-Iran Ceasefire Cools Tensions
Crude oil futures plunged 6% on Wednesday, hitting lower‑circuit limits after the United States and Iran announced a two‑week ceasefire. On India’s MCX, April crude fell to ₹10,029 per barrel (≈$121) and May to ₹8,860 (≈$107). In the United States,...
Iran Conflict Sparks 2026 Global Food Price Surge
Iran war impacting farmers in Iowa. This is an example of how food prices will escalate globally in the rest of 2026. This plays out badly for farmers in Iowa making a loss. But it’s an even greater tragedy for...
Oil Prices Plunge Below $100/Bbl After US, Iran Agree on 2-Week Ceasefire
Oil prices plunged about 14% on Wednesday as Brent fell to $95.17 and WTI to $96.41, both slipping below the $100 per barrel threshold. The drop follows a two‑week cease‑fire agreement between the United States, Israel and Iran and a...
Recycled Steel Prices Stay Afloat Amidst Latest Storm
U.S. steel mills increased output in early April, lifting raw‑steel production by 8.2% year‑over‑year to 1.83 million tons and pushing capacity utilization to 79.1%. Despite higher domestic supply, recycled‑steel prices remained flat in March, with benchmark grades holding gains made over...
Coal Demand at Power Plants Seen Rising 11.5%
India’s coal‑based power sector expects an 11.5% jump in coal consumption to 233 million tonnes in the April‑June quarter, driven by a 13.3% rise in electricity generation to 341 billion units. Full‑year demand is projected at 906 million tonnes, up from 826 million tonnes...
Oil Prices Dip After US‑Iran Ceasefire News
Please see the CNBC chart below for the initial oil market reaction to the US-Iran ceasefire announcement. #economy #oil #energy #markets
Stoves to Cars: India Expands Ethanol Use Amid West Asia War
India faces a roughly 20 billion‑litre ethanol surplus, prompting officials to seek new demand channels beyond the E20 petrol blend. Pilot projects are testing ethanol‑powered cooking stoves, diesel blends for generators, and flex‑fuel buses in Karnataka. Automakers such as Maruti Suzuki,...
DOE Chief: Damage to Oil Sites to Keep Prices High
Philippines Energy Secretary Sharon Garin warned that damage to oil infrastructure in the Middle East will keep fuel prices elevated even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens. The country imports 98% of its crude oil from the region, and diesel...
Oil Shock Sends Philippine Inflation Surging to 4.1% in March
Philippine inflation jumped to a near‑two‑year high of 4.1% in March, driven primarily by a sharp rise in transport costs as gasoline and diesel prices surged 27.3% and 59.5% respectively. Fuel pump prices now range from roughly $2.00 to $2.87...
Indian Rupee Slides to 93.07 per Dollar as Oil Prices Top $110
The Indian rupee weakened to 93.07 per U.S. dollar, slipping 17 paise in early trade. The move was driven by Brent crude climbing to $111.11 a barrel and a $16 billion pull‑back of foreign capital, underscoring how commodity shocks are outweighing...
JPMorgan CEO Dimon Warns of Oil Shocks, Inflation and Tax‑driven Exodus in Shareholder Letter
In his annual shareholder letter, JPMorgan Chase chief Jamie Dimon warned that the Iran‑Israel conflict could trigger sustained oil and commodity price shocks, pushing inflation higher and forcing the Federal Reserve to consider rate hikes. He also warned that New...
The Roadmap For Silver
Silver has entered the early phase of a secular bull market after breaking a multi‑decade cup‑and‑handle pattern in November. The breakout pushed the metal above its historic $50 resistance, which now serves as a solid support floor. Analysts project a...
Daily Market Wire 8 April 2026
The Iran‑related cease‑fire brokered by Pakistan caused WTI crude to plunge 19% to about $91 per barrel, triggering a 400‑point rally in Dow futures. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar proved resilient, appreciating nearly 4% year‑to‑date and firming around US$0.691 per AUD...
Bank of Korea Seen Holding Rates on April 10 as Oil Shock Lifts Inflation Risks
The Bank of Korea is expected to leave its base rate at 2.50% during the April 10 meeting, as a unanimous Reuters poll of 31 economists predicts no change. A sharp oil price jump of more than 50% has heightened...
Oil Prices Plunge Following U.S.-Iran Ceasefire
Crude oil prices plunged on Tuesday after President Trump announced a two‑week U.S.-Iran ceasefire, sending Brent futures down about 13% to roughly $95 a barrel and WTI about 14% to $96. The drop marks the steepest one‑day decline since the...
2026 Illinois Farmland Price Expectations: Navigating a Stable Yet Softening Market
Illinois farmland values are entering a stabilization phase after double‑digit gains in the early 2020s. The ISPFMRA survey shows 61% of respondents expect a modest 0‑5% price decline in 2026, while 25% see no change and 14% anticipate a slight...
Spot Brent Lags Futures Yet Set to Drop Quickly
It takes an oil tanker between 2 and 4 days to go from the Persian Gulf to India, which is where the most severe shortfall exists. The spot Brent oil price (white) will be slower to fall than the futures...
China's LNG Demand Stalls, Shifts to Domestic and Pipeline Sources
Don't expect China's LNG demand to bounce back from the Middle East turmoil 🇨🇳🚢 China gets a quarter of its LNG from the world's biggest export plant in Qatar.. which remains offline. To makeup for the shortfall, China is expected to...
Oil Prices Plunge Below $100 After Iran Agrees to Safe Passage Through Strait of Hormuz During Ceasefire
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude plunged 15% to $95.63 per barrel after President Donald Trump agreed to suspend attacks on Iran for two weeks in exchange for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The cease‑fire, brokered with Pakistan’s prime...
Energy Prices Plunge Despite Uncertain Hormuz Reopening
Brent crude oil: -15% TTF nat gas: -18% German power: -5% (and below pre-war) Asian coal: -1% (And yes, the Strait of Hormuz has yet to actually reopen, and we don’t know for sure what the ceasefire means in practical terms for SoH energy...
European Gas Prices Drop 20% After US‑Iran Ceasefire
EUROPEAN GAS PRICES FALL AS MUCH AS 20% ON US-IRAN CEASEFIRE 🚨🚨 About 20% of global LNG traversed Hormuz before the war. But not a single shipment has been exported from the region in over a month https://t.co/zFjTxnnhra
Tokyo and Seoul Stocks Climb as Oil Rises Amid Middle East Conflict
Japan's Nikkei and South Korea's Kospi closed higher on Monday even as Brent crude rose to $109.77 a barrel amid the escalating Middle East war. Analysts say the rally reflects a regional appetite for risk despite soaring energy costs and...
Inflation Surge, Market Risk Unmoved Without Economic Shock
We know we face months of physical disruption to energy and food markets. Inflation will keep getting worse. The question is whether risk assets will care, if the underlying conflict has been resolved. I suspect not...unless the economy deteriorates in...
Jet Fuel Supply May Need Months to Rebound Post-Hormuz Reopening
IATA chief says jet fuel supply could take months to recover after Hormuz reopening https://t.co/9qcnn6QlNE
The US Refinery Now Processing Venezuelan Oil
Chevron’s Pascagoula refinery in Mississippi is now processing about 250,000 barrels of heavy Venezuelan crude each day, with plans to lift volumes toward 350,000‑400,000 barrels. The refinery was specifically designed for sour, high‑sulfur oil, giving Chevron a domestic pathway from...
800 Oil Tankers Await Hormuz Reopening in Gulf
POV: The 800 oil tankers stuck in the Gulf when the Strait of Hormuz opens up again. https://t.co/jmhUZYYjld
IRGC Slashes Hormuz Flow to a Quarter
15 ships per day thru Hormuz 5 mmb/d of oil (vs 20) 2.5 bcf/d LNG (vs 10) That's a starvation diet. Controlled by the IRGC #LNG #NaturalGas #EnergyMarkets #OilMarkets #Geopolitics https://t.co/ej80nFO2XR
Hormuz Rerouting Offsets Shortfall, yet 13 MMbpd Remains
Flow through the Strait of Hormuz doesn't need to re-reach pre-war levels to normalize global balances thanks to rerouting (and constant Iran flow) But we still have ~13 MMbpd of production shut-in That's how much more we'll need to push through Hormuz...
Copper Valued at 4% of Global Debt, Highly Undervalued
Very intriguing chart. The copper market sits at roughly 4% of global debt — still multiples below prior peaks. A simple way to frame just how undervalued the metal is relative to today’s macro imbalances. Now layer in the structural demand tailwinds. Game on. https://t.co/wv1i1hARmY
Iran's Oil Pressure Backfires, Trump Gains From Ceasefire
Iran’s strategy all along has been to impose an unbearable economic cost on the US if Trump continued the war via oil and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Now, oil is down ~20% well below $100 a barrel. From...
Ceasefire Triggers Oil and Bond Yield Declines
Two-week ceasefire leads to drops in oil and bond yields. #oil #bonds #economics #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
Oil's Steepest One‑day Drop Since 1991 Gulf War
Excluding Covid, we're looking at the biggest one day plunge in oil since the first Gulf War in 1991 https://t.co/gjT5CUgwkE
US Chicken Prices Outpace Canada, Now Converging Post‑pandemic
I thought (likely incorrectly) that fans of the @FoodProfessor might like some context, so I made a couple of graphs. US chicken prices have increased far faster than Canadian prices in recent years and have basically tracked Canadian prices for...
WTI Crude Plunges 15% in Two Hours, Unprecedented Move
WTI - US benchmark - crude is down around -15% after the news alone. Outside of the negative oil prices from 2020, I can't find a 2-hour bearish move of that magnitude... https://t.co/4h8brCQFAk
Gold Surges 2.5% Post‑News, Breaks 20‑Day SMA
Gold acting like a 'risk asset' after the news. XAUUSD has rallied ~2.5% after the news and cleared its 20-day SMA: https://t.co/kI2dynsCl3
Open Hormuz Strait Triggers Massive Eastward Market Rush
If the Strait of Hormuz is open, get ready to watch for a stampede to the East. https://t.co/3rohg52Jti
Oil Slumps 12% After Trump‑Iran Ceasefire Opens Hormuz
Oil prices plummet 12% (and counting) after Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran 🇺🇸 🤝 🇮🇷 The deal is subject to an immediate opening of Hormuz https://t.co/idSwDqTWxx