Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
ASEAN+3 Forecasts 4% Growth in 2026‑27 Amid Iran War and Energy Costs
The ASEAN+3 macroeconomic research office (AMRO) projects the bloc will grow 4% in both 2026 and 2027, even as the Iran war and soaring oil prices pressure the region. The outlook highlights strong inflation control, robust foreign direct investment and a shift toward a resilient production base.
UBS Sticks to Bullish Gold Forecast as Prices Slip 14% in March
UBS reiterated its bullish outlook for gold, maintaining a $5,000 per ounce average price target for 2026 even after the metal fell about 14% in March. The bank argues the recent weakness is a buying opportunity and expects the long‑term...
Are Gold & Silver Now "On Sale"? | Andy Schectman
Precious‑metals analyst Andy Schectman says gold and silver are effectively on sale after steep price corrections, even amid the ongoing Middle‑East conflict. COMEX data show record physical deliveries in March—over 1.45 million ounces of gold and 4.66 million ounces of silver—indicating robust...
Oil Shock Sorts Cruise Lines Into the Hedged and Hedged Nots
A sudden spike in global oil prices has added roughly $1.2 billion in fuel costs to the cruise industry. Companies that locked in fuel prices through hedging contracts are largely insulated, preserving operating margins, while those without hedges face earnings pressure...
Brent Futures Hit Record Backwardation Amid US‑Iran Tensions
Brent (physical and futures) still pricing for a short war Brent prices have surged into a record backwardation as the United States and Iran threaten to escalate their conflict by attacking energy infrastructure on both sides of the Persian Gulf. In the...
Crude Prices Soar as Iran War Looks to Escalate
Crude prices jumped 3.7% on April 7, with WTI May futures hitting a four‑week high as the Iran‑Israel‑U.S. conflict threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz. The New York Times reported Iran ended talks with Washington, while U.S. strikes on Kharg Island and...
Why Oil Markets Could Be Wildly Wrong on Strait of Hormuz
The article argues that oil markets may be overstating the impact of the Strait of Hormuz disruption, suggesting that while flows have been curtailed, they are not entirely halted. Analysts note that Iran is likely regulating traffic rather than enforcing...
Silver Daily Call for April 7th, 2026
Silver prices are testing the $69.50 support level for the third time on April 7, 2026. If the hourly bias holds, traders may aim for a breakout above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $74.50. However, repeated failures at that level...
How the Iran War Has Sowed Panic Among Farmers
The ongoing Iran‑Israel conflict has driven up global fertilizer and fuel costs, sparking panic among farmers worldwide. Prices for nitrogen‑based fertilizers have surged by more than 60%, while diesel rates have risen sharply due to disrupted shipping lanes in the...
The Biofuels Report: RFS Reset - US Biofuel Mandates Evolve
The episode breaks down the EPA’s final rule on the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) for 2026‑27, highlighting higher biofuel mandates, reduced RIN credits for renewable diesel and SAF, and a new import‑feedstock rent scheme slated for 2028. Cole Martin explains...
Houthis Threaten Bab El‑Mandeb Closure, Risk Oil Price Surge
The Houthis attempting to close the Bab el-Mandeb strait by again turning it into a shooting gallery would be a massive problem and would send oil prices into orbit. Saudis are moving their oil to Asia via the Red Sea...
Oil Price Hikes Supercharge Devon Energy’s Cash Flow
When oil rises, shale cash flow doesn’t just grow — it accelerates. 👇 $DVN Devon Energy 851k boe/d with $1.5B quarterly operating cash flow. Capex already normalized for flat growth, so upside flows directly to FCF. Variable dividend model amplifies returns. Trades...
Oil Prices Reach Low Boil Ahead Of Strait Of Hormuz End Game
Crude oil prices climbed to $115.79 a barrel, the highest level since the Iran‑Israel conflict began, as the U.S. deadline for Tehran to relinquish control of the Strait of Hormuz approaches. The S&P 500 slipped 0.9% amid fears that a further...
Softs Report 04/07/2026
Soft commodity markets showed mixed but generally upward pressure on April 7, 2026, as higher petroleum futures lifted input and shipping costs for cotton and coffee. Geopolitical tension from the U.S.‑Iran standoff added logistical risk, especially for coffee beans, while...
Fuel Crisis Forces Airlines to Cancel Flights Globally
A sharp surge in jet‑fuel prices, driven by geopolitical tensions and refinery outages, has forced airlines worldwide to slash schedules and cancel thousands of flights. Carriers are trimming up to 10% of their weekly departures, with European and Asian markets...
US Shale Drillers Expected to Lift Crude Output
U.S. shale drillers are gearing up to increase crude output after a 68% price surge triggered by the Iran‑Israel conflict and Hormuz closure. With West Texas Intermediate trading around $115 per barrel—well above the $62‑$70 profit threshold—companies like Continental Resources...
Iran War: FAO Food Commodity Price Index Rises in March
The UN’s FAO Food Price Index climbed to 128.5 points in March, a 2.4% month‑on‑month rise marking a second consecutive increase. All five commodity groups – cereals, vegetable oils, meat, dairy and sugar – posted higher prices, led by a...
Latest DOE/EIA Diesel Benchmark Price Increase Adds Almost 25 Cts
The U.S. DOE/EIA diesel benchmark rose 24.2 cents to $5.643 per gallon, marking the 12th consecutive weekly increase and the highest level since July 2022. Over the 12‑week run the price has added $2.184 per gallon, driven by geopolitical tension...
National Diesel Average Rises for the 14th Consecutive Week, Reports Energy Information Administration
The Energy Information Administration reported diesel prices rose to $5.643 per gallon for the week of April 6, marking the 14th consecutive weekly increase and a $2.00 jump from a year ago. The price is up 24.2 cents from the previous...
Singapore: Growers Face Pressure From Rising Energy, Fuel Costs
The war in the Middle East has pushed fertilizer, fuel and transport costs sharply higher for Singapore farms. Vegeponics Farm warns its fertilizer stock will last only six months, with prices set to rise further if the conflict continues. Delivery...
"Polyhouse Growers and First-Time Hydroponic Entrepreneurs Make up the Bulk of Our Customer Base"
India’s protected‑cultivation sector is fueling a 15‑20% annual rise in coir substrate demand, with polyhouse growers and first‑time hydroponic entrepreneurs forming the core of Biogrow Substrates’ client base. The company reports stable raw‑material costs but notes freight volatility, driven by...
Soybean Speculators’ Long Stance Fueled by Rising Crude
Bullish Soybean Specs May Depend on Higher Crude At about 19% of open interest, soybean complex managed money (hedge fund) positions are the most net long in roughly three years. Are speculators too optimistic despite a supply glut from Brazil? My...
Corn Speculators Near Peak Longs as Prices Hover $5
Corn Revisits $5 With Specs Long, Gas Falling At about 15% of futures open interest, net-long corn speculators may be overly optimistic for higher prices. My graphic shows spec longs approaching last year's 1Q peak near 18% -- about when the...
Shipping Constraints Mount as US Crude Exports Test Limits
Overseas demand for U.S. crude has surged amid the Iran conflict, pushing export volumes toward record levels. Analysts now argue that practical constraints limit Gulf Coast shipments to under 6 million barrels per day, far below the often‑cited 10 million‑bpd capacity. The...
Fitch Raises Nigeria Inflation to 15.5% as Sub‑Saharan Growth Trimmed to 4.2%
Fitch Solutions upgraded Nigeria's 2026 inflation forecast to 15.5% and nudged its GDP growth to 4.4%, while lowering the aggregate Sub‑Saharan Africa growth projection to 4.2%. The revisions reflect higher global oil prices and the fallout from an extended US‑Iran...
Fastmarkets to Launch Cold-Rolled Grain Oriented Electrical Steel, Ex-Whs Eastern China Price Assessment: Pricing Notice
Fastmarkets will begin publishing a bi‑weekly price assessment for cold‑rolled grain‑oriented electrical steel (GOES) in Eastern China starting April 17. The new assessment follows a month‑long consultation and adds to Fastmarkets’ existing coverage of non‑grain oriented steel in China and...
Strait of Hormuz Closure Sends Oil to $110 a Barrel, Reshapes Energy Markets
The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz after Iran’s war escalated has lifted Brent crude to about $110 per barrel, delivering windfalls to oil‑rich nations while straining global supply chains. President Donald Trump’s ultimatum and fresh U.S. strikes on Iran’s...
Oil Jumps to Near‑Four‑Year Highs as U.S. Deadline Threatens Strait of Hormuz
Brent and WTI crude surged to their highest levels in nearly four years after President Donald Trump set an 8 p.m. Washington deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Traders priced in a sharp geopolitical risk premium, while Tehran...
UBS Has Alarming News About Oil if the Strait of Hormuz Closes
UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo warned that a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz could remove roughly 10 million barrels of crude per day from global markets, adding to an already 90% reduction in flow. The chokepoint normally carries about 20 million...
Current Price of Oil as of April 7, 2026
Oil’s benchmark Brent crude rose to $113.40 a barrel on April 7, 2026, up $2.15 from the previous day and roughly 75% higher than a year ago. The price jumped 33.85% over the past month, reflecting tighter supply and renewed geopolitical...
Oil Prices Rise as Hormuz Stays Shut Ahead of Trump Deadline, Strikes on Iran Intensify
Oil prices jumped as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, with Brent at $111.16 a barrel and U.S. WTI nearing $116, creating a rare WTI premium over Brent. President Trump gave Iran until midnight GMT to reopen the strait, threatening...
War in Iran Drives Russian Oil Prices to a 13-Year High
Russian Urals crude surged to $116.05 a barrel on April 2, the highest level in over 13 years, as the Iran‑linked oil rally lifts global prices. The price far exceeds the $59 per barrel budget assumption, delivering a windfall that eases Kremlin...
Oil Outage Labelled ‘Biggest in History’ Sends Prices and Nerves Higher
Six million barrels per day have gone offline as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, creating the biggest oil outage in modern history. The shutdown has cut roughly 20% of global supply, pushing Brent to about $109 and WTI to...
How February Broke One Grain Marketing Guru’s Heart
February saw an unusual break in grain market patterns, with corn futures falling below $4.60 per bushel and technicals pointing to a potential downside breakout. USDA’s first crop‑progress report showed planting ahead of schedule, reaching 3% of the U.S. corn...
"Limited Volumes Available, but €80 per Kilo Still Hard to Sell"
Van Ooijen Citrus received its first Spanish greenhouse cherries, delivering 60 kg today with an additional 100 kg expected next week. The fruit is priced at €80 per kilo, a level the company admits is hard to move. Buyers view these early‑season cherries as...
Strawberry Market Sees Higher California Supply and EU Price Pressure
The global strawberry market is diverging regionally as spring unfolds. California is set for a high‑volume season, with the Santa Maria area leading peak conventional output in April and organic supplies arriving later. Florida’s winter‑freeze damage has trimmed yields, while Mexican...
Middle East Crisis Is Repricing Uranium From Canada’s Athabasca
Rising oil prices above $100 per barrel have widened the cost gap between fossil‑fuel generation and nuclear power, with oil‑fired electricity costing roughly $185/MWh versus $4.6/MWh for uranium‑based fuel. Even cheap North American natural gas at $3.80/MMBtu translates to about...
Agronometrics in Charts: Strait of Hormuz Disruption Sends Fertilizer Prices Skyrocketing 30 Percent
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has halted roughly half of global urea exports, driving fertilizer prices up about 30 percent in just weeks. The disruption also curtails sulfur shipments, tightening supplies for phosphate fertilizers and compounding the shortage....
Will the Iran Crisis Lead to Another Round of Food Price Spikes?
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven a sharp rise in fertilizer and energy costs, with urea prices up about 40 percent, while grain markets remain largely stable, showing only modest increases in wheat, maize and soybeans. Unlike...
Continuing Consequences From the US-Iran Conflict
The US‑Iran conflict has forced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, driving crude oil prices up 83% to over $110 a barrel and pushing U.S. gasoline to $4.79 per gallon. Higher energy costs are feeding persistent inflation, complicating the...
Why Gold’s Liquidity Crunch Could Be a Buying Opportunity
Gold’s price plunged from a January high of just under $5,600 to around $4,400 by late March, driven primarily by a liquidity squeeze rather than a shift in fundamentals. Investors and central banks sold gold to raise cash, while Iran‑Hormuz...
Brent Bulls Bet on Escalation, Buying 22M Barrels
Brent bulls focus on escalation not mediation Investors remain exceptionally bullish about the outlook for Brent as prices grind higher and the United States and Iran show no indication of ending the conflict that has slowed exports from the Persian Gulf...
Prediction Markets See 75% Chance Oil >$130, Equities Possibly Mispriced
Wait - Prediction markets are pricing a 75% chance of oil $130+ by the end of the year, and a coin flip it's $150+? I feel like if that's true, equities are not correctly priced... https://t.co/GkFbvHEOZp
Ontario Fertilizer Supply Looks Stable but Logistics and Timing Could Be Challenging, Say Retailers
Ontario’s fertilizer market entered the 2026 planting season with a relatively comfortable supply outlook, though global nitrogen prices stay high. The province can only store a fraction of its annual need, so most product arrives just before peak demand, creating...
Unexpected Twist Challenges Narratives on China's Gold Sales
Big non-sequitur to multiple narratives in March about official gold selling & China's level of desperation. 👇
US-to-Asia Oil Shipping Costs Hit Record Highs
The cost of shipping oil from the United States to Asia by sea is hitting record highs. https://t.co/c8BCdLPsi8
U.S. Industry’s Shift to Natural Gas Cuts Global Price Exposure
The US was far more reliant upon petroleum in the 1970's for industrial fuel and products than we are today, compounding the price shocks of the embargo. Natural gas is more prevalent for industry today and US natgas prices are...
Dark Shipping Boosts Hormuz Oil Flow to 12 Mb/D
Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is up. You don't see that in publicly available data like these from Bloomberg, because ships now transiting are travelling "dark." I'd say we're now at 12 mb/d out of the Persian...
China's Fuel Export Ban Threatens Australia's Jet Fuel Supply
Note that the Chinese readout doesn't mention energy security at all. Elephant in the room is China's fuel export ban. Australia imported a third of its jet fuel from China last year.
Food Prices Stable Now, Risk Rising Post‑2026 Conflict
Food prices are stable for now, supported by sufficient availability & high stocks, with only marginal inflation across major economies. But if the conflict persists, risks shift forward: higher input costs or shift to other crops will push prices up...