Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Video: Shortage Is Driving Impending Price Surge Of Oil, LNG, Fertilizer, Food, & Interest Rates
A recent video discussion with Kasper of USELINK Technical Analysis warns that tightening supplies of oil and liquefied natural gas are set to trigger a cascade of price increases across fertilizers, food commodities, and even interest rates. The analysis links constrained energy markets to higher production costs for nitrogen‑based fertilizers, which in turn lift agricultural prices. Rising commodity inflation is expected to pressure central banks toward tighter monetary policy. The conversation underscores that these inter‑linked shortages could accelerate a broader cost‑of‑living surge.
The Closer – Cyclicals Technically Better, Backwardation – 4/6/26
Cyclical segments of the equity market have posted stronger technical patterns after a brief rally, suggesting renewed momentum. Meanwhile, front‑month West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil reached a new cycle high, creating a record spread versus the second‑month contract and...
Southeast Asia Oil Crisis Puts Sovereign Ratings at Risk
Southeast Asian governments are scrambling to subsidize soaring fuel prices after Brent crude topped $90 a barrel, adding a heavy fiscal burden to Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia. The subsidies, intended to quell public unrest, are swelling budget deficits...
Natural Gas Spot Prices, Apr. 6, 2026
On April 6, 2026 the industry released volume‑weighted average natural‑gas spot prices for next‑day flow and weekend delivery. The data set includes both wellhead and delivered price composites, offering a comprehensive view of market pricing. Accompanying the price figures are the daily...
Critical Notices, Apr. 6, 2026
The latest Critical Notices highlight three key energy developments. Polar LNG asserts that Alaska can support two new LNG export projects, underscoring the state’s growing strategic importance. Chevron has resumed production at Israel’s Leviathan gas field, a vital supply source...
VanEck's Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF Gains Over 125% as Investor Appetite Swells
VanEck's Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) has climbed more than 125% over the past year, driven by heightened demand for rare‑earth commodities. The fund holds 34 positions, with an expense ratio of 0.58%, but its narrow focus brings...
Tuesday: Oil Price Rises After New Trump Threats
The episode covers how Donald Trump's threat to strike Iran's energy and water infrastructure spiked oil prices by about 2%, while U.S. jobs data showed strong payroll growth but weakening wage gains, easing pressure on the Fed. ANZ economists discuss...
The Iran War Is Driving up Produce Prices
The ongoing Iran war has triggered a sharp rise in global fuel prices, directly inflating transportation costs for fresh produce. As shipping expenses climb, retailers are passing the added burden onto consumers, resulting in higher grocery bills for fruits and...
Unseasonal Rain May Dent Wheat Output, Quality
Unseasonal rain and hailstorms across northern India have cut the 2025‑26 wheat harvest by an estimated 3‑4%, lowering total output from the projected 115 million tonnes. The excess moisture has also damaged grain quality, especially in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Punjab and...
Price Opportunities Shift From War to Weather
U.S. grain markets are moving from a war‑driven price premium to weather‑focused risk as USDA’s March 31 report projects near‑record corn yields of 185.3 bushels per acre and sizable soybean plantings. The agency’s outlook points to a top‑third corn price...
Worley Consulting-Pace Refining Margins
Worley Consulting has entered a strategic partnership with Pace Refining to enhance the latter's refining margins. The collaboration will deploy Worley’s process‑optimization and digital‑transformation expertise across Pace’s downstream assets. Early projections suggest margin improvements of up to 15 percent through...
U.S. Petroleum Exports Hit Record, Reaching New Markets
U.S. weekly petroleum product exports surged to a record 7.9 mb/d for the week ending March 27, according to EIA. While weekly figures are volatile, multiple sources have reported U.S. product exports increasing to Asia, Africa and other areas. Trade...
Crude Oil Soars As U.S. Deadline To Iran To Open Strait Of Hormuz Closes In
Crude oil prices jumped on Monday as the United States extended its deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint that carries roughly 20% of global oil. WTI May futures rose $1.39 to $112.93 a barrel,...
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
Futures were mixed on Monday, with corn and soybeans gaining while wheat slipped. Strong weekly export figures and a rally in the energy complex lifted grain prices, and interior processing margins continued to improve. Ethanol margins averaged about $0.40 per...
When Will Grain Markets Lose the Geopolitical Premium?
The USDA Prospective Plantings report showed corn, soybean and wheat numbers essentially in line with expectations, leaving little room for surprise. Prices held firm, with December corn hovering near $4.85 and November soybeans around $11.57, reflecting continued market resilience. Fund...
India’s Coffee Exports Hit a Record High of $2.13 Billion in 2025-26 Fiscal
India’s coffee exports surged to a record $2.13 billion in FY 2025‑26, a 17% increase over the prior year. Export volumes rose 4.65% to 4.07 lakh tonnes, while the average price per tonne jumped 17% to roughly $5,600. The growth was driven by...
FROM OIL SHOCKS TO SOLAR BOOMS: The Push for Energy Security Drives Greater Solar Adoption, Strait of Hormuz Chaos Accelerates...
The latest Middle East flare‑up, especially threats to the Strait of Hormuz, is reigniting concerns over oil supply reliability. Governments and investors are accelerating domestic solar projects as a hedge against future fossil‑fuel disruptions. Because photovoltaic panels are the single...
Oil Palm Price Breaches ₹23,000-Mark in Telangana
Telangana’s fresh fruit bunch (FFB) price rose to ₹23,005 per tonne, surpassing the ₹23,000 mark after the state government added ₹1,459 per tonne (about $18). The increase is intended to encourage farmers to expand oil‑palm cultivation. Simultaneously, Chief Minister A Revanth Reddy...
Hormuz Oil Flows Remain Severely Reduced, Markets Underestimate Recovery
Hormuz flows aren't coming back to normal despite what you hear, says @CroftHelima Transit will be a fraction of pre-war levels because Iran’s leverage depends on keeping energy markets tight. And even after a deal, the road back is long. Markets are...
Turkmengaz Signs $‑$ Contract with Chinese Firm to Build New Galkynysh Gas Facility
Turkmengaz State Concern announced a contract with a Chinese partner to design, construct and equip a new gas production facility at the Galkynysh field. The deal marks a major push to expand Turkmenistan’s gas output amid regional energy tensions, including...
Middle‑East Conflict Boosts Oil, Lifts Tokyo and Seoul Stocks as Asian Markets Split
Rising geopolitical risk from the Middle East war lifted crude to a flat $111.61 per barrel and spurred a 1.6% rise in Japan's Nikkei and a 2.2% jump in South Korea's KOSPI. Tokyo and Seoul were the only Asian markets...
Gold Price Swings Spur Advance Buying; Tanishq Enters Gemstones to Boost Demand
Tanishq is accelerating advance jewellery purchases as volatile gold prices push consumers to buy early, especially ahead of Akshaya Tritiya and the upcoming festive season. The retailer unveiled the ‘Hues’ collection, adding over 200 natural‑gemstone designs, with 70% of items...
Opinion: End Fertilizer Import Tariffs to Bring Relief to Farmers
U.S. fertilizer giants Mosaic and J.R. Simplot secured import tariffs on Moroccan phosphate fertilizers after a 2020 petition to the International Trade Commission. The duties halted shipments, driving domestic fertilizer prices to historic highs and adding $6.9 billion in costs for...
Gold Rises over 1% to ₹1.51 Lakh/10g in Futures Trade
Gold futures on India’s Multi‑Commodity Exchange jumped more than 1% on Monday, reaching ₹1.51 lakh per 10 grams (about $1,820). The rise follows a recent decline, with prices now down roughly 12% from the February peak of ₹1.65 lakh ($2,000) amid escalating West...
Saudi Oil Price Surge Signals Phase Three Economic Fallout
From the Bloomberg article on “Saudi Arabia rais[ing] the price of its main oil grade to Asia to a record high premium.” This price development coincides with more Asian governments worrying about physical energy supplies—marking part of what I’ve termed "Phase...
BMI Ups Global Diesel Price Forecast
BMI analysts at Fitch raised the 2026 global diesel price forecast to $111 per barrel, a 25 percent increase from the prior $89 estimate, citing an extended U.S.–Iran conflict that tightens Strait of Hormuz flows. The conflict, now projected to last...
Oil Smugglers, Hoarders in Thailand Worsen Supply Crisis as Anutin Warns of Tough Times
Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul warned that the nation’s fuel crisis will deepen as diesel prices surged to a record 50 baht per litre (about $1.54). Justice Minister Rutthaphon Naowarat said roughly 57‑58 million litres of oil appear to have...
Singapore Fuel Prices Surge, Threatening Shipping Operations
singapore shipping fuel market going off the chart—this is shipping fuel shortage live. at that price, shippers will defer orders, park their ships and either wait till the war is over or go out of business.
OIL PRICE WATCH: Diesel Hikes on April 7 Near P20/Liter
Philippine oil majors announced diesel price hikes of roughly P20 per liter (≈ $0.36) effective April 7, with Shell Pilipinas leading at P19.80, followed by Petron, Seaoil and Jetti. Gasoline and kerosene prices also rose double‑digit, ranging from P4.90 to P5.90 and P8.10 to...
Crude‑Gold Ratio Hits Historic Peak, Signals 2026 Reversal
Worthy Reversion Spark? Stocks vs. Gold, GDP, Crude Mean reversion can be profound when it's from historical extremes, and the relationship between crude oil and gold may suggest a reverse wealth effect that defines 2026. The roughly 86x January high in...
Trump Sets Tuesday Deadline to Reopen Strait of Hormuz as Jet Fuel Prices Double
President Donald Trump gave Iran a Tuesday 8 p.m. ET deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a move that comes as jet fuel prices have more than doubled to $4.57 per gallon. The deadline has already triggered a wave of...
India's Metal & Mining Sector Set for Earnings Recovery Despite Geopolitical Headwinds: Report
India’s metal and mining sector is poised for a near‑term earnings rebound, driven by stronger domestic steel demand and rising commodity prices. A sharp recovery in steel prices since December 2025 is expected to lift ferrous margins in Q4 FY26, while...
Iran War Triggers European Energy Crunch, Diesel Rationing and Jet‑Fuel Limits
The escalation of hostilities in Iran has pushed European governments to contemplate diesel rationing and limits on jet fuel, sparking a sharp rise in oil and gas prices. With storage at just 28% of capacity and gas costing $633 per...
Moody's Cuts India's FY27 Growth Forecast to 6% Amid West Asia Conflict
Moody's Ratings lowered its projection for India's fiscal 2026‑27 real GDP growth to 6% from 6.8%, warning that the Israel‑Iran war is disrupting oil, LPG and fertilizer supplies. The downgrade raises inflation expectations to 4.8% and tightens the fiscal outlook...
Trump Threatens Strikes on Iran’s Power Plants and Bridges if Hormuz Stays Shut
President Donald Trump warned that the United States will target Iran’s power plants and bridges if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The threat sent oil futures above $100 a barrel, lifted U.S. gasoline to over $4 per...
Brent Crude Hits $141.36, Highest Since 2008, Sparking Global Market Shock
Spot Brent crude surged to $141.36 a barrel on Thursday, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. The spike reflects a tight physical market after Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz and governments released a record 400 million barrels from...
Commodity Exchanges Distort Prices, Not Discover Them
Is the commodity exchange model broken? When physical markets and paper prices tell completely different stories – in oil, metals and beyond – it raises a fundamental question: are exchanges still discovering prices, or distorting them? In this article I...
Gas Prices Hit Record High Since 2004, AAA Says
BERNSTEIN: Gas prices yesterday “surpassed 2004’s peak to become the highest non-pandemic related gas price in AAA’s history.” ⛽️ https://t.co/lHbZWM1faL
Winter Wheat Condition Hits Decade Low at 35%
🇺🇸Only 35% of U.S. winter wheat is in good or excellent condition, below all trade estimates and down notably from late Nov. This is the week's fourth lowest rating of the last decade. Corn, cotton and spring wheat planting have just...
Middle East Oil Loss Spikes Global Oil Prices
Yes...we do get something from the Persian Gulf. 8% of US imports come from the Middle East. More importantly, when you lose Middle East oil, all other oil goes up in price and demand.
US Energy Independence Is a Myth Amid Global Shocks
Just read a wild JPMorgan note on the current energy + war situation. Here are the spiciest takes 🧵 “US energy independence” is basically a myth. Even as a net exporter, the US is still getting hit by global price shocks—sometimes worse...
Currie Calls Iran War Oil Shock Unprecedented, Like 1973+1979
Distinguished economist & commodity market guru Jeff Currie on the OIL SHOCK caused by Trump & Netanyahu's war in Iran: "It is the largest shock the oil markets have ever seen in their history... [It is] the culmination of ‘73 and...
Soybean Inspections to China Surge, Other Grains Flat
Export inspections destined for China in the week ending April 2 (mln bu): #corn 0.0, grain sorghum 2.3, #soybeans 18.3, #wheat 0.0 #oatt
Exports Lag Production; Inventory Loads Faster than Restart
Keep in mind that exports ≠ production. Production was shut in because after they stopped loading new tankers inventory capacity was rapidly exhausted—they'll be able to load tankers from that same inventory much sooner than they'll be ablet to get field...
China Logs Massive 2025 Crude Stockpile Surge
JUST IN: China recorded one of the largest ever increases in crude oil stockpiles in 2025
Demand Will Collapse Once Inventories Exhausted, Prices Surge
Distinguished economist & commodity market guru Jeff Currie on oil supply and demand: "Once we exhaust our ability to draw down inventories [in] mid to late April... demand has to come crashing down in line with supply. The key question is...
US Gas Hits $4.12, 38% 5‑Week Surge
Gas prices in the US have moved up to $4.12 per gallon, their highest level since August 2022. The 38% spike over the last 5 weeks ($2.98/gallon to $4.12/gallon) is the biggest we've seen in the past 30 years. Video: https://t.co/e3t0Md56BN
Ceasefire Triggers Oil Drop, Dollar Decline, EM Rally
A ceasefire is coming. Two things will get repriced quickly when that happens. Oil futures will tumble and the Dollar will fall sharply. The latter is up on safe haven inflows to the US. All those inflows will unwind very...
Higher Oil Prices Mask Saudi’s Net Loss
Do NOT be fooled by those calculations. They are statistically biased and ignore many factors. The net is a loss. Will cover the details in today's Daily Energy Report. https://t.co/pVftS4kIhA
Saudi Raises Oil Price to $19.5, Asia Inflation Spikes
🚨 JUST IN Saudi Arabia has just increased its official oil selling price to a record high of $19.5/barrel. Inflation in Asia is about to skyrocket. https://t.co/dtEBhiWdgT