Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Oil Prices Give Up Early Gains On Iran War Ceasefire Hopes
Oil prices slipped on Monday after reports that the United States and Iran were engaging in indirect negotiations for a potential 45‑day cease‑fire. Brent crude for June delivery fell 0.4% to $108.56 a barrel, down from an intraday high of $111.88, while WTI dropped 1.6% to $109.81. The diplomatic push, led by Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan, follows President Donald Trump's recent threats to strike Iranian infrastructure and a rescue operation that heightened tensions. Meanwhile OPEC+ announced a modest output increase of 206,000 barrels per day in May to offset supply concerns.
Crude Oil Unlikely to Fall to $70 in 2026, May Remain at $80-85; Risks to Growth, Inflation: UBI Report
Union Bank of India’s latest outlook predicts crude oil will stay in an $80‑85 per barrel band through 2026, dismissing expectations of a drop to $70. The report warns that prices breaching $100‑120 could trigger a sharper monetary response from...
What Factors Could Challenge This Profitable Beef Market?
U.S. beef prices stay well above year‑ago levels as tight supply and strong demand push boxed‑beef, feeder and fed‑cattle values higher into 2026. Producers enjoy a profitable market but face heightened volatility from short‑term shocks. Six headwinds – drought, geopolitical...
Oil Scenarios Changing Behavior and Market Update
The blog examines how the escalating Iran‑Israel conflict is reshaping oil market dynamics and influencing equity and macroeconomic outlooks. It updates previous scenario models to reflect heightened geopolitical risk, frequent threats to critical infrastructure, and the potential for supply disruptions....
Diesel to Breach ₱170 per Liter on Tuesday
Diesel in the Philippines is set to breach ₱170 per liter (about $3.10), underscoring rising fuel costs amid global supply shocks. Meanwhile, the Recto Bank offshore block, estimated to hold 16‑20 TCF of gas and up to 5.4 billion barrels of oil,...
Expensive Gold Is Changing How People Buy Engagement Rings
Rising gold prices are inflating engagement and wedding ring costs, pushing average prices up 47% year‑over‑year to $2,408 by 2025. While lab‑grown diamond prices have fallen 40%, the gold premium dominates price hikes, prompting 25‑30% of shoppers to delay proposals...
Feedgrain Focus: Volatility Kills Volume, Short Trips Appeal
Australian grain markets are being reshaped by soaring diesel costs and a tight urea supply linked to the Persian Gulf conflict, prompting growers to hold grain on‑farm and favour local sales. This cost pressure has eroded new‑crop market liquidity, with...
Qatar Aims to Resume LNG Shipments via Hormuz
Qatar is attempting to send LNG shipments through Hormuz for first time since the Iran war started 🚨🚨 If successful, this would be the first time a loaded LNG tanker has gone through Hormuz in over a month. ~20% of global...
Auto Dealers Say Iran War to Hit Supplies
India’s auto dealers warn that the West Asia conflict is disrupting supplies and inflating costs across the automotive supply chain. Rising oil, gas and metal prices have lifted logistics expenses and prompted manufacturers like Maruti Suzuki to consider price hikes....
China Restarts US Oil Imports Amid Middle East Disruption
China imports US oil for Asian fuel markets amid Hormuz crisis @asiatimesonline https://t.co/Iy0aRy8vam China is moving to resume large-scale purchases of United States liquefied natural gas (LNG) and crude oil, as supply disruptions in the Middle East and tightening fuel markets...
Iran Tensions, Crude Oil Surge Keep Dalal Street on Edge
Rising crude‑oil prices and heightened Iran‑U.S. tensions pushed Indian equities lower on Monday. The BSE Sensex fell about 120 points (‑0.16%) to 73,199 and the NSE Nifty slipped 13 points (‑0.06%) to 22,700. Brent crude rose to $109.78 per barrel...
With the Strait of Hormuz Mostly Shut-Down, the Last Oil Shipments of Oil Going to Europe and Asia Will Land...
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has halted oil and LNG shipments, with the last tankers for Europe and Asia expected to dock by mid‑April. Once those supplies run out, regional fuel reserves will shrink sharply, prompting analysts to...
The Iran Shock
Within weeks of the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, Tehran’s near‑shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz halted roughly 20% of global oil and LNG transit, sending crude prices up 55% and gasoline up about $1 per gallon. The disruption exposed the...
Qatar
Dozens of empty Qatari LNG tankers sit idle across Asia 🇶🇦🚢 The world's top LNG export plant in Qatar has been shut for over a month, upending the gas market and leaving the nation's fleet of ships without orders Hormuz has also...
Oil Slides 2% After 58% Rally, Seen as Stock Boost
OIL: down -2% after inflating +58% in the last month, but Tourists will trade it as "bullish for stocks" (for now) https://t.co/uZ7JAkPj9u
Oil Crisis Hitting Asia Foreshadows Tough Times for Europe
The war in Iran has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, cutting global oil supplies by about 10 % and pushing Brent crude above $100 per barrel. The disruption also curtails LNG flows, tightening energy inputs for power and fertilizer production....
Saudi Raises Arab Light Price to Record Premium
Saudi Arabia has increased its official selling price (OSP) to a record high. The state-owned Saudi oil giant told refineries in Asian it would charge a premium of $19.5 a barrel over the regional benchmark for sales of its flagship...
India's Russian Crude Imports Surge 94% in March
🇮🇳India’s Russian crude imports rebound sharply — up nearly 94% in March MoM and 10% YoY. https://t.co/O0zIu8LcIi
Philippines Inflation Seen Quickening as Oil and Food Costs Rise
Philippine headline inflation is projected to rise sharply in March, with estimates ranging from 3.5% to 4.3% after February’s 2.4% rate. The surge is driven by higher oil, electricity and food prices, especially rice. Analysts warn the reading could push...
Oil Inventories Falling, Price Spike Imminent, Catastrophe Ahead
According to Jeff Currie, distinguished economist and commodity market guru, we’re only seeing the start of what will become a major oil catastrophe. At present, we’re burning through oil inventories. Once inventories dwindle, oil prices will SPIKE. THE WORST IS YET TO COME....
Mines Threat Alone Can Paralyze Hormuz Shipping
A few mines—or just the threat—is enough to close Hormuz Ships stop. Insurers pull back. Flows collapse. Clearing takes weeks to months. That’s the strategy: disruption without closure. #IranWar #OilMarkets #EnergyCrisis #Hormuz #Geopolitics #SupplyChains https://t.co/DlAEMOcmJF
The Looming Diesel Disaster
Australian policymakers have slashed diesel excise and GST in an effort to blunt rising fuel costs for households. The authors argue that the tax cuts provide only temporary relief while ignoring the deeper problem of dwindling diesel supplies and rising...
Trump’s Iran Ultimatum Spikes Oil, Fuels Market Volatility
Trump's 48-hour Iran ultimatum just sent oil futures through the roof. This geopolitical tension could spell trouble for broader markets. Going live in 2 hours to trade this volatility with our DOTS indicator signals. https://t.co/66dSROeuCi https://t.co/E2Zf77HxKR
US‑Iran Conflict Drives Dollar Surge, Sparks Debate Over Gold’s Safe‑Haven Role
The US‑Iran war has propelled the U.S. dollar to the forefront of safe‑haven assets, with the dollar index climbing more than 2% in March 2026 after a 10% drop in 2025. Gold, by contrast, has slumped over 14% from its...
Is the World Running Out of Oil? Goldman Sachs Weighs In
Goldman Sachs analysis says the world is not running out of oil despite the Middle East conflict disrupting the Strait of Hormuz. Asian economies that source roughly half of their fuel from the Gulf are feeling strain as shipments fall,...
Asia Faces Fuel Squeeze as Reserves Dip to 30 Days
Asian countries (excluding China) only hold 30 days of fuel in reserve. If that isn't bad enough, they rely heavily on oil shipments from the Persian Gulf. IN THE COMING DAYS, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A SQUEEZE AND HIGHER PRICES...
US Inaction Will Trigger Oil Shock in Two Weeks
Listen to the question carefully then listen to the answer. Those waiting for US Leadership in solving the Strait of Hormuz issue, you are gonna be disappointed. They have ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA how to solve the issue. In less than 2 weeks, global...
RI Turns to Africa, India for Naphtha as Middle East Supply Tightens
Indonesia relies on Middle East naphtha for 70% of its petrochemical feedstock, but the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, halting shipments. The supply crunch has pushed pack prices up by Rp5,000‑6,000 (≈$0.30) and driven packaging...
War May End, but Oil Supply Disruptions Linger
According to Jeff Currie, distinguished economist and commodity market guru, even if the US-ISRAELI war on Iran ends soon, the damage to supply chains has been done. Oil flows will be disrupted for months or years. https://t.co/SxmxwhkvAY
Double‑digit Prompt Spreads Demand Explicit Delivery Month Quotes
When you need to explicitly include delivery months in all crude futures price quotes because we have double digit prompt timespreads https://t.co/cvrXe7FuP3
OPEC+ Debates Theoretical Oil Output Hike Amid Iran War Paralysis
OPEC+ is expected to approve a modest output increase for May, but the rise will be largely academic because key producers cannot lift production amid the US‑Israeli war with Iran that has shut the Strait of Hormuz. The closure and...
Crude Oil Gaps Higher, Outpaces Falling Futures
/CLK6 gaps open to 112.96, trades up to 114.83 (Friday close of 111.89)...now +1.7%ish /ESM6 -0.6% /NQM6 -0.7% /ZNM6 -0.03% DXY +0.02%
U.S. Drivers Spent $8.4 B Extra on Gas
American drivers have paid an additional $8.4 BILLION in fuel costs since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran. The cost of regular gas has JUMPED from $2.80 to $4.11 per gallon since January 11. AMERICANS DRIVERS SHOULD SEND A BILL...
How Trump’s Iran War Could Make the World More Reliant on Coal
The U.S. and its allies’ war with Iran is spurring a global shift back toward coal as nations scramble for reliable energy amid disrupted oil and gas supplies. Worldwide coal consumption has risen by roughly 1.3 billion tons since 2020, reaching...
China Slashes Crude Imports, Doubles Floating Storage
China's crude oil imports declined by about 490 kb/d in March YoY. Floating storage more than doubled. Onshore storage increased by about 66 mb. China knew...
Asian Oil Stocks Plunge, US And
Major drop in crude oil inventories in Japan, followed by India. US and China are up! Make you own conclusions.
The High Price of Everything, Explained
Vox’s Explain It to Me podcast breaks down why everyday essentials—gasoline, coffee, and milk—are hitting record prices. Gas prices surge as the Iran‑Houthi conflict chokes the Strait of Hormuz, limiting crude supplies and forcing the U.S. to import heavier grades...
Funds Go Net Long Wheat, Snap Corn Buying Streak
📈Funds are record bullish CBOT soybean oil & Minne wheat, and they're now net long in CBOT wheat for the first time in nearly 4 years. But funds' corn buying streak snapped. I discuss implications of specs' latest positioning in Sunday's...
Oil Price Worries Echo Past Cycle‑ending Patterns
In hindsight this entire process would have appeared extremely obvious. While it's easy to call those that express concern over oil prices as "doomers," this is a similar process that has ended business cycles of the past. https://t.co/Wzv4xeZP1C
California’s Hell’s Kitchen Lithium Project Stalls Amid Permitting, Price and Water Disputes
Rod Colwell’s Hell’s Kitchen lithium project in Imperial County has hit a wall as environmental lawsuits, falling lithium prices and a dispute over water and power supplies delay the rollout. Governor Gavin Newsom’s earlier promises of a 12,000‑job boom now...
USDA Surprises with Corn Acre Gains; Fertilizer May Trim
USDA Corn Acres Surprise, But Fertilizer Could Cut Them Back | Mike Castle https://t.co/KLu30ieo06 via @YouTube
US Crude Production Hits Record, Global Impacts Loom
US crude oil production breaks new records. What does this mean for other countries? For the American public? More charts and graphs featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/WAXH5XLi1r
Jet Fuel Peaks at $1,900/Tonne, Threatening European Airline Stocks and Holiday Travel
Jet fuel surged to a record $1,900 per tonne, prompting Ryanair to warn up to 10% of its summer flights could be axed and forcing Aurigny to add a £2 (≈$2.55) surcharge. The spike threatens airline earnings and tourism‑linked equities...
US Gas Stocks Jump 35 Bcf, Price Slips to $2.95
U.S natural gas comparative rose 35 bcf to a surplus of 32 bcf week ending March 27 Spot price fell $0.16 to $2.95 #energy #NaturalGas #shale #fintwit #oilandgas #Commodities #ONGT #natgas #LNG https://t.co/OmXcB5Bi3n
Oil Shocks Ripple Globally Through Inflation and Rates
“America doesn’t need Hormuz” misses the point, writes @vtchakarova Oil is global. Prices are global. Risk is global. You don’t need the barrels to feel the shock. It hits through inflation, rates, and the system itself. #Oil #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics #Inflation
Diesel Near Record High as Gas Hits $4.11
National avg for gas is now $4.11, per AAA Diesel avg is now $5.61 (just 20 cents below all-time high)
Risk, Not Policy, Stalls Hormuz Oil Shipments
Hormuz tanker exemptions change nothing, writes @CRUDEOIL231 Without ships willing to enter Hormuz, the barrels don’t move. The constraint isn’t policy—it’s risk, insurance, and tanker availability. A few ships don’t fix the energy crisis #Oil #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics
Demand Decline, Not Tight Supply, Threatens Beef Prices
Most people are bullish cattle because "supply is tight." But tight supply is already priced in. The real risk? Demand bending. Consumers trading down to chicken. Packers pulling back. Weights creeping up. When everyone agrees, that's when the market turns. @DynamicWealth_ breaks it down...
Gulf Oil Disruption Hits Asian Nations, Fuels Global Price Surge
The bulk of crude oil out of the Persian Gulf - before the war - went to Asia. That dependence is now creating a giant hole, which is what's driving up oil prices globally. Especially hard hit are Pakistan (PK),...
Japan Secures Four Months of Naphtha Supply
Japan has secured at least four months of naphtha, Prime Minister Takaichi says 🇯🇵 🛢️ 📌 Two months' worth of imported naphtha already procured 📌 Two months' worth of inventories