Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Ontario Fertilizer Supply Looks Stable but Logistics and Timing Could Be Challenging, Say Retailers
Ontario’s fertilizer market entered the 2026 planting season with a relatively comfortable supply outlook, though global nitrogen prices stay high. The province can only store a fraction of its annual need, so most product arrives just before peak demand, creating a narrow window for growers. Logistics are emerging as the critical bottleneck, with tight delivery windows if an early spring accelerates field work. Agronomists note modest nitrogen rate cuts as growers seek to preserve margins without sacrificing yields.
Boost SPR Now to Hedge Future Conflict‑Driven Oil Spikes
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Approximate capacity 714M barrels Current Status 415M barrels Just a thought, next time military actions might have consequences that may disrupt or otherwise cause the prices of Crude, fuel, gas to spike, you should increase the SPR...
5 Big Energy Stories - 4.7.2026: The Supply Shock Is Coming Sooner Than You Think
A looming global commodity supply shock is triggered by the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, where a large share of LNG, fertilizers, helium, ammonia, sulfur, aluminum and petrochemical feedstocks historically transited. Qatar’s LNG exports, representing roughly 17‑20% of worldwide...
Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief
U.S. corn, soybeans and wheat futures slipped this morning as traders took light profits and awaited the upcoming USDA WASDE report. The USDA is not expected to alter corn or soybean balance sheets, while wheat ending stocks are projected to...
Coffee: A Record Harvest Looking for a Price to Match
Coffee futures slipped to 295.4¢ per pound, down 2.1% after peaking above 390¢ in late 2023. The decline reflects a record‑size Brazilian Arabica harvest, with forecasts now near 76 million bags, pushing global coffee supply to a historic 180 million bags. Vietnam’s...
Oil Spike Triggers Fuel Surcharges From Amazon, UPS, FedEx and USPS
Amazon, UPS, FedEx and the U.S. Postal Service have each imposed temporary fuel surcharges—3.5% for Amazon’s third‑party sellers and up to 8% for USPS packages—as Brent crude jumps to $141 per barrel following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz....
FTSE 100 Nudges to 10,462 as Energy Stocks Lift UK Market Amid Middle East Tensions
London’s FTSE 100 climbed 25.6 points to 10,461.88 on April 7, 2026, as energy giants Shell and BP buoyed the index amid heightened Middle‑East geopolitical risk. The modest gain reflects a tug‑of‑war between oil‑price support and cautious sentiment over U.S....
IMF Warns Iran War Acts as ‘Sudden Tax’ on Fuel-Importers, Driving Oil Above $110/Bbl
The IMF warned that the Iran war has become a “sudden tax” on fuel‑importing nations as Brent crude surged past $110 per barrel and U.S. WTI settled at $112.41. Higher energy costs are feeding inflation, tightening fiscal space and threatening...
Australian Coal Prices Surge 30% as Asia Shifts From Gas
AUSTRALIA’s coal export prices have risen by around 25-30% compared with the start of the year. Front-month Newcastle coal futures have averaged $137 per tonne so far in April up from $108 in January. Electricity generators across South and East...
Food Prices Stable Now, Risk Rising Post‑2026 Conflict
Food prices are stable for now, supported by sufficient availability & high stocks, with only marginal inflation across major economies. But if the conflict persists, risks shift forward: higher input costs or shift to other crops will push prices up...
Industry Perspectives Op-Ed: Is Canada Prepared for a Global Energy Shock?
Canada faces a looming energy shock as the Strait of Hormuz closure curtails roughly one‑fifth of global oil flow, prompting the United States to draw down 172 million barrels from its strategic reserve at a $20 billion cost. The op‑ed warns that...
China’s Coal‑Based Urea Shields It From Fertiliser Price Spikes
China produces ~80% of its urea from coal rather than (as most other nations do) natural gas. The method is insulating Beijing from rising nitrogen fertiliser prices. I wrote ⤵️ this @Opinion column about the Chinese coal-to-chemicals industry last June. https://t.co/TQg6HHD3J8
War‑Driven Food Prices Shift Slightly, Crisis Not Imminent
Key food commodity prices since US-Iran war started: 🍚 Rice: ⬇️ -6.3% 🌾 Wheat: ⬇️ -0.5% 🥫 Soybean: ⬆️ +0.6% 🌽 Corn: ...
Beer Cans, Helium Balloons and Mortgages: An Unexpected Mix of Things Affected by War
The Iran‑War’s disruption of the Strait of Hormuz is rippling far beyond oil, driving up prices for aluminum, helium, fertilizer, sulfur and petrochemicals. Aluminum cans for beer and soda, helium for balloons and MRI machines, and key agricultural inputs are...
Cocoa: When Short Covering Is the Only Bull in the Room
ICE cocoa futures (May 2026) edged up 2.5% to $3,245 per tonne, but the rally was driven by short‑covering rather than fundamentals. Global surplus estimates have risen, with ICCO forecasting a 75,000‑tonne excess in 2024/25 and StoneX projecting over 250,000...
How the US–Iran War Is Disrupting LPG Supply in Meghalaya and Tripura
The US‑Iran conflict has choked the Strait of Hormuz, the conduit for roughly 90% of India’s imported LPG, creating a supply shock. In the Northeast, Tripura and Meghalaya are seeing long queues as hospitals receive full quotas while commercial users...
Iranian Crude Trades at a Premium to Brent After US Waives Sanctions
The United States temporarily lifted the ban on Iranian crude on March 20, allowing Iran’s light oil to re‑enter global markets. This policy shift pushed Iranian crude $1 above the Brent benchmark, its first premium since May 2022, and narrowed the Brent‑Urals...
How Trump’s Iran Threat Is Hitting Oil, Inflation and Markets
President Donald Trump’s threat to eliminate Iran in a single night sparked an immediate surge in oil prices, pushing crude above $110 per barrel. Traders quickly priced in the heightened risk to the Strait of Hormuz, prompting equity markets to...
Sugar: The Surplus That Rallies Cannot Outrun
ICE White Sugar futures for May 2026 slid about 5% to $435.7 per tonne, after peaking at six‑month highs earlier in the week. The drop was driven by fresh production data showing India’s output up 9% YoY to 27.1 million tonnes...
China Continues to Pile Into Gold as Reserves Climb for a 17th Straight Month
China’s gold reserves rose to 74.38 million troy ounces in March, marking the 17th consecutive month of net purchases and bringing the total to roughly 2,300 metric tonnes. Although the ounce count increased, the reported value fell to $342.76 billion from...
Filipino Farmers Leave Crops to Rot as Fuel Prices Drive up Cost of Harvest
Filipino vegetable growers in Benguet are leaving fields unharvested as soaring fuel prices—driven by the Middle‑East conflict—push labour, transport and packing costs above market prices. The surge in oil costs, combined with weak buyer demand, forces farmers like Romeo Wagayan...
India Back to Buying Venezuelan Crude
India is set to import over 12 million barrels of Venezuelan crude this month, the highest volume since February 2020, as it seeks to replace Middle‑East supplies disrupted by the Iran war. The cargoes, mainly the sulfur‑rich Merey blend, were secured before...
USDA Cotton Report Reflects Few U.S., World Changes
The USDA’s March cotton report shows a modest shift in global supply, with world production rising by 1.13 million bales, driven primarily by Brazil (+750,000) and China (+500,000). Imports increased 200,000 bales while exports grew 200,000 bales, all from Australia. World...
Time to Price New Grain Amid Iran Conflict?
U.S. farmers face sharply higher fertilizer costs as anhydrous ammonia rose 30% and urea jumped nearly 47% between February and early April, driven by supply chain constraints, tariffs and the Iran conflict. The country relies heavily on imports for key...
Gold Tracks More Sideways Awaiting Further US-Iran Developments
Gold hovered around $4,640 on the day, slipping just 0.1% and remaining trapped in the $4,600‑$4,700 band that formed after last week’s drop. The metal tested the 100‑hour moving average near $4,660, while the daily 200‑day average around $4,658 continues...
Iran's Moves
What Iran means for the dollar: a perfect storm for the petrodollar - Deutsche Bank Research Institute https://t.co/gVdGKCUzyc Why have fiat as an intermediary when you could trade oil tokens for wheat tokens (or whatever) ? https://t.co/ocO6m7zPVd
Potash Prices Remain Stable Amid Fertilizer Market Shifts
CHARTS OF THE DAY: Not every fertiliser price is going up. Back in 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine, nitrogen fertilisers (urea and ammonia) rose shaprly. AT THE SAME TIME, potash fertiliser (potassium chloride) also surged. This time, potash fertilisers are little changed....
Grower Group Makes Plea to Supermarkets over Price Increases
The National Farmers Federation’s Horticulture Council has sent an open letter to Australia’s major supermarkets, demanding a swift response to supplier price‑increase requests triggered by the oil crisis. Rising fuel and freight costs, with surcharges reaching up to 65% of...
Weekly Kill: Grid Prices Stabilise, After some Big Pre-Easter Falls
Australian slaughter grids across eastern Australia have steadied after a sharp 30‑40 c/kg dip last week, with most direct consignment offers holding steady. Rising fuel and freight costs are adding up to 70 c/kg to purchase prices, squeezing processor margins. Easter‑shortened weeks...
Fuel Crunch: Does Australia Have Enough Cards to Keep up Supply?
Australia faces a fuel crunch as global oil supplies dip 20% and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The government has secured enough refined fuel to last until May, but without sizable domestic stockpiles it must lean on alternative sources,...
FAO Warns Global Food Prices Will Continue to Increase if Iran War Lasts
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization said the Food Price Index rose 2.4% in March, its highest level since September 2022, as oil‑driven energy costs lift commodity prices. Wheat prices jumped 4.3% while fertilizer cost pressures threaten planting decisions in...
East Coast Tour Bus Operators Face Shutdown over Diesel Price Hike
Around 1,000 East Coast Malaysian tour‑bus operators, excluded from the Subsidised Diesel Control System, face possible shutdown after diesel surged to RM6.02 per litre (about $1.32). Rental fees jumped 30‑40%, pushing a Kota Bharu‑Kuala Lumpur round‑trip from RM3,000 to RM5,000 (≈$660‑$1,100), prompting...
Middle Eastern Crisis – Live Updates – WC 6th April 2026
Episode 3’s latest live feed shows Australian landed urea prices soaring to A$1,445‑A$1,495 per tonne (approximately $950‑$990 USD), surpassing the peak levels seen during the first year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Diesel imports are on track to outpace last year,...
Feedgrain Focus: Volatility Kills Volume, Short Trips Appeal
Feedgrain values firmed last week as soaring diesel and urea costs forced growers to rethink grain logistics. Traders shifted volume to regional warehouses, preferring short‑haul trips that can be back‑loaded with limited fertiliser supplies. Southern farms, buoyed by recent rains,...
Clearance Slumps to 49pc in Small 9219 Head Online Offering; Prices Under Pressure
Clearance on AuctionsPlus fell to 49%, a 21‑point weekly decline, as the offering shrank to 9,219 head – a 62% drop from the prior two weeks’ 26,000‑head listings. Prices slipped across most weight categories, with light steers under 200 kg losing...
Taiwan Boosts Coal Power as Gas Supply Falters
KING COAL STRIKES AGAIN 🪨🪨🪨 Taiwan will increase coal-fired power generation to bolster energy security, as the war in the Middle East crimps gas supplies The Mailiao coal-fired power plant will ramp up output from its No. 1 and 3 units https://t.co/jXfSAf3HMo
Strait Opening Won’t Quickly Resolve Aluminum Supply Disruptions
The opening of the strait doesn't automatically fix the supply problems. As with oil - aluminium. EGA's is saying its giant aluminum plant could take a year to start back up after the strikes a few days ago. The strikes...
Fertiliser Webinar – Sign Up Now.
A free, nationwide webinar on 8 April 2026 will reveal the real state of fertiliser supply in Australia as global demand spikes and freight constraints tighten. Organisers will break down what fertiliser is actually arriving, where shortfalls may occur, and how international...
Demand Destruction Is Permanent, Decline Is Temporary
I AM GOING TO WEAR MY PROFESSOR'S HAT TONIGHT: ✳️"Demand destruction" is one thing. "Demand decline" is another. ✳️Oil investors don’t talk about “demand destruction.” We talk about “demand decline.” 🔸Destruction = gone forever. 🔸Decline = comes back.
Grains Remain on the Uncertainty Roundabout
Global grain markets have softened as improved U.S. rainfall forecasts eased bullish sentiment on winter wheat, while USDA reports only 35 % of the crop in good-to-excellent condition, below expectations. Funds have rapidly unwound long positions built on weather risk, pushing...
Markets Price Today, Not Tomorrow—Explosive Shift Imminent
Markets aren’t pricing what’s coming—they’re pricing what is, says Jeff Currie. And right now, there’s no shortage. But when “later” becomes “now,” the market has to clear. That’s when things get explosive. #Oil #Markets #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics
Manufacturing Expands Despite Oil Surge and Negative Sentiment
Oil prices spiking from geopolitical chaos, yet manufacturing PMI just hit its highest level since 2022. Firms are expanding even as 64% of their comments turn negative. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/y8VyQR2euZ
Sky-High Fuel Prices Will Drive Ship Efficiency Retrofits
U.S. efforts to block the IMO’s Net Zero Framework are unintentionally accelerating maritime sustainability as Middle‑East attacks drive bunker fuel prices to historic highs. The surge in marine fuel costs dramatically shortens the payback horizon for efficiency retrofits, making measures...
WA Post-Record Crop Could Be as Small as 15Mt: MP
Western Australia, Australia’s top grain producer, faces a severe urea shortage linked to the Iran‑Israel‑US conflict, prompting MP Rick Wilson to warn that the 2026‑27 crop could fall to around 15 million tonnes – roughly a 45 percent drop from the record...
Processors Chase Cattle as Yardings Turn Uneven
Australian beef processors intensified activity in March, but supply gains are uneven across states. Yardings rose to near‑full capacity in New South Wales (99%) and Queensland (55%) while falling sharply in Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia, prompting processors to...
Global Lamb Pricing Update
Global lamb prices have diverged sharply in 2026. Australian lamb rose 47% to about 1,109 A¢/kg (≈ $7.3 per kg), while U.S. lamb surged 61% to 2,120 A¢/kg (≈ $14 per kg), the highest worldwide. The UK/EU market sits near 1,534 A¢/kg (≈ $10 per kg), and New Zealand remains the cheapest at...
Wagyu Price Update for 2025
Australian Wagyu prices continued their gradual recovery in Q4 2025, with every genetic category posting higher averages than the previous quarter. F1 cattle rose to $1,797 per head, while Full‑blood Wagyu reached $4,418 per head, still well below the 2021‑22 peak...
Waiver Misses Domestic Oil Boost, Exports Surge
JUST IN: Trump's shipping waiver failed to increase domestic oil flows, but US fuel exports are surging.
Power Rates Unchanged Till September
Taiwan's Executive Yuan announced that electricity tariffs will stay unchanged from this month through September, and fuel prices will remain flat for the week. The ministry instructed CPC Corp and Formosa Petrochemical to maintain stable production and secure sufficient oil...
Saudi Arabia Raises Asia Oil Price to Record
Saudi Aramco announced a record‑high Arab Light price for Asia, adding a $19.50 premium over regional benchmarks for next‑month sales. The hike follows a widening Middle East conflict and Iran’s near‑closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has strained global...