Know What's Happening in Commodities
Know What's Happening in Commodities
OPEC+ agrees to modest oil quota increase amid Middle East war
OPEC+ members agreed in principle to raise oil production quotas for May by roughly 206,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia and Russia led the video‑conference decision as the conflict in the Middle East constrains output and shipments. Delegates said the move signals alliance cohesion despite the geopolitical shock.
Also developing:
On February 19, 2026, the U.S. spot cash electricity market posted a 3.2% increase in average price, reaching $58.4 per megawatt‑hour. The rise reflected higher natural‑gas forward curves and a dip in wind generation across the Midwest. Day‑ahead trading volumes also expanded, indicating heightened hedging activity among utilities. Analysts attribute the movement to a combination of weather‑driven demand spikes and constrained supply.
Tongaat Hulett, South Africa's leading sugar producer, is heading for provisional liquidation after its business rescue plan collapsed. The Vision Group's acquisition of lender claims and a debt‑to‑equity swap failed, leaving the rescue unimplementable. Cosatu warns the collapse will trigger...
The Trump administration announced that SoftBank’s U.S. affiliate SB Energy will develop a proposed 9.2‑GW, $33 billion natural‑gas power complex near Portsmouth, Ohio. The project is the flagship of a $36 billion first tranche of a $550 billion U.S.–Japan strategic investment framework that...
In this episode of Commodity Week, Todd Gleason, joined by ag analysts Jim McCormick and Logan Kimmel, breaks down the USDA Outlook Forum numbers for 2026, focusing on corn, soybean, and wheat markets. They warn that old‑crop corn carry‑out could...
Rupert Resources has engaged Auscenco Engineering to head the feasibility study for the Ikkari gold project in northern Finland, a multi‑million‑ounce development slated for completion by mid‑2027. The study builds on recent optimisation work that delivered over 95% gold recoveries...
Rare earth prices have surged about 42% year‑to‑date, yet most junior stocks remain flat, creating a valuation disconnect. Acorn Capital’s Rick Squire sees this inefficiency as a buying opportunity for ASX‑listed explorers focused on low‑capex, fast‑track projects. He highlights ionic‑clay...
Fastmarkets announced a delayed release of the MB-STE-0464 price for HMS 1&2 steel scrap (80:20 mix) imported to Taiwan. The price reflects US material imports, CFR main port Taiwan, and is part of Fastmarkets' scrap package. The notice invites market participants...
The Canadian Steel Producers Association (CSPA) argues that the U.S. Section 232 steel tariffs are unjustified, noting Canada is not a dumping ground or transshipment hub. Since the tariffs took effect, Canada has lost roughly 2 million metric tons of steel...
Kazakhstan’s thermal coal production slipped 1.7% YoY to 9.92 million tonnes in January, while total coal output fell 0.7% to 10.31 million tonnes. Despite the dip, the government is rolling out a national project to add about 7.6 GW of coal‑fired capacity by...
The Spanish electricity spot index plunged to an average €12.66/MWh for 1‑20 February, far below the €50.55/MWh forward contract and last year’s €116.88/MWh level. Wind generation surged 123% year‑on‑year to 11.2 GW, while gas‑fired output fell 25% to 3.6 GW, driving the price...
The episode outlines Namibia’s rise to become the world’s third‑largest uranium producer, delivering 7,333 tonnes in 2024 and targeting 8,000‑9,000 tonnes in 2025. It highlights the country’s three flagship mines—Husab, Rössing, and the revived Langer Heinrich—along with their robust infrastructure,...
Trader PhD’s February 2026 acreage survey shows U.S. corn plantings slipping 1.4% to 97.3 million acres, while soybean acres climb 3.5% to 84.2 million. Wheat acreage is projected at a record‑low 42.2 million acres, a 7.3% decline. Sixty‑two percent of growers cite normal crop...
Fastmarkets announced a proposal to discontinue two Category 3 animal‑fat price assessments – AG‑TLW‑0028 (high‑grade bone fat) and AG‑TLW‑0029 (pure beef tallow) – for DDP Northwest Europe. The move is attributed to insufficient market liquidity for these contracts. A public consultation...
The Democratic Republic of Congo has placed the rebel‑held Rubaya coltan mine on a shortlist of strategic assets offered to the United States under a new minerals‑cooperation framework. Rubaya, which supplies roughly 15% of the world’s coltan, requires between $50 million...
Truth from @ClydeCommods 👇 The Iran risk premium assumes a deal or a contained strike that leaves flows intact What if Iran stops playing by the “keep oil flowing” rule & targets infrastructure to force political outcomes? That tail risk is higher than...
Brazos Midstream commissioned its largest cryogenic plant, Sundance II, adding 300 MMcfd of processing capacity in the Midland Basin and joining the 200 MMcfd Sundance I that began operations in 2024. The company also broke ground on Cassidy I, another 300 MMcfd cryogenic facility in Glasscock...
Orsted’s Hornsea 3 chief announced the collapse of a major monopile contract, forcing the 2.9 GW offshore wind project to pause its foundation procurement. The decision highlights the difficulty of securing large‑scale steel structures for the UK’s expanding offshore wind fleet....
The Trump administration has issued new licenses permitting several Western oil companies to operate in Venezuela, potentially boosting the country's output by 30‑40 percent—roughly 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day—this year. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the increase would represent...
Equinor has scrapped its Dutch H2M Eemshaven CCS‑hydrogen project, citing policy uncertainty and insufficient funding, while the Belgian H2BE plant remains on schedule. Both plants were designed to produce 210,000 t/yr of low‑carbon hydrogen using autothermal reforming and each received roughly €160 million...
The U.S. Energy Information Administration trimmed its gasoline price outlook, now projecting an average of $2.91 per gallon in 2026 and $2.93 in 2027, down slightly from the January forecast of $2.92 and $2.95. The agency’s short‑term energy outlook still...
The European Commission has granted strategic status to four African mineral projects—two in South Africa and Zambia, plus sites in Malawi and Madagascar—under the Critical Raw Materials Act, with decisions due in Q2 2026. The Zandkopsdrift rare‑earth operation in South Africa...
Shell has launched a multi‑well offshore drilling campaign off Egypt using Stena Drilling’s sixth‑generation IceMax drillship. The first wells, Mina West development followed by Sirius and Velox exploration, are located in the Northeast El Amriya concession where Shell holds a...
Martin Midstream Partners reported a $14.7 million net loss for 2025, widening from a $5.2 million loss in 2024. The loss was driven primarily by $57.8 million in interest expense and higher SG&A costs, while adjusted EBITDA fell to $99 million for the year....
South African phosphate rock producer Kropz has lifted monthly output to roughly 40,000 tonnes, a 33% increase over last year. The company now ships rock averaging 30% P₂O₅, but recently exported a 31.1% P₂O₅ cargo to South Korea, its highest‑grade...
Saudi Maaden announced the sale of 45,000‑50,000 tonnes of diammonium phosphate (DAP) at $715‑720 per tonne FOB, with loading slated for early March. The cargo is destined for Latin America, with Argentina emerging as the most probable off‑take market. Net...
Technical analysts note a bond breakout as yields pierce a key resistance, suggesting upward momentum in fixed‑income markets. Meanwhile, gold charts display a bullish continuation pattern, reinforcing optimism for further price gains. Silver is experiencing a short‑term retracement, testing a...
A new UCL Shipping and Oceans Research Group report evaluates three IMO Net Zero Framework (NZF) scenarios and finds that only the framework "as‑is" delivers a credible, stable demand signal for scalable zero‑emission fuels. The analysis warns that removing the...
CLANCs = Copper, Lithium, Aluminum, Nickel, Cobalt. Copper ripped 30% in Jan, then erased ~1/3 — still ~+20% YTD. Secular shortage story → oversupply in days as inventories hit multi-year highs. For decades, digital dominated physical. The physical world is back with a...
Copper prices have surged to an average of $13,012/mt in January 2026 from $8,991/mt a year ago. That's a WHOPPING 44% INCREASE. BUY COPPER, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/FIhvIikhjQ
Vedanta Ltd. is trading at a discount to its aluminium peers, and Kotak Securities believes the company is well positioned to benefit from a strong aluminium price environment. Aluminium prices slipped to $3,030 per tonne, pressured by a firmer US...
Expectations of a possible US strike on Iran—currently oscillating between wait-and-see and watchful anticipation—have introduced a risk premium into an otherwise well-supplied oil market. My talk w/ @KellyCNBC @CNBCTheExchange https://t.co/XwyD5XmiRg
Iran risk is unpriceable, writes Rabobank's Joe DeLaura. No strike and oil fades to the low $60s. A strike and $90+ is immediate. What matters isn’t the spike, it’s how long the disruption lasts. #OilMarkets #Iran #Hormuz #Geopolitics #EnergySecurity https://t.co/L6wTlG3QZf
Gaztransport & Technigaz (GTT) secured tank‑design contracts for six new LNG carriers, four for Shandong Marine Energy via Jiangnan shipyard and two for Samsung Heavy Industries. Each vessel will carry roughly 174‑175,000 cubic metres of LNG using GTT’s Mark III Flex membrane...
Venezuela’s oil “revival” is being wildly oversold. It’s a salvage operation. Rusted pipes, polluted lakes, broken upgraders, and legal risk everywhere. You can’t fix 20 years of decay with a few rigs & a pep talk. https://t.co/tmf2KANGJr #OilMarkets #Venezuela #EnergyReality #Sanctions #crudeoil
1. Something unusual happened to a key indicator of operational efficiency in the U.S. ethanol industry in 2025. See my latest FDD for all the details: https://t.co/ehKyQvEQGp
Russia performed its first triple LNG ship‑to‑ship (STS) transfer in Arctic waters, linking two Arctic LNG 2 cargos and one Yamal LNG cargo to conventional tankers. The operation took place in the Murmansk region, using the Saam floating storage unit for two...
Germany’s passenger‑vehicle manufacturing sector is set to see a drop in electricity consumption as overall car output declines, VDA chief economist Manuel Kallweit warned. Power use fell to 12.86 TWh in 2024, about 2.8% of national electricity, and is projected to...
Mubadala and Kimmeridge’s joint venture Caturus will buy SM Energy’s Galvan Ranch for $950 million, adding 250 MMcfed production from 260 wells. Post‑deal, pro‑forma net output rises to about 950 MMcfed. The acquisition gives Caturus over 275,000 net acres across the Gulf Coast...
Borr Drilling now has 25 of its 29 jack‑up rigs either under bareboat charter or with confirmed jobs, covering regions from Southeast Asia to the Americas. The firm’s day‑rate equivalent backlog grew to $1.2 billion, reflecting more than 1,150 contracted days....
EU GAS STORAGE facilities are now less than one-third full, with more than a month of the winter heating season probably still ahead. Storage facilities were on average 32.5% full on February 17, the second lowest seasonal fill in records...
Gary Mar argues that Canada’s $150 billion agriculture sector, responsible for $92 billion in exports and roughly one‑in‑nine jobs, is hampered by fragmented infrastructure and the absence of a coordinated national strategy. He highlights bottlenecks such as rail bridges and interprovincial trade...
One of the best deep dives I’ve seen recently is on the “boring” propane industry, by Emeth Value Capital. Covers regulation, supply & demand, and detailed public company breakdowns. Also part of the $SPB.TO pitch. If you like learning new industries, this...
Kumba Iron Ore says it will wrap up contract negotiations with Chinese steelmakers this year, despite the ongoing dispute between China Minerals Resources Group and major miners. China now represents 56% of Kumba’s 2025 export sales, up from 54% in...
Albemarle announced the care‑and‑maintenance status of its sole remaining lithium‑hydroxide train in Australia, sparking concerns about the nation’s downstream ambitions. Despite this setback, new projects from Tianqi, Mineral Resources and other players are slated to come online by 2028, keeping...
The episode examines the upcoming launch of Nord Pool's electricity futures contracts and the resulting scramble for liquidity across the Nordic power curve, with Nord Pool CEO Tom Darrell and EEX CEO Peter Reitz debating who will dominate. It also...
Fidelity Gold Refinery (FGR) released its official gold buying rates for Zimbabwe on 19 February 2026, quoting prices per gram and per troy ounce. The top tier – Fire Assay cash for gold above 100 g – is $152.01 per gram ($4,728.04 per...
FCAS (Frequency Control Ancillary Services) prices in Australia’s NEM have plummeted since late 2023, falling to well below $2/MW h after a multi‑year decline. The collapse coincides with a rapid expansion of registered FCAS capacity, driven largely by utility‑scale batteries, demand‑response...
Russia’s foreign ministry asserted that India has not altered its policy on buying Russian crude, emphasizing the mutual benefits of the trade. However, Indian import data for January 2026 shows a 40.5% drop in total merchandise from Russia, with crude...
Turkey’s government has banned chicken exports and launched a nationwide crackdown on "exorbitant" food prices as Ramadan begins. Trade inspectors are sweeping markets for hoarding and misleading practices, with fines up to TL 1.8 million for violations. Food inflation is running at...
If the US strikes Iran, it won’t be a weekend event, writes @TheMichaelEvery Retaliation risks include terror cells in Europe The broader Middle East is flammable Energy markets are rightly pricing tail risk—but the real question is duration, not ignition #OilMarkets #Iran #Geopolitics...
