Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Bigger Diesel Price Cut if Middle East Truce Holds
The Philippines may see a larger diesel price cut of P5.50‑P6.50 per litre (about $0.10‑$0.12) next week if the Middle‑East cease‑fire endures. The cut follows double‑digit fuel price spikes that pushed diesel above P170/L ($3.10) and gasoline up 54‑72%. The government also announced a P10‑per‑litre ($0.18) subsidy for public‑utility vehicles, capping savings at roughly $27 weekly. Meanwhile, the DOE has asked the Competition Commission to probe possible cartel‑like pricing among oil firms.
Global Oil Trade Hits Record Amid Saudi Disruptions
🇺🇸US crude oil exports to increase to highest on record 🇮🇳India's Imports from Russia are Near Record High 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia's damaged oil facilities: What is the impact? Daily Energy Report https://t.co/pyGKWXbmpg
Crude Prices Dip Ahead of 'All-Or-Nothing' US-Iran Talks
Crude oil futures fell modestly on Friday as markets awaited a high‑stakes diplomatic meeting between U.S. and Iranian officials in Pakistan. The talks, described as “all‑or‑nothing,” aim to secure a lasting end to the Middle East conflict that has been...
China to Ban Sulfuric Acid Exports as War Hits Supply
China announced a ban on sulfuric acid exports starting in May, targeting acid produced as a by‑product of copper and zinc smelting. The restriction follows supply disruptions caused by the Iran‑Israel war, which has choked sulfur shipments from the Middle...
Gulf Allays Concerns over LNG Supplies
Gulf Development Plc, Thailand’s largest energy firm, said its LNG supply remained stable despite recent spot‑price spikes caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure and disruptions in Qatar’s exports. The company has diversified its gas purchases, notably sourcing from Nigeria,...
Near-Record Storage, Early Snowmelt Hammer Western Gas Demand
An unusually warm winter has driven gas inventories across the western United States to near‑record levels, with storage now approaching 96% of historical capacity. The rapid snowmelt has also depleted the region’s snowpack, reducing hydroelectric generation by roughly 30% earlier...
Market View: US Gas Futures Tumble to 18-Month Low
U.S. natural‑gas futures dropped to an 18‑month trough this week as seasonal demand weakened during the shoulder months. A brief burst of colder weather was insufficient to lift prices, which slipped to roughly $1.70 per MMBtu, the lowest level since...
Iran War: Expensive Oil Drives Rising Inflation in U.S.
The ongoing Iran‑War has choked oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing diesel prices up 55% year‑to‑date and sparking a sharp energy‑price shock. In March, the energy component of the CPI jumped 10.9%, while the gasoline index surged...
Energy & Utilities Roundup: Market Talk
Crude futures fell on Tuesday as investors weighed the impact of upcoming U.S.-Iran talks on the Strait of Hormuz. WTI settled at $96.57 a barrel, down 1.3% and 13% for the week, while Brent slipped to $95.20, a 0.8% decline...
U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Does Little for Fertilizer Availability, Prices
The recent U.S.-Iran cease‑fire will not quickly restore fertilizer flows through the Strait of Hormuz, according to StoneX market specialist Josh Linville. About 930,000 tons of fertilizer are stranded on ships, yet India alone still requires roughly 600,000 tons more to meet...
Cattle Futures Finish the Week Higher
Cattle futures closed the week higher on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, with June live cattle up $2 to $240.20 and August live cattle gaining $1.40 to $244.75 per hundredweight. Feeder cattle also rose, as May contracts added $1.92 to $372.25...
Oil Prices Drop After Iran Ceasefire, Hormuz Still Closed
🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude prices collapsed following the announcement of an Iran War ceasefire, during which attacks have continued, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which remains closed; all eyes on weekend negotiations Summary below, full report...
Friday Footnotes April 10, 2026
Corn and wheat futures have slipped back to pre‑war price levels, with December corn now about 26 cents below its recent peak and July wheat roughly 70 cents lower. Soybean crush margins remain stronger, buoyed by biofuel news released in late March....
Oil & Iran War Context Weekly (W15)
Oil prices plunged more than $14 per barrel after the Iran‑Israel ceasefire announcement, marking the steepest weekly drop since the conflict began. Brent prompt futures settled near $97/bbl while Dated Brent spot hovered around $130 after hitting a record $144.46....
Why Opening the Strait of Hormuz Won’t Immediately Lower Gas Prices
The New York Times explains that even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, gasoline prices will not fall right away. While the waterway carries roughly 20% of global oil shipments, damage to dozens of Gulf refineries, pipelines and export terminals...
“Parking Equipment”: Minnesota Ag Commissioner Says Farmers Are Sitting Out 2026
Minnesota Agriculture Commissioner Thom Petersen warned that negative profit margins are prompting a handful of grain growers to sit out the 2026 crop year, effectively "parking" their equipment. He said some farmers are choosing to rent their land for roughly...
Amazon Adds 3.5% Fuel Surcharge to Third‑party Deliveries as Oil Prices Surge
Amazon announced a 3.5% temporary fuel surcharge on its Fulfillment by Amazon (FBA) and related third‑party services, effective April 17. The charge targets sellers, not Prime customers, and could pressure the $172 billion marketplace segment while AWS and advertising continue to...
Strait of Hormuz Constraints Keep Oil Prices Elevated
Oil prices hover near $100 per barrel despite the U.S.–Iran cease‑fire, because the Strait of Hormuz remains tightly controlled by Iran’s IRGC. Traffic through the chokepoint is limited to managed routes, preventing a return to normal commercial shipping. Analysts from...
Wholesale Rice Prices up 7% as West Asia Ceasefire Fuels Export Rush
India's wholesale rice prices jumped up to 7% in two days after a US‑Iran ceasefire sparked a surge in export orders to the Middle East and the United States. Prices had previously fallen up to 6% due to disruptions from...
Crude Oil Futures Settles at $96.57. Down Sharply on the Week
Crude oil futures settled at $96.57 on Friday, down 1.33% for the day and 14.3% for the week. Prices remain below the 100‑hour ($102.87) and 200‑hour ($103.57) moving averages, reflecting market discounting a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz...
Platinum Surges 7%—Could Breach $2,300, Eye $3k
Platinum $PLAT. Monthly. +7.2%. Inflation returns ... and it begs the question: 'Will Platinum take out $2,300/oz resistance and head back higher toward $3K?" https://t.co/Oi2arghgMa
Energy Spot Index Surges 50% in 2026
Time to get excited about energy markets? The Bloomberg Energy Spot Subindex is up almost 50% in 2026, to unchanged since 2005! https://t.co/mPF44O7Vkt
Daily Energy Report
The United States is set to ship a record 5 million barrels of crude per day from the Gulf Coast in May 2026, up from 4.9 mb/d in April and 3.97 mb/d in March. The surge follows a sharp decline in exports that...
Commodities Hit Record Highs, 83% in Uptrends
Commodities (per the Bloomberg Commodity Spot index below) are at new highs, driven largely but not exclusively by energy. Some 83% of the components in the BCOMSP are in uptrends. https://t.co/p7ml7lMWnw
Empty VLCCs Rush to US, Relieving Hormuz‑Starved Markets
Very cool seeing the wave of empty tankers heading to the US to pick up some desperately needed crude for Hormuz-starved markets. All the tankers on the map below are empty VLCCs (~2 million barrel capacity each) currently heading for the...
Hardly Any Ships Getting Through Strait of Hormuz
Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted to historic lows, with daily transits now under ten vessels—a roughly 70% decline from pre‑conflict levels. The slowdown follows heightened Iranian missile threats and tighter naval inspections, prompting many carriers to...
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COST OF LIVING CRUNCH: Food or Paraffin? SA’s Poorest Forced to Choose as Prices Double
South Africa’s paraffin price more than doubled in April, climbing from R11.52 ($0.61) to R23.19 ($1.22) per litre and reaching a retail ceiling of R31.47 ($1.66). Over 500,000 households – many in informal settlements – depend on paraffin for cooking,...
European Airports Warn of Jet Fuel Shortages Within Weeks
Airports Council International (ACI) Europe warns that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger jet‑fuel shortages across the EU within weeks. About half of Europe’s jet fuel is sourced through the Persian Gulf, and prices have surged...
Nigeria a Net Gasoline Exporter for First Time in March
Nigeria became a net exporter of gasoline in March, the first time since the Dangote refinery began operations. The refinery processed 565,000 barrels per day of crude, producing 44,000 barrels per day of gasoline, of which 40,000 b/d were exported,...
East Coast Gasoline Imports Dip; West Coast Imports Surge Early
East Coast vs. West Coast - Gasoline Imports Edition: Interesting trend developing in weekly data. The U.S. East Coast, typically the region that imports the most, has imports falling counter-seasonally. The West Coast, which has growing imports, has imports increasing...
Hormuz Closure Threatens Global Supply Chain Collapse
We said if Hormuz stayed close until mid-April, global supply chains were mathematically certain to begin collapsing, including in the US. Right on cue, on April 10👇 Things will rapidly get much worse from here if Hormuz stays closed “What’s the trade?” =...
Iran War Drives Deeper Oil Shock Than Prices Reveal
The Iran‑Israel conflict has pushed the physical spot price of crude to a record $145 a barrel, more than double the level before the Feb. 28 attacks, while the widely quoted Brent futures linger around $109. The widening gap between futures...
Silver Miners Poised to Outpace Upcoming Price Rally
Silver Miners $SILJ vs Price of Silver $SLV. Are Silver stocks coiling ahead of their next advance? https://t.co/euKkgG5sKP
Why Investing in Wind and Solar to Avoid Gas Shocks Hasn’t Added Up for Some
Europe’s aggressive rollout of wind and solar has not uniformly shielded countries from soaring gas‑driven electricity prices. Germany now boasts more renewable capacity than Spain, yet its wholesale power costs still surge when natural‑gas prices spike. By contrast, Spain’s electricity...
Baker Hughes Rig Count -3 at 545
The Baker Hughes weekly rig count slipped by three to a total of 545 rigs, with oil rigs unchanged at 411 and natural‑gas rigs falling to 127. Crude oil prices nudged up $0.57 to $98.45 per barrel, yet the weekly...
Africa’s Solar Costs Could Rise as China Cuts Export Subsidies
China will end its 9 % export tax rebate on photovoltaic modules, cells and inverters on April 1, prompting African power developers to rush purchases before prices rise. Solar accounts for just 3 % of Africa’s electricity but is expanding rapidly through mini‑grids...
Hormuz Strait Crisis Drives Oil to Record Highs, Forces China to Draw Reserves
The protracted closure of the Strait of Hormuz has lifted Brent crude past $100 a barrel and sent North Sea Forties Blend to a record $147, prompting China to tap its commercial oil reserves and curb refined fuel exports. The...
U.S. CPI Jumps 3.3% in March as Oil Shock From Iran War Fuels Inflation
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 3.3% year‑over‑year rise in U.S. consumer prices for March, the steepest increase in two years. The surge is tied to an oil shock sparked by the Iran‑Israel war, pushing gasoline to $4.15 a...
Correction to Japan Seamless Linepipe Assessments
Fastmarkets corrected the published FOB prices for Japan‑sourced seamless linepipe. The API 5L B grade price was lowered from $14,500 to $1,450 per tonne, and the API 5L X65 grade from $16,500 to $1,650 per tonne. The updates are now...
Soaring Pump Prices Drive US Inflation to Highest Level in Almost Two Years
U.S. consumer prices rose 3.3% year‑over‑year in March, the fastest pace in almost two years, driven largely by a 21.2% jump in gasoline costs. The surge stems from the U.S.-Israel conflict in Iran, which disrupted oil flow through the Strait...
As Iran War Strains Fuel Supplies, Clean Energy Is Secure Energy
The Iran‑Iran war and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have halted roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows, driving crude toward $100 a barrel and pushing U.S. gasoline above $4 per gallon. Nations that have already built...
Iran War Chokes Strait of Hormuz, Trapping 1.9 Mt Fertiliser and Slashing Global Vessel Traffic
The Iran‑US war has snarled maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving 1.9 million tonnes of fertiliser on 41 vessels – about 12% of the strait’s 2024 output – and driving urea prices up 70%. The disruption has forced airlines...
Gold Plummets 12% in March, Worst Monthly Drop Since 2013
The World Gold Council reported that gold fell 12% in March to $4,608 an ounce, the sharpest monthly decline since June 2013. The slide was driven by massive ETF outflows, a COMEX net‑long unwind and a price‑trend reversal, underscoring a...
European Airports Warn of Jet Fuel Shortages if Strait of Hormuz Remains Shut
Airports Council International Europe warned EU officials that prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger jet‑fuel shortages across the continent. The warning follows President Trump’s cease‑fire pact with Iran, yet tanker traffic remains well below pre‑conflict volumes. The...
Chinese PV Industry Brief: Polysilicon Prices Extend Decline
State-owned CECEP issued 29.5 million convertible bonds, raising ¥2.95 bn ($432 million) to fund six photovoltaic plants and storage projects totaling 900 MW. The total project outlay is about ¥4.57 bn ($670 million). Meanwhile, China’s polysilicon market saw its seventh consecutive weekly price drop, with N‑type...
Coffee Prices: Why 2026 Is Set to Be a Roller-Coaster Ride
Coffee prices, after hitting record highs, have begun to recede but remain well above historical norms. A stronger 2026‑27 Brazil harvest, projected to rise 17% year‑on‑year, could increase supply, while Vietnam’s market volatility and new EU deforestation rules keep the...
Futures Can Diverge From Spot Prices Long-Term
While phys/spot crude $ HAS to reflect immediate supply/demand pressures, and the spread to future cargoes needs to reflect scarcity (backwardation) or surplus (contango), futures $ never NEED to converge—and can remain steeply below—to those same levels in the short/medium-term
The Iran Conflict and Fertilizer Markets: Why Brazil Faces Greater Near-Term Risk than the U.S.
The escalation between the United States, Israel and Iran has forced the Strait of Hormuz to close intermittently, tightening the global fertilizer supply chain and pushing prices to multi‑year highs. Brazil, which imports roughly 99% of its nitrogen, phosphate and...
India to Continue Buying Russian Crude Oil
Indian refiners will keep buying Russian crude oil after the U.S. 30‑day sanctions exemption expires on April 11, driven by ongoing supply uncertainty from West Asia and damaged regional infrastructure. West Asian shipments, which once supplied about half of India’s crude,...
Copper Claws Higher to Three-Week Peak as Investors Balance Iran with Chinese Demand
Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange rose to $12,845 a metric ton, the highest level since March 17, as investors weighed stronger demand in China against a fragile cease‑fire in the Iran conflict. The benchmark three‑month contract gained 0.6%...