Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Metal Movers: Copper’s Volatile New Landscape | Argus Media
The episode dissects copper’s recent volatility, tracing a 2025‑2026 price surge to a mix of tight physical supply, looming U.S. tariffs, and a wave of financial speculation that pushed LME prices above $14,000 per tonne. Experts explain how lower ore grades, mine shutdowns (notably Indonesia’s Grasberg), and strong demand expectations from the energy transition and AI drove fundamentals, while macro‑risk hedging and systematic flows amplified the rally. Since the peak, inventories have swelled, Chinese demand has softened, and the market has shifted back toward industrial fundamentals, though structural tightness and geopolitical risks keep prices elevated. The panel also examines the impact of U.S. tariff uncertainty, sulfur shortages from the Middle East conflict, and the potential for copper to behave like a quasi‑precious metal again.
Illinois Cash Rents and Leasing Expectations Through 2027
The Illinois Society of Professional Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers survey shows cash‑rent rates on Illinois farmland remained robust in 2026, with median rents of $375 per acre for excellent soils and $325 for good soils. While 2025 cash‑rent returns...
Tokenized Oil Futures Surge on Hyperliquid, Sparking New Crypto Trade Frenzy
Hyperliquid's decentralized exchange has propelled tokenized oil futures into the spotlight, making them the second‑most popular crypto product after Bitcoin. Traders can now bet on Brent and WTI prices 24/7, a development that blends commodity hedging with blockchain liquidity and...
Trump Administration’s Temporary Reprieve on Russian Oil Expires
The Treasury Department’s one‑month sanctions waiver that let Russia sell oil at sea expired on April 13, ending a temporary lifeline that helped keep global crude prices in check. The waiver, introduced amid a Middle‑East conflict that pushed oil above...
Fuel-Linked Price Rises Hit Ethiopia Ahead of Orthodox Easter
Ethiopia’s grocery market is feeling a sharp price shock as fuel shortages tied to Middle‑East conflict raise transport costs dramatically. Freight charges have surged from 70,000 birr ($450) to over 250,000 birr ($1,600), delaying shipments and spoiling perishable produce. Onion...
Aluminum Hits 4-Year High on Trump’s Blockade of Hormuz
Aluminum prices surged to a four‑year peak on the London Metal Exchange, reaching $3,570 a ton after President Donald Trump announced a blockade of Iranian ports. The spot‑cash spread widened to $95.50 a ton, the strongest backwardation since 2007, reflecting...
Chinese Miner Boosts Rare Earth Prices
China Northern Rare Earth Group, the world’s largest producer of light rare earths, announced a sharp increase in concentrate prices for the second quarter of 2026. The company lifted prices for 50% rare earth oxide concentrates, signaling tighter supply in...
Spring Cleaning. Ag Marketing Report 04/13/2026
The latest Ag Marketing Report shows a mixed week across commodities. Corn futures slipped 11.25 cents as planting lagged, while wheat fell 25‑35 cents amid a weaker condition rating. Soybeans rose 12.25 cents, with bean oil posting a record net‑long position, and cotton...
Oil Price Tops $100 a Barrel as US Prepares Strait of Hormuz Blockade; Goldman Sachs Posts Rise in Profits –...
Oil prices surged past $100 a barrel, with Brent trading at $102.31 as the United States prepared a naval blockade in the Gulf of Oman amid the Iran‑Israel conflict. Goldman Sachs reported a 48% jump in investment‑banking fees, posting Q1...
Pre-Markets Down as U.S. Sets Blockade at Hormuz
U.S. forces announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices sharply higher and casting a geopolitical shadow over the opening bell. WTI crude rose to $104 a barrel and Brent to $102, while major equity indexes opened...
India Rises as China Slows in Mineral Demand Shift
Vale is accelerating iron ore shipments to India as the country’s steel production is projected to double by 2030, signaling a pivot away from China’s once‑dominant demand base. Chinese steel output has plateaued around 1 billion tonnes, while India’s broader industrial...
Hormuz Crisis Triggers Localized, Bumpy Demand Destruction
Normally I talk about the two main types of demand destruction: Price elasticity (i.e., gasoline is really expensive so I'll drive less or buy an EV) vs Income elasticity (high oil prompted a financial crisis and I lost my job) But given how...
Iran War Fuels Energy Surge, Disrupts Global Mining Supply Chains
The 2026 US‑Israel war with Iran is driving up energy prices and creating logistics bottlenecks that jeopardize mining operations worldwide. Analysts say the conflict is exposing a structural weakness in the sector, from power‑intensive smelters to fragile transport routes, and...
Nigeria’s Economy Shocked by Middle East Conflict, IMF Flags $50B Aid Need
Nigeria’s finance minister Wale Edun declared the economy in shock as the Middle East war drives fuel prices up 50% and fuels capital outflows. The IMF warned that up to $50 bn in emergency financing may be required for balance‑of‑payments crises,...
Oil Prices Top $100 as FTSE Slides, Raising Jet‑Fuel Concerns for European Travel Stocks
Oil prices surged past $100 a barrel, prompting the FTSE 100 to slip and igniting fears of jet‑fuel shortages for European airports. Analysts warn the price spike could pressure airline margins and depress travel‑related stocks across the Euro market.
India Piles Up Export Tax on Diesel, Jet Fuel
India has more than doubled its export duty on diesel to 55.5 rupees (≈ $0.60) per litre, up from 21.5 rupees, and raised jet‑fuel export duty to 42 rupees (≈ $0.45) per litre from 29.5 rupees. The measures are intended to shore...
Brazil Raises Selic to 14.75% as Inflation Stalls at 4.1% in March
Brazil's central bank lifted the benchmark Selic rate to 14.75%, the highest level since 2006, after the IPCA consumer price index posted a 4.14% year‑over‑year increase in March 2026. The move targets stubborn services inflation and sharp spikes in transport...
Azerbaijan Boosts Gas Exports to Europe and Turkey Amid Rising Oil Prices
Azerbaijan increased its gas exports to Georgia by more than 14% and to Turkey by over 7% in the first quarter of 2026, while SOCAR reported higher oil and gas output. The surge comes as oil prices jump following the...
US‑Iran Talks Collapse Triggers European Market Drop, Threatening US Equity Sentiment
European markets are set to open sharply lower after US‑Iran peace negotiations fell apart and President Donald Trump ordered a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The geopolitical shock is expected to spill over into US equity markets, pressuring risk‑on...
Vietnam Cuts Fuel Taxes to Zero Through June, Aiming to Spur Demand Amid Global Oil Price Surge
Vietnam's National Assembly approved a resolution that removes all taxes on gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel from April 16 through June 30. The move, worth roughly 16.8% of fuel base prices, is designed to temper inflation and support growth as...
Middle East Tensions Trump Economic Data, Fueling Oil Surge
🚨 Markets on edge as US–Iran tensions escalate and risk of a Strait of Hormuz blockade sends oil higher and stocks lower. Here’s my take on it all: Middle East headlines now matter more than economic data. Higher gas prices could...
2026 Oil Demand Rises 1.4 Mb/D
"In 2026, global oil demand is forecast to grow by a healthy 1.4 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), driven almost entirely by demand from non-OECD regions, mainly China, India and Other Asia. On a quarterly basis, the global oil demand in 2026...
Wheat May Pay More Than Corn
U.S. farm income support payments under the ARC and PLC programs peaked in September 2025 but have been eroding, according to the latest April WASDE report. The new data indicate that wheat’s projected payments may now exceed those for corn,...
TMTB Morning Wrap
Futures slipped 6 basis points while crude jumped 8% after President Trump ordered a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, heightening geopolitical risk. Asian equity markets were mixed, with Japan, Korea and Hong Kong indices down and China’s Shanghai...
Trump Announces Hormuz Blockade, Oil Jumps 7%
Trump says the US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz begins at 10AM ET Oil already up 7% and we haven't even started. I'm watching response from China 🇨🇳 How much pain are you pricing in for stocks today? 👇 $CL $USO...
War in Iran: Fertilizer Sector Warns of Lasting Supply Risk
A two‑week U.S.–Iran ceasefire will temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital conduit for roughly 30% of global fertilizer trade and 20% of natural‑gas flows. The closure has already forced several Gulf fertilizer plants offline, tightening worldwide supply and...
Albanian Tomato Prices Rise to US$8.40 per Kg
Albania’s tomato market has seen a sharp price surge, with cherry tomatoes reaching $8.40 per kilogram and standard varieties climbing to $3.70‑$4.65 per kilogram. The increase follows flood‑induced damage to greenhouse areas, reduced planting acreage, and higher input costs, which...
A Devastating Loss
Oil markets have entered a period of extreme volatility, with prices swinging wildly after a Trump post on TruthSocial and rapid analyst revisions. Commodity traders have incurred billions in losses, while investment banks profit from heightened trading volumes. The chaos...
Winners and Losers of the Iran War: Ukraine and Russia
The Iran war has slashed Persian Gulf oil exports to roughly 10‑12 million barrels per day, creating a global supply shortfall and pushing crude prices above $100 a barrel. While Russia initially saw a windfall from higher prices, Ukrainian drone strikes...
FAO: Protracted Strait of Hormuz Crisis Could Turn Into Global Agrifood Catastrophe
The FAO warned that a prolonged crisis in the Strait of Hormuz could halt shipments of essential agricultural inputs, sparking a surge in food‑price inflation comparable to the COVID‑19 shock. About 20‑45% of global fertilizer and energy imports travel through...
CoBank Commodity Report Flags Rising Input Cost Pressures
CoBank’s latest Knowledge Exchange report warns that soaring diesel and fertilizer costs are outpacing gains in grain prices, tightening budgets for U.S. farmers and rural businesses. Diesel spikes could add roughly $2,000 per farmer, while fertilizer inputs have risen 20‑40%...
Crude Oil Joins 2026 ‘Up‑Too‑Much’ Risk List
Up-Too-Much Risks in 2026 - Crude May Follow Natural Gas, Silver Bitcoin in 2025, followed by silver, gold, copper and natural gas in 2026 -- and most importantly, crude oil -- can fall into an "up-too-much" category by year-end. There are...
Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief
Grain prices posted solid gains in overnight trade, with corn flash sales resuming despite modest volumes. Soybean contracts are firming as fresh buying interest emerges, while steady export demand and concerns over rising input costs underpin contract support. Wheat is...
Extreme Fear Fades as Markets Weather Hormuz Tension
Trump ordered a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz overnight. Oil surged 8% above $100. The UK refused to participate. France is forming its own mission to reopen the strait. And Bitcoin dropped... 1%. After 12 straight days...
WTI Opens Higher, Volatility Index Nudges up Modestly
Thought WTI US crude oil has gapped up on the open and the OVX volatility index has jogged higher; both are still fairly restrained... https://t.co/v7dH8pjKVt
Energy Prices Have Probably Peaked. What that Means for Stocks, According to Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson.
Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson says the Brent‑WTI spread has likely peaked, signaling the end of the recent oil price spike driven by the Iran‑Hormuz tension. The spread fell from a March high of $13.96 to a...
US Blockade Heightens Energy and Fertilizer Market Risks
U.S. Blockade Escalates Risks for Energy & Fertilizer, with implications for the commodity markets. #oatt #oott https://t.co/aGAVP1GhAe
Oil Prices Set to Stay High, Boost Energy Options Trade
JUST IN: Oil prices are poised to remain elevated longer, positioning an options trade on this energy stock for gains.
Cattle Poised for Major Correction Despite Bullish Hype
Cattle may have a sizable correction coming. The bullet proof to the upside mentality seems to have taken over full force.
EU Fossil Fuel Costs Soar €22 Billion Amid Conflict
Since the start of the Middle East conflict, the EU’s bill for fossil fuel imports has increased by over **€22 billion**, said Ursula von der Leyen 💰💰💰 https://t.co/driqaI4fOe
Oil Demand Collapse in SW & SE Asia Underestimated
We are probably underestimating the amount of oil demand destruction already ongoing in South-West and South-East Asia.
Oil Prices Surge to $150 Amid Middle East Crisis
Physical oil prices are at the sharp end of the Middle East supply crisis - almost $150 a barrel for some grades today based on the LSEG numbers. OPEC meanwhile sees a relatively small hit to oil demand from the ongoing...
Iran Faces Imminent Well Shutdowns, Negotiations Uncertain
Looking at the limited empty oil tankers inside the Persian Gulf, plus Tehran’s onshore storage, Iran will need to shut in wells in 10-15 days (the same process its neighbours faced 5-6 weeks ago). Would that prompt Iran to change...
OPEC Projects 2026‑27 Production Growth in Key Nations
🔹OPEC's view of production growth in selected countries in 2026 and 2027. 🔹What do you think? What do you agree with and what you do not? Why? https://t.co/QAin921hCr https://t.co/WK2gAcAKWe
Australia Faces Diesel Shortage After Hormuz Crisis
Australia is uniquely vulnerable to disruptions in diesel supply,leading to a real diesel Armada heading there in the wake of the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. Chartbook Top Links of the day just dropped: https://t.co/phVWZTM4Em
Saudi Crude Shipments to China to Halve Amid War
Saudi Arabia’s crude sales to top importer China are set to halve next month as the war in the Middle East upends flows and lifts prices, according to traders familiar with the matter https://t.co/P8mgp5is3N
Nat Gas Enters Extended Seasonal Trading Window
Start of a long Seasonal window for nat gas as of today (courtesy Moore Research Center). https://t.co/mYPvrsOkle
Pump Prices Up 50
BofA: Price at the pump is up 50% from January low Energy 2026 EPS growth revised up by >25ppt since the Iran conflict began, but minimal cuts to consumer sectors so far https://t.co/eQAC20Kj0o
Energy Markets Stay Calm Amid Third Gulf War Lull
We're in the "no-fighting, no-peace, and no-oil" phase of the Third Gulf War. The energy market remains incredibly sanguine: despite Monday's rally, oil and European natural gas prices are below a week ago.
Copper’s 2026 Rally Threatened by Equity Market Decline
Copper's Big Green Candle Risks Turning Red in 2026 The last three down years for copper (2015, 2018, 2022) coincided with drops in the US stock market, suggesting a dependency on a rising equity tide in 2026. Full report on the...