Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
HSBC CEO Georges Elhedery Says Middle‑East War Is Eroding Global Client Confidence
HSBC chief executive Georges Elhedery told Bloomberg that the ongoing Middle‑East conflict is denting client confidence across markets. The warning came as HSBC’s London‑listed shares fell 1.1% amid broader risk‑off trading, highlighting the immediate impact on the bank’s valuation.
Oil Prices Climb as US Prepares Hormuz Blockade, Brent Near $98.40
Brent crude futures jumped back to $98.40 a barrel after a brief dip, driven by the United States’ decision to enforce a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The move has tightened tanker traffic, lifted oil prices and sent...
IEA Cuts Oil Outlook on ‘Largest Disruption in History’
The International Energy Agency slashed its 2026 oil demand forecast by 730,000 barrels per day, citing the sharpest demand drop since the Covid‑19 pandemic. Conflict after the US and Israel attacked Iran has crippled Middle‑East energy infrastructure and effectively closed...
Cocoa Price Crash Spurs Hopes for Demand Recovery, Cheaper Candy
Cocoa futures have plunged more than 70% from their 2024 record, creating a deep price crash. The steep decline follows a 2024 rally that triggered demand destruction and left many manufacturers with costly inventories. With a robust harvest and a...
Oil Prices Edge Lower On Hopes Of Potential US-Iran Peace Deal
Oil prices slipped on Tuesday as renewed hopes of a U.S.–Iran peace deal lifted market sentiment. Brent June futures fell more than 1% to $98.31 a barrel and WTI May contracts dropped 2.2% to $96.93. President Donald Trump said the...
IMF/WB Summit Likely Triggers Further Oil Price Drop
The IMF/WB meetings are happening this week in DC. My best guess is that they'll be a catalyst for oil prices to fall further. A lot of people are coming to DC from across the world and will realize the...
Oil Demand to Fall at Fastest Pace Since Covid: IEA
The International Energy Agency (IEA) says global oil demand will contract at the fastest rate since the COVID‑19 pandemic, driven by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a 10.1 mn b/d supply loss in March. The agency projects demand...
India’s Soyabean Imports Surge to 3.09 Lakh Tonnes During Oct-Mar 2025-26 Oil Year
India’s soybean imports have surged to 3.09 lakh tonnes (≈309,000 t) in the Oct‑Mar 2025‑26 oil year, up sharply from just 0.02 lakh tonnes a year earlier. The rise reflects tighter domestic supply, with projected output falling to 110.26 lakh tonnes (≈11.0 Mt), a 14%...
IEA Cuts Oil Demand, Supply Outlook Amid Iran War
The International Energy Agency (IEA) sharply revised its outlook, now expecting global oil demand to fall by 80,000 barrels per day in 2026, down from a previously projected 640,000‑bpd increase. It also cut the 2026 supply forecast by 1.5 million bpd, reversing...
The Spike in Diesel Prices Is Quietly Costing You Billions
Diesel prices have surged 54% since the Iran‑Israel conflict began on Feb. 28, outpacing gasoline’s 38% rise and adding roughly $9.4 billion in extra costs for U.S. households—about half of the $19 billion total fuel burden. The spike stems from the Strait of...
IEA Predicts Global Oil Demand Decline in 2026
IEA: “Global oil demand is expected to fall by 80,000 barrels per day year-on-year in 2026, revised down from growth of 640,000 barrels per day seen in last month’s report. The pace of decline will subside in our base case...
Fuel Price Freeze: ₹18/Litre Loss on Petrol, ₹35 on Diesel
State‑owned Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum have kept retail petrol and diesel prices frozen since April 2022, despite global crude oil swinging from over $100 to $120 per barrel. The freeze translates to losses of about ₹18 ($0.22) per...
AUDIO: The Impact of International Conflict on the World’s Oil Pipeline
The episode examines how simultaneous disruptions at three key maritime chokepoints—the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea/Suez Canal corridor, and the Panama Canal—are creating a system‑wide shock to global oil and LNG shipping. The guest from the Center for Ports...
Prolonged Hormuz Crisis Could Trigger Agrifood Catastrophe, UN Warns
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization warned that a prolonged crisis in the Strait of Hormuz could spark a global agrifood catastrophe. Disruptions to fertilizer and energy exports would drive up food prices and compress crop yields. FAO chief...
The Hormuz Crisis and the Oil Market: Spot Vs. Futures – A Straightforward Classroom Explanation
The article uses an Econ‑101 lens to explain why physical (spot) oil prices surged while futures lagged during the recent Hormuz Strait crisis. It attributes the spot spike to immediate shipping disruptions and highlights the divergence as a symptom of...
Most of Wall Street Points to High Oil Prices as the Driver of Inflation. A Maverick Johns Hopkins Economist Says...
Wall Street analysts quickly blamed the March 3.3% year‑over‑year CPI rise on soaring oil prices after Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz. Johns Hopkins economist Steve Hanke pushed back, arguing that the inflation surge mirrors a two‑year‑old expansion in the...
Why Indonesia’s Prabowo Is in Russia – and What He Needs From Putin
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto flew to Moscow seeking cheap Russian crude as global oil prices surge following the U.S. and Israel’s war on Iran and a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 25% of seaborne oil....
Brits to Get Paid to Use Electricity
British households and factories will receive payments to increase electricity consumption during periods of excess renewable generation, a move aimed at soaking up surplus power and easing grid strain. The scheme introduces market‑based demand flexibility, helping to curb curtailment of...
Weekly Kill: Further Slides in Direct Consignment Rates, as Congestion Starts to Appear in Kill Rosters
Direct‑consignment cattle rates across eastern and southern Australia slipped another 5–20 cents per kilogram this week, driven by a mix of supply‑side factors and rising fuel and material costs. Processors in Queensland are already booking kill slots for May, while southern...
Iran Oil Hoard at Sea Shields China’s Refiners From US Blockade
A stockpile of about 38 million barrels of Iranian crude sits on tankers in Asia, with over a third anchored near China’s Yellow Sea. Chinese independent refiners—known as “teapots”—have built near‑record on‑shore inventories in Shandong, giving them roughly two‑and‑a‑half months of...
Blockade Risks Crippling Global Oil System, Not Just Iran
The blockade is meant to break Iran—but it may break the system first, writes @TheMichaelEvery & @BenPicton1 Iran's storage fills quickly—leading to well shut-ins & potential permanent capacity loss Removing ~2 mb/d hits an already stressed system and adds to what...
Indonesian Wheat Imports on the Rise
Indonesia’s wheat imports are set to climb to 13.2 million tonnes in the 2025‑26 marketing year, up from 10.5 Mt last season, making it the world’s largest wheat‑importer according to the USDA. The surge is driven by stronger middle‑class demand, expanding flour‑based...
USO Call Spread Nets 4.7% Return as Oil Futures Surge 5.5%
Traders executed a large call spread on USO that delivered a 4.7% gain after the fund rose 5.56% on the back of a 5.5% jump in oil futures. The trade’s success underscores how option‑skew signals can guide tactical bets in...
Ex‑Rokos and Brevan Howard Veteran Launches $359 Million Commodities Hedge Fund
Luke Sadrian, a former partner at Rokos Capital Management and Brevan Howard, has rolled out the Fulcrum Commodities Fund, a $359 million vehicle that posted a 30.5% return since its October 2025 launch. The fund’s early performance and rising allocator interest...
EU Recycled Plastic Premiums Hit Record, Saving Up to 50% on Polyolefins
European recyclers are seeing unprecedented price premiums over virgin polymers, with spot‑market savings of more than 50% for low‑density polyethylenes and €300/tonne (≈$327) for rPET. The rally reflects tight virgin feedstock supplies caused by Middle‑East export disruptions and rising production...
Asian Markets Slip as Oil Surges Past $100 and Middle East Tensions Rise
Asian stock markets traded lower on Monday after oil prices topped $100 a barrel and U.S. President Donald Trump warned of a naval blockade of Iranian ports. The Nikkei 225 slipped below 56,400, the S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.48%, and regional...
Asia Air Travel Faces Turbulence as Iran War Exposes Jet Fuel Vulnerability
Jet fuel prices in the Asia‑Pacific have spiked to roughly $198 a barrel, about twice pre‑war levels, after the United States began restricting shipments through the Strait of Hormuz following stalled Iran peace talks. The surge is forcing airlines across...
Hormuz Blockade Hits Malaysian SMEs With Triple Cost Surge
The Hormuz blockade is NOT a Middle East story for Malaysian SMEs. It’s an input cost problem on top of one you’re already managing. Most SME supply chains price raw materials in USD. When oil spikes, freight follows. When global risk...
What My Proprietary Indicator Says About Silver
The author revisits his Synthetic Silver Price Index (SSPI), a proprietary tool built from gold and copper data, to gauge silver's trajectory. The SSPI’s 200‑day moving average remains upward‑sloping, indicating an ongoing uptrend despite a two‑month pullback. Both the SSPI...
Iran Conflict Boosts Copper Demand Amid Chile Production Dip
Chile — the Saudi Arabia of copper — is already seeing production roll over before any 2nd-order war effects. The implications of the Iran conflict for the mining industry are being underappreciated, despite the severity of the situation. This dynamic is...
Aluminum Peaks at Four-Year High Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Aluminum hit a new four-year high as Middle East tensions, higher oil prices, and supply fears lifted metals. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/aluminum-four-year-high-signals-rising.html
Foreign Firms Earn 53‑fold Profit on Zimbabwe Lithium, Sparking Controversy
Multinational miners are making up to $20,000 per tonne from Zimbabwe lithium exports, a 53‑fold markup over the $370 production cost. The windfall has ignited a dispute between foreign firms, the Zimbabwean government and local workers over revenue sharing and...
European Blue‑Chip Indexes Drop Over 1% as Oil Surges Past $100 Amid Iran Conflict
European blue‑chip markets slid sharply on Monday, with the FTSE 100 down 0.4%, Germany's DAX off 1% and France's CAC 40 nearly 0.9%, as oil prices surged above $100 a barrel following a U.S. blockade announcement tied to the Iran...
Hormuz Closure Could Add 0.8% Core Inflation
Economists at the Dallas Fed try to model the effects on PCE inflation of a one-, two-, or three-quarter disruption of oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz The DSGE model projects WTI prices peaking at $110, $132, or $167 per...
US Blockade Hits India as Russian Oil Waiver Ends
JUST IN: US blockade in the Strait of Hormuz affects India as the Russian oil purchase waiver expires, escalating energy supply concerns.
EU Calls for Coordinated Energy Pricing as Wholesale Costs Surge
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a push for coordinated energy pricing across the bloc as wholesale fossil‑fuel costs spike following the Iran war. The call targets a unified response to soaring prices that threaten billions of euros...
Global Oil Production Plunges 10.1 Million Bpd in March
JUST IN: Global oil output dropped 10.1 million barrels per day to 97 million in March, one of the biggest monthly declines ever.
Oil Prices Dip as US Blocks Iranian Ports
JUST IN: Oil prices are falling as the US starts blocking Iranian ports, amid growing talk of negotiations.
ICE Canola Futures Jump $5‑$6 per Tonne on Strong Demand and Rising Veg‑Oil Prices
ICE canola futures surged $5‑$6 per tonne amid robust demand and climbing vegetable‑oil and energy markets. The rally reflects tighter global veg‑oil supplies, higher freight costs and a broader grain market rebound, raising concerns for Canadian growers and downstream food...
Europe Must Match Asian Prices to Secure LNG
If Europeans want to avoid gas shortages, they need to pay competitive prices — or their LNG shipments will keep getting diverted to the highest bidder in Asia. Map from @Kpler https://t.co/BUf2kkzmNN
2026 Super‑El
Let me clarify: - Upstream ops benefit from higher CPO price initially - In severe El Niños, lower output counteract the positive effect from higher CPO prices - Malaysia will be less impacted by droughts than Indonesia - The B50 fuel mandate in...
Nikkei Falls 0.7% as Oil Prices Surge Amid Middle‑East Tensions
Japan's Nikkei 225 slipped 421 points, or 0.7%, as crude oil prices jumped and geopolitical risk from the Middle East intensified. The decline pulled down other Asian equities, while a few stocks such as Nitto Boseki rallied more than 5%.
Hormuz Tensions Shift Oil Prices: Spot vs Futures
The Hormuz Crisis and the Oil Market: Spot vs. Futures – A Straightforward Classroom Explanation https://t.co/T7wjTKmYFV
1979 Oil Demand Peak Decoupled Growth From Fossils, Not Power
NEW ANALYSIS: @ember_energy just dropped new report on how the 1970s energy crises decoupled economic growth from fossil fuels but not from electricity. Global oil demand per capita peaked in 1979 and has never recovered. Makes for a fascinating reading. https://t.co/Ehd4UR5bJl https://t.co/Z1XLOJcrkK
The Hours the Market Wants Back: Free Daytime Power, or a Fix for Solar and Wind Curtailment?
The Australian NEM’s 11 am‑2 pm window is plagued by frequent negative prices, with 32.7% of intervals showing zero or below‑market rates over the past year. This oversupply has led to 7.89 TWh of renewable curtailment, 82% of which occurs during those negative‑price...
Refinery Cuts Threaten Buffers, Triggering Oil Supply Cliff
The system isn’t adjusting—it’s depleting. Inventories are masking the shock while demand is being forced lower, writes @HFI_Research If refinery cuts jump to ~8 mbd, the buffers won’t last. The cliff is approaching #Oil #Energy #Geopolitics
Dated vs Prompt Brent Futures Spread Widening
Dated Brent crude vs prompt Brent futures Normally pretty tight, but not right now. Mind the gap. https://t.co/sTrTsmJpQs
War Has Sanctioned Russian LNG Booming
Russia’s Novatek has begun offering cargoes from its Arctic LNG 2 project to buyers in South Asia, despite the facility being subject to U.S., EU and UK sanctions. The shipments are priced at discounts of up to 40 % versus current spot‑market...
Six Weeks to No Fuel at All
The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut since late February, and the last tanker that cleared the waterway on February 28 is expected to arrive around April 20, ending the flow of pre‑closure oil stocks. Once those inventories are exhausted, global...
Oil Prices Have Higher to Go, IEA Warns
The International Energy Agency warned that current oil prices do not yet reflect the depth of the supply shock caused by the Iran‑Israel war, which has taken roughly 13 million barrels per day offline and damaged over 80 facilities. Brent and...