Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
War Has Sanctioned Russian LNG Booming
Russia’s Novatek has begun offering cargoes from its Arctic LNG 2 project to buyers in South Asia, despite the facility being subject to U.S., EU and UK sanctions. The shipments are priced at discounts of up to 40 % versus current spot‑market rates, which have recently spiked. The price gap reflects heightened demand after the United States and Israel launched a war against Iran, tightening global LNG supplies. Analysts see the move as a way for Russia to monetize its Arctic output while sanctions limit other revenue streams.
Six Weeks to No Fuel at All
The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut since late February, and the last tanker that cleared the waterway on February 28 is expected to arrive around April 20, ending the flow of pre‑closure oil stocks. Once those inventories are exhausted, global...
Oil Prices Have Higher to Go, IEA Warns
The International Energy Agency warned that current oil prices do not yet reflect the depth of the supply shock caused by the Iran‑Israel war, which has taken roughly 13 million barrels per day offline and damaged over 80 facilities. Brent and...
Executives View $100 Oil as Temporary Peak, Not Baseline
Most of the America oil & gas executives at conference last week I spoke with shrugged the current price as a short term development, as the market always finds a way. They spoke like it was almost a distraction to...
Fuel Price Rolled Back by as Much as P23/L
The Philippines' Department of Energy ordered a one‑time fuel price rollback that took effect on April 14, slashing diesel by up to P23 per liter (about $0.42) and trimming gasoline and kerosene by P4.43 ($0.08) and P8.50 ($0.15) respectively. Shell...
IEA Chief Warns of Tougher Month for Energy Markets
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that April will be tougher for global energy markets as the Middle East war continues to choke supply. No oil cargoes have been loaded from the region this month, and more than 80 energy facilities...
Corn Dominates Argentina Export Registrations
Corn accounted for 60% of Argentina's export registrations in the week to April 11, with 1.95 million metric tonnes registered, more than double the same week last year. Total crop registrations rose 20% year‑over‑year to 3.25 million tonnes, driven primarily by corn. Export...
US Fertilizer Market Faces Increasing Scrutiny
U.S. phosphate exports surged in Q1 2024, tightening domestic supplies as global fertilizer trade is disrupted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Prices have climbed to the highest levels since 2022, prompting criticism from President Donald Trump and...
Oil Drops as US and Iran Weigh More Talks With Blockade in Place
Oil prices slipped on Tuesday as Brent hovered around $97 a barrel and WTI near $95, after Washington announced a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The move follows a China‑linked tanker that briefly entered the strait, tested the...
Gold’s Surge Puts Margins Under the Spotlight
Gold prices jumped 67% in 2025, driving jewellery sales value up to $172 bn while volume fell 18% to 1,542 tonnes. Luxury houses with strong brand equity, such as Richemont and Cartier, saw sales growth, whereas mass‑market jewellers, whose costs are tied...
Brazil's Mato Grosso 2025-26 Soy Sales Ahead on Year
Brazil's Mato Grosso state reported that 63.3% of the 2025‑26 soybean crop had been sold by March, outpacing the same period last year but lagging the five‑year average. Soy sales rose 6.7 percentage points from February, while the 2026‑27 soy...
SILVER IS THE TRIPLE-IDENTITY ASSET: China's $48T M2 Explosion, Countries Hoarding Silver, the Export Ban, the Structural Deficit, & Why...
China’s broad money supply (M2) has surged past $48 trillion, dwarfing the combined US and EU totals, and is expected to add $4.5 trillion in 2025 alone. The expansion is prompting both the state and citizens to hoard hard assets, especially silver,...
CHINA TO BAN SULFURIC ACID EXPORTS: Copper and Uranium Mining Impacted, Bullish and Bearish Catalyst, Who Loses, & This Mining...
China announced it will halt exports of byproduct sulfuric acid starting in May 2026. The acid is a core reagent for heap‑leaching copper and uranium ores, so the ban threatens to raise input costs and curb output in mining hubs...
Why Oil Can Be Both Surplus and Shortage
Oil Surplus Meets Oil Shortage: What the Heck is Going On? How can the world have too much oil—and not enough at the same time? Energy economist Ed Hirs explains. #oilandgas #iranwar #uspoli #cdnpoli https://youtu.be/u24Q9ESql1A
Silver Breakout Confirms Ongoing Bull Market
Silver broke out from a five-decade-old pattern in November, signaling that a powerful bull market is underway, and that is still true despite the recent correction.
Iran Threatens Bab Al‑Mandeb If U.S. Blocks Hormuz, Escalating Red Sea Shipping Risk
Iran warned on Sunday that it will expand attacks to the Bab al‑Mandeb strait if Washington proceeds with a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The threat, issued amid a fragile cease‑fire and U.S. red‑line demands on Iran’s nuclear...
Oil Breaches $100 a Barrel, Sending Latin American Currencies Tumbling
Crude oil surged past $100 a barrel after U.S.–Iran talks collapsed, lifting prices about 6% and prompting a sharp sell‑off in Brazil’s real and Mexico’s peso. Colombia’s peso held steadier, and Peru’s sol edged higher, underscoring how oil spikes create...
USD/CAD Stalls Near 1.3840 as Oil Spikes and Fed Hawkishness Offset Each Other
USD/CAD traded around 1.3840 on Monday, caught between a near‑7% jump in WTI crude that supports the Canadian dollar and persistent expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve that buoy the U.S. dollar. The tug‑of‑war left the pair essentially flat...
Maine Pushes Renewable Energy Exports to Cut Regional Power Costs
Maine officials are moving to sell wind‑generated electricity to neighboring New England states, leveraging the region’s integrated grid. The plan could save $25‑$35 million a year and sustain more than 16,000 clean‑energy jobs in the state.
OPEC Says Middle East Oil Output Plummets 27% in March Amid Iran Conflict
OPEC announced that Middle East crude production fell 27% in March, dropping from 28.7 million to 20.8 million barrels per day. The plunge, driven by Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait, follows U.S. and Israeli strikes that effectively shut the Strait...
WTI Holds $88 Support After 22% Intraday Drop
WTI crude dropped 22% peak to trough in a single session after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire announcement, but held $88.13 support on a closing basis. Still up +66.57% YTD. RSI is printing a clear bearish divergence. The $88 level is key. Hold...
Hormuz Crisis Slashes OPEC Output, Sparks Global Energy Turmoil
🎡The Hormuz Crisis Reduces OPEC Production by 7.9 mb/d 🎡Kazakhstan's Crude Production Recovers 🎡EU Dependence on Russian Gas to Increase 🎡Iran War, Hormuz & Petrodollar 🎡US Blockade of the Blockade 🎡Panic and Oil Hoarding 🎡Saudi Oil to China: Watch Chinese Inventories 🎡India to Get Iranian Oil, But...
Daily Energy Report
OPEC left its global oil supply and demand forecasts unchanged despite the Iran war’s disruptive impact. The organization projects crude demand to reach 106.53 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2026 and 107.87 mb/d in 2027, with a softer second‑quarter offset by...
IEA Prepared for Follow-Up Oil Release: Birol
The International Energy Agency (IEA) says it stands ready to coordinate another strategic oil release if market conditions demand, following a record emergency release that grew to 426 million barrels after the Israel‑Iran conflict began. IEA members hold about 1.25 billion barrels...
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
Grains opened the week higher, led by wheat gains after rain fell across the Southern Plains. Reduced global grain production forecasts from U.S. competitors and a strong energy complex further buoyed prices. Soybeans showed mixed movement, with the fourth day...
Prolonged Hormuz Strait Closure Would Have ‘Profound’ Impact on Mining: Friedland – by Frederic Tomesco (Northern Miner – April 13,...
Ivanhoe Mines co‑chairman Robert Friedland warned that a prolonged shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz would sharply tighten global sulfur markets, cutting roughly half of the seaborne sulfur supply. With about 20% of worldwide copper production dependent on sulfuric‑acid leaching,...
Forty Years After Chernobyl, Uranium Market Rebounds but Fragility Persists – by Aurel Sèdjro Houenou (Ecofin Agency – April 12,...
Forty years after the Chernobyl disaster, the uranium market has rebounded, with spot prices climbing to $101 per pound in early 2026. The surge reflects renewed global interest in civil nuclear power as part of the broader energy transition. Higher...
OPEC+ Data Deck (April 2026)
The latest OPEC+ Data Deck reveals a March production drop of 7,587 kbpd, bringing quota‑participating output to 28,312 kbpd – the second‑largest monthly decline on record and the lowest level for the expanded group since the 1990 Desert Storm period. The fall...
Global Physical Oil Supply Picture Is Dire - And Getting Worse
Physical oil is now trading at $149 per barrel for North Sea Forties, a stark contrast to futures contracts. The Iran‑Israel conflict and a U.S. blockade have pushed crude loss to 15 million barrels per day, pulling global stockpiles down by...
Fed's Goolsbee: Oil Futures Show This Will Be a Short-Run Problem (Why He's Wrong)
Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee argued that the steeply backwardated oil futures curve proves the current price spike is a short‑run issue. The article counters that backwardation reflects immediate physical scarcity and a high convenience yield, not a forecast of...
IEA Anticipates Additional SPR Releases Amid Gulf Shutdowns
IEA ready for further SPR releases on top of the record 400 million barrels already announced. Even if this crisis ends by the end of the month the market is looking at upwards of a BILLION barrels unproduced given Gulf shut-ins. Won't...
U.S. Oil Blockade Likely Raises Exports and Pump Prices
U.S. oil blockade is set to boost American exports and prices at the Pump https://t.co/imnRBifyQr
War-Driven Fuel Costs Add New Twist to Trans-Pacific Service Contract Talks
The war in Iran has caused bunker fuel prices to double across key global hubs, prompting container lines to shift refueling operations to Europe as Singapore’s supply tightens. This surge in fuel costs is being passed to shippers through higher...
Physical Asian Oil Surge Forces Paper Prices Higher
My take @Fortune on oil prices: "Physical oil in Asian markets spiked past $150 a barrel; the paper market never climbed that high… The paper price will be forced to converge with the physical - and it has nowhere to go...
Global Energy Shock Still Unreflected in Prices
I agree with my friend and renowned oil expert Javier Blas. The GLOBAL ENERGY SHOCK has yet to be priced in. https://t.co/jGrLu4xyby
Copper Outlook Strengthens as Long-Term Assumptions Climb
Long‑term copper price assumptions in mining feasibility studies have jumped about 60% since 2020, moving from roughly $3.00 per pound to an average of $4.80 per pound in early 2026. Even after stripping inflation, the real assumptions are about 28%...
Henry Hub Natural Gas Hits Lowest Level Since Oct 2024
Henry Hub #natgas - that's the lowest weekly price back to Oct 2024 $UNG $NG_F https://t.co/KqYZQ2PcAQ
US Soybeans Plant Faster
🇺🇸U.S. soybeans are 6% planted, above expectations and historically quick. Corn is 5% planted, slightly ahead of last year. Winter wheat conditions dropped another point this week. https://t.co/Yy2wWIzMud
ADG 4/13: Squeeze Box
New research shows consumer‑grade AI chatbots struggle with medical diagnosis when patient information is sparse, often converging on a single answer too quickly. Meanwhile, Intel’s stock jumped 58% in early April, the best nine‑day rally ever, after announcing a $14.2 billion...
WTI Backwardation Stays Massive at $6.06 per Barrel
The backwardation in US WTI crude futures (active nearby - second contract) is +$6.06... Was as high as +$16.50, but this is still enormous. Blue is the OVX oil volatility index: https://t.co/mGUKpZpzet
Crude Oil Won’t Reach Prewar Prices Until Late 2027
JUST IN: Analysts expect crude oil prices may not return to prewar levels until late 2027
End of Open Consultation on Methodology for Saudi Arabia Domestic Rebar Price Assessment
Fastmarkets announced the closure of its open consultation on the methodology for the Saudi Arabia domestic rebar price (MB-STE-0909). The consultation, which ran until April 6, sought to ensure the pricing process complies with IOSCO principles for Price Reporting Agencies....
Higher Oil Prices Need Weak Labor Market to Spare Inflation
We have had elevated oil prices before without much impact on core inflation, but back in 2011-2014, the labor market was softer, and wage growth was much lower with lower nominal growth https://t.co/sgut5B2XBG
Miner Rally Mirrors Early 1970s Bull Market
Miners haven’t truly broken out yet... In this new presentation from Thoughtful Money, I walk through why today’s setup resembles the early 1970s bull market. If you’re wondering whether this rally is getting tired—or just getting started, watch here: https://t.co/WVeReceJL2
Pro Farmer Podcast | Fertilizer Crisis Fallout
The Pro Farmer Podcast episode released on April 13, 2026 examines the fallout from the global fertilizer crisis, highlighting sharp supply constraints and rising input costs. Host Bill and Hillari explore how the shortage is slashing yields for nitrogen‑intensive crops, while guest...
US Oil Shift Doubles Asia Shipping Distance, Cuts Supply
Replacing Persian Gulf supply with US barrels doubles shipping distances to Asia This effectively cuts deliverable supply due to tanker availability. https://t.co/MorwvZn1VE
OPEC+ Crude Output Hits Record Low Since 1990
OPEC+ crude production fell to an all-time low for the expanded producer group in March. And for OG OPEC, its the lowest recorded crude production since Desert Storm in 1990. https://t.co/SUrjKb3ZLD
Fed Holds Policy Rate at 3.5%-3.75% as Inflation Stays Near 3.3% Amid Oil Shock
The Federal Reserve kept its target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5%‑3.75% after March CPI showed a 3.3% year‑over‑year increase. Traders now see a 97% chance of another hold at the April 28 meeting, while energy‑price volatility from...
Spreads Reveal Risk Premium Amid Brent Rally
Everyone’s chasing flat price. That’s the crowded trade but spreads tell the truth, notes @tchiling Brent rallied on blockade headlines, but structure broke last week and is only partially recovering. This is risk premium, not full-blown tightness—yet. #Oil #Energy #Trading #Brent...
Mexico's Precious Metals Export Boom Valued at $19.1 Billion in 2026
Mexico's precious‑metal market is projected to reach $19.1 billion in 2026, up from $18.4 billion in 2025, as Newmont, Barrick Gold and Anglo American expand operations. The sector foresees a $6.5 billion incremental opportunity through 2036, reshaping global supply chains.