Know What's Happening in Commodities
Know What's Happening in Commodities
Ireland launches €250M relief package as heating oil prices double
Heating oil prices in Ireland surged from about $545 to over $1,090 per fill within a month amid the Middle East conflict. The government responded with a €250 million ($273 million) relief package that includes excise cuts and a diesel rebate, though experts say a national energy‑security strategy is still lacking.
Also developing:
By the numbers: Oil majors acquire $164M of Alaska oil leases
Chile’s mining ministry is set to file five new lithium contracts in March, just days before President Gabriel Boric departs office, as part of a push to accelerate the 2023 national lithium strategy. The contracts target the Salar de Ascotán, Quillagua Sur, Hilaricos, Salar de Piedra Parada and Salar de Agua Amarga, while two direct‑award projects, Ollagüe and Laguna Verde, move forward separately. Regulators have halted the Quillagua Norte and Quillagua Este applications over legal deficiencies, highlighting a dispute over the Special Lithium Operation Contract (CEOL) process. The government aims to lift annual output from 280,000 tonnes in 2024 to roughly 430,000 tonnes by 2034, seeking to reclaim its position as the world’s top lithium producer.
And for what it's worth, I even think the #soybeans are over extended here. Funds defended right at the upper keltner band yesterday, but wouldn't take much of a break to get below it leading to a possible break....
Peak Gas, Crude Risks Elevated in 2026; Energy Price Trend Down - Absent a supply shock from potential hostilities with Iran, crude oil may be more likely to peak in 1Q on the back of natural gas. Predominant downward price...
Ukraine’s agriculture and steel sectors remain economic pillars despite war‑driven disruptions, contributing roughly 7‑8% and 5.7‑7.2% of GDP respectively. Grain exports have fallen to their lowest level since the invasion, while sunflower crushing is 9% below last year and 26%...
Are Soybeans Getting Too Hot Near $11.70? Runaway Brazilian soybean production is a top pressure factor for prices, and $11.70 a bushel in 2026 may be too high. My graphic shows the US-traded oilseed bumping up against the 2025 peak, at...
China’s lithium carbonate futures surged after Zimbabwe suspended all raw mineral and lithium concentrate exports. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange contract jumped 6.07% to 178,020 yuan, having peaked above 9% earlier in the session. Zimbabwe, the continent’s top lithium producer, shipped...
Fastmarkets released five iron‑ore Value‑In‑Use (VIU) indices on February 26, a day later than scheduled. The indices include 61% Fe and 65% Fe fines, as well as fines measured for silicon, alumina and phosphorus, all quoted cfr Qingdao in dollars per dry...
Wood Mackenzie warns that the world’s 30 largest oil and gas firms must add roughly 22 million barrels of oil‑equivalent per day by 2040 to preserve their share of global demand. Current output of about 50 mbd is projected to fall nearly...
President Félix Tshisekedi announced a comprehensive reform of the Democratic Republic of the Congo's gold sector, targeting the massive revenue loss from smuggling and informal trade. The plan, presented at a Council of Ministers meeting on 20 February 2026, seeks...
China’s decades‑long dominance of rare‑earth processing is being challenged as the United States and allies pour over $8.5 billion into reshaping the supply chain. REAlloys Inc. has become the only North‑American company that can convert rare‑earth concentrates into metals and alloys,...
U.S. CRUDE OILinventories surged by 16 million barrels over the seven days ending on February 20, the largest one-week increase for three years. The increase was concentrated at refineries and tank farms along the Gulf Coast where stocks rose by...
The article uses Salomey’s experience in Ghana to illustrate a systemic cash‑flow squeeze at the farmgate of the cocoa trade. Farmers deliver beans, yet payments are delayed because the state‑run marketing board routes sales through a long, opaque export chain....
India is expected to experience one of its warmest Marches on record, with temperatures projected up to 7 °C above normal in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and parts of Madhya Pradesh. These states produce more than 80 % of the nation’s...
Golden Agri-Resources reported a record FY 2025 revenue of US$12.95 billion, up 19% year‑on‑year, and EBITDA of US$1.26 billion, a 14% increase, maintaining a 9.7% margin. Net profit rose 10% to US$400 million despite a sharp drop in foreign‑exchange gains. The Board proposed...
The Zimbabwe export ban seems to be due to transfer pricing, ie producers understating grade/value of exports. Similar to what we saw from the Chinese company that operated Bald Hill in Australia a few years ago. On my calcs, average Zimbabwe...
In this episode, Argus Brazil editor Renata Cardarelli and fertilizer specialist Gisele Augusto review how Brazil and the Southern Cone fertilizer markets have evolved a month after the Fertilizer Latino-Americano (FLA) conference. They note a sharp slowdown in RIA deals,...
The 2026 Year of the Fire Horse marks the 60th anniversary of the world’s first VLCC, Idemitsu Maru, and has sparked a surge in supertanker charter rates, with spot prices topping $200,000 per day and rumors of a one‑year deal...
Thai private‑sector importer Gulf Energy announced a new tender for two additional April LNG cargoes, targeting delivery windows of 22‑23 April and 25‑26 April. The offers are to be priced against the northeast Asian spot LNG index, with the tender closing on...
Venture capitalist Lucas Birdsall highlights how surging demand for copper and silver—driven by electric vehicles, renewable energy and electronics—is outpacing production capacity. S&P Global projects copper consumption could rise to 42 million metric tons by 2040, while silver’s photovoltaic share sits...
South Africa’s Competition Commission has raided four scrap‑metal firms amid a price‑fixing investigation, prompting the Metals Recyclers Association (MRA) to call for a full, independent inquiry into the sector’s policy framework. The MRA argues that the Price Preference System, export...
Ecuador plans a Mirador copper mine contract extension in 1H 2026 to unlock Mirador Norte expansion. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/02/mirador-copper-mine-contract-extension.html
The World Bank’s January 2026 Global Economic Prospects report on GOLD PRICES: "Strong investor demand, continued central bank purchases, and safe-haven inflows...are expected to sustain markedly high gold prices over the next two years..." BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/fGfk9ZNBcn
Avino Silver released its 2026 guidance, targeting 2.5 million ounces at a $26 per ounce all‑in sustaining cost (AISC), a figure that falls short of analyst expectations but signals continued organic production growth. Discovery Silver disclosed a robust $410 million cash balance,...
US farmers and soybeans exporters not to get more China business? China duty still exists. Supply chains. Maritime.
"Indonesia may struggle to deliver on new US farm import promises, traders say" 😲 https://t.co/EJEVp0S8sc
CME Group introduced a 1‑ounce gold futures contract in January 2025, expanding its COMEX product suite. Daily trading volume has risen steadily, with a pronounced uptick since September, indicating growing market acceptance. The contract’s performance contrasts with many new derivatives...
USDA confirms the sale of 178,000 tons of U.S. corn for delivery to Japan. 154kt is for 2026/27 and 24kt is for 2027/28.
🇺🇸U.S. export sales were pretty dismal across the board last week. 107kt new crop wheat was sold in the week, which was more than expected. https://t.co/Jk2c7Ibkg5
Hephae Energy Technology has appointed industry veteran Andy Bruce as president to drive the commercialization of its ultra‑high‑temperature geothermal drilling and robotics solutions. Bruce brings more than three decades of leadership in downhole drilling, energy services, and M&A across companies...
Crude DID end up trading partially into the cave last night....but of course, not when we were looking for this yesterday... https://t.co/BuN0hJWHds
Chinese rare earth export controls are still choking off lots of material to the US
Geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran have added a sizable risk premium to oil, pushing Brent into the low‑70s and sparking forecasts of $100 per barrel if conflict escalates. The surge has lifted the STOXX Europe 600 Oil...
Silver futures surged past $90 per ounce, marking a significant rebound after recent sell‑offs. Gold futures also climbed, adding $47 to reach $5,224 per ounce. The rally suggests a new potential trading range for silver between $60 and $120, moving...
WTI comparative inventory returned to a surplus It has increased 12 mmb to 5.3 mmb more than the 5-year average $65.30 WTI was $8 > marginal price on the red yield curve the week ending February 20 #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit...
A good week for the oil glut story U.S. comparative inventory rose 12 mmb for the week ending February 20 Crude C.I. rose 13 mmb, gasoline was flat and rose distillate rose 0.1 mmb #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities...
Tecnoglass Inc. trimmed its 2025 revenue midpoint guidance by $20 million after commercial construction invoicing slowed, with roughly half of the shortfall expected to roll into 2026. The company faces sharply higher aluminum input costs—LME prices up 15% and U.S. premiums...
A very compelling chart. The recent rally in metals and mining has not yet evolved into a material inflationary impulse, in my view. Markets still seem to be dismissing that possibility — even though history suggests otherwise. https://t.co/FhHZJUOI67
The Northern Territory recorded a $1.7 billion gold output in 2024/25, aiming for a $2 billion target. Mining Minister Gerard Maley stressed that the region remains under‑explored and called for intensified prospecting to sustain future projects. The government also seeks to broaden...
The U.S. Energy Information Administration released data showing a massive 16 million‑barrel‑per‑day increase in crude output, the largest build in years. Despite the headline‑grabbing surge, equity and commodity markets barely moved, as traders remain fixated on escalating Iran‑Israel tensions. Simultaneously, the...
Soybeans and corn rallied on short covering and a weaker U.S. dollar, lifting both grain complexes despite mixed weather signals. Brazil’s soybean harvest is progressing, but export forecasts were trimmed to 10.69 million tons, while Argentina’s rain benefits later‑planted beans. Traders...
U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service projects Canadian wheat ending stocks at 5.82 million tonnes for 2025‑26, notably lower than Agriculture and Agri‑Food Canada’s 7.35 million‑tonne estimate. Both agencies still forecast a record 39.96 million tonnes of total wheat production, up 23 %...
Lundin Gold is investing $100 million in 2026 to deepen exploration at Ecuador’s Fruta del Norte mine, aiming to extend its life amid robust gold prices. The Canadian miner has partnered with Australian firm Fleet Space Technologies, using the ExoSphere platform...
The WisdomTree Efficient Gold Plus Gold Miners Strategy Fund (GDMN) has surged roughly 42% since the start of 2026, reflecting a broader rally in gold prices. The World Gold Council attributes the rally to heightened geopolitical risk and the prospect of rising...
Americans are exhausted by prices that remain far above pre-pandemic levels. From a year earlier: Coffee +18.3%. Ground beef +17.2%. Electricity +6.3%. AFFORDABILITY = TRUMP'S ACHILLES HEEL. https://t.co/b1uvKYJPHt
U.S. ethanol production held steady at 1.113 million barrels per day, slipping 5,000 barrels from the prior week but climbing 32,000 barrels year‑over‑year as plants chase demand. Iowa State University’s Center for Agricultural and Rural Development reported improved operating margins...
Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe is leading a week‑long trade mission to India, concentrating on agriculture, potash and uranium. The trip coincides with the Raisina Dialogue and runs alongside Prime Minister Mark Carney’s meetings with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Moe aims...
The USDA Economic Research Service forecasts a 2.5% rise in overall grocery prices for 2026, slightly below the 20‑year average of 2.6%. Seven of the 15 food‑at‑home categories, including beef, fish, sugar and non‑alcoholic beverages, are expected to outpace the...
North Sea crude spreads fell to a two‑month low after Vitol and TotalEnergies halted a heavy buying spree, pushing the WTI Midland spread to just $1.70 above Brent. Derivative indicators turned bearish as weekly Brent CFDs entered contango and the...
Futures opened narrowly mixed as traders focused on month‑end positioning, with limited fresh news and low volume. In South America, Brazil soybean quality is slipping due to excess moisture, raising concerns for both soy and upcoming corn crops. Meanwhile, wildfires...
Fastmarkets announced that the contract price for spodumene min 6% Li2O CIF China was published 2 hours 36 minutes later than scheduled. The price is part of Fastmarkets' industrial minerals package and serves as a benchmark for global lithium‑ion supply...
