Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
PV Module Prices Continue to Rise Unabated
Photovoltaic module prices climbed for the fourth month in a row, rising 5.5% between March and April 2026, with all‑black modules posting the steepest gains. The increase occurs despite falling polysilicon costs and the removal of Chinese export tax credits, indicating demand outpacing supply. Chinese manufacturers have trimmed capacity, easing the previous oversupply in Europe and tightening global availability. Installers report longer lead times and higher prices, especially in the residential segment that relies on high‑power all‑black modules.
Underpriced Inflation Risk: 2021 Gas Surge From Refill Delay
Still think this is an underpriced inflation risk, not due to the ME situation per se, though it doesn't help. In 2021, gas prices rose strongly too in the latter part of the year on the eve of the...
Crude Rally May Echo 2022 US Gas Decline
Crude Surge Could Track Falling US Gas Akin to 2022 Big green quarterly candles in Brent crude oil to roughly $120 a barrel have marked peaks and shifts to enduring red reversion since 2008. Has this pattern changed? Full report on the...
CZPT Set Zinc Concentrates TC Guidance at $35-70 per Tonne for Q2 2026 Purchasing
Fastmarkets reports that the China Zinc and Lead Producers’ Association (CZPT) has cut its Q2 2026 zinc concentrate transaction cost (TC) guidance to $35‑70 per tonne, a $60 per tonne reduction from the $105‑120 range set for Q1 2026. Spot...
Corn's Tight Range Signals Potential April‑May Price Peak
Range-Bound Ags Ripe to Move - Is Up Sustainable? The agriculture sector may be guided by corn -- its most significant commodity -- which hasn't ended a quarter outside a per-bushel range of about $4-$5 since 2Q23. That managed money (hedge...
Silver's 2.3x MA Premium Signals Pullback to $50
Normal Silver Retracement Toward $50, Then $34 Not since 1980 has silver's price and volatility been as stretched as they are now, with reversion implications. My graphic highlights the metal at a 2.3x premium to its 20-quarter moving average on April...
The Chocolate Tastes Bitter at Barry Callebaut
Barry Callebaut, the Swiss chocolate giant, reported a more than 7% revenue drop to CHF 6.75 billion (≈$7.4 billion) in the first half of its fiscal year, driven by supply‑chain disruptions linked to the war in Iran and excess cocoa capacity. Sales volumes...
Citadel CEO Ken Griffin Warns a Six‑to‑twelve‑month Hormuz Shutdown Would Trigger a Global Recession
Citadel founder Ken Griffin told the Semafor World Economic conference that a six‑to‑12‑month closure of the Strait of Hormuz would make a global recession unavoidable. He linked the risk to oil prices above $100 a barrel and the chokepoint’s role...
Middle East War Spikes Oil Prices, Straining Emerging Market Budgets and Fuel Subsidies
The war in the Middle East has triggered the biggest oil‑supply disruption in history, sending Brent up over 60% and forcing Jamaica’s government to abandon a $4.50‑per‑litre fuel cap, a move that could cost the island $80 million in lost revenue....
Ivanhoe Mines Sees Strong Local Demand for Sulphuric Acid in DRC Amid Global Supply Tightness
Ivanhoe Mines has begun commercial sales of sulphuric acid, a copper‑processing by‑product, to other miners along the Democratic Republic of Congo’s copper belt. The company produced just over 100,000 tonnes in Q1 and expects output to climb to 600,000‑700,000 tonnes...
CFTC Probes Suspicious Oil Futures Trades Ahead of Trump’s Iran Policy Shift
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has launched a probe into oil futures contracts traded on CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange platforms, alleging the trades were timed ahead of President Donald Trump’s policy shift on the Iran war. Regulators have...
Three Scenarios for Energy, Central Banks, Rates and FX Markets
ING outlines three energy‑price scenarios tied to the Middle East cease‑fire outlook. In a base case, Brent crude steadies at $90‑100 per barrel and the euro trades around 1.18‑1.20 by year‑end. A moderate disruption pushes Brent above $100 and lifts...
Energy Market Outlook Hinges on the Middle East
Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain largely cut off, tightening the physical market and creating a $30‑per‑barrel premium for dated Brent over futures. About 13 million barrels per day are offline, prompting demand‑destruction measures in Asia and likely elsewhere....
Listing the Risks Behind (Unpredicted) Solar Oversupply and the Resulting Extreme Low Prices
Solar capacity in the EU is growing at roughly 60 GW per year, creating frequent midday oversupply that can push electricity prices into negative territory. When actual generation exceeds day‑ahead forecasts by several gigawatts, markets have seen four‑digit negative prices, as...
Oil Prices Holding Firm
Oil prices are stabilizing after a sharp pullback from war‑driven panic levels, with Brent sliding from a recent high of $111.80 to a 28‑day low of $90.40. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 0.9 million‑barrel draw in commercial crude inventories...
Alphamin Says Tin Price Sustainable as Stars Align
Alphamin, a DRC‑based tin miner listed on the JSE and TSX, is on track to post a record quarter with earnings of about $158 million, thanks to tin prices climbing from $30,000 to a peak near $60,000 per tonne and now...
Iran War: Six Weeks in, How Have Food Prices Changed?
Food prices have risen since the Iran war began, but seasonal planting has limited the immediate impact. Vegetable oils, especially soybean oil, surged to two‑year highs as they act as crude oil substitutes in biofuel production. Grains and oilseeds have...
Strait of Hormuz Disruption and Global Supply Implications>
In Q1 2026 the U.S.–Iran conflict shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting roughly 40% of global nitrogen trade and 20% of LNG supply. The chokepoint closure drove Brent crude from about $61 to a peak above $117 per barrel before diplomatic...
Thursday Briefing: What It Will Take for Britain to Break up with Natural Gas
Britain’s economy remains tightly linked to natural‑gas prices, a relationship that exploded into a cost‑of‑living crisis after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. A new geopolitical flashpoint – the US‑Israel strike on Iran – threatens to push gas prices higher,...
Fuel Rollback: Diesel May Drop ₱20, Gasoline ₱3 Next Week
Fuel prices in the Philippines are set to retreat next week as easing Middle‑East tensions push global benchmarks lower. Industry data based on the Platts Singapore mean projects diesel to drop ₱18‑20 per liter (about $0.36) and gasoline to fall...
What Does the Geelong Refinery Fire Reveal About Australia’s Fuel Supplies?
Late Wednesday a fire broke out at Viva Energy's Geelong refinery in Corio, believed to be caused by equipment failure. The plant, which can process up to 120,000 barrels per day and supplies more than half of Victoria’s fuel and...
Fashion Briefing: Gold Prices Are Skyrocketing, Squeezing the Jewelry Industry’s Margins in Uncomfortable Ways
Gold prices have surged dramatically, with futures topping $5,500 in January and analysts now projecting levels near $6,000 by year‑end. The rally is fueled by persistent inflation and heightened Middle East tensions, which have reinforced gold’s safe‑haven appeal. This price...
Oil Prices Trade Subdued Amid Fragile Ceasefire, Peace Deal Hopes
Oil prices edged lower on Thursday as Brent slipped to $94.68 and WTI to $90.96, reflecting a modest 0.26% and 0.36% decline respectively. Market sentiment was tempered by optimism over a cease‑fire expected to hold through 21 April and renewed Iran‑US...
ICYMI - Reports that Iran Proposes Partial Hormuz Reopening for Ships via Oman Waters
Iran has signaled a willingness to let commercial vessels transit the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz without attack, linking the offer to progress in US‑Iran negotiations. The proposal marks a shift from earlier hardline ideas such as transit...
EU Launches Online Platform to Match Buyers with Critical Raw Material Suppliers
The European Commission opened the first call of its Raw Materials Mechanism on April 13, creating an online marketplace that aggregates demand for rare earths, battery and defence materials. The voluntary, market‑based platform is designed to help European firms diversify...
Cocoa Producers Boost Hedge Sales as Prices Slip 2.6% on Margin Pressure
Cocoa producers in the Ivory Coast surged forward sales to 800,000 metric tons for the 2026/27 season, triggering a 2.6% drop in May ICE futures. The surge in hedge unwinding coincides with record short positions by funds and inventory levels...
Urea Outlook Brightens with 250,000t From Indonesia
Incitec Pivot Fertilisers has signed a deal with Indonesia’s PT Pupuk Indonesia to import about 250,000 tonnes of agricultural‑grade urea into Australia for the May‑December cropping window. The shipment represents roughly 20 % of the nation’s remaining fertilizer requirement for the current season, helping offset...
Strait of Hormuz Crisis Should Catalyze African Biofertilizer Production (Commentary)
Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted synthetic fertilizer shipments, exposing Africa’s reliance on imports that account for up to half of its supply. In response, the Dangote Group is set to triple its output to 9 million metric tons...
Global Seaborne Crude Oil Shipments Down 16% Since Start Of The Iran War
Since the Iran war began, global seaborne crude oil shipments have dropped 16% to 38.4 mbpd, a loss of 7.6 mbpd versus the first nine weeks of 2026. The decline reflects a 9.5% shortfall of the U.S. EIA’s projected 2026 production reaching...
Silver Is Breaking Out
Silver has broken above the descending trend line of a recent triangle pattern, confirming a bullish shift after its correction from a $121 peak in late January. The metal remains above its upward‑sloping 200‑day moving average, indicating sustained momentum. Analysts...
DRC Copper Climbs 10%, Cobalt Shipments Plunge
DRC copper output rose 10pc in 2025 as major mines expanded, while cobalt shipments plunged under export controls. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/drc-copper-output-growth-accelerates-as.html
India's LNG Importers Snap up Spot Shipments Despite High Prices
India’s LNG importers have accelerated purchases from the spot market, taking advantage of a recent dip in prices 🇮🇳💰 Several shipments were purchased for April-May delivery around $15/mmbtu (that's still 50% higher than pre-war prices) https://t.co/IuRfMTrXqs
Iran War Pushes U.S. Energy Prices Higher, Threatens Growth
The Iran war has driven U.S. gasoline to $4.10 a gallon and added upward pressure on inflation, while economists warn it could shave a few tenths of a percentage point off GDP. Higher borrowing costs and mixed consumer‑spending data underscore...
Energy Prices Far Below 2022 Peaks, Economy Remains Stable
On a serious note, this utter nonsense from Luke doesn’t pass the simplest of reality tests. If you look at weighted prices across oil, gas, electricity, etc. in the West, we remain miles below peak 2022 prices - and those prices...
Speculative
When you know if it were 2021 this entire internet would be calling for $600 dollar oil, jumping over each other to share Zoltan Pozsar latest note, and warning of a 'molecule crisis' every hour but you just can't...
Iron Ore Jumps to $107.6/t as Hormuz Blockade and Failed Middle East Talks Spike Costs
Iron ore benchmark fines rose $1.25 to $107.6 per tonne on April 13, snapping a three‑week decline. The surge stems from a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the collapse of Middle East peace negotiations, which lifted shipping costs...
US Crude Inventories Drop, First Since Iran Conflict
Today, the EIA released data on crude oil inventories held by US firms. Since the first time since the US-Israeli war on Iran began, inventories have declined. STAY LONG OIL. https://t.co/sc7GCwRvTK
China's Food Security Policy Fuels Global Fertilizer Scarcity
China is prioritizing food security over producer profitability That keeps fertilizer cheap at home while exporting scarcity to global markets. China has a strategy The US hauls Bessent into a WH press conference to make false promises about $3 gas by September
Economist Jim Rickards Says the Biggest Opportunity of the Decade Is Quietly Sitting in Alaska
Macro economist and former CIA adviser Jim Rickards released a free video presentation highlighting a quiet but significant shift in U.S. resource policy. He points to President Trump’s Executive Order 14153, signed in January 2025, which speeds up permitting for...
Australian Fuel Crunch Deepens After Refinery Fire
Australia's fuel crunch is set to get worse 🇦🇺🚨 A major fire at one of Australia’s only two oil refineries will shut some of its production. The refinery supplies 10% of domestic demand Australia’s petroleum product supplies were already really tight due...
Pain At The Pump Not So Bad For Americans
U.S. gasoline prices have risen over 40% since the war began, pushing the national average above $4 per gallon. When measured against average hourly earnings, a gallon now costs about 7.7 minutes of work, down from 10.7 minutes in June...
Oil’s 50% Surge Sparks Supercycle Talk but Risks Linger
Oil prices have surged more than 50 % since late February after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran prompted Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz, tightening global supply. The abrupt supply shock, combined with a fifth of LNG capacity offline,...
How A Government Gold Price Reset Could Actually Work...
Gold futures slipped $30 on Wednesday, settling at $4,820 per ounce, while silver futures fell 15 cents to $79.39. The article explores a hypothetical government‑driven gold price reset, outlining the mechanical steps such a move would require. It also notes...
Gold Rises as Push for US-Iran Diplomacy Eases Inflation Risk
Gold edged higher, breaking above $4,810 an ounce after a 1.1% dip the day before. The rally was sparked by renewed US‑Iran diplomatic talks that could extend a cease‑fire by two weeks, easing inflation worries tied to the conflict. Despite...
Oil Steady on Signs US, Iran Working Toward Ceasefire Extension
Oil prices steadied on reports that the United States and Iran are weighing a two‑week cease‑fire extension to give diplomats more time for a peace deal. Brent crude traded just under $95 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate hovered near...
U.S. Is Most Resilient to the Energy Shock, Until It Isn’t
The seven‑week war in Iran has disrupted oil and gas flows, hitting Asia and Europe hard while the United States remains comparatively insulated. However, U.S. consumers are already feeling higher gasoline prices—over $1 per gallon—and a 3.3% year‑over‑year CPI increase...
California’s Energy Costs Driven by Policy, Not Consumption
Grok on California’s high price of energy: “It’s a regulated monopoly system layered with aggressive state climate, equity, and reliability mandates that socialize expensive fixed/policy costs onto volumetric rates. This creates high prices despite lower usage.” @tomsteyer, that kind of sounds...
The US Diesel Shock: Inventories to Record Lows, Prices to Record Highs?
U.S. diesel inventories are projected to plunge to historic lows, according to the Energy Information Administration’s latest forecast. The tightening supply has driven diesel futures above $5 per gallon, the highest level since 2022. Contributing factors include extensive refinery maintenance,...
Silver Poised for Squeeze and Price Surge
The Financial Times reports that SILVER is RIPE for another SQUEEZE and PRICE SURGE. I agree. STAY LONG or GET LONG. https://t.co/Y8DQhIXdge
Market Watch: US Gas Futures Inch Higher From 18-Month Low
U.S. natural gas futures edged up 1.1 cents on Wednesday, trading at $2.61 per million British thermal units after hitting an 18‑month trough earlier in the week. Analysts at Gelber & Associates expect a modest reprieve in demand, with a...