Know What's Happening in Commodities
Know What's Happening in Commodities
Ireland launches €250M relief package as heating oil prices double
Heating oil prices in Ireland surged from about $545 to over $1,090 per fill within a month amid the Middle East conflict. The government responded with a €250 million ($273 million) relief package that includes excise cuts and a diesel rebate, though experts say a national energy‑security strategy is still lacking.
Also developing:
By the numbers: Oil majors acquire $164M of Alaska oil leases
During the weekend of Feb. 28 Iran strikes, CME’s COMEX gold futures were closed for 48 hours, leaving a gap for macro‑risk pricing. Always‑on perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid and Binance stayed live, with Hyperliquid’s gold and silver perps trading at a 75‑78 bp premium and ending the weekend 22‑31 bp closer to the CME reopening price than Binance. When COMEX reopened, the first benchmark print validated Hyperliquid’s price, effectively front‑running the traditional market. The episode highlights how continuous derivatives can become the primary venue for price discovery when legacy exchanges are offline.
Gold has dropped sharply amid the swell in volatility - whereas the Dollar has jumped. The metal is still a safe haven, but a lot of capital was deployed during its run up as a diversification play (and some as...
Corteva posted a modest 1% revenue rise to $5.26 billion, driven by higher commodity prices that revived farmer economics and supported seed and crop‑protection sales. The company leveraged disciplined pricing and cost controls to expand gross margins and lift net income...
The Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) conference in Toronto, drawing over 27,000 attendees, has placed critical minerals at the forefront of its agenda. Industry leaders warned that geopolitical fragmentation is heightening supply‑chain vulnerability for metals such as copper,...
Technical analysis isn't meant to be a prediction tool, but better used to show levels and momentum. Then it is up to Mr. Market to see how it trades. GC met the projected downside, but it did not have...
Updated chart of our 1-variable stock market. This is how markets behave during exogenous shocks - stocks need oil to peak. Aftermath eco forecasts rarely matter. Same thing happened last year, but with trade uncertainty. Need something to the...
Tharisa Resources has seen a 105% year‑on‑year rally but still lags larger PGM peers, trading at a deep discount despite strong fundamentals. The market penalises the stock for liquidity constraints and uncertainty around financing the Karo Platinum project. Spot PGM...
A bipartisan group of House members led by Rep. Jodey Arrington sent a letter to USTR Jamieson Greer urging the removal of India’s 11% tariff on U.S. cotton as a priority in the pending U.S.–India trade talks. They cite the...
Bullish traders bought 2,000 USO March 20 84‑call contracts on Feb 26, just before the Strait of Hormuz was effectively shut after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. The closure halted roughly 20 % of global seaborne oil, sending Brent up 13 %...
McKinsey’s latest commodity trading report warns that volatility cycles are shortening, diminishing the relevance of traditional super‑cycle models. Trading revenues slipped to $69 billion in 2025, yet remain about twice pre‑pandemic levels, establishing a higher baseline. The firm highlights AI and...
Escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have sharply lifted crude oil prices and triggered a surge in freight rates for key non‑ferrous commodities. Major carriers such as MSC, Maersk and Hapag‑Lloyd have suspended Middle East bookings and imposed War...
Spot gold has now fallen below $5,100 despite rising global uncertainty. Safe haven bids are fading as traders de risk and raise cash. Silver has dropped under $78, down $20 in just 24 hours. Volatility is accelerating across metals . Is this...
U.S. diesel prices jumped 10 cents to $3.809 per gallon for the week ending Feb. 23, with the Midwest posting the steepest regional rise of 13 cents. The West Coast continues to lead in absolute cost, averaging $4.465. By contrast, gasoline...
Wood Mackenzie warns global lithium demand could exceed 13 Mt LCE by 2050 under an accelerated net‑zero transition. Without new investment, supply deficits could appear as early as 2028, with gaps widening to 8.5 Mt LCE by 2050. Electric vehicles account for...
Jack Lifton interviewed Deep Sea Minerals CEO James Deckelman about the company’s push into polymetallic seabed nodules as a new source of critical minerals. Deckelman highlighted a projected doubling of demand by 2040, a widening supply gap, and soaring copper...
Crude tanker rates in unchartered territory; VLCC index tops $420K ▶️Baltic Exchange’s TD3C MEG-China index assessed at $423,736 per day on Monday; TD2 MEG-Singapore index at $257,986 per day ▶️Global average VLCC index reaches $280,941 per day, highest level since at least...
The rate of discovering new copper deposits has fallen by half over the past decade, driven by a roughly 60% drop in grassroots exploration funding. In contrast, brownfield and mine‑site exploration has supplied four times more copper than greenfield discoveries,...
Efficacy of such a move @chigrl ? Aramco Explores Plan to Export Oil Via Red Sea to Avoid Hormuz The world’s biggest oil exporter has a 5M barrel-a-day pipeline that runs across the country which can transport oil from fields in the...
Indian coffee exports are accelerating, with January‑February shipments up 40% to 80,931 tonnes and total 2025 sales surpassing $2 billion. The West Asia and North Africa region, accounting for roughly 20% of exports, is now a key growth market after Europe....
Silver's $100 Ceiling May Be Solidifying - A key risk for silver and most risk assets may be the spike in precious-metals volatility and plunging crypto prices spilling over into equities. My graphic highlights why we view a rebound in equity...
The U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict has triggered the largest oil price jump in four years as the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, sending crude markets into turmoil. Inflation concerns now dominate Treasury trading, pushing the 10‑year yield above 4% and raising mortgage‑rate...
Analysts at S&P Global warn that the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran could cause the largest oil‑supply disruption ever if tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz collapses. Recent data show only five tankers transited on March 1 versus the usual 60,...
EUROPE has depleted its gas inventories faster than average this winter in the expectation there would plenty of LNG to refill them over the coming summer. EU storage sites are on average just 30% full down from more than 82%...
Midas Touch Consulting issued its Gold Daily Call for March 3, 2026, projecting that spot gold will initially trade sideways before turning lower. The technical chart highlights a near‑term support zone around $2,050 per ounce and resistance near $2,150. The note cites...
Lithium Royalty Corp buys a 1.5% Goulamina lithium royalty in Mali, gaining long-dated spodumene exposure. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/goulamina-lithium-royalty-deal.html
ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy warned that forecasting a rate move too quickly would be a mistake, emphasizing that policy decisions will not hinge solely on volatile energy prices. He noted that France’s exposure to Middle‑East tensions remains limited,...
🚨 IRAN WAR DAY 4 — A DIFFERENT SHOCK 🚨 Day 4 changes the calculus. This isn't just an oil story anymore. QatarEnergy — the world's largest LNG supplier, covering 20% of global supply — halted all production after Iranian drones...
White sugar prices barely moved in May 2026, closing at $407.7/tonne, as futures steadied above $400 after a five‑year low. Despite the tactical bounce, surplus projections for 2025/26 and 2026/27 dominate market sentiment, limiting upside. Brazil’s modest output dip and...
Qatar, the world’s largest LNG exporter, faces a supply crunch as regional geopolitical tensions and export‑capacity constraints tighten the market. The disruption has injected a hefty risk premium into spot and forward LNG prices, pushing contracts up 15‑20% year‑over‑year. Buyers...
South Africa’s 2025‑26 corn harvest is projected at 16.1 million tonnes, a 3.1% decline from the previous record‑high season despite a 4.6% expansion in planted area. Yield variability, especially in key provinces, outweighs the acreage gain, while white corn output edges...
The New South Wales government has extended the development consent for the Dartbrook thermal coal mine by six years, now running until 5 December 2033. The extension secures the mine’s 6 Mtpa coal handling and preparation plant (CHPP) operations. The decision arrives amid...
DC won’t let high oil prices hurt Americans Good luck As @rory_johnston frames it, here are the options • SPR release (here we go again) • Sanctions relief on Russia (err... not great) • Gas tax holiday (2022 redux) You can’t print barrels https://t.co/3KCAj8NtGr #Oil #EnergyMarkets...
Is the oil market too complacent right now? New @axios piece explores the question. #OOTT #energy (1/2)
$CORN Weekly. Wheat and Soybeans have been hot. But watch corn fund for long-term base bottom breakout above $18. Big-time input for broad economy https://t.co/yPBIFa6GwG
Beautiful move yesterday off 50sma, gap down below it today. $XME Metal volatility never disappoints https://t.co/XWFZZ8XFWH
European natural gas is trading at >5x US natural gas prices. Last time this was the case was August 2024. $EQT $AR $RRC $CRK $CNX $EXE https://t.co/f1wU8S3w6b
Upper Keltner for #soybeans right here at 11.64. Close below that would probably allow for a little more follow through to the downside. Feels like we are moving more to risk off VS buy everything because oils inflationary....
I showed yesterday the duration of major #gold bull markets and that the current one is the shortest on record—it would also be the lowest percent gain, more evidence we've go a long way to go... https://t.co/nMauHEtp2A
China won the mineral war. Two new books show how the West let it happen Read more here: https://t.co/9ofBAHFGLx https://t.co/Qa5SYQX6Dg
Asia is weak, oil is ripping, we're in a fast market right now on The Morning Show https://t.co/jn2RN28AFk
The Brent oil price is now up a stunning 14% from Friday and we're starting to see disorderly strengthening in the Dollar as the global risk-off builds. Even gold is down versus the Dollar at this point. This is a...
What level does crude have to trade below for SPX to go green on the day
Here is the latest 7-day rolling number from the Strait of Hormuz. Impacted? Yes. Closed? No. https://t.co/paTmzStHh6
Crude Oil prices are at about the mid-point of a 20-year range $150 Crude is NOT NOT out of the question for 2026 With Gavin in power in California, $10 per gal gas is within sight All for homeless tents under every bridge...
Everyone assuming the Oil move is inflationary. An Oil spike historically more often than not precedes equity tail events and economic recessions. Why? Speed of Oil move is deflationary shock.
For those into proper Edwards and Magee charting (not this modern day junk), this could be what is happening to Gold https://t.co/9oNZBtZmkg
What does the potentially emerging energy crisis mean for Europe? Yesterday I was in a media briefing with 75 journalists. Here is a snippet of what I told them. https://t.co/3dT441Yllq
Everyone that traded during 2022 just collectively remembered the relationship between JKM and Japanese/Korean Equities that we all forgot when natural gas prices were calm.
“Can China act as a buffer? China has been loading up on cheap, sanctioned oil, putting some of it away in storage. In a report, analysts at Morgan Stanley said China could slow down on its purchases if oil prices...
Qatar LNG offline — unprecedented. U.S. exporters win, importers lose, says @seb_kennedy Ukraine & Iran wars expose a core flaw in the “energy transition” narrative. All energy depends on supply chains — break them, you break energy. No supply chains, no energy. Plan B? #LNG...
