Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Critical Notices, Apr. 15, 2026
Energy Intelligence posted a "Critical Notices" entry for April 15, 2026, which traditionally shares market‑moving natural gas flow data from major North American interstate pipelines. The article is gated behind a login, so specific volumes, line‑pack changes, or operational constraints are not publicly disclosed. Nonetheless, the notice signals that pipeline operators expect supply adjustments that could influence regional gas balances. Market participants typically monitor these releases to gauge short‑term price movements.
Natural Gas Futures, Apr. 15, 2026
The natural gas market is under pressure from several fronts: Russia’s Portovaya LNG terminal has resumed blacklisted sales, adding Russian cargoes back into global supply; Australia is debating an LNG export tax and curbs to address a domestic fuel‑security crisis;...
Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity, Apr. 15, 2026
With several gigawatts of nuclear capacity offline across Europe and the United States, gas is poised to fill the reliability gap in 2026. Analysts estimate that roughly 30 TWh of additional gas‑generated electricity will be required, pushing overall gas demand up...
Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs, Apr. 15, 2026
Energy Intelligence’s April 15 2026 report shows U.S. natural‑gas spot prices falling to $2.45 per MMBtu while wholesale electricity averaged $45 per MWh. Spark spreads narrowed to $38 per MWh, the lowest level since 2023, as renewable output surged and demand softened...
LNG Shock, Coal Myths, & The Real Winners On The Grid
The March 2026 Hormuz LNG disruption did not trigger a global coal surge; instead, CREA’s real‑time data show fossil generation fell 1% year‑on‑year, with coal flat and gas down 4%. Outside China, coal dropped 3.5% while solar and wind grew...
Soybeans Supported by Expectations for U.S./China Trade Talks
Soybean futures climbed on fund and technical buying as traders grew optimistic about a mid‑May high‑level U.S.–China trade meeting, spurred by a recent Trump social‑media post. The meeting, delayed by the Iran conflict, is seen as a catalyst for easing...
Jet Fuel Supplies Are Sharply Affected by the Near-Closure of the Strait of Hormuz
Jet fuel prices have roughly doubled as ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz plummets, creating a double‑whammy disruption for both crude imports to Asian refineries and finished jet fuel exports from Gulf refineries. Europe has been warned of a...
DRC Chemical Shortages Threaten Copper and Cobalt Output, Prices Surge
A sudden shortage of sulphuric acid and sodium metabisulfite (SMBS) in the Democratic Republic of Congo has forced major miners to cancel orders and consider output cuts. The disruption, linked to shipping delays from the Iran conflict, could tighten global...
EU Economy Chief Warns of Stagflation Shock Threatening Euro Stock Valuations
European Union economy commissioner Vera Jourova warned that the bloc faces a “stagflationary shock” driven by war‑related supply bottlenecks and persistent inflation. The warning raises concerns for Euro‑area corporate earnings and could pressure equity valuations across the region.
World Bank Forecasts 2026 Commodity Lows as Fertilizer Prices Surge 26%
The World Bank’s April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook projects aggregate commodity prices to hit six‑year lows by year‑end, even as fertilizer costs surge 26.2% in March. An oil surplus of 1.2 million barrels per day drives the broader decline, while geopolitical...
Jet Fuel Prices Double to $198/Barrel Amid Iran War, Airlines Face Cost Surge
Global jet fuel prices have surged to $197.83 per barrel, more than twice the level airlines budgeted for in 2026. The spike, driven by the Iran conflict and Hormuz closures, is prompting carriers worldwide to raise fees, trim routes and...
Asia Faces Strained Supply Lines and Volatile Energy Markets
Asia’s energy markets are under severe strain as Gulf crude shipments face weeks‑long delays and Atlantic imports remain uneconomic. A sustained oil price surge toward $200 per barrel would likely trigger government‑mandated rationing and demand‑reduction measures across the region. The...
Silver Daily Call for April 15th, 2026
Silver surged to $81.02 after a Friday gap‑down, then retreated to $78.24 as traders digested the move. Technical indicators now show an overbought sell signal, pointing to a short‑term consolidation phase. Analysts keep the $83 upside target in view, but...
Economist Says Many 2027 Fertilizer Decisions Will Be Made Soon
CoBank farm‑supply economist Jacqui Fatka warns that U.S. fertilizer buying decisions for the 2027 season will be locked in this summer. The timing is driven by heightened uncertainty from the ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict and the upcoming USMCA renegotiations that could...
Govt's Wheat Procurement to Drop 69% Due to Delayed Arrivals
India’s wheat procurement for the 2026‑27 marketing year is projected to fall 69% to 1.53 million tonnes, down from 5 million tonnes a year earlier. Unseasonal rains delayed harvests, reducing both the quantity and quality of grain arriving at mandis. The Food...
LPG Supply Restoration May Take 3-4 Years, Says Govt Official: Report
A senior Indian government official warned that restoring disrupted global LPG supplies could take three to four years, amid uncertainty over whether production halts are temporary or permanent. India, which sources about 60% of its LPG imports from West Asia,...
South Korea Has An Oil Problem. Canada Is Helping To Fix It
The Strait of Hormuz blockade has forced South Korea to look beyond the Middle East for crude, and Canada’s Trans‑Mountain Expansion (TMX) now ships oil to the Pacific, letting Korean refiners buy Western Canadian Select at about $10 per barrel...
Bessent Optimistic Gas Prices Fall Back to $3 This Summer
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a White House briefing on April 15 that he is optimistic gasoline can fall back to $3 per gallon during the June‑September summer driving window. He linked the price outlook to progress in negotiations to...
Trump’s Waiver Of Jones Act Fails To Cool Oil Prices
President Trump issued a 60‑day Jones Act waiver hoping to shave a few cents off U.S. fuel costs, but oil prices remain elevated as global supply disruptions and rising crude costs dominate. Brent fell 4.2% to $95.09 per barrel and...
Oil Spikes Trigger Swift P/E Collapses, History Repeats
The markets have been pricing for a quick end, much like what happened during the 1990 Gulf War. The analog below shows that the surge in oil prices to $100 (in today’s terms) was quickly reversed, and with it so...
Iran Can Withstand Two Months without Oil Exports
Iran can sustain its current oil output of roughly 3.5 million barrels per day for about two months if exports are halted, according to consultancy FGE NextantECA. The U.S. blockade that began on April 13 blocks an estimated 2 million bpd from reaching China,...
The Economics of Nitrogen, a Phosphorus Squeeze, and the Science Fair | Wheat Pete's Word, Apr 15, 2026
In this episode of Wheat Pete's Word, Pete discusses the stark regional weather variations across North America and their impact on wheat and corn planting, highlights a looming phosphorus fertilizer shortage due to mine closures in Brazil and Morocco, and...
IMF Slashes Growth Outlook to 3.1% Amid Hormuz Blockade
The IMF has cut its global growth forecast to 3.1% as THE Hormuz blockade drives up oil, food, and inflation forecasts
Petrochemicals Lie at Core of Demand Destruction
The International Energy Agency says petrochemical feedstock demand fell by 1.5 million barrels per day in Q2 2026, driven by war‑related outages in the Middle East and costly run cuts across Asia. Gulf‑region plants face reduced operating rates and damaged export routes,...
Aiding Piped Gas Push
The Israel‑Iran conflict disrupted global fuel flows, prompting an LPG shortage in India. The government issued the Natural Gas and Petroleum Products Distribution Order 2026, mandating a 25% boost in LPG output and a 25‑day inter‑booking period to curb hoarding, while...
Oil Prices Coming Down, But for a Worrisome Reason
The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that "demand destruction" is now unfolding as oil prices soar to record levels. The recent partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of global oil shipments, has tightened supply and...
Cosmic‑Ray Data and AI Boost Mining Firms' Hunt for Critical Minerals
Rio Tinto and other mining companies are deploying cosmic‑ray imaging and AI‑driven analytics to map underground mineral deposits, a move driven by record‑high copper prices and looming supply shortfalls. The effort aims to improve subsurface intelligence for both new greenfield...
How Big Oil Is Cashing in on Iran War - The Latest
The world’s 100 largest oil and gas companies generated more than $30 million per hour in unearned profit during the first month of the US‑Israeli war on Iran. Crude prices averaged $100 a barrel in March, driving an estimated $23 billion windfall...
Egypt’s NCIC Issues Tender to Sell Various Fertilizers
Egyptian state‑owned fertilizer producer NCIC has launched a second tender to sell a mix of DAP, TSP, SSP, urea, CAN26 and water‑soluble SOP, with loading scheduled for April. The tender, which closes on 20 April, lists FOB prices ranging from $352...
US Petroleum Inventories Drop 9M Barrels, Crude Rally Stalls
US total commercial petroleum stocks fell by 9 million barrels last week. Crude was down by 0.9 MMbbl, gasoline by 6.3 MMbbl, and diesel by 3.2 MMbbl. Crude had been building faster than usual over the past month and appears to now...
Iran War Drives up African Bitumen Truck Prices
The outbreak of the Iran‑Israel‑US war has sharply lifted bitumen truck prices across sub‑Saharan Africa. In East and Central Africa, ex‑Mombasa rates jumped to KSh165‑175 per kilogram (about $1,159‑$1,313 per tonne), a 40% increase. Nigerian bulk bitumen now trades around...
US Oil Production Hits Record High Amid Hormuz Blockade
CHART OF THE DAY: The barrel of last resort. US total crude oil and refined petroleum products have surged to an all-time high of >12.7 million b/d. (And further highs are likely over the next few weeks as everyone turns...
Brent Oil Near Neutral, Watch $90 Support, $100 Resistance
#BrentOil Comp Doji Candle and Sideways 6 days. Support $90.4, $84, $73.2. Resistance $100, $103.9, $112.1. RSI 52 near Neutral. 13/21 day EMAs Bullish but Lines converging. Doing 8/21 Bear Cross. Top Bollinger Band $110.7. Midpoint Line $100. Bottom Band...
Demand for Colombia LNG Shipments Set to Surge
Colombia’s power sector is gearing up for a sharp increase in LNG imports as an El Niño‑driven dry season threatens its hydropower‑dependent grid. Imports, currently 210 million cubic feet per day, are expected to climb to the SPEC terminal’s full 475 mcf/d capacity...
Asia's Energy Shortage Sparks Rationing and Black Markets
Rationing and black markets have already sprung up in Asia. Some countries have found ways around the shortage (for now), but that has created new issues for others. #iranwar #energy #geopolitics https://t.co/0wpmsFgat3
Imported Inflation via Energy and Food Remains Top Risk
“The biggest risk continues to be that inflation gets imported around the world,” first through energy, then to food & beyond: MS’s Ted Pick. Otherwise, markets will stay strong with even a “narrowing of the cone of uncertainty” around the...
Iran War, Indonesia Curbs to Support Nickel Price: Report
BMI raised its 2026 refined nickel price forecast to $16,600 per tonne, up from $15,800, citing a structurally firmer market despite a persistent global surplus. Indonesia’s decision to cap nickel ore mining quotas at 260‑270 million wet metric tonnes, down from...
French Corn Acreage May Drop 10‑15% Amid Cost Surge
🇫🇷Corn area in France could fall 10-15% on the year amid high fertilizer and energy costs. France's annual corn plantings are only about 4% of what the USA plants, but it plays an important role regionally, accounting for around one-fifth of...
Buy Oil Majors at February Low Prices
Purchases of international oil majors that are trading at their early February levels when Brent was <$70 strike me as 'money good' $XOM $CVX $COP
Bunker Fuel Shortages Loom After US Counter Blocks Strait of Hormuz
US naval counter‑operations have effectively blocked commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting the primary route for bunker fuel shipments to Asia. Analysts warn that within two to three months container lines could encounter a global shortage of low‑sulfur...
High Gas Prices May Spur Blame on Record Exports
Not saying it is right, but if prices at the pump don't drop further, it won't be long before consumers begin to blame "record exports." Surplus and $4.00 gas don't fit comfortably next to each other in our mind.
European Physical Oil Market Shows Tentative Easing, Brent Below $120
Tentative signs -- with a lot of emphasis on tentative-- of easing in the European physical oil market. Dated Brent is falling below $120, and lots of offer today on the key trading window (compared to overwhelming bids in...
Complacent Traders Face Inevitable Corrections, Warns Broker
Had some messages on why I am so down on the cattle. I am not, but one advantage that a broker may have is seeing when their accounts become to complacent and only see higher prices forever. Corrections...
European Wholesale Power Stabilizes at Pre‑war Levels
European wholesale power is back to pre-war levels. Germany 1-year forward is at ~€88 per MWh, almost at par with the 2025 annual average of €87.3 per MWh. French and Great Britain power prices have given up most of the gains...
US Soy Crush Hits 2nd Highest March
🇺🇸NOPA U.S. crush, March 2026: ▪️226.161 mln bu of soybeans ▪️2nd highest for any month; +16% YOY ▪️Below avg trade est (229.978M) ▪️Soyoil stocks 2.039 bln lbs ▪️Below all trade estimates (avg 2.173B) ▪️Stocks at 13yr high for March https://t.co/eWZRN9BEi2
Shale Drilling Needs 18‑24‑month Price Certainty, Not Just High Oil
Higher oil price ≠ more shale drilling @WindsorSe7en What matters is 18–24 month price visibility The forward curve isn’t exactly screaming “drill”
CF Industries Prioritizes US Farmers Over Profitable Exports
One of the big US fertilizer companies, CF Industries, has said it's "foregoing" more profitable exports, in favor of keeping nitrogen at home for US farmers this spring: https://t.co/Ch3Nd83bNR https://t.co/JwPgaISLb6
Supply Gap Emerging as Last Hormuz Tankers Arrive
The tanker companies I spoke to last week confirmed that the last vessels that moved out of the Strait of Hormuz before the closure have reached their destinations at the end of March -- meaning the real supply gap is...
US Blockade Halts Iran's Oil Shipments to China, India
"The U.S. blockade of Iranian ports has all but stopped Iran-controlled or dark-fleet tankers moving Iranian oil to importers mainly China and India." https://t.co/UXsjqOp2by
WTI Crude Jumps as Inventories Plummet and SPR Shrinks
JUST IN: WTI crude surged due to unexpected inventory drops across the energy sector and a massive Strategic Petroleum Reserve decline.