Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Gold Slides to $4,815 as Dollar Recovers, Silver Gains on Weak Dollar
Gold retreated to around $4,815 per ounce as the U.S. dollar index recovered, curbing the metal's earlier gains. At the same time, silver advanced, buoyed by the same dollar weakness and a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty. Traders see the moves as a short‑term test of safe‑haven demand versus currency strength.
Apr 16 | Commodity Week
In this episode of Commodity Week, Todd Gleason and panelists Naomi Bloom, Greg Johnson, and Jim McCormick discuss the current pressures on U.S. corn and soybean markets, focusing on rising fertilizer costs, supply chain disruptions in the Middle East, and...
Foreign Investors Dump $1.5 Bn of Thai Assets as Iran War Spurs Energy Shock
Foreign investors withdrew $823 million from Thai equities and $705 million from bonds in March, driving the baht lower amid an energy shock from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. The outflows, the biggest since October 2024, highlight Thailand’s vulnerability to rising oil...
Gold Pullback Seen as Final Buying Window Before $6,000 Target
Analysts, led by Chris Mancini of the Gabelli Gold Fund, argue the present sideways movement in gold is the last opportunity for investors before the metal climbs to $6,000. Heightened Middle‑East conflict, soaring oil prices and central‑bank buying underpin the...
Why The Conflict In Iran Is Changing How Engine Oil Is Made And Causing Oil Brands To Get Upset With...
The Iran‑U.S. conflict has shut down roughly 44% of the U.S. supply of Group III base oil, a key component for most synthetic motor oils. The American Petroleum Institute responded with a 90‑day Emergency Provisional Licensing program, allowing manufacturers to substitute...
Brent Oil Price Near $100 Again with U.S.-Iran Talks Uncertain and Hormuz Still Blocked
Brent crude for June delivery rose nearly 5% to close at $99.39 a barrel, nudging the benchmark back toward the $100 mark. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily restricted as the U.S. Navy maintains a blockade and...
India and Asian Markets Adapt to Middle East LNG Disruption: S&P Global Energy
S&P Global Energy reports that Middle East LNG supply disruptions are prompting Asian markets to adjust. India’s gas allocation prioritises fertilizers, city gas and transport, leaving power, refining and petrochemicals vulnerable. South Asian countries face demand destruction through rationing and...
ARA Jet Fuel Stocks at Six-Year Low: Insights Global
Jet fuel inventories at the Amsterdam‑Rotterdam‑Antwerp (ARA) hub fell 7.6% to roughly 600,000 t in the week to 15 April, marking the lowest level since April 2020. The decline follows a second consecutive week of draws, driven by disrupted Middle‑East supplies after the...
Daily Energy Report
Oil prices jumped about 4% on April 16 as traders grew skeptical that US‑Iran peace talks will quickly resolve the Hormuz crisis, tightening supply and deepening backwardation. Market participants note that inventory hoarding is more aggressive than anticipated, further constraining...
Rotterdam 1Q Bunker Sales Fall Sharply
Rotterdam’s conventional marine fuel sales slumped 28% year‑over‑year in Q1 2026 after the Netherlands enforced the EU’s RED III mandate, prompting many shipowners to bypass the port. VLSFO volumes plunged 44% to roughly 440,000 t, while HSFO, ULSFO, MGO and MDO also saw...
Correction to Alumina Index, Fob Australia and Inferred Prices on April 15
Fastmarkets issued a correction notice on April 15, adjusting its alumina price indices by two cents per tonne. The Australia FOB index was updated to $303.20 per dry metric tonne, and inferred prices for Vietnam, India, Indonesia and Brazil were...
UK Jet Fuel Supply OK for Now, Outlook Uncertain
UK jet fuel supplies are presently stable, but industry leaders warn that visibility beyond the next six weeks is limited. The disruption of Middle East exports caused by the US‑Israel conflict with Iran has heightened concerns across Europe. Refineries such...
Iran War Prompts Shift to Fob Steel Export Offers
Steel exporters in Asia, Turkey and India are moving from cost‑and‑freight (CFR) to free‑on‑board (FOB) contracts as the US‑Israel conflict with Iran drives up ocean freight and disrupts the Strait of Hormuz. Higher freight rates—up to $80 per tonne to...
Oil Shock Less Severe; Iran Likely to Restore Flow
Of course the world cannot withstand a 20% supply shock of oil for quarters There are just two weird assumptions included in that: 1) The supply shock is not 20% effectively - far from it actually. The bypassing of the strait...
European Utility Expects New U.S. LNG Supply to Soften Blow of Qatari Outage
Italian utility Edison SpA announced it has secured seven LNG cargoes from the United States to compensate for a shortfall caused by QatarEnergy’s force‑majeure declaration. The outage follows Qatar’s shutdown of super‑chilled LNG production amid Middle‑East conflict. Edison’s CEO Nicola Monti cited...
Indonesia Nickel Makers Trim Battery-Feed Output as Sulphur Squeeze Bites (Mining.com/Reuters – April 14, 2026)
A sulphur shortage triggered by the Iran war has forced Indonesian nickel processors to cut output by at least 10% since last month. The curbs target plants that use sulphuric acid to turn nickel ore into mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP),...
Solar PPA Prices in Q1 2026 Fall in Europe, Rise in North America
LevelTen Energy reports that average solar power purchase agreement (PPA) prices fell 13% year‑on‑year to €55.05/MWh (US$64.83/MWh) in Europe during Q1 2026, marking five straight quarters of decline. In contrast, North American solar PPAs rose 13% YoY to US$64.49/MWh, driven by...
Fletcher Building Hikes Prices up to 36% as Iran War Spikes Material and Fuel Costs
Fletcher Building, New Zealand’s largest construction‑materials supplier, announced price increases of up to 36% on items such as plastic piping, citing rising diesel, resin and urea costs tied to the Iran war. The hikes come as the firm warns that...
SGD Firm Up as MAS Tightens Policy Amid Iran‑War Volatility
The Monetary Authority of Singapore raised its policy stance on April 14, the first hike since 2022, driving the Singapore dollar to about $0.79 USD and supporting local equities. The move, aimed at countering soaring oil and gas prices from the...
Vermilion Energy Posts 125,000 Boe/D Q1 Output, Beats Guidance Amid Canadian Surge
Vermilion Energy announced first‑quarter 2026 production of roughly 125,000 barrels of oil‑equivalent per day, exceeding the top end of its guidance. The outperformance stemmed from faster well tie‑ins in the Montney and Deep Basin, while higher European gas prices lifted...
Steel Producers Tease Q1 Earnings Surge, Citing Higher Prices
U.S. steelmakers Nucor and Steel Dynamics are projecting a sharp rise in first‑quarter earnings, buoyed by higher sales volumes and prices after Section 232 tariffs redirected demand to domestic producers. Both firms expect earnings per share to climb roughly $1 versus...
Supply Disruptions and Energy Security
War in Iran has choked the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off about 8% of global oil flow, the largest disruption since the 1970s. In the first month of the conflict, West Texas Intermediate rose roughly 50%, a muted response compared...
USA Crude Oil Stocks Drop Almost 1MM Barrels WoW
The Energy Information Administration’s weekly petroleum status report for the week ending April 10 shows U.S. commercial crude inventories fell 0.9 million barrels to 463.8 million barrels, roughly one percent above the five‑year seasonal average. Total petroleum stocks dropped 13.1 million barrels week‑on‑week while...
Implications of WTI Oil Futures In Backwardation Amid the Supply Crunch
WTI oil futures have entered backwardation, with near‑term May and June contracts trading above the more stable December contract. Backwardation signals a tight market and generates a positive roll yield, contrasting with the negative roll yield seen in contango periods....
ERCOT Says Texas Demand Could Quadruple but Cautions Forecast May Be Inflated
ERCOT’s preliminary long‑term load forecast projects Texas peak electricity demand could soar to 367,790 MW by 2032, roughly four times the 2023 record of 85,508 MW. The surge is attributed to expanding data centers, cryptocurrency mining, and other large‑load industrial customers. Current...
CEO Warns Market Underestimates Oil’s Future Price
As we mostly focus on the front month futures contract and we await the finality to the war and a full reopening of the Strait, I will mention the December contract which stands at about $76.50 as of this writing,...
Middle East Escalation Pushes Aluminium Into a Structural Deficit
Escalating tensions in the Middle East have forced key Gulf aluminium smelters to curtail output, turning a logistics shock into a structural supply deficit. Emirates Global Aluminium halted its Al Taweelah plant, while Alba operates at roughly 30% of capacity and...
States Reject Gas Tax Holidays as Iran War Fuels U.S. Fuel Prices
Most U.S. states are refusing to suspend gasoline and diesel taxes despite record‑high fuel prices sparked by the Iran conflict. The average state gas tax of 32.6 cents per gallon and a national pump price of $4.11 highlight the fiscal...
Open Hormuz Now to Stabilize Global Oil Markets
I'm so, so ready for this war to be over, for shipping traffic through the Strait to resume, and to spend the next month or two tracking the nitty gritty of how the short-term shock rippled through the global oil...
Crypto Hedge Funds Turn to Oil and Gold on 24/7 Blockchain Platforms
Crypto hedge funds are reallocating capital toward tokenized crude oil, gold and copper on 24/7 blockchain exchanges. The move follows a surge in stable‑coin activity and a 9.5% jump in Circle’s stock, underscoring broader crypto‑market momentum.
Europe Has Six Weeks of Jet Fuel Left Caused by 'Dire Strait' Crisis, IEA Chief Warns
The International Energy Agency warned that Europe has roughly six weeks of jet fuel left as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked by the Iran war. Airports Council International Europe says shortages could begin in early May if tankers cannot...
Morning Reads
The Iran war has driven U.S. gasoline to $4.09 per gallon and WTI crude to $93 a barrel, a 37% jump since Feb 28. U.S. crude exports rose to 5.2 million barrels per day, narrowing the import‑export gap to just 66,000 bpd and...
India Could Limit Sulphur Exports as Supplies Tighten, Sources Say
India is weighing limits on sulphur exports as domestic supplies tighten amid falling Middle East imports and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The country imports about 2 million metric tons a year, roughly half from the Middle East, while shipping...
Price Caps Risk Shortages; Pay‑more Ensures Fuel Access
Forget the oil & gas profits debate, I’d like to be reliably able to fill up my family vehicle and price caps at the pump are a slam dunk recipe for shortages Fuel is a global commodity, and those willing to...
Gasoline Futures Hold Strong, AAA Avg Near $4.10
Gasoline future remain bid up pretty well.. $3.15 on RBOB will keep the AAA average near $4.10. https://t.co/frWo9xgFHU
India Imports LNG From US, Oman, and Nigeria in March as Qatar, UAE Supplies Dry Up
India’s LNG imports fell 20% year‑on‑year to 1.2 million tonnes in March 2026 after Qatar and UAE cargoes stopped amid escalating Middle‑East tensions. The shortfall, equivalent to about 47.4 MSCMD of gas, was partially offset by higher shipments from the United States, Oman and...
Closing Strait of Hormuz Sparks Global Oil Market Panic
The nightmare scenario for oil markets (closing the Strait of Hormuz) is now seeing daylight. So far, most acute impacts vary across different regions and markets. But they are spreading. My in-depth talk w/ @WalterIsaacson & @AmanpourCoPBS https://t.co/3W14TCT5OI
Oil Spot Still 29% Above 200‑Day SMA
Oil has come down on with the ceasefire (persisting through reciprocal blockades), but spot is still very high - and the longer it remains elevated, the more permanent economic impact it has. Statistically, spot still 29% above the 200 SMA. Peaked...
Bunker Fuel Prices Begin to Stabilise – but Not at All Ports
Bunker fuel prices are beginning to stabilise at Singapore, the world’s largest bunkering hub, after an early surge that saw very‑low‑sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) breach $1,000 per tonne. The stabilisation reflects ample local stocks and fierce competition that keeps margins...
Ganfeng Profits Surge on Booming EV and AI Storage Demand
China’s lithium giant Ganfeng sees profit jump as EV, ESS battery demand soars The world’s top lithium producer forecasts a strong turnaround as global decarbonisation and AI-driven energy storage fuel demand https://t.co/ugavTV7WR5 via @scmpnews
Tariffs Drive Steel Producers' Q1 Earnings Surge
Yay, tariffs: "Steel producers tease Q1 earnings surge, citing higher prices" https://t.co/gTHXOvmfrG “The domestic producers don’t [have to pay a tariff], meaning if all steel prices rise, that a lot of that flows to the bottom line for them"
Indian Restaurants' 'Slowdown' Is Ringing up a ₹79,000 Cr Bill as Iran War Chokes LPG Supply
A West Asia war‑driven LPG shortage is hitting India’s restaurant sector with an estimated monthly loss of about ₹79,000 crore (≈ $9.5 billion), according to PHDCCI. The disruption has forced roughly 10% of eateries to shut temporarily and 60‑70% to switch to induction or...
2026 Winter Wheat Drought Hits Record Jump, 68% Coverage
🌾Drought coverage in U.S. winter wheat country was unchanged on the week at 68% - near 2022's weekly record. But the acceleration is more concerning, setting 2026 apart from the rest. Coverage has risen 26 percentage points since late Jan, the...
China’s Crude Stockpiling Proved Prudent, Says Column
Last year, the oil market was preoccupied with a question: why China was stockpiling so much crude. I wrote an @Opinion column about it in Sept, and re-reading it ⤵️ now, I must admit that all makes sense: Beijing was...
Mounting Risks for Global Beef Prices: What's Driving Market Uncertainty?
In this episode of Platts Commodities Focus, analysts discuss tightening global beef markets driven by constrained US cattle supplies, China's new safeguard tariffs, and the impact of the Middle East war on freight costs. US herd shrinkage and reduced Mexican...
Brent Futures Rebound After $10 Drop, Still $20 Below May
Brent crude [June] futures prices—and prompt timespreads—are perking back up again this morning after sliding ~$10/bbl through the beginning of the week. Still currently down $20/bbl from where the Brent May contract settled. https://t.co/9Iv78anu65
US Corn Exports Surge; China Still Owes 2025/26 Soybeans
🇺🇸Last week's U.S. corn export sales remained above average, led by Japan, South Korea & Mexico. Soybean volumes were relatively modest. China's 2025/26 soybean purchases stood at 11.5 mmt as of April 9 with 1.9 mmt left to ship. 1.56...
Big Chocolate Makers Likely Buying the Cocoa Dip
who's buying the dip in cocoa prices? (i mean i hope @Nestle @Hersheys are)... https://t.co/57SRUqV4cu
Iran's Job and Inflation Data Drive Oil Analysis
The key known unknown (to me) to analyse oil is the true state of the Iranian economy: jobs and inflation. I hear lots of tales, but I have little confidence on any. Reporting from inside Iran is extremely difficult. Economic damage...
US‑Iran Talks Lift Latin American Commodity Exporters
Now that Iran and the US are negotiating, fear that war may escalate out of control is leaving markets. That's lifting EM oil and commodity exporters, especially across LatAm. Good news for Colombia, Argentina and Brazil. A replay of 2022...