Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Gold Jewellery of Lower Carats to Gain Traction in Run up to Akshaya Tritiya
Gold prices in India have slipped 18% from their January peak of ₹1.80 lakh (≈ $2,170) to ₹1.52 lakh (≈ $1,830) per 10 g, prompting a shift toward lower‑carat jewellery ahead of the auspicious Akshaya Tritiya festival. At current rates, 18‑carat gold costs about ₹1.16 lakh (≈ $1,400) per 10 g, roughly 24% cheaper than 22‑carat, while 14‑carat is 40% cheaper at ₹90,940 (≈ $1,095). Retailers and manufacturers are rolling out festive promotions, and investors are turning to gold ETFs, which have delivered roughly 59% returns since last year’s Akshaya Tritiya. Demand for 18K and 14K pieces is expected to rise 25‑30% year‑over‑year, especially among younger, design‑focused buyers.
US Officials Claim China Is ‘Hoarding’ Oil. What Does the Data Say?
U.S. Treasury officials accused China of hoarding oil amid the US‑Israeli‑Iran conflict, but customs data shows China’s crude imports actually slipped 2.8% in March 2026 after an 8.9% year‑on‑year rise in the first quarter. Port inventory indices fell in early...
Strait Reopen Unlikely; Production Recovery Years Away
"The strait could reopen quickly "It won't, but it could," says @gbrew24 "Unwinding production cuts, though, will take weeks if not longer" I'd say re-starting production will take months to years. There's physical & reservoir damage But mostly world demand is down &...
Silver Faces Sixth Year of Deficit with Stock Drawdown Raising Squeeze Risks, Research Shows
Silver prices have slumped 35% from their 2025 peak of $121.6 per ounce, marking a sixth consecutive year of market deficit. The global deficit is projected to widen to 46.3 million ounces in 2026 despite a 2% drop in total demand....
How Other Countries Are Responding to Surging Oil Prices - and Why Spain Is in a Good Position
Rising oil prices triggered by the Iran‑Houthi conflict have prompted a patchwork of policy responses across Europe. The United Kingdom, grappling with high debt, has resisted new fuel‑duty cuts beyond a £5 bn ($6.3 bn) annual program, while Germany introduced a two‑month...
Oil Prices Slip Below $99 as Iran‑U.S. Talks Boost Market Optimism
Brent crude slipped 0.4% to under $99 a barrel after Reuters reported renewed U.S.–Iran negotiations, sparking optimism that the Gulf conflict could ease. The price drop lifted risk‑off assets, with gold up 0.7% and broader commodity markets watching for further...
Governments Can't Borrow Their Way Out of Energy Crisis
One big and underappreciated difference between today's energy shock and the events of 2021-22 = Governments will not be able to borrow their way out of this one. Many governments borrowed heavily to fund subsidies, bailouts, and other measures to shield...
THIS ISN'T YOUR FATHER'S OIL SHOCK: The 4 Pillars of U.S. Energy Resilience & Why the U.S. Can and Is...
The United States is now far more resilient to oil price spikes than during the 1970s stagflation era. A multi‑decade shift—driven by the shale revolution, lower energy intensity, and a smaller share of gasoline in household budgets—means the economy can...
How the US-Israel War on Iran Is Affecting African Economies
The US‑Israel blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has choked a key oil and fertilizer corridor, driving fuel prices up 30‑70% across Africa and as high as 150% in Somalia. East African and some North African nations that depend on...
January Gas Expected Below $4.40 in Q4
January Gas: Above $5.40 or Below $4.40 in 4Q? A year ago, the January 2027 natural gas future was roughly the same as the $4.60 per MMBtu on April 14, indicating the price to expect in 4Q. A move below the...
Power Insider: The Markets Are Obsessed with the Strait of Hormuz. Why It Matters Less than You Think
Traders are fixated on the Strait of Hormuz, believing ship traffic can forecast oil prices, but new Saudi and UAE pipeline capacity has halved the waterway’s relevance. The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports adds volatility, yet the market’s real...
Copper Prices Overextended; Must Revisit 5‑Year Mean
Copper Peak Inklings? Stretched From 5-Year Mean Copper faces up-too-much risks near the start of 2Q. If the metal doesn't revisit its five-year moving average at $10,253 a ton, it would be the first year since 2021. Copper dropped 14% in...
Asian LNG Demand Weakens as Iran Conflict Reshapes Energy Strategy
Asian LNG imports slipped to 20.4 million tonnes in March 2026, down from a 2025 average of 22.1 Mt, as the Iran‑related conflict disrupts supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz and curtails flows from Qatar and the UAE. The volatility and...
'Demand Destruction Will Spread': IEA Forecasts Sharpest Fall in Global Oil Demand Since Pandemic
The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that global oil demand will contract by about 2.5 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2024, marking the steepest quarterly drop since the COVID‑19 pandemic. The decline is driven by reduced consumption...
Natural Gas Prices Weekly Update – JKM, TTF and Henry Hub (13 April 2026)
Natural gas prices fell across Asia, Europe and the United States last week as warmer weather and easing supply‑demand pressure outweighed earlier geopolitical spikes. The JKM index slipped to the high‑$16 per MMBtu range after briefly touching low‑$18s amid Middle...
EIA Boosts 2026 Brent Oil Price Projection to $96
The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its 2026 Brent crude price outlook to an average of $96 per barrel, up sharply from the $78.84 forecast in March. The agency now expects a volatile quarterly path, with Brent hitting $114.60 in...
Oil Doom Forecasts Wrong: Blockade Didn’t Spike Prices
One month ago, I wrote that oil price forecasts of $150 or $200 were fear-mongering and that a blockade was the way to go. We now have a blockade - an important and courageous step - and oil prices aren't...
Why Oil Refiners Are the Real Winners of $100 Oil Prices
Oil prices breaching $100 a barrel have lifted refinery crack spreads to an unprecedented $54 per barrel, fueling robust margins for U.S. refiners. Valero, Marathon Petroleum and Phillips 66 are capitalising on geographic advantages, heavy‑crude access and diversification, posting record throughput...
Nearly 60% of U.S. Farmers Say Their Finances Are Getting Worse as Fertilizer, Fuel Costs Rise: Survey
A new American Farm Bureau Federation survey shows 58% of U.S. farmers say their finances are worsening as fertilizer and fuel costs surge due to Middle East shipping disruptions. Fertilizer prices jumped from $139 to $217 per acre, a 56%...
Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief
Overnight grain markets were mixed, with corn and soybeans gaining while wheat edged lower. May corn futures broke a $4.46 double‑top, suggesting a potential new support zone. Energy price rebounds and a heightened risk premium are underpinning soybean strength, and...
Saudi Pipeline Restores, Red Sea Crude Loads Surge
Iranian coast blockade to lift April’s Red Sea crude loadings to new highs ▶️Saudi pipeline restored at the weekend following Iran attacks, minimising delays in exports from its west coast ▶️Red Sea loadings peaked in March and likely to surge in April...
Hormuz Closure Drives US Gulf VLGC Rates Above $100K
Hormuz closure pushes Very Large Gas Carriers (VLGC) rates in US Gulf over $100K per day ▶️Baltic Exchange’s US Gulf-Japan VLGC index is at $111,628 per day, its highest level since January 2024, during the Panama Canal drought crisis ▶️US Gulf-Europe VLGC...
New Episode: How Have Global Oil Supply Chains Shifted Around the Iran Conflict?
The latest Energy Technology episode examines how the US‑Israel‑Iran confrontation has reshaped global oil supply chains. With the Strait of Hormuz closed and U.S. blockades on Iranian tankers, Middle‑East exporters such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE have trimmed output...
German DAX Edges Higher as Oil Prices Slip and US‑Iran Talks Resume
German equities climbed almost 1% on Tuesday, buoyed by a drop in Brent crude to $96.50 a barrel and renewed expectations that U.S. and Iranian delegations will reconvene in Pakistan. The move reflects a tentative shift in market sentiment amid...
IMF Chief Economist Warns Iran War Could Force Painful Central Bank Tightening Worldwide
IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas warned that a drawn‑out war in Iran could force central banks to tighten monetary policy far more aggressively than after the pandemic, risking deeper economic pain. The warning comes as the IMF cuts its 2026 global...
Vermilion Energy Beats Q1 Production Forecast, Hits 125,000 Boe/D
Vermilion Energy reported average first‑quarter production of about 125,000 barrels of oil‑equivalent per day, surpassing the top end of its guidance. The outperformance stemmed from faster Montney well tie‑ins, solid Canadian output and a pricing tailwind from European gas markets,...
Analyst Flags Peace Momentum but Gives Oil Market Warning
SEB commodities analyst Ole R. Hvalbye noted that front‑month Brent fell to $94.79 per barrel, a drop of more than 4% from the previous day's high of $103.87. He attributed the sell‑off to growing diplomatic momentum, including potential U.S.–Iran talks...
US Diesel Prices Surge Post‑Iran War to 87th Percentile
U.S. RETAIL DIESEL prices including applicable taxes have averaged $5.61 per gallon so far this month up from $3.72 in February before the outbreak of the war with Iran and $3.52 in January. Inflation-adjusted prices have surged into the 87th...
India Gets Fertilizer Offers Near $1,000 as War Stokes Costs
India’s latest urea tender, the world’s largest nitrogen‑fertilizer buyer, received bids hovering around $1,000 per metric ton. More than two dozen suppliers, including Aramco Trading Co. and Ameropa Asia, submitted offers as the conflict in Iran pushes global fertilizer costs...
Gold Edges Lower As Dollar Stabilizes Ahead Of Possible US-Iran Peace Talks
Gold prices slipped from a one‑month high as the U.S. dollar regained ground ahead of possible US‑Iran peace talks in Pakistan. Spot gold fell 0.8% to $4,800.98 per ounce, while June gold futures dropped 0.6% to $4,823.15. The dollar index...
PGMs, China’s Stockpiling Spur Mining Production Leap, Minerals Council Reports
South Africa’s mining sector posted a 9.7% year‑on‑year production rise in February 2026, propelled by a 52.3% surge in platinum‑group metals (PGMs) and Chinese stockpiling of chrome and manganese. Total mineral sales jumped 58.3% YoY to R78.6 billion (≈$4.1 billion), led by...
Gold and Commodities Are Set to Soar
Gold and silver appear to have found a floor and are climbing, driven by a broader rally in commodities. The surge follows the United States’ naval blockade in the Sea of Oman, which threatens the supply of base metals, sulphuric...
Oil Prices Inch Higher After A Two-Day Slump
Oil prices rebounded on Wednesday after a two‑day slump, with Brent crude climbing to $96.18 a barrel (+1.5%) and WTI to $92.40 (+1.2%). The previous declines were sparked by an International Energy Agency warning that sustained high prices could curb...
Japan's Chemicals Sector Likely to Reduce Coal Demand
Japan’s petrochemical industry is expected to trim its thermal‑coal imports as a slowdown in naphtha‑fed cracker output reduces fuel needs. Major producers such as Mitsui Chemicals and Idemitsu have already cut production, while the sector’s annual coal demand of roughly...
Energy Supply Disruptions From Middle East War to Persist, IEA and IMF Warn
The International Energy Agency, International Monetary Fund and World Bank warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict will keep global oil and gas markets disrupted, even if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes. The shock is described as substantial,...
Iran War Pushes Global Food Markets Toward Crisis Mode
The Iran‑Israel conflict is tightening the Strait of Hormuz, choking a key route for oil and agricultural inputs. The IMF and OECD warn that the resulting energy shock could push global inflation above 7% and shrink growth to around 2%,...
Eramet's Nickel Quota Slashed 70%, Threatening Indonesian Supply
Eramet’s Weda Bay Nickel received a 70pc lower 2026 quota, raising new concerns over Indonesian ore supply. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/eramet-weda-bay-nickel-quota-cut-raises.html
Australia to Import 1.6mn Bl Gasoline From Europe
Australia is arranging to import roughly 1.6 million barrels of non‑oxy gasoline from Europe to shore up its dwindling fuel reserves. A price premium of over $34 per barrel in Singapore relative to Europe opened a lucrative arbitrage window, prompting shipments...
IMF Says Strait of Hormuz Closure Raises Prospect of ‘Major Energy Crisis’ – Video
The IMF warned that a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz would spark a major energy crisis, pushing oil prices sharply higher. Chief economist Pierre‑Olivier Gourinchas outlined an adverse scenario with rising inflation and tighter financial conditions, and a severe...
Deutsche Bank Flags Brent Futures Dip Below $100, Hinting at Energy Stock Rally
Deutsche Bank analysts reported Brent crude slipping below $100 per barrel, with the 6‑month future at $83.55 and the 12‑month at $78.57. The downward‑sloping curve suggests markets view the Middle‑East flare‑up as temporary, a signal that could spark momentum trades...
Much Chatter that Iran Talks to Resume as Ceasefire Extension Discussed
U.S. enforcement of its blockade on Iranian ports showed full compliance in the first 24 hours, with no vessels breaching the restrictions. At the same time, more than 20 oil tankers have recently transited the Strait of Hormuz, signaling a...
Bloom Energy's Oracle Deal Spurs Scandium Boom
Congratulations to Bloom Energy $BE on their deal with Oracle The koala is absolutely thrilled to see the demand growth trajectory for bloom boxes inflect higher and higher 4kg per 100kw scandium density (Gemini screenshot below) is ~40 tonnes per GW Let’s...
Brazil Conditions Rare Earth Deal Amid US‑China Competition
China and the US want rare earths. Brazil will share – on one condition Move comes as Washington locks US$565 million deal with Brazil’s only operating rare earth mine https://t.co/iQo2RjLACX via @scmpnews
Cutting Qatar and UAE LNG Rewinds Market Five Years
Removing Qatar and UAE LNG supplies from the global market is like winding back the clock to the same supply levels as 2021, a 5-year setback. https://t.co/zj6XaND0zQ
Peace Talks Cut Oil Prices, War Premium Vanishes
$USO $WTI crude dropped from $104 to $93 on Apr 14 as peace talks advanced and the IEA slashed its oil demand outlook — expecting an 80kb/d contraction this year. War premium evaporating in real time. https://t.co/2vKFARGwFk
EU Allows Fuel, Fertilizer Price Flexibility Amid Iran Conflict
EU to give members leeway on fuel, fertilizer prices amid Iran war https://t.co/vDWd0WFUXl via @johnainger @AlbertoNardelli https://t.co/GeUMkkLivE
NYC Traders Set Global Coffee Prices From Small Room
☕️“The people who gather in this small room on the eighth floor of the New York Stock Exchange look like a group of middle-aged caffeine addicts. ... Their ratings help set U.S. futures-market prices for arabica, and in turn, the global...
Diesel Prices Near 2022 Peak, Close to 2008 High
Real diesel price now within 90 cents of the 2022 peak and $1.65 from the 2008 high (using monthly closing prices) @jkempenergy https://t.co/sCJ6D7sfbJ
Pakistan to Impose Evening Rolling Blackouts Amid LNG Shortage
Pakistan plans more rolling blackouts due to a fuel shortage 🇵🇰⚠️ Power supply will be suspended for two hours during the evenings when demand rises Pakistan hasn't received an LNG shipment since early March due to the war in the Middle...
Japan Pledges $10 B to Fuel Southeast Asia
Japan will provide as much as $10 billion in financial support to Southeast Asian countries to help them buy oil 🇯🇵🤝🛢️ This is the biggest effort yet to help cash-strapped developing nations deal with fuel shortages (This benefits Japan. SE Asia key to...