Know What's Happening in Commodities
Know What's Happening in Commodities
OPEC+ agrees to modest oil quota increase amid Middle East war
OPEC+ members agreed in principle to raise oil production quotas for May by roughly 206,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia and Russia led the video‑conference decision as the conflict in the Middle East constrains output and shipments. Delegates said the move signals alliance cohesion despite the geopolitical shock.
Also developing:
Kuwait Petroleum Corporation announced it will begin throttling oil production as domestic storage fills, a precautionary step ahead of potential forced shutdowns. The move follows Iran’s recent attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, which have severely constrained tanker availability, and mirrors Iraq’s drastic cuts from 4.3 million to 1.3 million barrels per day due to storage constraints. KPC says domestic supply remains secure and production can be restored once conditions improve. Analysts warn that continued disruptions could push Brent toward $150 per barrel and force GCC exporters into force majeure.
The national average of gasoline prices is up 45 cents since the war began last week, or a 15.12% increase. This is the second largest increase in the last two decades, depending on the measure you choose (dollar or percentage). All things...
The Strait of Hormuz is shut. So what's a catalyst for oil prices to fall and not rise as everyone's now saying? The most obvious thing would be the collapse of Iran's regime, the odds of which are rising every...
Goldman Sachs warned that global oil prices could breach $100 a barrel within days and climb to $150 by month‑end if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Iran’s effective blockade has cut crude flows through the strait to roughly 10%...
US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright: “… The oil is there […] You’re seeing a little bit of fear premium in the marketplace. But the world is not short of oil today or natural gas…” (Not sure this verbal massaging is...
On the oil production shut in: By curbing oil output early, Persian Gulf nations are trying to lengthen the time before they reach full storage. Their plan is to try to keep output low but running — avoiding full shutdowns. The former...
Anas Alhajji warns that the escalating Iran war could push oil prices to unprecedented levels, potentially driving Brent above $120 per barrel. He cites a likely sharp reduction in Iranian output and limited OPEC spare capacity as key supply constraints....
A recent video analysis highlights a sharp oil price shock, driven by escalating Middle‑East tensions, that pushed crude above 10% in a single week. Simultaneously, the market for exchange‑grade silver bars is tightening, with inventories down roughly 15% as industrial...
China imports crude oil based on the day, between 65 and 85% of its total, and about three-quarters of that comes specifically from the Persian Gulf. And that has now dropped to zero. Unlike countries like the United States, which...
The diesel surge is welcome news for freight brokers that have contracted freight. Fuel surcharges will provide a lot of relief, as the diesel surge is moving much quicker than trucking spot rates. Brokers will make a couple of percent on fuel...
The sudden closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted roughly 700 oil cargoes, representing about $40 billion in trade, and exposed the vulnerability of Europe’s post‑2022 energy strategy. Simultaneously, Russia warned it could exit the European market before any formal ban,...
NQ drops 200 points on the open with a wide gap WTI above $100 for first time since 2022 24,000 will likley tested as sentiment sours over expanding conflict in Iran Prepare to hear doomsday all day long on talking head TV
Crude >$100 I’d say here we go, but honestly can’t believe we’re still going. https://t.co/14yKcmsMOq
The sudden closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered a rapid surge in urea prices, prompting sell‑side analysts to recommend buying North American nitrogen producers such as CF Industries, Nutrien and Mosaic. The logic hinged on the fact that roughly...
WTI > $104 RBOB not up as much, but it crossed $3.. implying $3.95 at the pump in due time. https://t.co/yLhu2NxY1C
How the US-Israel-Iran War Impacts Oil, Gas, and US Stocks | Anas Alhajj... https://t.co/ZnJKFSYWCr via @YouTube
Kuwait’s state‑owned oil company KPC announced a precautionary cut to crude output and refinery runs after the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut down oil exports amid escalating conflict between the US, Israel and Iran. The firm issued a force majeure...
The low level of active US oil and gas rigs indicate a quick ramp in production is unlikely without sustained high oil prices and higher E&P company share prices. https://t.co/GDCcOHcEBE
📈New-crop CBOT corn & soybeans marked new annual highs on Friday, both surpassing the 2025 highs. But could even higher prices come beyond March? Dec corn hasn't set its annual high in March since 1999, soybeans haven't since 2004. https://t.co/gfh7zbFw5j
Kuwait's state‑owned oil company KPC announced a precautionary cut to crude production and refinery runs after the Strait of Hormuz became effectively closed following U.S. and Israeli air strikes on Iran. In February, Kuwait produced 2.59 million barrels per day, with...
The volume of crude production that Iraq has *already* shut-in is larger than the peak of *feared* [but never realized] Russian supply loss in early 2022 that spiked crude prices above $120 per barrel.
BAGHDAD, March 8 (Reuters) - Iraqi oil production from its main southern oilfields has fallen by 70% to just 1.3 million barrels per day as the country is unable to export oil via the Strait of Hormuz due to...
Gold prices have surged 47.6% since August 2025, reaching $5,092 per ounce, as central banks shift from Treasury securities to gold. The United States and Germany now report gold comprising over 80% of their reserve portfolios, with Italy and India also...
This galaxy brain it’s-all-about-China’s-oil talking point drives me *insane* Only reason China was able to buy so much discounted crude from Ven/Irn/Ruz was because of US sanctions, largely imposed by the Trump admin(!), which scared off other buyers and left them...
Nice one from @greg_ip of @WSJ on the potential impacts on the spike in oil. https://t.co/FcZEQltWw3
JPM: "If the oil supply shock is sustained, we think each 10% increase in oil prices should translate to a ~10bp gain in headline PCE inflation and a 15-20bp drag on GDP growth."
Fertilisers are rightfully getting a lot of focus now. China looks to be ok (for now). The state has stockpiles and there is material at ports. Exports of urea (nitrogen-based) were already tightly managed and it's hard to see more...
We already know the winner in the war with Iran and that's Russia. The closure of the Straits of Hormuz has swung Russian crude from pariah to prized commodity. Urals oil price is the highest since right after the Ukraine...
Friday marked a turning point. Brent rose 9% (CO1), but - instead of a broad sell-off across EM - South Africa (ZAR), Brazil (BRL) and Chile (CLP) rallied. Markets are transitioning to rewarding commodity exporters like in 2022 after the...
“The US is roughly speaking oil independent… on net, we export petroleum products.” That’s why this is less an ‘America is poorer’ story than an ‘Americans reshuffle who wins’ story. Oil industry wins. Drivers lose. https://t.co/Efd22aQEeK
Brace yourself - energy prices may well rise quite a bit higher than last week. https://t.co/PwzU61UTCt
South Korea is considering to introduce an oil price cap for the first time in 30 years 🇰🇷 🛢️ It is being considered carefully because of possible side effects including market distortions and fiscal burdens, according to Yonhap https://t.co/r66h5y13D6
"Texas Feedlot Operators Explain Why U.S. Beef Supply Depends on Mexican Cattle Imports" https://t.co/D3IHviRfRg https://t.co/fO9Ac9MceR
Looks like the start of a beautiful “oil glut” partnership between the IEA and the Trump administration. Markets may have other ideas. #OilMarkets #EnergyPolicy #IEA #Geopolitics #EnergySecurity https://t.co/IPd77wk6Q7
Claims that the world is “well supplied with oil” during a Hormuz crisis are obviously false @SecScottBessent With 35% of maritime oil flows offline, your comments are at best out-of-touch with reality. At worst, they're lies #OilMarkets #Hormuz #EnergySecurity #IranWar #Geopolitics
Map of average diesel prices by market (updated each morning). SFO has the highest at $5.96/gallon https://t.co/DgH7FMrsx0
U.S. natural gas 12-month spread narrowed $0.15 (24%) on higher front-month price May contract rose $0.32 (11%) from $2.88 to $3.20 week ending March 6 Front-month price increased $0.33 (11%) from $2.86 to $3.19 #energy #NaturalGas #shale #fintwit #oilandgas #Commodities #ONGT #natgas #LNG
So the longer the Iran conflict lasts... 1. The longer oil prices are higher 2. The longer the Trump admin allows Russian oil to be sold without sanctions 3. The more financial firepower Russia has to support Iran to prolong the conflict ...rinse and...
$Silver - Had a bearish reversal at the yearly R1 pivot and ended the week with a bearish engulfing candle. The Odds favor further downside to the 20 week MA as it had after the January top. In any case,...
🚨 WEEK 2 OF THE IRAN WAR — MARKET OUTLOOK Trump posted "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER" on Truth Social. No ceasefire. No off-ramp. The Strait of Hormuz is shut. Oil just had its biggest weekly gain in futures trading HISTORY (+35%). And the...
The war in Iran has caused the biggest disruption in oil production in history. Whether it becomes the long-feared “nightmare scenario” for energy markets (and the global economy) now depends on the duration of the conflict. My @FT column: https://t.co/uKMsVXBCQY
Chinese PV Industry Brief: Polysilicon prices slide amid low operating rates #energysky -- via pv magazine global: https://t.co/JsM63FU7l1
Sensitivity to OIL price spikes JPMAM Sensitivity to GAS price spikes China is more insulated on both charts than you might have suspected https://t.co/OJm0FMOcmF
Something really unusual happened yesterday. While oil was pushing above $90 per barrel, the Dollar fell. That's very significant because we'd normally expect to see the oil spike drive the Dollar higher. We've transitioned back into a weak Dollar world... https://t.co/2nXDj5db75...
STRAIT OF HORMUZ re-opening is central to any effort to prevent another spike in oil prices: https://t.co/hWRuSylzaC
$Gold - Surprisingly, despite the war in the middle east it closed the week lower. However, it held above the yearly R1 pivot at 5043, and unless it closes below it next week I still expect gold to make a...
Not this shit again. 1st of all, this oil spike isn't more acute than 2022. In 2022 crude oil reached $129. Currently it's at $91 only. Secondly ,every time SPX is down 1%+ on Friday the usual suspects come up...
Am re-upping this. 🚀 Brent settled >$92 on Friday. 🚀 Middle East marker crudes are at $100 levels. 🚀 Middle distillates are deep into triple-digit territory. Without an immediate, credible halt to hostilities, oil has only one direction to go. Guess...
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: The US reverses course. First, the US placed 25% “penalty tariffs” on India for buying Russian crude. Now, the US has granted a 30-day waiver that will allow India to buy Russian oil. MODI’S STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY REIGNS SUPREME. https://t.co/zWsRpg2QtK
What’s interesting about this is that electricity, gas, oil, jet fuel and gasoline prices are all higher today than a year ago.
