Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Winter Wheat Rallies as Corn Holds, Soybeans Steady and Cotton Prices Surge
Winter wheat futures surged this week, with soft red wheat up 18.5 cents and hard red wheat up 45 cents, while corn and soybeans traded sideways. Cotton prices kept climbing, driven by tight supplies and a weakening dollar, highlighting shifting supply‑demand dynamics across agricultural commodities.
SBI Forecasts India’s FY27 Growth at 6.8%‑7.1% Amid Oil Price Shock
State Bank of India (SBI) projects India’s economy to expand 6.8%‑7.1% in fiscal year 2027, defying the drag from a recent oil price shock. The forecast, released on April 20, 2026, underscores a robust macro‑economic environment that could shape budgeting,...
Oil Falls as Investors Assess Mixed Messaging on Iran Peace Talks Ahead of Ceasefire Deadline
Oil prices slipped on Tuesday as investors weighed mixed signals from the United States and Iran ahead of a looming cease‑fire deadline. Vice President JD Vance is expected to head a U.S. delegation to Pakistan, while Iran’s parliamentary speaker warned...
Wagyu Numbers Ease
Australia’s feedlot sector trimmed its average days on feed from 164 days in 2024 to 155 days by the end of 2025. The shift was driven by a 25% drop in Wagyu cattle on feed, falling from over 300,000 head...
Corn Futures Slip 1‑2¢ as Traders Trim Net Longs, Export Commitments Rise 29%
Corn futures opened lower by 1‑2¢ on Monday, while managed money cut 59,149 contracts from its net long position, leaving a net long of 159,483 contracts. Export commitments rose 29% year‑over‑year to 72.79 MMT, pushing traders to reassess hedges.
Cocoa Futures Jump Over 3% on Hormuz Closure Fears, Short Positions Hit 3-Year High
Cocoa futures surged 3.5% on Monday after Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz closure, pushing NY contracts up 112 points and London contracts up 80 points. The rally coincided with funds' net short positions climbing to a three‑year peak of...
Spirit Airlines Requests Hundreds of Millions in Bailout as Jet Fuel Prices Surge 95%
Spirit Airlines has asked the Trump administration for a emergency bailout worth hundreds of millions of dollars after jet fuel prices jumped nearly 95% following the Iran conflict, jeopardizing its restructuring plan and raising the risk of liquidation. The carrier,...
Oil Pullback Ends Trade Narrative, Sparks Low‑Price Speculation
When a trade suffers the kind of pullback oil has now seen, it's over. A trade is just a story. It needs excitement and momentum. That's out the window and has been replaced by people asking how low oil prices...
Why the Most Important Food Prices Are Rising Again
Canadian grocery inflation rose to 4.4% in March, outpacing the headline 4% CPI figure. Meat prices surged—beef up 12.7%, chicken 7.5%, pork 6.2%—as herd reductions and higher feed costs tighten supply. Vegetable prices also jumped, with cucumbers up 28.4% and...
Chile to US Fruit Trade Down
Cool Carriers, the world’s largest reefer vessel operator, posted strong results for the 2025/26 summer season despite a sharp decline in Chilean fruit export demand to the United States. The subsidiary moved 260,000 pallets of cherries, blueberries, grapes and stone...
Jet Fuel Shipments Tank; Global Supply In-Transit Plunges 60%
Global jet and kerosene fuel volumes in transit by tanker have fallen 60% since March 1, 2026, with European‑bound shipments plunging 80%, according to Kpler data. The drop reflects tighter refinery output and shifting demand patterns. Industries that rely on just‑in‑time delivery...
Spot Prices Wrap: Cash Climbs as Natural Gas Demand, Supply Indicators Trend Bullish
Natural gas futures posted a fourth consecutive session of modest gains as cooler weather and robust LNG exports lifted demand, while U.S. storage reports show a growing surplus. Traders remain cautious amid lingering geopolitical tension from the Iran‑U.S. conflict, which...
MAJOR BANKS PREDICT SILVER PRICE EXPLOSION: The Sentiment Reset, the Unsolvable Deficit, the Byproduct Trap, the Historic Demand Stack, &...
Silver has settled into a tight $70‑$80 range, creating a solid technical base after a parabolic rally. The sideways action reset market sentiment, flushing out speculative hands and leaving a coiled chart ready for a breakout. Physical fundamentals are tightening,...
California’s Oil Decline Forces Costly Imports and Shortages
For a mix of reasons, California has decimated its local oil production. As a result, it’s now producing only about 300,000 barrels a day. But as the economy grows and the population expands, oil demand continues to rise. The state...
Oil Prices Rise After Trump Says Iranian Ship Seized
Global oil markets surged after President Donald Trump announced the U.S. Navy seized an Iran‑flagged cargo vessel, pushing Brent crude over 4% to $94.20 a barrel. The move follows Iran’s decision to close the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that...
Seaborne Crude Oil Shipments Plunge 16% as Iran War Chokes Strait of Hormuz
BIMCO reports that global seaborne crude oil shipments have dropped 16% since the Iran war began, trimming daily volumes by 7.6 million barrels to 38.4 mbpd. The decline reflects the near‑closure of the Strait of Hormuz and limited offsetting exports from other...
Australian S&P/ASX 200 Trims Early Losses to 8,941.40 Amid Miner Weakness and Tech Gains
The S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.06% to 8,941.40, trimming early losses after two days of decline. Weakness in iron‑ore and energy stocks was partly offset by gains in gold miners and technology firms, underscoring a tactical shift among regional investors.
Crude Surges On Renewed Hormuz Fears
Oil and gas markets surged on April 20 as renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz threatened to choke a quarter of global energy flows. Brent crude jumped 5.6% to about $95.50 a barrel and WTI rose 6.9% to $89.61,...
Futures Settle: Natural Gas Extends Quiet Winning Streak as LNG, Cool Temps Boost Demand
Natural‑gas futures posted a fourth straight session of modest gains as the market balanced comfortable supply with supportive demand cues. Midwest storage inventories remain below seasonal norms, heightening sensitivity to weather‑driven price moves ahead of the refill period. LNG feed‑gas...
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
Grain futures rallied on Monday, with wheat leading the charge as drought concerns in the U.S. Plains and reports of field abandonment tightened supplies. Corn followed wheat’s upward trend, buoyed by the same weather worries, while soybeans lagged due to...
Europe Could Run Out of Jet Fuel in Six Weeks
The International Energy Agency warns that Europe could exhaust its jet‑fuel supplies within six weeks as the Iran‑Houthi conflict tightens the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 75% of the continent’s net oil imports come from the Middle East, and the disruption...
Daily Energy Report
EU LNG imports surged to a record 10.17 million tons in March 2026, a 10% month‑on‑month increase. The United States dominated the supply mix, providing 55.7% of all EU LNG cargoes, while Russia’s share slipped to 17.9% ahead of a planned ban....
LNG Demand Seen Rising on European Cold Snap, but Asian Weakness Keeps Gains in Check
A brief cold snap across Northwest Europe is expected to boost LNG demand over the next two weeks, offsetting the otherwise mild weather patterns in the United States that are dampening domestic gas consumption. While the European uptick adds upward...
Oil Flows Through Hormuz Won’t Normalize Until July
Rystad Energy says it will take until July for roughly normal flows through the Strait of Hormuz "Our analysis shows that it would take until July for oil flows to normalize to some 80-90% of pre-war production levels, and another 1-2...
Rio Tinto Trying to Meet U.S. Aluminum Demand as Middle East War Roils Supply Chains – by Nicolas Van Praet...
Rio Tinto is ramping up production at its six Canadian aluminum smelters to satisfy rising U.S. demand as the Israel‑Iran conflict drives global aluminum prices higher. The Saguenay, Quebec facilities and the Kitimat, B.C. plant are already near full capacity,...
Iran War’s Sulfurous Fallout Spreads to Copper and Nickel – by Andy Home (Reuters – April 17, 2026)
The Iran‑Israel conflict has choked sulfur flow from the Gulf after the Strait of Hormuz closed on Feb. 28, triggering a global sulfur squeeze. Sulfuric acid, essential for solvent‑extraction copper and HPAL nickel processes, is now scarce as China, the world’s...
The Mineral Imperative, Trump, and The Art of the Deal – by Amanda Van Dyke (Substack – April 19, 2026)
Amanda van Dyke argues that while the United States has long relied on China for critical minerals, a new wave of legislation is reshaping the "mineral imperative" and strengthening domestic supply chains. Recent policies, including the Critical Minerals Act, aim...
Soybeans Trading with Fractional Gains on Monday
Soybean futures posted modest gains on Monday, with new‑crop contracts up 3 cents and the cash bean price edging to $11.03 per bushel. Export inspections showed shipments of 748,678 metric tonnes for the week ending April 16, a 33.7% year‑over‑year rise,...
Corn Higher at Monday’s Midday
Corn futures rose 3‑5 cents in the front months on Monday, with the CmdtyView cash corn price climbing to $4.165 per bushel. USDA’s FGIS reported 1.669 MMT of corn exports for the week ending April 16, a 2.89% increase from the prior...
Cotton Continuing Higher at Midday
Cotton futures gained between 35 and 46 cents by midday, extending a broader rally. Managed money flipped its stance, moving from a net short of 18,845 contracts to a net long of 16,825 contracts—the first net long in almost two...
Wheat Posting Monday Gains
Wheat futures posted modest gains on Monday, with Chicago SRW up 10‑12 cents, Kansas City HRW up 6‑7 cents, and Minneapolis spring wheat up 3‑4 cents. Export inspections showed 518,141 metric tons shipped in the week of April 16, a...
LNG Canada Nearing Full Capacity as Iran War Squeezes Global Supply
LNG Canada is set to operate at full capacity in April, loading about 15 cargoes per month. The plant’s 14.6 mtpa output will primarily serve Asian buyers as global LNG supplies tighten due to the Iran conflict. Rising demand for North...
Zambia’s Major Copper Smelters Face Extended Shutdowns, Raising Supply Concerns
Zambia’s two largest copper smelters, Mopani and Chambishi, will undergo unusually long maintenance periods later this year, with Mopani slated for a 40‑45‑day shutdown and Chambishi for roughly two months. The extended outages will sharply curtail domestic sulphuric acid production,...
Airlines Slash U.S. Routes as Jet Fuel Spikes to $200 per Barrel
Major carriers are trimming U.S. schedules and raising fees after jet fuel prices jumped from $85‑$90 to $150‑$200 a barrel, a move that could reshape route management and cost structures across the industry.
Helium Shortage Threatens Global Memory Chip Production
A cascade of helium supply shocks—from Qatar's Ras Laffan plant outage to heightened Middle East tensions—has left memory‑chip makers scrambling. With South Korea sourcing 65% of its helium from Qatar and TSMC holding limited inventories, a prolonged shortage could choke DRAM...
War Premium Mispriced Both Ways, Market Clings to Wrong Script
The war premium trade is mispriced in BOTH directions. US seized an Iranian ship Sunday night. Ceasefire expires tomorrow. WTI jumped 5.5% to $88. And yet defense stocks are RED today — LMT -1.3%, RTX -0.3%, NOC -0.8%. The market is still...
EIA Predicts Hormuz Crisis Will Vanish by Fall
Hormuz Crisis: Gone by Spring, Fixed by Fall says EIA “It’s going to disappear. "One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear” #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/SIU7yJyfMK
Florida Gasoline Prices Dip Below $4 per Gallon Amid Regional Decline
Florida's average gasoline price fell to $3.99 per gallon on April 20, slipping below the $4 mark for the first time in weeks. The dip, driven by double‑digit weekly declines and regional price spreads, offers temporary relief to drivers but...
UK to Lower Green Power Costs by Cutting Gas Exposure
The UK will seek to speed up efforts to cut the costs of green electricity by reducing exposure to more-expensive gas https://t.co/LNvTUk7yXd
EIA's 2027 Oil Glut Forecast Is Pure Fantasy
Independent FED? How about an independent EIA? EIA Sees an oil glut in 2027 The Year Everything Magically Normalizes Brent $68 In a World That Doesn’t Exist OUTRAGEOUSLY ENERGY BLIND #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/EEhRs5OdkI
Inflation Jumps to 2.4% in March Driven by Iran War Oil Shock, StatCan Says
Canada’s annual inflation rose to 2.4% in March, driven by a record 21.2% monthly jump in gasoline prices after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Without fuel, inflation would have been 2.2%, marking a second consecutive decline. The federal government’s...
Oil Surge Pushes Brazil Real Toward 4.50/USD
We're on our way to $/BRL 4.50. Oil prices aren't going to fall back to pre-war levels quickly, which lifts Brazil's terms of trade and the Real. I'm moving my posts behind a paywall in coming months. Please consider subscribing...
Extended Ceasefire Leaves 182M Barrels Off Market
Important to remember that, with 13 MMbpd in oil production still shut-in across the Gulf, a two week ceasefire extension with no change to the status of Hormuz means another 182 million barrels lost to the market. *Poof* Sooner or later that's...
Govt Doubles Down on Wheat Exports, Clears Extra 2.5 Million Tonnes
The Indian government approved an additional 2.5 million metric tonnes of wheat for export, raising the total wheat export quota to 5 million tonnes and wheat‑product quota to 1 million tonnes. The move follows a robust production outlook—120 million tonnes projected for 2025‑26 and...
Iran Risk Unpriced Amid High Oil, Demand Lag Threatens
Iran risk is not priced in from elevated oil prices or supply shocks. @HFI_Research wrote about lags that trigger potential demand hit if prolonged.
US
🇺🇸U.S. winter wheat conditions fell below all trade estimates to 30% good/excellent. That's approaching 2022 & 2023, among the lowest scoring years in recent memory. Despite some wet weather, U.S. corn & bean planting pace met expectations and remain ahead of...
Exporting Surplus Won’t Lower Pump Prices
Exporting the zero excess we have is not going to be helping prices at the pump.
Stocks Must Remain Strong to Shield Crude From Gas Slide
Stocks May Need to Stay Up for Crude Oil Not to Follow US Natural Gas Down https://t.co/TLsVGd92SK #crudeoil @BBGIntelligence
Oil Drops Post‑war, Gasoline Lagging Behind, Says Weatherall
"Oil prices have fallen from their peak after weeks of war have choked off the Persian Gulf, but gasoline prices are likely to descend more slowly. One of the reasons is Alex Weatherall." Very good lede and story @lydiadepillis https://t.co/xBuWzYaRt5
Wheat Exports Surpass USDA Target Pace by 40M Bushels
Marketing year to date #wheat export shipments exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 40 million bushels, versus 44 million bushels the previous week. The wheat marketing year ends on May 31. #oatt