Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Europe’s Electricity Prices Remain Tied to Gas Amid Geopolitical Risks
Europe’s power markets remain tightly coupled to natural‑gas prices, a linkage amplified by recent geopolitical tensions such as the 2026 Iran war. Gas price spikes quickly translate into higher electricity costs, especially in Italy and Germany where gas sets the marginal price despite representing only 18‑20% of EU generation. Countries with strong nuclear or renewable mixes, like France and Spain, experience weaker price correlations, while the broader EU still depends on LNG for roughly 48% of its gas imports, exposing the bloc to global market volatility.
Early Demand‑destruction Estimates Underestimate Global Barrel Shifts
I still personally struggle with these early demand destruction estimates. In many cases, a demanded barrel couldn’t be had at any price given acute initial shortages—presumably those who would still consume at higher prices will bid for other seaborne barrels, spreading...
US‑Canada Crude Surplus Could Drive Prices Toward $40
Lower Prices May Be Top Cure for US+Canada Surplus The recent WTI crude oil surge may add fuel to an incomplete low-price-cure cycle toward $40 a barrel. My graphic highlights a key reason why: the growing surplus in US and Canadian...
Moroccan Tomato Growers Urged to Help Alleviate Domestic Supply Crisis
Morocco faces a severe shortage of round tomatoes after a February storm devastated greenhouses and compounded existing phytosanitary issues. Authorities have met with growers, urging them to divert more produce to the domestic market rather than export. While cherry tomato...
Corn Near $5 Ceiling; Gas Pump‑Dump May Pull to $4
Technical Outlook - Corn vs. $5 Ceiling and Pump-Then-Dump Pattern From Natural Gas Corn's low in this down cycle might not yet be in. December corn revisited threshold resistance near $5 a bushel in 1Q, alongside crude oil's surge to about...
December Corn Likely Slides Toward $4.30
December Corn May Lean Toward $4.30 vs. Above $5 New-crop December (Dec26) corn, at about $4.80 a bushel on April 20, may have a greater propensity to extend its life-of-contract low near $4.39 than to stay above the high of around...
Agronometrics in Charts: Extreme Weather Sparks Stunning 32 Percent Surge in US Strawberry Prices
U.S. strawberry grower prices surged 32% in January 2026 as extreme weather disrupted supply chains. Production topped 2.6 billion pounds, with California providing roughly 90% of domestic output. Late‑2025 heavy rains and early‑2026 Florida freezes cut shipments, while imports hit a...
Energy Producing States Face Volatile Oil Prices
Oil prices surged above $114 per barrel in early March, the highest level since 2022, after the Iran‑Israel conflict ignited market volatility. The spike lifted revenue streams for oil‑producing states, especially Texas and New Mexico, whose 10‑year growth rates exceed the...
Bring On the Jet Fuel Shortages
Peter Zeihan warns that even if the Iran ceasefire holds, a months‑long global jet‑fuel shortage is already baked in. The shutdown of medium‑heavy sour crude production in Kuwait, Iraq and Saudi Arabia—key feedstock for jet fuel—has removed the primary supply...
EU Mulls Fuel-Sharing as Airlines Juggle Costs and Capacity
EU transport ministers are debating a bloc‑wide jet‑fuel‑sharing scheme as Middle East tensions threaten both fuel prices and availability. Airlines such as Lufthansa CityLine have already suspended routes, while KLM plans to cut about 80 European return flights to protect...
Hormuz Crisis Drives Coal Surge, Lifts Dry Bulk Rates
Dry bulk freight rates poised to rise as Hormuz crisis bolsters coal demand ▶️A substitution effect could occur where power plants burn more coal instead of crude oil products or gas to mitigate rising costs ▶️One industry player expects dry bulk freight...
The Current Oil Shock Most Resembles the First Gulf War, Says UBS. What that Means for Prices.
UBS analysts say the present oil supply shock, triggered by the U.S. and Israel’s strikes on Iran, most closely mirrors the 1990‑91 Gulf War disruption. In the first two to three months, crude prices have surged nearly 100%, outpacing the...
Gold and Silver Prices Today: Prices Drop Tuesday, April 21
Gold June futures opened at $4,842.40 per ounce, marginally above Monday’s close, before slipping to $4,801.80 in early trade. Silver May futures opened at $79.85, then fell to $78.96. Both metals are holding near key psychological levels as geopolitical tension...
Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief
U.S. corn planting reached 11% last week, matching last year’s pace, while emergence is already 4% ahead of normal. Soybean planting jumped to 12%, outpacing the prior season by 5%. Winter wheat conditions remain weak, with only 30% rated good/excellent...
Strait of Hormuz Tensions Threaten Oil Shipping, Prompt Airline Cancellations
U.S. naval blockades and a disputed seizure of a Tehran‑flagged cargo ship have heightened the risk of a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, while jet‑fuel prices have jumped to $150‑$200 a barrel, forcing airlines to cancel flights and raise...
NATO Jet Fuel Network Strain Threatens European Airline Operations
NATO’s Central Europe Pipeline System is seeing heightened military demand, squeezing civilian jet fuel supplies and prompting airlines to brace for disruptions. Poland’s energy minister and IATA’s director warn of a “two‑speed” alliance and “sobering” outlook as fuel prices double.
Global Sugar: Record Output Across Brazil and India Keeps Prices Under Heavy Pressure
ICE White Sugar August 2026 futures slipped to $412.3 per tonne as record‑high output from Brazil, India and China swelled global supplies. India has already exceeded its full‑season forecast with 27.39 Mt and plans no export ban, while Brazil projects a...
Oil Spike Sends Futures Lower, Puts Nasdaq’s 13‑Day Rally at Risk
U.S. equity futures slipped after WTI crude surged $4.6 to $88.5 per barrel following renewed Iran‑U.S. tensions, threatening the Nasdaq Composite’s 13‑day winning streak. Large‑cap tech stocks led the decline, while energy shares rose and a $17 billion QXO‑TopBuild deal added...
Higher Fertiliser Costs Risk Lower-Protein Wheat
Higher fertilizer prices, spurred by volatile crude oil after the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict, are adding roughly $13 per tonne to UK wheat and $25 per tonne to rapeseed costs. Brent crude is about $20 above pre‑war levels, pushing fertilizer and energy...
USA Rare Earth Surges 15% After $2.8 Billion Serra Verde Acquisition
USA Rare Earth Inc. announced a $2.8 billion cash‑and‑stock deal to acquire Brazil’s Serra Verde Group, sending its Nasdaq‑listed shares up more than 15% to $22.97. The transaction adds a rare‑earth mine and processing plant that can produce 6,400 metric tons of...
European Electricity Prices Increase Despite Falling Gas Prices
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting reported that the weekly average electricity price topped €95 ($112)/MWh in most major European markets last week, except France, Portugal and Spain where prices hovered around €50‑€71 ($59‑$84)/MWh. Italy recorded the highest average at €123.19/MWh ($145), while...
Gold Dips Below $4800 Ahead Of Warsh's Confirmation Hearing
Gold slipped below $4,800 an ounce on Tuesday as investors weighed the looming expiration of a two‑week U.S.–Iran cease‑fire and the prospect of renewed peace talks in Pakistan. Spot gold fell 0.8% to $4,783.87, while U.S. gold futures dropped 0.6%...
‘Getting Off the Fossil Fuel Rollercoaster’: UK Sets Out Long-Awaited Measures to Decouple Gas and Electricity Prices
The UK government announced new measures aimed at weakening the link between gas and electricity prices, a relationship that currently drives electricity costs about 60% of the time through marginal pricing. The plan introduces voluntary long‑term fixed‑price contracts for low‑carbon...
Oil Prices Edge Lower As US-Iran Ceasefire Deadline Looms
Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday as hopes rose for fresh U.S.-Iran talks in Pakistan, with Brent crude slipping to $95.05 a barrel and WTI to $86.91. The decline was modest, capped by the International Energy Agency’s warning that the...
Don't Mistake Easing Oil Prices for Calm, Analyst Warns
Oil analyst Ole R. Hvalbye of SEB warned that Brent’s front‑month price, now around $95 per barrel, masks underlying volatility and supply risk. Over the past two weeks the contract has swung between $86 and $104, while dated Brent—a better...
Coffee Market Hits Supply Ceiling, Bulls Lose Momentum Again
ICE coffee C May 2026 futures slid 3.6% to 289.3¢ per pound, breaking a multi‑week consolidation band and extending a downtrend that began in January. The decline was driven by a convergence of bullish Brazil crop forecasts—up to 75.9 million bags—and...
Mideast Gulf War 'Locks In' Higher Fossil Fuel Cost: UN
The UN climate chief warned that the Middle‑East war has locked in higher fossil‑fuel prices for months, adding roughly $23.5 bn to Europe’s import bill. He described the surge as a "gut punch" that fuels stagflation, raising inflation while choking growth...
China’s Tsingshan Plans to Build Another Aluminium Smelter in Indonesia
Chinese aluminium giant Tsingshan announced plans to build a new $3 billion smelter at Weda Bay Industrial Park in Indonesia, with a planned annual capacity of 800,000 tonnes split into two phases. The project joins existing Tsingshan‑linked facilities that will together...
Australia Institute on Gaslighting; Risky Flood Proposal; GetUp and Hanson; STH BNK by Beulah
A Nationals senator is fact‑checking the Australia Institute’s claim that a 25% gas export tax could fund free university and childcare, as the federal government reconsiders a new gas tax. In New South Wales, the state faces backlash for proposing...
Gold Remains a Safe-Haven Investment – Heraeus
Gold’s safe‑haven status faced volatility in early 2026 as prices dropped following the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict, breaking key moving averages before rebounding after a cease‑fire announcement. Heraeus’ Precious Appraisal highlights an 11% increase in gold exploration spending to $6.15 bn, while noting...
Reading the 2026 Fuel Adjustment: A Middle-Class Story
Indonesia’s April 2026 fuel-price adjustment raised only select nonsubsidized grades—Pertamax Turbo, Dexlite and Pertamina Dex—while keeping Pertamax, the most common fuel, and the subsidized Pertalite unchanged. The move shields the poorest but shifts the burden to the middle class, whose...
Aluminium Recyclers Push for Duty Cut as Supply Tightens Globally
India imports 85% of its aluminium scrap and faces a 2.5% customs duty that raises costs for downstream users. Geopolitical tensions and the EU’s planned export curbs have tightened global scrap supplies, prompting the Material Recycling Association of India to...
Malaysia Consumes 700,000 Barrels of Oil a Day, Twice Its Daily Production, so Importing Still Needed – MoF
Malaysia consumes about 700,000 barrels of oil each day, roughly twice its domestic production of 350,000 barrels. To meet the shortfall, the country imports roughly 48% of its crude, with about 40% of those imports transiting the conflict‑affected Strait of...
The Forces of Scarcity Hitting Asia May Soon Spread Across the World
The United States and Israel’s war on Iran has triggered a rapid, region‑wide scarcity shock across the Asia‑Pacific. Jet fuel prices have doubled and air traffic has fallen by roughly a third, while manufacturers face fuel‑driven cuts to output, from...
Sadhbh O'Neill: The Simple Text Message that Helped France Reduce Its Electricity Usage by 10%
France’s grid operator launched the Ecowatt app, sending colour‑coded text alerts that prompted households to shift usage away from peak periods. The campaign, part of a 15‑point “energy sobriety” plan, trimmed electricity consumption by 10% in December 2022. Across the EU,...
Silver Leads Strong March Chinese Imports Across Metals
Chinese Imports & Exports for AU/AG/PA/PL in March. Silver stands out amongst the strong imports. Chart below
Rising Money Supply Fuels Precious Metals Surge and Inflation
The U.S. and global money supply is growing at an alarming rate, driving the precious metals bull market and contributing to persistently high inflation.
Philippines Wheat Demand Forecast to Fall as Higher Prices Bite
The United States Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service projects Philippine wheat demand to decelerate, rising only 2.2% to 7.05 Mt in the 2026‑27 marketing year after a modest 6.2% increase to 6.9 Mt this year. Higher global wheat prices, driven by...
Italy's Soaring Power Costs Expose Stubborn Gas Dependence
Italy rising power costs reveal gas reliance that’s hard to diversify https://t.co/gkD72hDglF via @Al_Brambilla https://t.co/lgz9odh4et
War Cuts 1bn Barrels, Threatening Recession if Hormuz Stays Closed
Oil market has experienced a loss of 1 billion barrels due to war, says Trafigura’s Rahim. Oil markets are one month away from tank bottoms AND a recession is possible if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for three more months,...
The Commodities Feed: Peace Talk Optimism Clouds Reality
Oil markets rallied on optimism that renewed US‑Iran peace talks could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but analysts warn the price gains under‑price the ongoing supply disruption. European gas prices remain low, with the Dutch TTF below €40/MWh despite a...
US Redirects Fertilizer Overseas Amid Iran War Price Surge
Uh oh: "US buyers redirect imported fertilizer overseas as Iran war drives up global prices" https://t.co/bQZvdTkA8z https://t.co/4gCpKe44yx
Canadian Steel Prices 40% Below U.S., Fully Disconnected
"Canadian [steel] pricing has 'completely disconnected' from the U.S., running at a '40% discount to U.S. pricing,'" 👀 https://t.co/RxOI4R1JE5 https://t.co/lMrgt4UWO4
De‑escalation, Not Manipulation, Drives Falling Oil Prices
This shock hasn't worked out the way alarmists made it out to be. De-escalation has meant oil futures (orange) have fallen and have pulled down the physical oil price (white) with them. This isn't manipulation or a sign of a...
Ukraine Drone Strikes Force Russia to Cut April Oil Output
April 21 (Reuters) - Russia was forced to reduce oil output in April due to Ukrainian drone attacks on ports and refineries, as well as a halt to crude supplies via the only remaining Russian oil pipeline to Europe, according...
Whale Bets $5.6M on Oil Drop Before Trump Speech
🚨 WHALE BET AGAINST OIL 🚨 A whale just opened a $5.6M OIL SHORT ahead of Trump’s speech today This isn’t random… Does he know something we don’t? https://t.co/1gzLAufWll
Russian Oil to India Near Record Levels Despite Sanctions Waiver
MOSCOW, April 21 (Reuters) - Russian oil sales to India are set to remain near record highs in April and May following a new U.S. sanctions waiver, and refiners have already secured much of their supply needs via non-sanctioned entities...
Equities Price AI; Oil Ignores Real Supply Shock
Equity markets have priced in AI, which might happen. Whereas, oil markets have NOT priced in what has already happened. ~ 1 billion barrels of oil has been lost to date… and oil prices are up only ~50%.
UK to Curb Gas Power with Fixed-Price CfDs
NEW: Details of UK govt plans to "break influence of gas on electricity prices" Carrot: Offer fixed-price "wholesale CfDs" to old renewables, replacing wholesale ££ but not RO top-up Stick: Higher windfall tax of 45–>55% on 1 July for old renewables/nuclear 1/3 https://t.co/zMNwT7DWGm
Russia to Supply China Gas at One‑third Cheaper than Europe
China is getting cheap natural gas from Russia 🇨🇳🤝🇪🇺 The Russian government expects to sell gas to China through 2029 at about a third less than the price paid by Europe (this includes Turkey) https://t.co/LgIAxNwHXq https://t.co/5t7y1oF7zy