Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Hochschild Rallies as Gold Price Surge Lifts Outlook
Hochschild Mining reported first‑quarter production of 75,600 gold‑equivalent ounces, surpassing analysts’ forecasts. The company’s average realized gold price jumped to $4,471 per ounce, a near‑40% increase from a year earlier, driving cash and equivalents to $412 million and net cash to $95 million. Management reaffirmed 2026 production and cost guidance while advancing the Monte Do Carmo and Royropata projects. Shares rose more than 3% in London, valuing the miner at about $4.6 billion.
Hochschild Rallies as Gold Price Surge Lifts Outlook
Hochschild Mining posted a strong first‑quarter, producing 75,600 gold‑equivalent ounces, ahead of the 69,200‑ounce consensus. Realized gold prices jumped 40% to $4,471 per ounce, lifting cash and equivalents to about $412 million and turning net cash positive at $95 million versus $23 million...
Trump Mulls US Financial Aid for UAE Amid Middle East Tensions
President Donald Trump told CNBC the United States is weighing financial assistance for the United Arab Emirates, an oil‑rich ally hit by Iranian retaliation. The proposal would draw on the Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund, which holds about $44 billion, and reflects...
Iran War Fossil Fuel Shock Drives Inflation to 3.3 per Cent
UK consumer price inflation jumped to 3.3% in March, the fastest rise in fuel costs in over three years. The surge is directly linked to the Iran‑related disruption of oil and gas supplies, as the conflict threatens the Strait of...
Oil Rises While Volatility Soars, Market Stays Skeptical
Crude oil futures #CL=F and volatility #OVX have been diverging the past 48 hours as Oil recovered from $80 to $90. OVX has kept climbing to 76 (+10%). Market isn't buying the calm.
US Pushes Mineral Price Floor, Threatens Tariffs on China
US wants club of countries to trade minerals at set minimum prices to protect their investments in mining/processing, and could hit outside producers — eg China — with steep tariffs or other barriers to prevent them driving down prices. by @Aime_Williams...
Gold Rebounds After US-Iran Ceasefire Extension
Gold rebounded 0.8% on Wednesday, trading at $4,757 an ounce after a 2% plunge the day before. The rally was sparked by President Trump’s unilateral extension of the US‑Iran ceasefire, robust US retail‑sales data, and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve...
U.S. Department of Justice Launches Criminal Probe Into Beef Industry Practices
The DOJ has opened a criminal investigation into the beef industry's pricing practices, focusing on concerns that packers may be manipulating cash‑less, formula‑driven pricing systems like gridding. Host Sean Haney explains that ranchers worry about reduced price discovery and packer...
Commodity Traders Post Windfall Gains Amid Iran Conflict-Driven Market Turmoil
Commodity trading houses are logging multi‑billion‑dollar gains as the Iran conflict fuels extreme volatility in oil, copper and gold markets. Vitol alone is estimated to have earned about $2 bn in the first quarter, while Trafigura, Gunvor and Mercuria report record‑level...
Gold and Silver Surge as Hochschild Helps London’s Mining Stocks Shine
Hochschild Mining reported a near‑40% year‑on‑year jump in its average realizable gold price to $4,471 per ounce, propelling its FTSE 250 shares up more than 2%. The miner also disclosed an average silver price of $89.8 per ounce, more than double...
South32 Pumps Aluminium Output to Seize High Prices
South32 is ramping up aluminium production to profit from a four‑year high LME price of $3,557 per tonne, driven by Middle East‑related supply disruptions. Its Hillside smelter in South Africa is operating near technical limits but still posted a 3%...
Interview with Asharq Bloomberg TV Dubai 22.04.2026
In a 22 April 2026 interview on Asharq Bloomberg TV, The Macro Butler warned that oil prices are as unreliable as central‑bank forecasts because the Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut by a naval blockade. He argued that the apparent stability of...
Gold Daily Call for April 22nd, 2026
Markets sold off on lingering U.S.–Iran cease‑fire uncertainty, then rallied sharply after fresh comments from former President Trump. Gold remains in a risk‑off correction, having bounced from a double‑bottom near $4,670. The metal could retest the $4,820 support zone, but...
Competition Keeping Lamb Prices High on Quality as Winter Beckons
Australian lamb prices remain firm despite a dip in market indicators, with quality lambs in Hamilton fetching $12‑$13 AUD/kg (about $8‑$9 USD/kg). Producers such as Coby Brewis sold 259 lambs at an average $340 AUD (~$224 USD) per head, while store lambs traded around...
Explainer: How the Iran War Oil and Gas Supply Shock Compares with Past Disruptions
The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have created the largest daily oil‑supply shock on record, wiping out more than 12 million barrels per day – about 11.5% of global demand. The disruption also slashed...
War in Iran 'Has Put up Our Fuel Bill by £100,000'
The US‑Iran war has driven UK diesel up 47.8 p per litre, adding roughly £100,000 ($125,000) to Wrings Transport’s fuel bill and pushing March costs £45,000 over budget. The haulier’s fuel surcharge passes the surge to retailers, contributing to a 3.3 %...
China, Russia Offer Discounted Gas, Bypass USD, Challenge Qatar
China and Russia building new natural gas pipelines to replace Nordstream. Asian countries being courted to buy natural gas at 40% discount to market rates. Won’t be priced in USD. Permanent shift from Qatar which will take years and billions...
Diet Coke Runs Dry in Indian Cities as Iran War Triggers Aluminium Can Shortage
Diet Coke is running out of stock in major Indian cities as the Iran war has choked the supply of aluminium beverage cans, the primary packaging for the diet soda. Importing cans from the UAE, Sri Lanka and Southeast Asia now...
Ceasefire's TACO Shock Highlights Hormuz's Market Impact
A real ceasefire would be a true TACO moment, writes @TheMichaelEvery A Suez-scale shock. Energy might dip short term, but who controls Hormuz matters more. Markets aren’t priced for either outcome. #Oil #Geopolitics #Hormuz
Iran Crisis: A Moment of Reckoning for European Aviation
The Iran‑related Middle East crisis has triggered a sharp rise in European airline ticket prices, with long‑haul fares climbing about $97 since the conflict began. The spike exposes the EU’s heavy reliance on imported fossil jet fuel—over 95% of which...
Fed Govt to Underwrite CSBP, Incitec Fertiliser Imports
The Australian federal government announced a partnership with CSBP and Incitec Pivot to underwrite fertilizer shipments, using Export Finance Australia’s Strategic Reserve powers. The deal follows similar arrangements with fuel firms and aims to lock in cargoes amid global supply...
Incitec Updates Supply Outlook Amid Middle East Fall-Out
Incitec Pivot, now part of ASX‑listed Ridley Corp, is offsetting Middle‑East fertilizer disruptions by sourcing urea from Indonesia and other regions, securing two cargoes in the Strait of Hormuz and arranging up to 250,000 tonnes from PT Pupuk Indonesia for 2024. The company...
Oil Has 22% Chance to Hit $130 by June
JUST IN: Oil has a 22% probability of reaching $130 by the end of June.
Hormuz Closure Triggers Battery Material Shortage
The Hormuz Closure Is Driving a Shortage of Battery Ingredients #energysky -- via Heatmap News https://t.co/qbM9aqdKdm https://t.co/1qVldYbwTl
Copper Prices Volatile as Tariff Fears and Energy Crisis Loom
Copper has entered a volatile phase, with LME prices hovering between $12,000 and $14,000 per tonne after a 60% rally earlier in the year. Tariff speculation, the Iran war and a looming sulphur shortage are pressuring both physical and financial...
Dollar Weakness Fuels 3%+ Oil Surge and Lifts LME Nickel and Alumina
The US dollar index slipped 0.16% to 98.06, prompting WTI crude to climb 4% and Brent up 3.78% overnight. Base‑metal markets responded, with LME nickel gaining 1.39% and the front‑month alumina contract rising 2.56%, highlighting the inverse relationship between the...
Pacific Nations Struggle as Global Fuel Crisis Hits Families
JUST IN: Pacific nations are battling a global fuel crisis, with governments scrambling for energy and families hit by restrictions and rising costs for food and healthcare.
Government Backs Fertiliser Imports, Farmers Gain Certainty, Taxpayers Take the Exposure
The Australian government has introduced an underwriting scheme to backstop fertilizer imports amid supply disruptions caused by tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. The policy guarantees losses for importers who lock in cargoes at high global prices, shifting downside risk...
Halliburton Sees Early US Oil Recovery, Just Beginning
JUST IN: Halliburton spots initial recovery in the US oil sector, declaring it's just beginning.
Market Morsel: Northern Premiums Ready to Wake
Australian grain pricing is increasingly driven by domestic basis rather than global futures. Drying trends and falling subsoil moisture in northern New South Wales and Queensland are tightening local supply. As El Niño risk grows, buyers are moving earlier, creating emerging...
Copper Rallies on Bullish Flag Ahead of Second US‑Iran Peace Talks
Copper surged past $6.07 per pound after a bullish flag pattern emerged on the chart, spurred by optimism around the second round of US‑Iran peace talks in Pakistan. The rally is underpinned by a two‑week cease‑fire, improving risk‑on appetite and...
Oil Prices Jump to $97 as US‑Iran Ceasefire Expiry Fuels Supply‑Chain Uncertainty
Brent crude rose 1.6% to $97 per barrel as the two‑week US‑Iran ceasefire nears expiration, stoking supply‑chain concerns. Traders cite the looming truce deadline and possible Strait of Hormuz closure as the main drivers of price volatility.
Iran and Russia Boost March Oil Exports Over 5% as Asian Demand Rises
Iran and Russia lifted March crude oil exports by over 5% compared with the prior 12‑month average, as India and other Asian buyers increased purchases. The surge undercuts former President Donald Trump's sanctions strategy and pushes Russian crude above West...
Surging Gas Prices Will Cost Americans $857 More in 2026
The Iran war has pushed global oil prices up more than 30%, driving U.S. gasoline costs up $857 per driver in 2026. Retail data show a 15.5% surge in gas‑station sales in March, the biggest jump since the Census began...
Predicting $4675 Gold with Double Fibonacci Confluence
How we arrived at $4675/oz 24 hrs before it happened using double #fibonacci confluence https://t.co/O8D2i7yAmY #xauusd $GLD #forex https://t.co/gMQ4aJSs6y
EP3 Brief
The Australian federal government has begun underwriting fertilizer imports, using strategic reserves to absorb price risk and guarantee timely delivery amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Grain production in New South Wales and Queensland faces a potential double‑digit decline as...
Tiny Pacific Nations Face Tough Choices on Food, Fuel Posed by Iran War
Pacific island nations are feeling the fallout of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, which has choked the Strait of Hormuz and pushed diesel, petrol and kerosene prices up to 70% in Papua New Guinea. The region, heavily dependent on imported diesel...
It's Not Your Imagination, Diesel Prices Are Going Up Faster Than Gas Or Oil
Diesel prices in the United States have surged to an average $5.55 per gallon in April 2026, outpacing gasoline’s $4.10 per gallon and creating a $1.45 gap. Since the start of 2026 diesel has risen roughly $2.05 per gallon, nearly double...
Urea Squeeze Shows Signs of Easing as North Stays Dry
Urea supplies to southeastern Australia are easing as new cargoes from Brunei, Indonesia, Nigeria and Oman arrive by mid‑May, pulling prices down from a $1,600‑per‑tonne peak to around $1,400. Early winter‑crop planting is underway on South Australia’s Eyre Peninsula, with...
War's Energy Surge Signals Higher Prices Ahead
No matter how long you expect the war to last, the chart below doesn’t look like the end of a move. If anything, the setup still appears quite explosive. This marks the beginning of a new regime of structurally higher energy prices,...
Has Global Gold Production Really Peaked — Or Is a New Supply Cycle Beginning?
Gold prices have surged above $5,500 per ounce in 2026 while mine production has barely risen, creating a structural supply gap. Global mine output grew from 3,516 metric tons in 2016 to a record 3,672 metric tons in 2025, far short of...
China's Oil Wells at Risk Without Immediate Iranian Flow
Iran is without revenues, but way more important is that the oilwells that China relies on might be permanently damaged if oilflows does not start again within a short time
An Interesting Setup in Copper & Silver
The author’s Synthetic Silver Price Index (SSPI) ties copper to silver, confirming that silver’s long‑term bull market remains intact despite a January correction. Copper recently broke out of an ascending triangle, a classic bullish pattern, reinforcing the uptrend. Because the...
China’s Record Oil Stockpiles Signal Hidden Market Insight
China's oil inventories are at record high.. What do the Chinese know that we don't? Daily Energy Report Link: https://t.co/yJIG1S9GHe
The Strait of Hormuz Closure Forces a Choice: Ration Oil Now or Pay a Steep Price Later
The Strait of Hormuz closure after the U.S. counter‑blockade has removed roughly 13% of global oil supply, pushing Brent crude to about $95 a barrel and draining strategic inventories. Daily production outages now exceed 13 million barrels per day, with an...
Daily Energy Report
China’s oil inventories have surged to a record high as firms tap cheap barrels bought for about $50 per barrel from Iran, Russia and Venezuela, rather than purchasing current imports priced above $100. The rise runs counter to market expectations...
Oil Holds Advance as Trump Extends Truce But Maintains Blockade
Oil prices continued their two‑day rally after President Donald Trump announced an extension of the cease‑fire with Iran, even as diplomatic talks collapsed. Brent crude climbed almost 9% in two sessions, settling just under $99 a barrel, while U.S. West...
Egypt Seeks IOC Upstream Boost to Offset Dwindling Gas Supplies
Egypt is confronting a second gas shortage in ten years as fuel prices surge due to the Middle‑East conflict. The government is urging international oil companies (IOCs) to accelerate upstream projects in its Mediterranean offshore basins to close the supply...
Oil Prices Creep Higher Ahead of Ceasefire Decision
Oil futures nudged higher on Tuesday as President Donald Trump announced an indefinite extension of the U.S. cease‑fire with Iran. The move lifted sentiment in the market, but analysts warned that the cease‑fire does not guarantee a durable peace. Prices...
Qatar LNG Disruption Triggers Power Crisis in Pakistan
Pakistan’s power grid is under severe strain after QatarEnergy halted LNG production following Iranian strikes. LNG imports fell 67%, forcing daily load‑shedding and factory shutdowns, while hydro, nuclear and gas outputs also slipped. The government faces a trade‑off between costly...