Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
The Global Rush For Physical Gold & Silver Is Going Into Overdrive | Andy Schectman
Physical gold and silver demand is surging globally, with COMEX deliveries hitting unprecedented levels and China’s silver imports reaching record highs. Nations such as France are repatriating gold stored abroad, reflecting heightened concerns over counter‑party risk. Andy Schectman, CEO of Miles Franklin, highlighted these trends in a livestream and offered a limited‑time discount of $2 per ounce below spot for junk silver. The rush signals tightening supply and potential price volatility.
Edison: Qatar to Extend Gas Force Majeure, U.S. LNG Filling Gap
Italian utility Edison warned that Qatar may keep its LNG force majeure in place beyond mid‑June, after the Gulf supplier cancelled ten cargoes totaling 1.4 billion cubic metres. To bridge the shortfall, Edison secured seven cargoes from U.S. exporters, effectively substituting...
U.S. Gas Exports Will Boom Again in 2027
The U.S. Department of Energy’s Short‑Term Energy Outlook projects a resurgence in U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports as five new LNG projects come online by the end of 2027. Net natural‑gas exports are expected to climb 18 % to 18.7 billion...
Softs Report 04/22/2026
The Softs Report for April 22 2026 shows cotton futures climbing on dry conditions in key growing regions, while global cotton output is projected to decline due to reduced planted area and yields. Florida orange juice (FCOJ) contracts slipped as speculative selling...
Gold Price Halts Two-Day Decline with US-Iran Ceasefire Extended
Gold prices halted a two‑day decline on Wednesday, stabilising above $4,700 an ounce after President Donald Trump announced an extension of the US‑Iran ceasefire. The pause follows more than 10% losses since the conflict began, as investors reassess geopolitical risk...
India’s Urea Stock at 4-Year Low Ahead of Kharif Sowing Season
India’s urea opening stock as of April 1 2026 slipped to 54.22 lakh tonnes, the lowest level in four years, raising concerns ahead of the kharif sowing season. The government has been ramping up imports since September 2025, but the season’s requirement of roughly...
Daily Energy Report
Global crude floating storage has climbed to its highest level since the summer of 2020, according to Kpler’s weekly data for 2025‑2026. The surge follows the onset of the Iran‑related conflict and the resulting Hormuz Strait bottleneck, which have forced...
India Snaps Up Cheaper Spot LNG Cargoes
India has resumed buying spot LNG cargoes as Asian benchmark prices slipped to the lowest level in a month, driven by demand destruction and optimism about a Middle East conflict resolution. Major importers including Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd, Gail India...
Ceasefire Deadline Fuels Oil Market Jitters as US‑Iran Talks Stall in Islamabad
U.S. President Donald Trump signaled he will not extend the two‑week ceasefire with Iran, while Iran’s chief negotiator warned against talks under threat. The standoff threatens to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, keeping oil markets on edge as the...
5 Fuel Shocks, 5 Very Different Endings: What History Tells Us About This One
Jet fuel prices have doubled in eight weeks, creating a severe cost shock for airlines that see fuel as 20‑30% of expenses. The surge is linked to geopolitical tensions, especially the war in Iran, and looming supply constraints in Europe...
The AI Economy Runs on Helium. The Iran War Just Created a $650 Billion Problem
Moody’s Ratings warns that the Iran‑Israel conflict has disrupted Qatar’s Ras Laffan helium plant, creating a $650 billion supply‑chain risk for the AI economy. Helium, essential for wafer cooling, carrier gas and leak detection in semiconductor fabs, has no industrial substitute. The...
India Decides to Import 2.5 Million Tonnes of Urea at $935 & $959/Tonne
India’s import agency Indian Potash (IPL) approved the purchase of 2.5 million tonnes of urea at $935 per tonne for the West Coast and $959 per tonne for the East Coast. The contract was awarded to five firms—Aditya Birla Global Trading,...
Waha Locked in Negative Territory Amid Natural Gas Market Fracture
Natural‑gas spot prices slipped on Tuesday as milder Midwest weather reduced demand, while futures remained above cash levels. Henry Hub cash prices have traded at a premium to NYMEX futures since late February, underscoring a broader market shift. In contrast,...
Carriers’ Handling of Fuel Surcharges Agitates Small, Midsize Trans-Pac Shippers
Small and midsize trans‑Pacific shippers are raising concerns over ocean carriers’ handling of bunker‑fuel surcharges. Many carriers are insisting on open‑ended emergency surcharge clauses that lack clear exit triggers, making it hard for shippers to compare pricing across lines. The...
Russia to Suspend Kazakh Oil Flows Through Key Pipeline Supplying Berlin
Russia announced it will halt Kazakhstan's crude oil shipments through the Druzhba‑Baltic pipeline that feeds Germany’s refineries, citing recent EU sanctions on Moscow. The pipeline carries roughly 1 million barrels per day (≈ 160,000 bpd to Germany), representing about 10% of Berlin’s oil...
Copper Price: Goldman Maintains Year-End Forecast, Traxys Sees $15,000
Copper prices steadied above $13,200 a tonne as supply concerns from the Middle East war and a looming sulphuric acid export ban by China weigh on the market. Goldman Sachs kept its 2024 price target at $12,650 per tonne despite...
Fastmarkets Proposes to Change Chinese UCO Timestamps
Fastmarkets announced it will shift the publication time for its daily used cooking oil (UCO) price assessments from 4:30 pm London time to 4:30 pm Singapore time, effective May 20 2026. The change applies to both the flexi‑tank (AG‑UCO‑0015) and bulk (AG‑UCO‑0014) FOB China...
US EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories +1925K vs -1200K Expected
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported crude oil inventories rose by 1.925 million barrels for the week ending April 10, far above the 1.2 million‑barrel draw analysts expected. Gasoline stocks plunged 4.57 million barrels and distillate inventories fell 3.43 million barrels, both exceeding forecasted declines....
Strait of Hormuz Disruption and the Long Tail of Higher Oil Prices
The war in Iran has triggered the most severe physical disruption to global energy since the 1970s, according to IEA chief Fatih Birol. Damage to Middle‑East infrastructure and a choke‑point in the Strait of Hormuz have halted oil flows and filled...
European HVO Class IV-II Spread at an All-Time High
The northwest European HVO Class IV‑II spread surged to a record $450 per tonne on 21 April, up from $250 a month earlier. The jump reflects a $95/m³ premium for Class IV versus a $20/m³ rise for Class II, driven by scarce Class IV offers...
Iran War Sparks Massive Commodity Price Surge, Markets Stable
Since the start of the Iran war... Jet Fuel: +60% Sulfur: +53% Urea: +49% Heating Oil: +46% Diesel: +46% Brent Crude Oil: +36% Fertilizer: +35% Gasoline: +35% WTI Crude Oil: +35% European Natural Gas: +33% Palm Oil: +14% Coal: +12% Iron Ore: +8% Rice: +6% S&P 500: +3% $VIX: -4%
Gold's Rally Unwinds: Gravestone Doji Signals Hedge Collapse
Gold just printed a gravestone doji. While everyone cheered the ceasefire extension, the hedge trade quietly cracked. +36% in a year. -2.8% in a single session. One chart tells you what's really unwinding. https://t.co/2SqrR1yGxA
Airlines Slash Routes as Jet Fuel Prices Double, Spirit Fares Surge
Jet fuel prices have jumped from about $99 to over $200 per barrel, forcing carriers such as Delta, Air Canada and Lufthansa to cut routes and trim capacity. Spirit Airlines saw its average fare for late‑March flights rise from $86...
Oil CEOs Reject Drill Push, Sell Their Shares
Chris Wright and Doug Burgum got on a call with 200 top oil and gas executives and begged them to drill more. They all said no. High prices won't last. Not a good investment. Instead oil executives are selling their own stock....
US Petroleum Stocks Dip Modestly as Gasoline Falls, Crude Rises
US commercial petroleum inventories declined by only 1.8 MMbbl last week, driven by ongoing declines in gasoline (-4.6) and gasoline (-3.4) but offset by a 1.9 MMbbl build in crude together with inflows of NGLs. https://t.co/A15Ypw5oq9
Fuel Prices Decline as Diesel and Gasoline Markets Ease After Volatility
U.S. diesel and gasoline prices slipped this week, with diesel down 21 cents to $5.403 per gallon and gasoline down 8 cents to $4.044 per gallon, according to the Energy Information Administration. Despite the declines, both fuels remain well above...
Chinese Battery Makers Lean on Gas Amid Lithium Crunch
Volt Insight briefing: Chinese battery companies' reliance on natural gas, CATL's mining push, and the lithium squeeze. Read more and sign up to my newsletter here: https://t.co/IUiScW74cK https://t.co/qZWMUx3kbM
Equities Ignore Oil Rise; Watch Key VWAP Levels
Equities markets don't seem to care that oil $CL_F is back above the 🔵anchor from the beginning of the war, not yet at least. Keep an eye on the 🟠⚓️VWAP from the ceasefire announcement and the 🔴VWAP from the YTD high...
Lufthansa Cuts 20,000 Flights as Jet Fuel Prices Double Amid Iran Conflict
Lufthansa announced the cancellation of 20,000 flights until October, aiming to save 40,000 tons of jet fuel after jet fuel prices doubled following the Iran war. The move trims the airline’s short‑haul network and trims summer capacity by about one...
Diesel Inventories Plummet, Prices Set to Hit Records
Watch diesel inventories. As I mentioned in various reports, I expect record-low diesel inventories with record prices.
Higher Jet Fuel Costs Will Naturally Reduce Flights
The market will take care of the jetfuel scarcities itself in Europe for example. When flight prices are up 2-3x for the summer season, fewer people will fly. It is as simple as that.
Finnair Flags Middle East Conflict as Jet‑Fuel Risk, CEO Says Company Is Preparing for Scenarios
Finnair CEO Turkka Kuusisto warned that a prolonged Middle East war threatens jet‑fuel availability and said the airline is preparing for multiple scenarios. The alert comes as the carrier posted first‑quarter sales in line with analyst expectations, underscoring the financial...
Brent Futures Gap Collapsed, Market Silence Prevails
The thing about markets is that stuff only gets talked about when it's apocalyptic. The gap between Dated Brent and futures has collapsed, so no one talks about it anymore. Sign up as a paying subscriber for my daily posts...
Lithium Deficit Persists Until 2035, Requires Massive Investment
Canaccord expects lithium markets to slip into deficit this year and remain there until at least 2035, calls for "significant investment in new supply" https://t.co/folUunEI4w
Iran‑U.S. Standoff Pushes Brent to $95/Barrel, Fuel Costs Spike in US and UK
The Iran‑U.S. confrontation has driven Brent crude to roughly $95 per barrel, raising U.S. household gasoline expenses by $857 a year and lifting UK consumer‑price inflation to 3.3%. Analysts warn the surge will cascade through plastics, food and broader cost‑of‑living...
Exiting April/June Live Cattle Spread
Think there may be more in it but stepping out of the April/June trade Live cattle that was posted on here a week or so ago. Looking at 4.30 on the spread to step aside.
Traders Bet $430M on Oil Drop Pre‑Trump Ceasefire
Traders placed bets worth $430 million on a drop in crude prices just 15 minutes before President Trump said he would extend a ceasefire with Iran, which sent the market lower @a_coops1 https://t.co/v167motouv
Hoarding Is Driving Energy Prices Higher Everywhere
Global oil markets are tightening as wealthy nations—China, Japan, Europe, and the United States—scramble to secure supplies amid the Middle East conflict. Their aggressive purchasing and export restrictions are pushing energy prices higher worldwide and creating shortages in less affluent...
Missing Price Discovery Signals Looming Energy Market Crisis
“The lack of price discovery that we are seeing is so worrying to me, because in reality we are storing up a bigger problem for the future,” said Amrita Sen, founder and director of market intelligence at Energy Aspects. https://t.co/faWrJzysrl
Gold Surges when Monetary Regimes Shift, Not Just Inflation
Gold doesn't shine every year. It shines during monetary regime changes. 1971: Bretton Woods collapses → gold 10x'd by 1980. Post-2008 QE era → gold 6x'd by 2011. The driver wasn't just inflation. It was confidence in the system itself. $GLD $GDX https://t.co/LTB2CfST8r
Cotton Prices Rise In India Amid Supply Concerns
India's benchmark Shankar‑6 cotton surged to Rs 60,500 ($645) per candy, an 8.5% rise from a month earlier, as domestic output is projected at 291 lakh bales—slightly below last year—while textile mills forecast demand of 312 lakh bales. The price climb is amplified...
Silver’s Price Outlook
Silver has been reclassified by the United States as a critical mineral, driven by soaring industrial demand and its historic role as a monetary metal in Asia. China, the world’s second‑largest producer after Mexico, supplies about 110 million ounces (≈3,421 tonnes) annually,...
Copper Eyes $6.20 Breakout After Deceptive Moves
Copper had fake breakout and reversal then fake breakdown and bullish reversal last month. Will it finally breakout of rectangle at $6.20? https://t.co/b6UjOWUib4
The Iran War Threatens To Pull The Plug On American Farming’s Life Support
The Iran‑Israel conflict is driving oil and natural‑gas prices higher, threatening the energy‑intensive U.S. food system. The war has pushed global urea fertilizer costs up about 50%, exposing the reliance of American farms on imports that travel through the Strait...
VLSFO Premiums up in UAE's Fujairah as Supply Dwindles
Very‑low‑sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) premiums in Fujairah surged to over $50 per tonne on 21 April, up from $15 the week before, as local producers face an acute shortage of low‑sulphur feedstock. The shortage stems from US‑Iran blockades in the Strait...
LNG Bunkering Prices Surge as Hormuz Disruption Reshapes Market Dynamics
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent LNG bunkering markets into volatility, removing roughly 20% of global seaborne LNG capacity and driving Asian spot prices up more than 140%. While Brent crude rose about 50% to $100 per...
EU Publishes Energy Crisis Plans
The European Commission unveiled a package of measures to tackle a looming fossil‑energy crisis intensified by the Middle East war, which has forced the EU to spend an extra €24 bn (about $26 bn) on imports. The plan emphasizes tighter coordination among...
Oil Prices Rise After Reports of Container Ships in Hormuz Being Hit by Gunfire
Oil prices surged past $100 a barrel on Wednesday as reports emerged that at least three container ships were struck by gunfire in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose 1.6% to $100.07 per barrel, while WTI gained 1.7% to...
Malaysian Fuel Prices April 23-29, 2026 – All Reduced; Diesel to RM5.12, RON95 to RM3.87, RON97 to RM4.85
Malaysia’s Ministry of Finance announced a further reduction in fuel prices for the week of April 23‑29, 2026. Diesel (B10/B20) falls 85 sen to RM5.12 per litre (≈$1.14), while unsubsidised RON95 and RON97 drop to RM3.87 (≈$0.86) and RM4.85 (≈$1.08)...
UK Government to Implement Measures to Decouple Electricity Prices From Gas Market
The UK government announced a package of measures to sever electricity prices from volatile gas markets, highlighted by raising the renewables windfall tax (Electricity Generator Levy) from 45% to 55% effective July 1, 2026. A voluntary long‑term wholesale Contracts for Difference (WCfD)...