Know What's Happening in Commodities
Know What's Happening in Commodities
OPEC+ agrees modest oil quota increase amid Middle East war
OPEC+ members agreed in principle to raise production quotas for May by roughly 206,000 barrels per day, a symbolic adjustment as the war constrains output and shipments. Saudi Arabia and Russia led the video‑conference decision, signaling alliance cohesion despite the geopolitical shock.
The International Energy Agency announced it will release 400 million barrels of oil from members' emergency reserves, the largest drawdown in its history and more than double the 2022 release for Ukraine. The volume represents roughly 20 days of oil that normally transits the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively shut by Iran’s attacks on shipping. Export volumes are now below 10% of pre‑war levels, cutting global supply by about 20%, prompting the IEA and G7 to act. While the move aims to calm markets, analysts warn it is a temporary fix.
Escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have driven global fertilizer prices up 50‑80%, raising the cost of key agricultural inputs. Shipping rates, marine insurance and energy prices have also surged, creating pressure on agro‑chemical supply chains. UPL Group’s COO,...
Cash dairy prices on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were largely lower on Wednesday. Dry whey held steady at $0.64, while 40‑lb cheese blocks fell $0.04 to about $1.51 and cheese barrels slipped to $1.5125 with no trades. Butter declined $0.0425...
Midday cash livestock markets showed modest declines in live and dressed cattle prices, with live cattle at $235 and Nebraska dressed cattle at $372, each down $5‑$8 from the prior week. Calf and heifer prices were mixed, favoring lighter weights...
First scores on doors I've seen ... and it's boringly close to what we have been telling readers in the past week. At the current futures curve in oil, you get 2.3% in 2026 (roughly), with gas not doing much...
Gasoline prices in the United States jumped from $2.98 to $3.58 per gallon within two weeks, with California hitting $5.40. The surge follows a series of geopolitical shocks tied to former President Trump’s foreign‑policy moves, including renewed sanctions on Russian...
◾️Saudi Arabia deserves more recognition for its prudent, forward-thinking approach—strategically prepositioning oil in storage facilities around the world to hedge against potential supply disruptions. ◾️What @AlexLawler100 missed in this story is going back to previous reports to see that...
Guinea, now the world’s largest bauxite producer, is weighing export curbs as a glut has driven prices down roughly 50% since January 2025. Export shipments surged 25% to 183 million tonnes last year, far exceeding licence‑based production plans. The government is...
The episode explains that 32 IEA member countries have agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves—the largest ever—to curb soaring energy prices amid the US‑Israel conflict in Iran. IEA Executive Director Faith Beryl notes this release is...
Teck and Korea Zinc have set the benchmark zinc concentrate treatment charge (TC) at $85 per tonne, a $5 increase from the previous level. The agreement introduces a payable for germanium and revises the silver payable, though sources disagree on...
World leaders agreed to release 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, the largest coordinated IEA drawdown ever, to counter a sharp Brent price surge after the Iran war began. Despite the announcement, Brent crude rose to about $91 per barrel, indicating...
Malaysia will raise fuel prices from tomorrow, with RON97 climbing to RM3.85 per litre (up 60 sen) and diesel to RM3.92 per litre (up 80 sen). Unsubsidised RON95 will increase to RM3.27 per litre. The new rates apply until 18 March, while the...
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni announced that Italy will request an immediate suspension of the EU Emissions Trading System for fossil‑fuel‑fired power generators, arguing the scheme adds roughly €30/MWh, or about a quarter of household electricity costs. The move is...
Iran escalated its campaign against Gulf allies by launching drones that struck Dubai International Airport, wounding four people, and by hitting commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian military also announced plans to target banks and financial institutions...
Russian crude output slipped 0.6% in February, falling to 9.184 million bpd, as sanctions pressure persisted but a U.S. waiver helped Indian imports rebound. Saudi Arabia simultaneously boosted production to over 10.1 million bpd, citing a contingency plan amid escalating U.S.-Israeli strikes...
The International Energy Agency’s member states voted unanimously to release 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency strategic reserves, a move that more than doubles the 182 million‑barrel drawdown in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. The sizable release is intended to...
The recent US‑Israeli war against Iran has ignited a fresh energy shock, pushing crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and tightening natural‑gas markets. Jim O’Neill draws parallels with the 1979‑1982 oil crisis, warning that producers cannot rely on sustained...
Jeff Currie, former head of commodity research at Goldman Sachs, warned that the ongoing disruption of the Strait of Hormuz makes oil prices virtually unstoppable in the near term, and no policy response—such as strategic petroleum reserve releases or government...
The Softs report shows speculative buying lifting cotton and Florida orange‑juice (FCOJ) futures while global production remains robust. Coffee markets are under pressure as Brazil’s exports fell 23.5% year‑over‑year, pushing the most‑active ICE contract down over 17% YTD. Sugar prices...
The International Energy Agency announced a historic release of 400 million barrels of emergency crude, the largest drawdown in its history and about one‑third of members’ total reserves. The move aims to temper soaring oil prices triggered by the U.S.–Israel conflict...
The UK government will review its planned September removal of the fuel‑duty freeze after the Iran war drove crude oil prices to about $90 a barrel, pushing petrol up 6p and diesel up 12p in a week. Prime Minister Keir...
At what price is demand destruction when it comes to gasoline prices? According to Casey's General Store on their earnings call yesterday, “on the volume side of things, with absolute retail prices, we really don’t start to see any level...
OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report leaves its global supply, demand and economic forecasts unchanged despite major supply disruptions in the Middle East Gulf following the US‑Iran conflict. The organization notes that geopolitical developments warrant close monitoring, but any impact...
At the end of February, gold was up 60% from Powell's dovish speech at Jackson Hole on Aug 22, which is what sparked the "debasement trade." After a massive gain like that, it's no surprise that gold fell once war...
The ratio of urea to corn is nearing its worst levels of the post-Covid inflation. https://t.co/2Eazf7LmiV https://t.co/O3bgdlViKO
Japan and Germany announced they will tap strategic petroleum reserves to curb soaring crude prices amid the Iran‑Israel war, following an International Energy Agency request for a 400 million‑barrel release. Japan plans to act as early as March 16, while Germany will...
yes, it did but it was also followed by a complete revolution in how oil prices were set. Before oil companies negotiated a posted price with OPEC. Afterwards OPEC set prices thru production quotas I♥️historical comparisons, but not everything is directly...
Not only is there no strategic urea reserve, if you listen to today's episode, you'll see there really isn't much buffer storage anywhere at all https://t.co/niRvIF7txf
Broker StoneX dramatically reduced its global sugar surplus forecast for the 2025/26 marketing year to 870,000 metric tonnes, down from the 2.9 million tonnes projected in January. The revision stems from a downward revision of Indian sugar production to 29.7 million tonnes,...
📈CBOT November soybeans pushed higher on Wednesday, ending at $11.63-1/4 per bushel and marking their 11th consecutive session in overbought territory (RSI of 70+). Relative strength index has reached 85. Last time new-crop bean RSI was 85+ in year of expiry?...
US price-to-production response is typically ~6 months. In an exceptional situation, like now, maybe we could get that down to ~4 months? But if the Strait is still closed in 4 months the entire global economy is pretty well screwed.
U.S. gasoline prices have surged 20% since the Feb. 28 strikes by the United States and Israel drove oil higher. The increase will not appear in the February CPI, which is released later this week, but it will feed into overall...
WTI crude oil remains well off its intraday high from Monday, but implied volatility - from the $OVX - continues to climb to fresh 6-year highs... https://t.co/VDf2X5NDWk
Thank you to Prime Minister Takaichi of Japan for her and the Japanese government’s support for the largest ever emergency oil stock release by @IEA Member countries to address the disruptions in the market
High oil prices are great for Putin. At $85 per barrel, Urals oil price is now the highest since 2022. High prices also mean the EU's maritime services ban in its 20th sanctions package is dead and pressure in the...
Price spikes will hurt a lot, but they're the luxury position--much better to have pump price pain than outright physical shortages, as will be suffered by much of the developing world. This is how you guarantee shortages in this context. https://t.co/jRUy3woUSl
Awesome. This is exactly the policy we need. By my analysis, we can get these 30 billion barrels of refined petroleum products to market in the next few days, which will really help mitigate the price spikes from the closure of...
Employ America Statement on the Coordinated IEA Release. https://t.co/goQS5uJUUS No stockpile release can compare to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but with the right preparation, there are still ways to make it helpful at the margin. https://t.co/K549sAsIrM
Big implications for #lithium and #copper markets... Chile is a major global producer of both #criticalminerals.
OPEC+ crude production rose more than 400 kbpd m/m in February according to just-released OPEC data, with the bulk driven by the ongoing Kazakh recovery. Unfortunately it's immediately worthless given GCC crude exports were throttled immediately thereafter by Iran War. https://t.co/jTQxOjrt4b
Diesel prices for U.S. truckers rose a record 96 cents a gallon this past week, a sign of the financial strains hitting supply chains following the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. https://t.co/C9K90LaXGX
🇺🇸U.S. ethanol production last week hit 1.126M barrels per day, the third best weekly volume on record. However, ethanol stocks declined on the week to 25.6M barrels, which is actually the week's lowest reading in four years. https://t.co/kJtuRESZcN
Crude oil has pulled back from its high of over $110/barrel, but fertilizer stocks are still moving, hitting multi-year highs. This corner of the market still appears to be expecting petro price pressure. https://t.co/r6Y5yIn6hu
Interestingly, crude oil is up after the IEA reserve release. If this head and shoulders pattern on the near term charts plays out, we are looking at oil back above $102 a barrel. https://t.co/WA4Ceo89fg
The Strait of Hormuz remains almost shut, even as the risk premium priced into Brent currently (blue) is on par with that after Ukraine (black). The Strait is 3 times more important for global oil supply than Russia, so risk...
Rather than the IEA's own 400 million barrels, the most important number right now is Japan's announcement that's releasing from Monday (March 16th) ~80 million barrels from its reserve. Those are actual flow barrels that will hit the market immediately...
9 trading days into the conflict, crude and gas price trajectory has been very similar oil: https://t.co/O0orfuxpnw
As economists forecast falling gas prices later in 2026, I encourage you to consider this chart. Once surcharges are imposed, the benefits of falling prices are very slow to follow... https://t.co/pl5zUkZK7h
"Record Diesel-Price Surge Hits U.S. Truckers, Retailers and Manufacturers" https://t.co/5jBpvH4MCa "Most large trucking companies will pass the added costs on to American stores and factories..." Fortunately, US factories aren't already facing soaring costs, so it's fi- oh. https://t.co/ZU45kzcUbj
$WTI crashed from $100 to $83 in a session. Then bounced back to $87. Oil volatility this extreme hasn't happened since 2008. Every rip gets sold. Every dip gets bought. Nobody has conviction. Everyone has exposure. https://t.co/UWmcEvxdHn
