Know What's Happening in Commodities
Know What's Happening in Commodities
Ireland launches €250M relief package as heating oil prices double
Heating oil prices in Ireland surged from about $545 to over $1,090 per fill within a month amid the Middle East conflict. The government responded with a €250 million ($273 million) relief package that includes excise cuts and a diesel rebate, though experts say a national energy‑security strategy is still lacking.
Also developing:
By the numbers: Oil majors acquire $164M of Alaska oil leases
Donald Trump suggested the US‑Israel conflict with Iran could end soon, but analysts warn the war may linger, keeping oil markets on edge. Prolonged fighting threatens to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, which would push energy prices higher. The briefing examined how this single geographic vulnerability amplifies worldwide economic risk. Guests from BBC Verify, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, and defense think tanks debated solutions to reduce oil dependency.
ING commodity strategist Warren Patterson discusses the ongoing oil price volatility, with Brent crude intermittently breaching $100 per barrel despite the International Energy Agency’s announcement of record supply releases. He examines how the conflict with Iran, particularly the strategic choke...
Why are oil speculators assuming this war is short and irrelevant? Yesterday I talked to an energy analyst I highly respect, and he waved off the Iran situation. Oil/gas markets are dynamic and flexible, he posited, they can handle it....
U.S. natural‑gas storage capacity has remained essentially flat since 2012, while overall demand – driven by domestic consumption and rapidly expanding LNG exports – is accelerating. The Gulf Coast, home to the majority of export terminals, is now confronting a...
U.S. military actions in the Middle East have driven Brent crude sharply higher, reviving scrutiny of oil’s influence on broader price levels. Historical FRED data reveal that oil price movements have consistently co‑moved with the Global Food Price Index and...
The ongoing Middle East conflict is forcing LNG vessels originally slated for Latin America to reroute to higher‑paying markets in Europe and Asia. Spot prices at key Latin American terminals have risen 15‑20% month‑over‑month, yet remain below the premiums offered...
Futures slipped 60 basis points as oil prices stay elevated, driven by tanker incidents in Iraqi waters, Oman's export‑terminal clearance, and Chinese refiners canceling cargoes. Asian equity markets opened lower, with the Nikkei and Taiwan indices down over 1%, while...
#Corn story seems to be getting more and more bullish and the #soybean story seems to be getting much more negative. This isn't a production issue for soybeans such as hot and dry weather cutting the crop. The...
Carlyle’s Currie warning on the risks of upward pressure on all commodities. Says hoarding can lead to sustained upward pressure and this marks a regime change, not a spike. References post dotcom bubble (China entrance to WTO; gulf war; etc)...
The US‑Israel war against Iran has already rattled global commodity markets, tightening supply chains for oil, fertilizers, chemicals and several metals. BMO Capital Markets notes oil prices spiked toward $120 per barrel before settling near $90, while nitrogen fertilizer costs...
"It's an underappreciated fact that the food shocks in the 1970s were larger than the energy shocks" -Simon White, BBG
Oil prices surged on Thursday as Iran intensified attacks on oil and transport infrastructure, reigniting fears of prolonged disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent futures jumped 6.47% to $97.93 a barrel, briefly touching $100, while U.S. WTI rose 6%...
European carbon allowances (EUAs) stayed flat around €70 despite a sharp 40‑70% rise in Dutch TTF gas futures triggered by the Middle‑East conflict. Gas prices jumped from €31 to over €45 in early March, normally prompting coal‑fuel switching and higher...
SHFE #Silver Tide Turns 🌊 🚨The Shanghai Futures Exchange just recorded its largest single-day inflow in two and a half months
$97.7/oz in Shanghai vs. $85.64/oz in London premiums in #china remains firm, trading 14.1% above #LBMA benchmark
The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) projects global cotton production to fall to 24.8 million tonnes in the 2026/27 season, while consumption is expected to hold steady at 25.0 million tonnes. Lower prices, shifting planting intentions in major producers and weaker demand,...
The Middle East war and Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have driven oil prices to $87‑$120 a barrel and disrupted Gulf fertilizer exports. Fertilizer futures jumped over 10% on the first trading day, with analysts expecting a 17%...
“Our rules of thumb are that a sustained 10% increase in oil prices boosts headline and core PCE inflation by 0.2pp and 0.04pp, respectively, while lowering GDP growth by around 0.1pp. The growth impact from a temporary price increase that...
Malaysia will keep the BUDI95 petrol price at RM 1.99 per litre despite a sharp rise in global oil prices triggered by the West Asia conflict. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said the surge threatens transportation costs and overall price stability, but...
Eurozone households are the first to feel the impact of the latest oil price shock as retail fuel prices surge across the region. A 50‑litre tank now costs €4.5‑€13 more for petrol and €8.4‑€21.5 more for diesel, with Germany seeing...
Singapore may face higher electricity tariffs as global oil and gas prices climb amid the US‑Iran conflict in the Middle East. The region accounts for roughly a quarter of seaborne oil and nearly one‑fifth of LNG trade, and any disruption...
Heavy rain and flooding across central and southern Queensland this week have tightened urea availability and pushed input costs higher, while a 25% rise in diesel prices linked to the Middle East conflict has lifted freight rates by about $5...
Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but people should know: For the 400 million barrels of oil to be released from strategic reserves (announced today), the flow rate — the rate in which it can be released — is...
🚨Iran is still pushing oil through the Strait of Hormuz: At least 11.7 million barrels of Iranian crude have passed through the strait since February 28, all headed to China. Many tankers have "gone dark," switching off their GPS tracking systems...👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-iea-has-proposed-the-largest-emergency-oil-release-from-strategic-reserves-in-history
China’s economy is largely insulated from the recent global energy price spikes triggered by Middle East tensions. Although oil and gas import bills will rise, long‑term contracts, domestic coal dominance, and sizable strategic reserves limit cost pass‑through. The country’s low...
Oil price back to $100. Even though the EIA said member countries will release 400m barrels of oil. At this rate…this is just the beginning the oil shock will send to the economy, supply chain and consumer price.
Gold should be exploding right now. Here's why it isn't Oil +8%. Stocks tanking. USD rising on safe haven flows But gold? Flat Meanwhile Iran's new Supreme Leader Khamenei says Strait stays closed warns of US military bases attacks Watch what happens next👇...
Grocery prices are climbing faster than last year, according to recent CPI‑food‑at‑home data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics shows a year‑over‑year increase of about 5% in the first quarter of 2024, outpacing the 2023 rate. The Economic Research Service’s forecast...
Prediction markets think WTI futures haven’t peaked yet Market-implied odds of maximum price of front-month contracts this year https://t.co/KJycyDttIE https://t.co/obrkd1ueUb
All eyes & hopes rest on the 2 main oil ports of #MinaAlFahal in Oman and #Fujeirah in UAE if any of these continues to be impacted then it's serious for oil prices. ميناء_الفحل #ميناء_الفجيرة#
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has launched a historic 400 million‑barrel emergency oil release, the largest in its 52‑year history, after the Strait of Hormuz closure removed roughly 20 million barrels per day from global supply. Brent crude rose $6.50 to $98.68,...
🇺🇸Japan headlined U.S. corn sales last week, which were above average for the time of year despite falling well below top-end expectations. Mexico & Indonesia led soybean sales, activity from China was relatively low. But China led the week's wheat...
It's pretty amazing that the Trump administration only bought 20MN barrels of oil given oil averaged in the low 60's.
Brent crude futures are again nearing the $100 per barrel threshold as market volatility climbs. The United States crude price volatility index has surged alongside spot price gains. Analysts estimate only a 45% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic will...
The War Escalates and Markets are Unimpressed with IEA Oil Move: The Middle East war is escalating. The market seems unimpressed with the announcement that strategic oil reserves will be released. The announcement is light on details, such as pace...
What happens with oil prices is all about whether risk premia are accurately priced. Initially, markets were massively complacent. Then there was all-out panic. Now, at between $90-100 per barrel, we're accurately pricing risk of a serious disruption... https://t.co/evJVri93wZ https://t.co/EZteEvaeo1
China is expanding its ban on steel mills buying BHP iron ore again, adding another product to the blacklist. They've been negotiating for BHP for ~6 months now and there's no end in sight. This is the second ban in...
The IEA says the war in turning into the biggest oil disruption in world history https://t.co/UJZqGyrhUP
What are the consequences for energy markets and the transition of a potential long disruption to the Strait of Hormuz? TLDR: It’s a *lot* easier to replace 20% of LNG (15% of natgas supply) with wind and solar than it...
Energy policy déjà vu in Europe. Oil reserve release. Gas price cap debate. State aid on the table. The toolkit looks like 2022 because fossil fuel dependence remains. Renewables and electrification reduce exposure. Crisis management does not. https://t.co/PhWMbn21b8
Goldman > Our commodity strategists now expect Brent to average $98 in March and April—up 40% from the 2025 average—before falling back to $71 by 2026Q4.
Overnight Iran reacted to the IEA's oil release intensifying its attacks on regional energy targets, including two small-sized fuel tankers in Iraq. Tehran knows oil is what could force President Trump to end the war early. Still, both Brent and...
>> Historic oil reserve release is only a band-aid on a gaping supply shock https://t.co/C6DC07LD19 @ronbousso1
Given the Trump' Administration decision to release 172 mb form the SPR, this is a must watch (from November 2022)
Food Inflation in America. Not good. Looking at major categories of foods. Some continued to spike (beef, coffee), others continued to plunge (eggs), others changed less. Overall food inflation accelerated on top of already very high prices https://t.co/taRrQJWe4I https://t.co/IdfYxkT1G2
China has just ordered an immediate ban on refined fuel exports in March to manage any potential domestic fuel shortages. A week ago they asked refiners nicely and just targeted new contracts, so this is a step up
We've already lost roughly a quarter *billion* barrels in cumulative oil supply thus far in the Strait of Hormuz stoppage.
The IEA just released 400 million barrels to cover a 20-day shortage. Oil markets are pricing in something longer. Private credit funds are starting to gate withdrawals. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/G7C0qy6noj
Brent crude #oil is flirting dangerously close to the $100/bbl level once again after two tankers were attacked in Iraqi waters, underscoring the broader risks to energy assets across the Middle East and overshadowing a record oil release from the...
Crude oil prices rose - feeding inflation fears and punishing the stock market- despite an IEA release of 400 million barrels from emergency stockpiles. Now what? #crudeoil #oilprices #IranWar #stocks #stockmarket #inflation #macro #trading #dollar https://t.co/jccqS0V3d3
