Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Silver Daily Call for April 23rd, 2026
Silver prices are sliding within a pronounced downward channel, with the metal struggling to break back above its 50‑day moving average at $78.60. A 4‑hour stochastic divergence hints the downside may be capped, but the overall corrective trend persists. The broader market is dominated by erratic oil price movements, keeping metals in a watch‑only stance. Without reclaiming the $78.60 level, further declines are likely.
Wheatstone LNG Resumes Full Production, Adding Supplies to Market Rattled by Iran War
Wheatstone LNG announced it has returned to full‑production levels, restoring its 7.5 mtpa output to the global market. The restart comes as the LNG sector grapples with supply disruptions linked to the Iran‑U.S. naval standoff in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian...
MidDay Futures: Bears Feast on Triple-Digit Natural Gas Storage Build
Natural‑gas futures slipped 12.9 cents to $2.593 per MMBtu as a triple‑digit storage build loomed in the upcoming EIA report. Mild temperatures curbed heating demand while early‑season cooling offered only modest support, leaving physical spot prices on a downward bias. The...
Oil Crude Tops $100, Pulling Asian Markets Back From Record Peaks
Brent crude surged to $103 per barrel as Iran seized vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Japan’s Nikkei, South Korea’s Kospi, Taiwan’s Taiex and India’s Nifty to retreat from fresh record highs. Analysts warned that the oil shock and...
Norway’s Farmed Cod Prices Double Since the Beginning of April; Wild-Caught Prices Fall in Scotland
Norwegian farmed cod prices have nearly doubled since early April, climbing to NOK 136.75 per kilogram (about $14.40). The surge follows a sharp production drop, with shipments falling from 8.26 million kg in March to 4.78 million kg in April – a 42% reduction. Lower...
Morgan Stanley Cuts Gold Price Forecast by Almost 10%
Morgan Stanley’s commodities team slashed its gold price target for the second half of 2026 to $5,200 per ounce, a near‑10% reduction from the prior $5,700 forecast. The downgrade follows a six‑week sell‑off that erased roughly a quarter of gold’s...
Why some Countries Give Away Free Electricity and Even Pay Consumers to Use It
Rising solar and wind generation in Germany, Australia and other markets is creating periods where supply far exceeds demand, prompting wholesale electricity prices to plunge into negative territory and even become free for consumers on flexible tariffs. In 2024, Europe...
Mild Winter Averted Gas Price Spike Amid Hormuz Closure
Northern hemisphere’s mild winter averted worse gas crisis Global gas prices would have surged much higher as a result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz if last winter had not been among the warmest on record across the northern...
Prolonged Oil Price Spikes Extend Equity Market Correction
With crude oil prices driving equities right now, let’s take a look at two examples of oil shocks. The 1990 Gulf War took oil prices from $41 to $100 (in today’s dollars) was short-lived and caused only a brief 19% drawdown...
“War, Oil, and the Great Metals Inversion: Short-Term Mania Meets Long-Term Muscle”. Manic Metals Report 04/23/2026
The Manic Metals report highlights a persistent inversion where oil price spikes, driven by geopolitical tensions, push gold, silver and copper lower instead of acting as safe‑haven assets. Since the 2022 Russia‑Ukraine war, metals have underperformed as a stronger dollar,...
Thermal Coal Update
Thermal coal markets have lost the tailwinds they enjoyed after the Strait of Hormuz blockage, sending both spot prices and related equities sharply lower. Over the past two months, benchmark thermal coal contracts have slipped to roughly $70 per metric...
Oil Prices Climb Above $103 as US‑Iran Tensions Keep Strait of Hormuz Closed
Brent crude rose 1.7% to $103.60 a barrel and U.S. WTI jumped 1.8% to $94.60 as the strategic Strait of Hormuz stayed closed amid stalled U.S.–Iran talks. The rally, reinforced by a drop in U.S. fuel inventories, raises concerns for...
Middle East Blockades Ripple Through Global Supply Chains, Boosting Green Hydrogen Interest
Iran's seizure of two commercial vessels and the U.S. naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz have tightened global supply chains, pushing oil prices above $100 a barrel and inflating shipping costs. The energy shock is narrowing the cost gap...
Helium Shortage Triggers Small‑Cap Rally as Investors Bet on Alternatives
The closure of Qatar’s Ras Laffan plant and the Hormuz blockade cut roughly 30% of world helium output, pushing spot prices toward $2,000 per thousand cubic feet. Investors have responded by piling into five AIM‑listed small‑cap companies developing alternative helium assets,...
Middle East Conflict Triggers Aluminium Supply Concerns
The global aluminium market is confronting a sudden supply shock as the Middle‑East conflict disrupts both primary aluminium and alumina shipments. The region accounts for roughly seven million tonnes, about 9% of worldwide output, and the disruption could create a...
Iran Seizes Ships in Hormuz, Driving Oil to $104 and Gold Below $4,700
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard seized two merchant ships and fired on three others in the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first such seizure in the current conflict. The escalation lifted Brent crude to $103.60 a barrel and pushed gold under $4,700...
The Briefing Room
The United States and Israel’s two‑month war with Iran has kept the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, choking the route that moves roughly 20% of the world’s oil and LNG. Consequently, crude prices remain elevated, feeding inflation pressures across major...
Use the WTO to Address Global Fertilizer Supply Constraints Related to the Iran War
The war in Iran has crippled the global fertilizer supply chain, affecting roughly 30% of worldwide trade that passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Export bans by China, Russia and Turkey have pushed fertilizer prices higher and sparked fears of...
From Net Oil Importer to Net Oil Exporter : Shifts in the Role of Petroleum in the US Economy
The United States transitioned from a long‑standing net oil importer to a net exporter around 2020, as refined petroleum exports outpaced imports. Data from the Federal Reserve’s FRED series show the net export share of GDP turning positive after decades...
Canada March PPI +2.4% M/M vs +1.9% Expected
Canada’s March industrial producer price index (IPPI) rose 2.4% month‑over‑month, outpacing the 1.9% consensus. The raw‑materials price index (RMPI) jumped a staggering 12.0% m/m, far exceeding the 0.6% rise recorded in February. Year‑over‑year, the IPPI was up 7.8% while the...
MacroVoices #529 Ole S Hansen: Commodities in The Wake of The Iran Crisis
Ole S. Hansen joins MacroVoices to dissect how the escalating Iran crisis is reshaping commodity markets. He highlights logistical bottlenecks, a looming fertilizer deficit, and the ripple effects on agricultural and industrial inputs. The discussion also covers copper’s price surge...
The Decrease in Moroccan Courgette Exports to the EU Benefited Almeria's Producers
Morocco’s courgette exports to the EU fell 27.4% year‑over‑year, ending the season on 12 April after shipping 25,507 tons. The drop eased foreign pressure on Almería growers, who saw early‑year prices spike to about €3 (~$3.30) per kilogram before sliding to under €0.40 (~$0.44)...
Platinum Overextended yet Deeply Discounted to Gold
Platinum Is Stretched, But Low vs. Gold Platinum is extremely extended vs. its 60-month moving average, but a primary underpinning may be its steep discount to gold. At about $2,000 an ounce on April 22, my graphic shows platinum around the...
Markets Price Some Risk, Await Future Oil Shock
Markets aren’t ignoring risk. They’ve already priced ~$30 of it. Inventories say $70. Spot says $99. Markets are saying: “that’s enough—for now.” Tomorrow’s price discovery can change everything—up or down. #OilMarkets #Brent #EnergyCrisis https://t.co/wY2VzEqA6l
Silver Extends Losses as US-Iran Stalemate and Rate Hike Bets Weigh on Precious Metals
Silver prices slipped further Tuesday as Iran rejected participation in Islamabad talks, heightening geopolitical tension. The market’s bearish tilt was reinforced by persistent U.S. rate‑hike expectations, keeping upside capped. Technical charts show the metal breaking below $78, eyeing the $67...
Analysts Claim Oil Under‑priced Even with $30 Risk Premium
Why do analysts say that oil is under-priced? $99 Q1 Brent spot priced a $30 risk premium Isn't 40% enough? #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/Yr4EiwJgjj
China's Potential Oil Buying Strike Mirrors Missing Supply
Has anyone thought about the possibility that China is on a full buyers strike in oil markets? That would remove (at least in oil barrels) almost the same barrels that we are currently missing
Hormuz 'Reopening Optimism' Is 'Sliding Fast', Analyst Warns
Analysts warn that optimism about a May 1 reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is eroding, raising the risk of a sharp Brent price adjustment. SEB’s Bjarne Schieldrop notes that each week of delay could add roughly $5 per barrel to...
40% Expect Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normalization After November
40% of oil and gas firms in the @DallasFed survey expect it'll be November or later before Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal. https://t.co/aNqqqDpuML
Copper's Bullish Surge: Few Portfolios Ready to Profit
Quite the bullish outlook for copper from @FrankCappelleri in his note yesterday. Should this happen, how many portfolios are built to benefit from it you think? I'm guessing not many. https://t.co/3Hio1we0O0
Malaysia’s Durian Growers in ‘Survival Mode’ as Early Glut and Iran War Hit Export Trade
Malaysia’s durian growers are in "survival mode" as an early bumper harvest coincides with soaring fuel and freight costs linked to the Iran war. The surge in supply pushed Musang King prices from about $18 per kilogram to roughly $5,...
Low Crude Prices Persist Amid Historic Supply Shock
🚨 NEW POST 🚨 𝗦𝗮𝗻𝗴𝘂𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗶𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗮𝗴𝗲 Making sense of relatively low crude prices through nearly two months of the largest oil supply shock in history https://t.co/1E2OX8hn8t
Oil Prices Reflect Cash Bets, Not Absolute Value
Oil prices are NOT too low @RKelanic Front-month Brent is for late June contracts. It’s neither right nor wrong It’s what people are willing to bet real cash $103 price includes a 20% price urgency risk premium Think about how YOU would price a...
Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief
Global grain markets opened higher, led by wheat, while corn and soybeans added modest weather premiums. Recent revisions show Russia maintaining its wheat outlook, but Australia’s drought now threatens roughly one‑third of its crop and Argentina has trimmed its forecast....
U.S. Shifts Away From Canadian Fertilizer Dependency
Canada is legally part of the US Defense Industrial Base and a massive fertilizer producer. And buying Canadian fertilizer was never a problem for American farmers... Until recently.
US Gas Plant Costs Surge 66% Amid Rising Demand
Costs to build natural gas-fired power plants in the US increased 66% between 2023 and 2025 as developers propose building more projects nationwide to meet rising electricity demand. https://t.co/dO5y2ajRdJ
The Butter Price Crash: Winners, Losers and What Comes Next
Butter prices have slumped about 22% year‑on‑year, with the EU down 35.2%, the US down 20% and Oceania down 10.2%, as record milk output floods the market. Bakers are capitalising on the dip, locking in low‑cost butter through 2027 and...
Oil Futures Backwardation Usually Not Bullish
New free article: Backwardation in Oil Futures is Not Generally Bullish #CL_F Link in reply below. 👇 https://t.co/NTU7sp9zR6
Moody's Cuts India's FY27 Growth Forecast to 6% Amid West Asia Conflict
Moody's Investors Service reduced its projection for India's fiscal year 2026‑27 GDP growth to 6%, down from 6.8%, blaming weaker consumption, softer industrial activity and soaring energy prices linked to the West Asia conflict. The downgrade clashes with Assocham's optimism...
Bloomberg Warns Iran War Exposes Europe's Fossil Fuel Reliance, Green Shift at Risk
A Bloomberg analysis warns that the war in Iran has sent European natural‑gas prices soaring more than 60%, exposing the bloc’s continued dependence on fossil fuels. The surge challenges the pace of the EU’s green transition and raises concerns about...
Russia's Fuel Oil Exports to Saudi Arabia Surge 18%
MOSCOW, April 23 (Reuters) - Russia's seaborne exports of fuel oil and vacuum gasoil (VGO) to Saudi Arabia jumped 18% in March from February to 1 million metric tons as soaring oil prices driven by the Iran war reshaped flows,...
Oil Shock May Push up Electricity Costs in India, Renewables Seen as Key to Energy Security: Report
A new ISI Markets report warns that a global oil supply shock could lift electricity tariffs in India, as power prices have historically tracked fossil‑fuel costs. With coal still supplying about 70% of generation, rising oil and coal prices would...
Why Diesel Has Become a Much Bigger Economic Problem Than Gasoline
The U.S.–Israeli war with Iran has sharply limited diesel supplies, pushing the fuel’s price up about 45 percent since late February—well ahead of gasoline’s 35 percent rise. The Energy Information Administration expects diesel to exceed $5.80 per gallon, while gasoline hovers near...
How the Iran War Has Stoked Competition Between India and China for Russian Oil
India and China are now locked in a tight race for Russian crude, each securing roughly 1.6 million barrels per day in April. The competition intensified after Iranian attacks disrupted Gulf supplies and the U.S. renewed a waiver allowing sanctioned Russian...
Cutting Demand, Not Just Supply, Solves Energy Crisis
Was on @France24_en last night discussing the energy crisis and the scramble for alternatives to Gulf oil. My take: supply substitution alone won't cut it. The only durable answer is fossil fuel demand reduction. https://t.co/JO1XUPfYB2
War Turns Sulphur Market Toxic in Acid Supply Shock
Global seaborne sulphur shipments plunged in March 2026, falling 31% month‑on‑month to 1.5 million tonnes, the sharpest decline in a decade after the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed. The Gulf, which supplies over half of the world’s sulphur, saw exports...
Interview with Mining.com
Gold is trading around $4,700‑$4,800 an ounce, held up by strong demand even as a firmer U.S. dollar and higher bond yields pressure prices. In a Mining.com interview, former banker Alasdair Macleod argues the market’s real shift is occurring in...
What Would a Permanent ‘Tehran’s Tollbooth’ on Oil Mean for the World?
Iran’s peace plan proposes a $2 million toll per tanker—about $1 per barrel—for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The charge would add roughly $7 billion a year to global oil costs and could keep Brent crude near $100 per barrel through...
The ‘Age of Electricity’ Is Here. No One Knows What Comes Next.
The International Energy Agency and Ember report that 2025 was a watershed year for renewable energy, with solar becoming the largest electricity source and renewables surpassing coal for the first time in a century. China and India drove the shift,...
Stock Market Today: Oil Rises as Hormuz Impasse Drags On
Oil prices extended gains for a fourth day, with Brent crude trading above $103 a barrel as the stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz fuels supply worries. Traders cite the lack of progress in U.S.-Iran diplomacy and near‑standstill traffic through...