Know What's Happening in Commodities
Know What's Happening in Commodities
OPEC+ agrees to modest oil quota increase amid Middle East war
OPEC+ members agreed in principle to raise oil production quotas for May by roughly 206,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia and Russia led the video‑conference decision as the conflict in the Middle East constrains output and shipments. Delegates said the move signals alliance cohesion despite the geopolitical shock.
Also developing:
PJM Interconnection’s wholesale power costs surged 54% in 2025, reaching $67 billion. Capacity expenses exploded 262%, now 16% of total costs, exposing a 6,500 MW shortfall for the 2027/2028 auction. The spike is driven by rapid data‑center load growth, prompting the independent market monitor to call for a dedicated data‑center capacity auction and faster generation interconnections. PJM and stakeholders are developing proposals that will be reviewed by FERC in the coming months.
Happy Friday, oil watchers. We're now two weeks into the Iran War and crude prices are up ~$30/bbl. That's roughly a $3/bbl gain per day that the Strait of Hormuz has remained closed, a pace that I expect to continue so long...
Brazil announced a provisional measure that eliminates federal PIS and Cofins taxes on diesel for domestic consumption while imposing a 12% export tax on crude oil and a 50% levy on diesel shipments. The move, driven by soaring crude prices...
The Cotton Association of India (CAI) trimmed its 2025‑26 cotton import forecast to 47 lakh bales, down three lakh from the earlier 50‑lakh estimate, citing higher international prices, a weaker rupee and rising freight costs. Despite the cut, imports remain above...
Yesterday, I had the opportunity to present a webinar titled "Understanding the Ethanol Market" for the Center for Agricultural Profitability at the University of Nebraska. During the session, I shared my insights on several key topics, including: - EV transition and...
Oil markets are once again being driven by a fear premium, pushing Brent crude up by roughly $15‑$20 per barrel despite ample global supply. The premium, first noted after 9/11, reflects traders’ risk‑aversion to geopolitical shocks and supply‑chain disruptions. Recent...
Ongoing industrial gas shortages in India have compelled many steel producers to slash output or shift to higher‑value products to offset rising costs. The sharp depreciation of the rupee has further inflated coking‑coal import prices, while higher shipping and insurance...
The market is adjusting to heightened geopolitical risk after coordinated US‑Israeli strikes on Iran, which have effectively shut the Hormuz Strait and intensified regional drone attacks. These developments are pushing oil prices higher for a longer period, bolstering the U.S....
Sugar futures saw a sharp rally early in the week as rising crude oil prices boosted Brazil's ethanol‑linked support, but the gains evaporated once oil retreated and long positions were liquidated. The market’s focus has shifted to growing surplus expectations,...
In this episode, Gustavo Medeiros of Ashmore Group and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Damian Sassower examine how the war‑induced oil shock is pressuring emerging market (EM) economies with rising energy costs, stagflation risks, and declining asset prices. They discuss the extraordinary policy...
Silver futures on India’s Multi Commodity Exchange fell 2% to ₹2.62 lakh per kilogram, a ₹5,354 drop, as crude‑oil prices rose and inflation concerns intensified. The decline mirrored a near‑3% slide in May COMEX contracts, pricing at $82.89 per ounce. Analysts...
Oil prices have surged above $100 a barrel, prompting wildly different forecasts. The U.S. Energy Information Administration sees prices staying above $95 for two months before falling to $70 by late 2026, while Wood Mackenzie warns of possible spikes to...
The March 13 strategic mineral price bulletin shows a mixed market landscape. Chrome concentrate climbs to $300‑315 per tonne, while lithium carbonate and hydroxide slump to $10,200‑$14,800 and $9,800‑$14,200 respectively. Copper rebounds above $9,750 per tonne, nickel retreats to $14,600‑$17,200, and...
Egg prices have plunged to roughly $2.50 per dozen, a 42% drop from a year ago, as avian‑flu outbreaks receded and an additional nine million hens returned to production. Meanwhile, the wholesale price paid to farmers has slumped more than...
UK Energy Secretary Ed Miliband warned that firms will not be allowed to profit from the recent surge in global oil prices caused by Middle East tensions. The Competition and Markets Authority has been placed on high alert to curb...
Iron ore futures are set for their biggest weekly gain in over a year as China’s state‑backed buyer, the China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG), expands restrictions on BHP products. Singapore‑listed contracts rose more than 6 % this week, reaching nearly $109...
New Oceantic Network research estimates U.S. offshore wind will create $42 billion in steel demand over the next two decades. The sector would require roughly 22 million tons of steel, enough for 239 Golden Gate Bridges. This demand could support 186,600 jobs...
Fidelity Gold Refinery (FGR) released its latest gold buying rates for Zimbabwe on March 13, 2026. The fire‑assay cash price for gold above 100 g is $155.80 per gram ($4,845.72 per ounce), while SG 90 %+ gold commands $154.98 per gram. Prices decline...
Algeria’s economy, heavily dependent on oil and gas, stands to gain as crude prices climb toward $100 a barrel. The surge follows geopolitical tensions, first from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and now the war in Iran, which have lifted global...
Hong Kong lawmakers are pressing the government to curb soaring fuel prices that have risen sharply since the Middle East conflict began in late February. Esso’s standard petrol is up 6.4% to HK$23.43 per litre, while Sinopec’s price has jumped...
Brent crude futures edged higher to $100.64 a barrel on Friday, even as the U.S. Treasury issued a 30‑day licence permitting the sale of Russian oil already stranded at sea. The temporary measure is framed as a market‑stabilising tool that...
In this episode of New World Next Week, James Corbett and James Evan Palato dissect the escalating oil crisis triggered by the U.S.-Iran conflict, highlighting how the Strait of Hormuz closure has forced Asian nations like Pakistan, Bangladesh, and others...
The war in Iran will lower energy prices By Peter Navarro "Roughly a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade transits the Persian Gulf, much of it through the narrow Strait of Hormuz. When markets price crude oil, they must account for...
Cocoa: Easter Bunny came early this year...after a large STD move to downside, Wyckoff automatic rally up, now secondary test down for higher low or continue to base. Time to walk away... https://t.co/RHZIpfSdak
Rising energy costs are pushing nitrogen fertilizer prices higher as natural gas, the primary feedstock for the Haber‑Bosch process, spikes. The price surge cascades through urea, ammonium nitrate and ammonia, inflating the entire fertilizer supply chain. Higher input costs translate...
big picture % change since U.S. & Israel attacked Iran... crude + $VIX & Bitcoin up the most... https://t.co/lK9FCWy5TY
A hallmark about most fancy analysts, including many I respect, is that they don't appear to be filling up at the gas station. Most of them talk about future price hikes in the coming days, not realizing that they have...
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a short‑term general licence that lets countries buy Russian crude already stranded at sea, aiming to ease the price surge triggered by the U.S.-Israel‑Iran conflict. The licence covers oil loaded onto vessels by March 12...
What are the longer term ramifications of an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz? Growth in alternative energy sources? What else?
BRENT crude prices have risen by more than two-thirds since the start of the year but in real terms they remain moderate at only a little over the average since the start of the century: https://t.co/MsEc6Lww8F
A Reddit user compared today’s gasoline prices to the 1973 and 1979 oil crises, noting that inflation‑adjusted prices then averaged about $4.85 per gallon. In contrast, Ohio’s current pump price is roughly $3.25, roughly 50 % lower than the 1970s peak....
"What the Jones Act does and how a Trump suspension could affect fuel prices" https://t.co/goGJwDm2EN https://t.co/s2CTtPeu6A
Great @business reporting by @DanielPFlatley on US moves to ease restrictions on buying Russian oil. This is all backwards. Russia and Iran are making money while the Strait of Hormuz is shut and global oil prices spike. Iran's oil exports...
Macquarie Group warns that Indonesia's new nickel production quota could push the global market into a deficit this year. The December 2025 policy tightens supply to counter a glut, already lifting prices of nickel metal, nickel pig iron, nickel sulfate...
According to this excellent @WSJ story, Iran is today exporting more oil than before war broke out. That’s insane. First order of business for the US Navy is to stop any and all ship traffic out of Iran. That won’t...
COLUMN: The White House is running out of ways to curb rising oil prices. "... My working assumption is that the oil market will add $3 to $6 a barrel to the headline price for every day — every single...
The outbreak of the Iran war has pushed global oil‑derivative prices higher, causing imported 10 ppm (S10) diesel in Brazil to trade above biodiesel for the first time since October 2023. On 6 March, S10 diesel at Paranaguá reached R5.173 /m³, surpassing the R4.656 /m³...
There is probably no single individual asset as widely-consequential to global markets than oil. The financial system’s simply not built to adjust smoothly to extreme swings in oil, let alone in the face of third-biggest quarterly jump in 40 years. Global...
The International Energy Agency (IEA) just authorized a 400 million barrel reserve release to offset oil disruptions caused by the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz blockade. That stabilizes markets—for now. However, with global demand at around 100 million...
NEW: US Treasury issued a general license for the delivery and sale of Russian oil loaded on vessels as of March 12. Moscow continues to be the single largest beneficiary of the Iran War. https://t.co/oVlT1gzuuN
Gas prices in the US are up over 20% in the past two weeks (from $2.98/gallon to $3.59/gallon). That's the biggest two-week spike that we've seen in the past 30 years. https://t.co/satpQMppWO
Live look at Powell getting the demands to cut rates while oil just spiked 100% https://t.co/qDIcLm6oIA
🇧🇷Brazilian trade groups are concerned with the tightening of soybean inspections to China, potentially hampering the top exporters' shipments. Doesn't seem like great timing for China after its Jan-Feb imports hit 7-year lows. Now, Chinese meal futures have hit contract highs....
Sure, the price of crude is soaring, but so is the price of natural gas delivered to European and Asian buyers. Regardless of what happens in this war, this energy crisis shows that European countries have to do more drilling....
The market thinks the AAA average US gas price will tag $4 by the end of the month $UGA $RB_F @kalshi https://t.co/kwTVTrGRRG https://t.co/L7SpkLzJR4
While crude for next month delivery is still well below the Monday highs, crude for delivery in 12 months is almost back to its recent peak https://t.co/SGyTj8k9S6
in fairness this is the only correct answer, if Bessent says "$xyz" then the Iranians have every incentive to act in a manner that drives oil prices to "$xyz"
I don't know if the peak oil price will be $125 or $225 but I strongly suspect on a time basis it comes in the next 4-6 weeks, and markets will trade differently after that peak (like June 2022).
Nothing new here, and cycles matter + drivers/duration, but I'd note in more durable moves you can repress or disinflate, but you can't do both. The room for repression is def far less, the durability and duration of the drivers in...
Cramer getting sassy about Iran not having the cards to force oil to $200/bbl by citing the US experience in the... Vietnam War? I've LITERALLY NEVER BEEN SO BULLISH. https://t.co/d8799zIp8i
