Today's Commodities Pulse
UK energy bills surge to two‑year high as Europe feels shock from Iran conflict
UK households are set to face their deepest‑unwelcome energy bill increase in two years as wholesale prices climb amid the Iran‑related war. Analysts say the conflict will push household energy costs higher for the first time across Europe.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Hormuz Disruption, $100 Oil Pose Risks to India's Inflation, Rupee: Union Bank
Union Bank’s latest report warns that ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Brent crude above $100 per barrel, creating a persistent "energy tax" on India’s economy. With the country importing roughly 85% of its crude, higher oil prices threaten to lift consumer‑price inflation above the 4% target and widen the current‑account deficit. The rupee has slipped toward a record low near 95 per dollar, prompting the Reserve Bank of India to keep the repo rate steady at 5.25% while tightening forex caps. Despite a narrowed trade deficit of $20.7 billion in March, the outlook remains vulnerable to further geopolitical shocks.
U.S. Diesel Exports Surge to Record High in April
🔥After jet fuel exports reached a record high in March, U.S. diesel exports are now hitting a record high in April.
Current Oil Supply Loss 99× Iranian Revolution Shock
Now look at the RATE of supply loss @SheDrills The rate of global supply loss today is 99x greater than during the Iranian Revolution oil shock https://t.co/ncx5kgaf83
Shanghai Composite Falls 0.58% as Energy Metals and Lithium Rally Amid A‑Share Slump
China's A‑share market slipped in midday trade on April 24, with the Shanghai Composite down 0.58% to 4,069.37 points. Energy‑metal, lithium and semiconductor concepts posted gains, while the broader market saw the Shenzhen and ChiNext indices fall over 1% and...
Permanent 1 Billion‑Barrel Oil Loss Redefines Market
What's happening with oil supply is way outside of any historical precedent, says @ericnuttall Yet analysts, economists & bankers treat it like a price problem that will soon be forgotten 1 billion barrels are gone—permanently. You don’t “snap back” from that. #OilMarkets #EnergyCrisis...
Defying Morgan Stanley: Gold Set for $6‑7k Peak
Morgan Stanley just cut its gold price forecast for the rest of 2026 from $5,700/oz to $5,200/oz. I DISAGREE. I stand with my prediction that gold's secular bull run will peak out at $6,000-$7,000/oz. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/alphqydMk9
EU and US Sign Critical Minerals Partnership to Cut China Dependence
The European Union and the United States signed a memorandum of understanding and a joint Action Plan on April 24‑25, 2026, creating a strategic partnership to secure critical minerals. The pact covers the entire value chain—from exploration to recycling—and aims...
European Stocks Slip as Middle East Tensions Push Oil to $106, FTSE 100 Falls 0.6%
European equity markets retreated on Friday, led by a 0.6% drop in the FTSE 100 to 10,399.49 and a 0.4% fall in the STOXX 50. The slide was driven by rising oil prices above $106 per barrel as the Middle...
Nickel Futures Near $19,200/Tonne as Supply Tightens and Costs Rise
Nickel futures rose to $19,125 per tonne on April 24, 2026, marking a near three‑month high. The rally reflects tighter global supply, a new Indonesian nickel ore pricing framework, and the International Nickel Study Group’s forecast of a 2026 deficit....
DRC and Zambia Emerge as Key Drivers of Global Copper Supply Amid Surging Demand
The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Zambia are solidifying Africa’s role as a cornerstone of global copper supply amid a rapid rise in demand. The DRC ranks among the world’s top four copper reserve holders, while Zambia targets...
Dangote at Full Throttle as Nigeria Becomes a Net Fuel Exporter
Nigeria became a net gasoline exporter in March as the 650,000‑bpd Dangote refinery operated near full capacity, producing enough fuel to meet domestic demand and generate significant exports. The refinery shipped roughly 55,000 b/d of gasoline and 100,000 b/d of jet fuel,...
Australia Boosts Fuel Reserves to 46 Days as Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed
Australia has lifted its strategic fuel reserves to 46 days—10 days more than at the start of the Middle East conflict—after the Strait of Hormuz was shut down. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Energy Minister Chris Bowen said the move...
LME Lead Prices Jump 1.9% as Inventories Slip 3,075 Tons
London Metal Exchange lead contracts climbed 1.9% to $1,969 per tonne in the week ending April 17, driven by a late‑week buying surge. At the same time, LME inventories contracted by 3,075 tonnes to 274,250 tonnes, underscoring a gradual tightening...
Middle East Conflict Triggers Jet‑Fuel Shortage Threat as Crude Supplies Falter
A United Nations‑cited analysis warns that the Iran‑Israel war is driving a jet‑fuel shortage as the Strait of Hormuz closure cuts crude supplies. Oil prices have surged past $120 a barrel, squeezing airlines and raising concerns across the aviation sector.
US Enforces Full Hormuz Blockade, Ends Russia, Iran Oil Waivers, Fuel Shock Hits Global Supply Chain
Washington has declared a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and refused to renew emergency waivers that allowed Russian and Iranian crude to flow. The moves, announced by Pentagon officials and Treasury spokesperson Scott Bessent, have triggered a sharp...
India’s Growth Outlook Holds Steady Amid Iran War, Weak Monsoon and Reform Push
India’s growth trajectory remains resilient despite a weaker-than‑expected monsoon, soaring oil prices linked to the Iran conflict and tightening global financing. The RBI kept policy rates unchanged while analysts trimmed FY27 GDP forecasts to 5.9%‑6.7%, still close to the central...
Canada Greenlights $4 B Enbridge Gas Pipeline Expansion to Add 300 MMcf/D in British Columbia
The Canadian government approved Enbridge's $4 billion Sunrise Expansion, a natural‑gas pipeline project in British Columbia that will add up to 300 million cubic feet per day of transport capacity. The expansion, part of Enbridge’s Westcoast system, is slated to begin construction...
Sugar Futures Rise 2% as Brazil Real Rally and Tightening Surplus Outlook Spur Rebound
New York and London sugar futures climbed on Friday, with NY sugar gaining 2.43% and London sugar 1.82%, after a sharp three‑week decline. The rally was driven by a stronger Brazilian real, lower Brazil production forecasts and revised global surplus...
Hormuz Crisis Unfolds: Market Calm, Leaders Navigate Shock
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 On the latest episode of Oil Ground Up, I spoke with @Amena__Bakr about the latest tracking of the Hormuz crisis, the shockingly sanguine market reaction thus far, and how the political and industry leadership across the region...
Uruguay’s $7.50 Gas Highlights Global South’s War Burden
Gasoline in Uruguay is about $7.50 a gallon at 81 UYU pesos per liter. The U.S. and Israeli war on Iran continues to disproportionately impact the global south.
The Ceasefire Trade Tests the Bond Market's Resolve
A two‑week U.S.–Iran ceasefire announced on April 8 drove Brent crude down from $109 to $95 a barrel, erasing roughly half the war premium. The price drop lifted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz but left the 10‑year Treasury yield...
Closing Hormuz Costs Billions, Not Just Pennies
“Too expensive. I’m a very cost-conscious person” Every day Hormuz remains closed the world loses 13 million barrels of oil, current market price ~$1.35 billion.
Oil Shortage Already Priced In, No $200 Brent
It's not obvious physical shortage of oil now should drive prices higher. Markets are forward-looking and this shortage was predictable. So the 60% rise in Brent from before the war prices much of this. Maybe we go a bit higher,...
AGQ: Leveraged Silver - More Risk Than Reward Going Into Summer (Rating Downgrade)
ProShares UltraPro Silver (AGQ) has generated a 311% price gain since the author’s bullish call in August 2023, vastly outpacing the S&P 500. Despite the rally, the analyst downgrades AGQ from “Buy” to “Sell,” expecting a 3‑6‑month correction that could push the...
Clean Energy Buffers EU Electricity Costs During Gas Spikes
The more clean energy a country has, the less it pays when gas prices spike. The chart shows electricity price sensitivity per €1/MWh rise in gas across EU countries in 2025. @CREACleanAir https://t.co/izKNUNPQwJ https://t.co/l6HAQKC1fi
Oil Prices Already Reflect War Shortfalls, Further Rises Unlikely
I covered 3 topics on this morning's live stream: (i) the 60% rise from before the war means oil already prices the physical shortfalls unfolding now, so prices shouldn't rise much further; (ii) global supply chain disruptions; (iii) rising global...
Hormuz Closure and U.S. ‘Shoot‑and‑Kill’ Orders Cripple Oil Flow, Push Jet‑Fuel Prices Higher
The United States has ordered its navy to fire on any vessel laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, effectively sealing the vital chokepoint. The closure has choked oil shipments, sent jet‑fuel prices soaring and rippled through fertilizer and petrochemical...
WTI Spreads Surge, 12‑month Up
WTI 12-month spread widened $7.84 (60%) for the week ending April 24 6-month spread widened $6.35 (69%) & price rose $10.55 (13%) from $83.85 to $94.40 #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/SWXxGMx8Qy
Hormuz Delay Persists; Stocks Hit Record Highs as Forecasted
Strait of Hormuz likely will not fully reopen for months, Baker Hughes executive says @seekingalpha and stocks are at record highs, just as everyone predicted https://t.co/byIcXkNS7j
ASX 200 Builds Technical Base as Geopolitical Tensions Hit Commodities
The ASX 200 closed slightly lower on Friday but held above the 8,735 Renko base, signaling a technical floor amid a 17.9% plunge in IGO and a 5.7% drop in Fortescue. Geopolitical pressure on oil and a looming CPI report...
Oil Inventories Near Record Lows Despite Potential Hormuz Reopening
The world’s oil buffers are rapidly being depleted, with crude inventories poised to reach the lowest levels on record even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens in full by the end of this month: GS’s Daan Struyven & team https://t.co/Z3i0GtxRlv
The Oil Futures Market Is Lying to Us
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has forced the removal of roughly 500 million barrels from global oil inventories, a pace that could top a billion barrels by June. While Brent futures have rebounded above $100, long‑dated contracts are rising...
Mexico-Japan Oil Trade Remains Sporadic, Future Uncertain
🇯🇵🇲🇽 The last oil shipment from Mexico to Japan was in October 2023, and the previous one was in April 2022. Will we see steady shipments going forward?
Silver Near Sell Signal; Break Below 72.59 Triggers Drop
$Silver - It looks like the bounce out of the March low ended at the 0.618 retracement of the March 3-23 downtrend and we're getting close to another sell signal. A close below 72.59 will likely lead to another decline...
U.S. Envoys Witkoff, Kushner Fly to Pakistan for Iran Talks Amid Hormuz Tension
Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are heading to Islamabad for a fresh round of mediated talks with Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi. The White House hopes the indirect negotiations will revive a stalled cease‑fire and ease the Strait of Hormuz...
Gold Misses Bounce, Faces Potential Drop Below 4644
$Gold - I was expecting the bounce out of the March low to continue towards the 0.618 retracement at 5027. Instead, this week was a down week and price is getting close to another sell signal. A close below 4644...
Iran-Israel Conflict Pushes Brent Above $100, Stoking Global Inflation Fears
The Iran-Israel war has lifted Brent crude to $105‑$106 a barrel, a 44%‑55% jump since the conflict began, prompting economists to warn of heightened inflation and a possible drag on global growth through 2026. The shock stems from a near‑closure...
Crude Oil Slides 1.2% as Iran Foreign Minister Heads to Pakistan, Raising De‑escalation Hopes
Crude prices dropped sharply on Friday after reports that Iran’s foreign minister, Hossein Araqchi, flew to Islamabad for talks that could extend the cease‑fire with the United States. Brent fell about 1.2% to $104 a barrel and WTI slipped $1.20...
Iran War Drives up Costs, French Farmers Cut Corn Planting
French farmers cut back on corn sowing as Iran war boosts costs https://t.co/BewOXswwv8 via @nayrazz https://t.co/p0l4KyJUZ3
Urals Crude Prices at Russian Ports Slip Below $100 per Barrel
Urals crude prices at Russia's western ports slipped below $100 per barrel, settling around $90 after a brief stint above the $100 mark in April. The year‑to‑date average rose to $65 per barrel, well above the $45 level before the...
Singapore’s Fuel Hub Doubles Russian Oil Imports Amid War
Singapore, the world’s biggest ship refueling port, TURNS TO RUSSIA FOR OIL. Oil imports from Russia have DOUBLED since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran. RUSSIA = BIG WINNER. https://t.co/oBUnq9FGNS
China’s Commodity Stockpiles, Not Strategy, Cushioned Iran War Impact
1/5 It's true that China was able to withstand the effects of the Iran war better than many other countries because it had stockpiled commodities. But it is a little silly, perhaps even a little orientalist, to say that it did...
Gold, Silver Prices Today: Check Retail Rates of 24K, 22K Gold, 999 Silver on 25 April in Delhi, Mumbai, Pune,...
India's retail gold and silver prices were largely unchanged on April 25, with 24‑karat gold around ₹152,800 per 10 g (≈$1,840) and 22‑karat gold near ₹140,000 per 10 g (≈$1,680) across major metros. Silver 999 fine hovered at roughly ₹245,000 per kilogram (≈$2,950)....
Next Diesel Price Rollback Seen at P8 to P10
Diesel prices in the Philippines are set to drop another P8‑P10 per liter (about $0.15‑$0.18) on April 28, potentially bringing the average to roughly P100/L ($1.79). The decline follows recent rollbacks of P24.94 and P20.90 earlier in the month, driven...
‘It’s a Pretty Substantial Disaster’: More Flight Cancellations Likely as Fuel Crisis Bites
European airlines are scrambling as jet‑fuel prices surge past $2.50 per gallon, driven by the Red Sea crisis and oil futures above $100 a barrel. Lufthansa cancelled 20,000 short‑haul flights, while KLM grounded 150 flights, citing financial infeasibility. Carriers such...
Call‑option Surge Lifts Futures, Then Producers Reverse
Why oil futures are lower than spot prices A one-sided rush for call options forced dealers to buy the market, pushing prices up. When that flow faded and producers sold into strength, the same mechanics reversed—pulling prices back down. #OilMarkets #Brent #EnergyCrisis https://t.co/AoJ7lKdIlf
US-Iran War to Fuel Petrol, Diesel Prices. How Can Stock Market Investors Make Money From It?
The US‑Iran conflict has lifted global crude oil above $80 per barrel, prompting analysts to expect a delayed rise in India’s retail petrol and diesel prices after key state elections. While state‑run marketers have kept retail rates steady at roughly...
Middle East Ceasefire Fails to Ease U.S. Fertilizer Price Pressure on Farmers
The April 8 ceasefire in the Middle East did not restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving vessel traffic about 88% below pre‑conflict levels and cargo volumes down over 90%. Consequently, U.S. nitrogen fertilizer prices kept climbing, with urea up...
Muted Demand During India's Second-Biggest Gold-Buying Festival, After Prices Surge
India’s Akshaya Tritiya, the second‑largest gold‑buying festival, saw muted jewellery demand as spot gold hovered just above $4,800 per ounce, a sharp drop from the January record of $5,595. While volume sales fell, higher prices kept total spend up. Investment...
Offshore Yuan Slips Past 6.83 per Dollar, Marking First Weekly Drop in Three Weeks
The offshore yuan weakened past 6.83 per dollar on Friday, triggering its first weekly decline in three weeks. The slide reflects a firmer U.S. dollar and fresh volatility from U.S. military action in the Strait of Hormuz, while analysts weigh...