Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Ranked: Which Countries Have Had the Worst Fuel Price Spikes Since the Iran War?
Oil prices surged above $100 a barrel after the Strait of Hormuz blockage, triggering the sharpest fuel‑price spikes in Europe since the Iran conflict began. Eurostat data show a 13.5% rise across the EU between February and March 2026, with diesel up to 27% in the Czech Republic and Sweden. The United Kingdom saw diesel jump 26% year‑on‑year, outpacing the EU average, while Slovenia uniquely managed to cut prices despite regional increases. EU officials are poised to relax state‑aid restrictions to help consumers as the crisis drags on.
Splash Wrap: Why the Hormuz Conflict Is a World War
The Hormuz shipping crisis has sent freight slot prices soaring to $385,000, with some bids exceeding $1 million, while disrupting global fertilizer and sulphur supplies. The International Maritime Organization’s secretary‑general called for immediate de‑escalation to safeguard freedom of navigation. Panama Canal...
Singapore Gas Supply Secure; Higher Power Prices May Benefit Units: Sembcorp
Sembcorp Industries assured that Singapore's gas supply stays secure despite the Middle East conflict, thanks to diversified piped natural gas and LNG contracts that exclude the region for 2026. The firm said higher wholesale power prices could let its power...
China Wafer Declines Narrow as Demand-Side Regulation Lifts Market Sentiment
China's photovoltaic wafer prices saw their steepest weekly declines narrow, with n-type M10 and G12 wafers falling only 0.71% and 0.59% respectively. Despite the modest pull‑back, trading volumes remain weak as solar‑cell manufacturers operate at reduced capacity, dampening downstream demand....
Chile Braces for Bad Acid Trip
Chile’s mining sector is confronting a looming shortage and price surge for sulphuric acid, a critical reagent for copper processing. The disruption stems from the Iran‑Israel conflict and the recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which have choked global...
Iran War Hits Asia’s Suppliers to Global Fast Fashion
The Iran‑War‑driven surge in fossil‑fuel prices is hitting polyester feedstock costs, pushing Indian yarn producer Filatex to pay roughly 30% more for PTA and MEG. Indian and Bangladeshi textile firms report sharp rises in yarn and thread prices, labor shortages,...
Sheep Shorn and Wool Clip Shrinking to Historic Lows
Australia’s wool production forecasts have slipped to historic lows, with the 2025/26 clip now projected at 255.4 million kg, an 8.8% drop from the previous year. The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee expects 59.3 million sheep to be shorn, a 5.9% decline that...
Dollar Rises as US–Iran Stalemate Lift Oil Prices, Euro Hit by Weak Outlook
The U.S. dollar rose as oil prices climbed amid a lingering US‑Iran maritime standoff and a three‑week Israel‑Hezbollah ceasefire extension that failed to ease geopolitical risk. Higher oil prices are feeding inflation expectations, reinforcing a higher‑for‑longer rate outlook and safe‑haven...
Gold and Silver Premiums Stay Resilient on 4/24
Good morning china At open on Friday, 4/24 Premiums remain resilient for gold and silver
PLS Restarts Ngungaju Plant, Signals Rising Spodumene Demand
PLS will restart the Ngungaju plant in July, signaling stronger spodumene demand and broader Pilgangoora growth plans. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/pls-ngungaju-lithium-plant-restart.html
Eurex Report Shows Q1 Bond Volatility Fueled by Inflation Fears and Middle East Conflict
Eurex’s Q1 2026 analysis finds bond markets worldwide saw a sudden surge in volatility after energy‑price shocks from the Middle East reignited inflation expectations. The shift forced investors to price in higher yields across both government and corporate bonds, even...
US Rig Count Down 34% Signals Looming Oil Shortage
Here is a reminder that well before the war broke out: The number of operating rigs had already fallen by roughly 34% over the prior three years in the most critical US energy basin. That has serious implications for future oil supply,...
ICYMI: Iran War Forces Asia Refiners to Slash Runs, Putting Diesel and Jet Supply at Risk
The Iran‑Israel conflict has shut the Strait of Hormuz, slashing Asia’s crude imports by about 22% year‑on‑year to a 10‑year low of roughly 20.4 million barrels per day in April. Refinery runs are projected to dip to around 28.5 million bpd through...
Ceasefire Holds, Yet Energy Flows Remain Stalled
Good morning Asia, It's Day 56 and the ceasefire is on, but oil and gas (as well as aluminum, helium, sulfur etc) are still not flowing. Crude oil is up now to 105/barrel and markets end the week with trepidation. Asia...
Indonesia to Import 150 Million Barrels of Russian Crude
JAKARTA, April 24 (Reuters) - Indonesia will import 150 million barrels of crude oil from Russia this year, the country's deputy energy minister Yuliot Tanjung said on Friday.
Report: Countries with the Most Gold Reserves, 2026
Gold prices topped $5,300 per ounce in early 2026, pushing bullion bars above $1 million each. Official holdings show the United States still leads with 8,133.5 tonnes, followed by Germany, Italy and France, while Russia, China and several mid‑size economies expand their...
US LNG Exports Surge: 10th Terminal Ships First Cargo
Dynamics and Surging Magnitude of US LNG Exports: Started 10 Years Ago in a Glut of Natural Gas that Collapsed the Price. Now 10th liquefaction & export terminal shipped first cargo. List of LNG export terminals, operating & under construction https://t.co/HdkB6QZpYk https://t.co/chnWGcbNcj
Oil Futures Hit Record Pessimism Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty
The news out of the Middle East might have seemed less dire lately, but oil futures are now basically as pessimistic as they've ever been. This could be a concern that the current war continues, or it could be concern...
Japan FinMin Katayama Warns of Decisive Action on Speculation
Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Katayama warned that speculative trading in oil markets has risen sharply and said Tokyo will take decisive action in coordination with the United States. He emphasized that the existing Japan‑U.S. currency swap lines remain unchanged, providing...
Oil Holds $100; Stocks Rise Despite Hormuz Shutdown
Oil is stuck at $100 even though the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut since late February. Stocks are rallying anyway. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/huz3ZbwJ6f
Guangdong Power Prices Near Double Amid LNG Shortage
Power prices in China's industrial hub have almost doubled due in part due to a natural gas supply crunch 🇨🇳⚡ Spot rates in Guangdong climbed to ~680 yuan/MWh — a three-year high. The region is getting 40% less LNG due to...
Texas, Florida, Utah and Others Stockpile Gold Bars as Inflation Hedge
Texas, Florida, Utah and Wyoming have enacted laws to purchase and store gold bars, aiming to protect state savings from persistent inflation and soaring federal spending. The moves come as gold prices sit above $4,700 an ounce and the national...
Gulf Oil Output Set to Rebound Within Months
Gulf Oil Output Likely To Rebound Within Months After Hormuz Reopening, Goldman Says – RTRS
Andurand Capital's Levered Oil Bet Crashes 52% in Early April
Pierre Andurand’s flagship commodity fund lost roughly 52% in the first two weeks of April after a 5x leveraged long oil position turned sour. The drawdown erased a 31% March gain and left the fund down about 37% for the...
Lithium Supply Tightens as Low Prices Stall New Projects
Lithium supply is tightening, with analysts warning of a potential global deficit as early as 2024 that could extend to 2035. Prices have plunged about 80% year‑over‑year to mid‑2025, eroding miner margins and stalling new projects. Production cuts are evident...
BC Gas Prices Free of Carbon Tax, Impact Minimal
There is no carbon tax imposed at the pump in BC right now. The impact of the industrial carbon tax on fuel prices is tiny compared to the impact of the removal of consumer prices, so the total tax impact...
Iran War: Jet Fuel Shortages Equal Expensive Summer Travel
The escalation of the Iran‑Israel conflict has choked the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for roughly 25% of global jet fuel, prompting airlines to slash routes and brace for higher prices this summer. Lufthansa Group announced the cancellation of 20,000...
Gold & Silver Sell Off As Israel Makes Clear The War (& Strait Closure) Aren't Ending Anytime Soon
Gold futures slipped $44 to $4,708 per ounce and silver fell $2.51 to $75.44 per ounce, while crude oil rose $4 to $97 a barrel. The decline reflects market anxiety that the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, as Israel’s...
Copper Demand Soars, Supply Lags—Prices Must Spike
@MBazilian Director of the @payneinstitute for Public Policy at the @coschoolofmines is a leading authority on supply and critical metals and coauthor of this article. Morgan is 100% right: copper demand from AI, EVs, data centers and global electrification is...
Spot Prices Wrap: West Texas Natural Gas Stumbles as Oversupply Outweighs Warm Weather
West Texas natural‑gas spot prices slipped into negative territory on Thursday as mild spring weather dampened heating demand and pipeline constraints limited take‑away capacity. The oversupply situation outweighed any seasonal warm‑weather boost, driving the Waha hub to trade below $0...
THE SILVER SQUEEZE IS INEVITABLE: The U.S. Imports 77%, China Sets Records, the 6-Year Deficit, & America's Critical Silver Vulnerability...
The United States now imports roughly 77% of the silver it consumes, even after the metal was officially labeled a critical mineral by the USGS. Meanwhile, China set a new record by importing 836 tons of silver in March—a 78% month‑over‑month...
IMF Warns Middle East Conflict Could Slash Emerging Market Growth, South Africa Hit Hardest
The International Monetary Fund warned that an expanding war in the Middle East could push global growth down to about 2% and depress emerging‑market output by roughly twice the rate seen in advanced economies. South Africa and other oil‑importing sub‑Saharan...
IEA Chief Warns of Unprecedented Energy Security Threat as 13 Million Barrels per Day Vanish
International Energy Agency executive director Fatih Birol told CNBC the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has removed roughly 13 million barrels of oil per day from global supply, calling it the largest energy‑security threat ever. The loss is driving soaring...
Oil Would Need $350 to Trigger 1970s‑style Inflation
My Leading Inflation Index has jumped to 3.95% after the recent surge in oil prices. But even this is not even remotely close to resembling the 1970s. In order to get a 1970s style rate of inflation (10%+) you'd need...
Trump’s Trade Policies Spark Heightened Commodity Demand
My take on @PalisadesRadio on why commodities are HOT: "Trump's tariffs and sanctions have disrupted the global movement of goods. There is risk and uncertainty as to what Trump will do next, and that increases a precautionary demand for commodities of...
Santos Lifts Q1 Output, Keeps 2026 Outlook Steady Amid Rising Oil Prices
Australian oil producer Santos posted first‑quarter production of 22.5 mmboe, a 1% rise from the prior quarter and 3% above the same period in 2025. Sales reached $1.27 billion and free cash flow hit $383 million, while the company left its 2026 production...
2026 Oil Bull Market: A Long Shot From the Start
It’s really hard to overstate just how much of a long shot an oil bull market in 2026 was heading into the year. And, yet
Gasoline Breakout Proves Skeptics Right, Experts Wrong
Watching the 'strait is open told you so the experts were wrong again' people last Friday post the 'breakout' in Gasoline 6 days later https://t.co/GB8PhrUKTX
Rare Diesel Cargoes Move From US West Coast to Australia
Three tankers have departed the U.S. West Coast carrying more than 925,000 barrels of ultra‑low sulfur diesel bound for Australia, a route rarely used before the recent Middle East conflict. The volume shipped in the past two months nearly matches...
Dallas Fed Survey Shows Low Confidence in Quick SoH
. @DallasFed energy survey update is out and respondents aren't betting the ranch on a quick resolution of the SoH situation. Source: https://t.co/GgBMaWPY6g https://t.co/cgZXdCutmv
Admin Claims New Iran Terror Premium in Oil Prices
From the @DallasFed special edition of its energy survey: “… The administration’s comment about an “Iran terror premium” existing for decades with oil pricing is laughable. But now the administration has created one where it did not exist before…” — anonymous...
Futures Settle: ‘Historically Large’ Storage Injection Snaps Nymex Natural Gas Win Streak
Natural gas futures slipped sharply on Thursday after the Energy Information Administration reported a 103 billion cubic‑feet weekly injection, the largest in recent history. The injection lifted total Lower 48 working inventories to 2,063 Bcf, well above the five‑year average. The surge in...
Urea Shortage Resurfaces; Urgent Need for New Fertilizer Solutions
We have a shortage of urea again. The last time I saw this was during the pandemic. We need to come up with better ways to produce fertilizer. Who's working on this?
Oil Output Doubled Since 2008; China Dominates Reserves
Very interesting. This does not mean Brent should be priced in the $200s today. In 2008 US oil production was around 5 million bpd. Today is around 13 million bpd. China’s oil stocks are higher than everyone else’s put together. But...
California, Rockies Rally Lifts May Natural Gas Forwards Higher Despite Permian Sell-Off
North American natural gas markets posted mixed signals in the April 15‑22 week as western regions rallied while the Permian basin saw price declines. Forward curves in California, including PG&E Citygate, jumped to $1.339 per MMBtu, turning previously negative basis into...
Brent Flat; Gasoline and Diesel Cracks Surge 20%
“Brent moved just 3 dollars. Gasoline and diesel cracks widened roughly 18 and 22 % over the same week’s window.”
European Energy Watchdog Warns Hitting Natural Gas Storage Targets Could Prove Difficult
The EU has mandated that member states refill natural‑gas storage to about 80% of capacity before winter, a move driven by the Ukraine war and a desire to curb price volatility. The Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER)...
Fertilizer Matters EP48: Feed Phosphates Market Fundamentals
In this episode, Argus experts explain that feed phosphates—calcium and phosphorus supplements for livestock, poultry, and aquaculture—are a major driver of non‑fertiliser P2O5 demand, with China producing over half of the global 9 million tonnes and exporting 1.3 million tonnes. Prices have...
A Self-Imposed Energy Crisis Looms In California
A new study by USC and UC Berkeley warns that California is on the brink of an acute gasoline shortage. The researchers attribute the looming crisis to recent refinery closures, a long‑term decline in in‑state crude production, and a sharp reduction...
MacroVoices #529 Ole S Hansen: Commodities in The Wake of The Iran Crisis
In this episode, Saxo Bank’s chief commodity strategist Ola Hansen explains how the Iran crisis is rippling through energy markets, refined products, fertilizers, metals and agriculture, creating extreme backwardation in crude oil futures. He argues that the forward curve’s steep backwardation...