Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
What Would a Permanent ‘Tehran’s Tollbooth’ on Oil Mean for the World?
Iran’s peace plan proposes a $2 million toll per tanker—about $1 per barrel—for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The charge would add roughly $7 billion a year to global oil costs and could keep Brent crude near $100 per barrel through 2027. Although modest compared with the $3 trillion‑valued oil market, legal disputes under UNCLOS and U.S. sanctions may deter Western carriers from paying. The revenue would help rebuild Iran’s war‑damaged economy and fund the IRGC’s reconstruction efforts.
The ‘Age of Electricity’ Is Here. No One Knows What Comes Next.
The International Energy Agency and Ember report that 2025 was a watershed year for renewable energy, with solar becoming the largest electricity source and renewables surpassing coal for the first time in a century. China and India drove the shift,...
Stock Market Today: Oil Rises as Hormuz Impasse Drags On
Oil prices extended gains for a fourth day, with Brent crude trading above $103 a barrel as the stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz fuels supply worries. Traders cite the lack of progress in U.S.-Iran diplomacy and near‑standstill traffic through...
Panama Canal Prices Surge as Iran War Disrupts Strait of Hormuz — Why Oil Shipping Costs Are Soaring
The Iran‑Israel conflict has crippled traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Asian refiners to seek U.S. Gulf Coast crude via the Panama Canal. Auction bids for canal slots have surged to an average of $837,500, with some offers reaching...
Mint Explainer | Is India's Wheat Export Push a Good Idea?
India has reopened wheat exports, raising the quota to 5 million tonnes after a four‑year hiatus. Record‑high stocks of 21.79 million tonnes and a bumper 2025‑26 harvest have created a surplus that threatens domestic price softness. By shipping grain abroad, the government...
Chart Alert: WTI Crude Oil at Risk of Mean Reversion Decline Below $102.2...
WTI crude oil rallied 5% on an unverified report of an attack in Tehran, but the surge quickly reversed once the incident was confirmed as a drill. The spike pushed futures to $97.22 before settling around $94.27, highlighting how headline‑driven...
Petrol & Diesel Prices May Surge ₹25–28 per Litre After April 29 Polls: Kotak
Kotak Institutional Equities warns that India’s retail petrol and diesel prices could jump ₹25‑28 per litre (about $0.30‑$0.34) after the April 29 elections. The brokerage says refiners are shouldering an extra ₹270 billion ($3.3 billion) a month as global crude prices climb and...
Fertilizer Prices in Context
A new CSIS chart tracks fertilizer, oil and maize prices from 2000, highlighting sharp spikes during four distinct crises: the 2007‑08 food price surge, prolonged droughts, the COVID‑19 pandemic combined with the Ukraine war, and the recent "Epic Fury" weather...
War's Oil Loss: 1 Bn Barrels Gone Forever
The damage is already locked in, says Vitol CEO Russell Hardy Even if the war ended today, roughly 1bn barrels are gone Flows can restart, but lost production can’t be recovered. The idea that things snap back is energy-blind fantasy
Iran's Oil Still Flowing Despite Blockade, Analysts Misread
Can Iran Keep Pumping? The Blockade’s Impact on Oil Production, Exports, and Storage Analysts missed many facts about Iran's ability to generate revenues (with 4 charts) https://t.co/OARSMvZ93z https://t.co/99em4f6lOY
Can Iran Keep Pumping? The Blockade’s Impact on Oil Production, Exports, and Storage
The United States has instituted a naval blockade of Iranian ports to halt oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran can maintain its current production level for roughly two months before onshore storage fills, after which output must be...
Gulf Medium Sour Oil Shifts From Discount to Premium
A new oil benchmark: Gulf medium sour. It’s gone from discount to premium. And it’s important. @vaneck_us https://t.co/Q5BQSDvJYQ
Iron Ore Consolidates as Investors Weigh Higher War-Induced Costs Against Rising Supply
Iron ore prices held steady on April 23 as investors weighed higher freight and input costs from the Iran war against a growing supply outlook. The Dalian Commodity Exchange price stayed at 785.5 yuan (≈$115) per ton, while Singapore’s benchmark hovered just...
HSBC Downgrades India to 'Underweight' As Oil Shock Clouds Earnings Recovery
HSBC downgraded Indian equities to underweight from neutral, marking its second downgrade in less than a month. The move follows a 42% surge in Brent crude since February, with prices now above $100 a barrel, heightening inflation and growth risks...
Brent Tops $100 Again Amid Supply Fears After Iran Seizes Vessels in Hormuz
Brent crude futures surged past $100 a barrel on Thursday, reaching $103.40 as Iran seized two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, heightening supply‑risk concerns. U.S. crude and refined‑product exports climbed to a record 12.88 million barrels per day, up 137,000...
Reshaping French Energy
In this episode, Emmanuel Vargon, president of France's energy regulator Creux and chair of the EISA board, discusses the current state of the French wholesale energy market, highlighting its strong nuclear base, growing renewables, and increased market liquidity after the...
Oil Prices up Amid Stalemate over Next Round of Peace Talks, Continued Blockade of Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices edged higher on Thursday as the United States and Iran maintained naval blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, keeping roughly one‑fifth of global oil supplies disrupted. Brent settled at $102.40 a barrel and WTI at $93.51, reflecting a...
Oil Price Today (April 23): Crude Oil Prices Cross $100 Again as Iran War Ceasefire Talks Show No Progress. $120...
Crude oil prices surged past $100 a barrel on April 23 as stalled Iran‑U.S. cease‑fire talks and renewed restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz heightened geopolitical risk. Brent settled at $101.76 and WTI at $92.82, following a $3‑plus rally driven...
CBOT Oat Futures Firm as U.S. Planting Hits 44% Completion
CBOT oat futures edged higher on April 22, 2026, as U.S. planting reached 44% of the crop, essentially matching the five‑year average. The nearby May contract rose modestly while market liquidity remained thin, reflecting a balanced global supply outlook.
US‑Iran Conflict Triggers LPG Shortage Across India
INDIA’s homes and restaurants hit by LPG shortage as a result of U.S.-Iran war: https://t.co/dzqx7u7PLP
Upstream Oil and Gas Producers to Shine in Q4, but OMCs and Gas Distributors Face Profit Squeeze
Upstream oil and gas producers in India are set to post strong Q4 earnings as Brent crude climbed to $81 per barrel, a 28% sequential rise, driving EBITDA growth of 6‑49% and revenue up 17‑22%. Down‑stream oil‑marketing companies (OMCs) face...
U.S. Retail Sales Jump 1.7% in March, Fueled by Gasoline Surge Amid Iran Conflict
Retail sales rose 1.7% in March, the strongest monthly gain in a year, as soaring gasoline prices linked to the Iran war lifted overall spending. The increase was amplified by larger-than‑usual tax refunds, but economists warn the boost may be...
'I Live in Vegas': Canadian Ag Producers Take Gamble with High Fuel, Fertilizer Costs
Canadian grain producers are confronting a sharp surge in diesel and fertilizer prices, which have nearly doubled since the Middle‑East conflict disrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Farmers such as Bruce Bird and Dave Reid pre‑purchased fuel and...
Iran Conflict Triggers 55% Oil Surge, TUI Cuts 2026 Revenue Guidance
Iran’s military action that blocked the Strait of Hormuz sent global oil prices soaring 55%, while European tour operator TUI AG trimmed its 2026 revenue guidance amid the fallout. The twin shocks highlight how geopolitical risk is reshaping energy markets...
European Rapeseed Futures Reach One‑Year High, Prices Near $570/T
Rapeseed markets in Europe surged on 21 April 2026, with front‑month Euronext futures closing at 518 EUR/t (about $570/t), the highest level in a year. The rally stems from a tight physical supply outlook, higher crude oil prices, and strong demand for...
Hormuz Standoff the 'Largest Supply Shock' Ever Experienced, Says Global Energy Expert
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has virtually stopped after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, cutting off roughly 20% of the world’s petrochemical flow. Karen Young of Columbia University estimates that about 600 million barrels of oil have been stranded...
Rollins Teases Announcements on Forest Service, Fertilizer
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins told a Senate appropriations hearing that the Trump administration will soon unveil an all‑government initiative aimed at lowering fertilizer prices and reducing U.S. reliance on Russian and Chinese imports. She also signaled that the USDA’s Forest...
Jet Fuel Import Flows Collapse
The onset of the Middle East war and the near‑shutdown of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have slashed global jet fuel exports by roughly half. Persian Gulf shipments, traditionally the largest source, have virtually stopped, while China’s de‑facto ban...
Global Strife Boosts US Gas Players' Output, Profits
In the first quarter of 2026, two Appalachian natural‑gas producers posted stronger cash flow as global geopolitical tensions lifted gas prices and a record production run defied a brutal winter. One company credited the price surge from overseas conflicts, while...
Spot Prices Wrap: Henry Hub Cash Maintains Premium to Nymex Despite Drop in Demand
The latest spot‑price wrap shows the Henry Hub cash market still trading at a modest premium to the NYMEX futures contract, even as natural‑gas demand slipped in the United States during the reporting week. Cash prices hovered around $2.85 per...
Mideast War to Erase Nearly All 2026 Oil Demand Growth
Energy Intelligence’s latest forecast predicts that the Middle East war will wipe out almost all growth in global oil demand for 2026. The supply shock from disrupted production and export bottlenecks has driven the projected increase to near zero, a...
Energy Intelligence Price Forecasts
Energy Intelligence’s April briefing highlights a sharp shift in the global oil market as the Middle‑East war drives 2026 demand growth toward zero and pushes Brent crude back above $100 per barrel. Iran’s domestic tanker fleet can keep crude loadings...
Brent Rises Back Above $100 as Focus Remains on Hormuz
Brent crude climbed back above $100 a barrel on Wednesday after President Donald Trump announced an indefinite extension of the U.S. cease‑fire with Iran. The move left the strategic Strait of Hormuz partially open while the U.S. blockade of Iranian‑flagged...
THE 2026 DEFENSE PRODUCTION ACT & GRID EMERGENCY: The Critical Metals Demand Stack Is Unstoppable & Why Trump's Wartime Mobilization...
President Trump invoked Section 303 of the Defense Production Act, designating the U.S. electric grid as essential to national defense. The White House granted the Energy Secretary authority to bypass standard procedures and deploy federal capital for rapid domestic grid...
Switzerland’s Gold Exports Rise 30% as Investors Seek Safe Haven Amid Global Uncertainty – by Ernest Hoffman (Kitco News –...
Swiss gold exports surged 30% month‑on‑month in March, driven by a sharp rebound in shipments to the United Kingdom and a solid rise to China. Deliveries to the UK jumped to 57.6 tonnes, the highest level since December, while exports...
Soybeans, Products See Profit Taking, Corn and Wheat Finish Mixed
U.S. soybean futures slipped as traders took profits while awaiting clarity on an upcoming China‑U.S. trade meeting, which is complicated by tensions in the Middle East. Corn prices moved sideways, with Midwest rain improving soil moisture but delaying planting, and...
USDA’s Rollins Signals Possible Action Soon on Fertilizer Prices
U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins told a Senate subcommittee that the administration is preparing an inter‑agency effort to address soaring fertilizer prices. She indicated an announcement could come soon, potentially involving new funding to ease short‑term cost pressures. Rollins highlighted...
U.S.-Iran Tensions Spark Sharp Swings in U.S. Stocks, Oil and Treasuries
U.S. President Donald Trump’s extension of a cease‑fire with Iran, coupled with a continued naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, sent the S&P 500 and Nasdaq tumbling while oil prices surged. Traders scrambled for liquidity as Treasury yields rose...
Stronger for Longer Pricing Sets up Tungsten Juniors for Development
Tungsten prices have surged to $3,185 per tonne, up about 350% year‑to‑date, as demand from defence, industrial and strategic stockpiling outpaces a limited new‑mine pipeline. Canaccord Genuity’s seventh Junior Book spotlights five emerging explorers—American Tungsten & Antimony, Viking Mines, Resolution...
Crude Oil Surges Despite U.S. Extension Of Two-Week Ceasefire
Crude oil prices surged on Wednesday, with WTI June futures climbing $3.54 to $93.21 a barrel, a 3.95% gain, despite a U.S.‑declared two‑week cease‑fire in the U.S.–Iran conflict. The rally reflects lingering supply‑disruption fears as the Strait of Hormuz remains...
Question Time: Age of Scarcity and Energy Prices (VIDEO)
Alhambra Research’s Bob Williams examines the emerging "age of scarcity" in a new video, highlighting how constrained energy supplies are driving unprecedented price spikes. He links tighter oil and gas markets to higher inflation, reduced corporate margins, and shifting geopolitical...
Extra Credit
Loomis Sayles’ Q1 outlook highlights rising geopolitical risk from the U.S.–Israel‑Iran conflict, which lifted energy prices and pushed the 10‑year Treasury yield from 4.17% to 4.32%. Despite these headwinds, corporate fundamentals remain solid, and earnings growth is seen as the primary...
Breakbulk26: Loss of Persian Gulf Oil Supplies Difficult to Replace Quickly
At the Breakbulk26 conference, S&P Global Energy’s Amy Groeschel warned that the war in the Middle East could trap roughly 16 million barrels of crude and refined product in the Strait of Hormuz each day, a volume that cannot be replaced quickly....
Adamas Launches Western CIF Price Forecasts
Adamas Intelligence has launched Western CIF price forecasts for nine rare‑earth oxides, including NdPr, Nd, Pr, Sm, Gd, Tb, Dy, Lu and Y. The forecasts aim to fill a data vacuum as virtually no separated oxides are produced or traded...
Copper Market Tightening Fast, Global Cathode Deficit Looms
Major metals trader Mercuria recently published to their clients feedback from the CESCO copper conference in Chile. We have read it and, in short, the copper market is tightening, fast. Mercuria believe that a global (ex-US) deficit in cathode is coming...
Fertilizer Price Surge Triggers Gradual Food Inflation
Rising fertilizer prices are now hitting farmers, and eventually those will translate into higher wholesale food prices which will (assuming higher costs are passed onto consumers) eventually land at grocery stores too. The inflationary impulse doesn’t arrive all at once,...
Oil Prices Rise Despite US-Iran Ceasefire Extension
Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday as Brent crude approached $100 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose above $90, despite the United States extending a cease‑fire with Iran. The extension has done little to ease market nerves, with...
Presidents' Oil Price Moves During Hormuz Crisis
A brief history of presidential oil price jawbones through the Hormuz crisis. Feel free to add your favourites below. https://t.co/iF0JvVgn0v
CMA CGM Adjusts BAF on France–Tunisia Ro-Ro Service
CMA CGM will revise its Bunker Adjustment Factor (BAF) for the ro‑ro South service linking France and Tunisia, effective May 1 2026. The new surcharge sets full rolling units at €649 (≈$708) per unit, empty units at €430 (≈$469), other rolling cargo...
WTI Climbs 11% as US‑UK Spread Flips Dramatically
US oil (WTI) is up 11% on the week again as we move back above 93. Meanwhile, the US-UK (WTI-Brent) spread has swung back from the unusual positive extreme (+2.50, highest since Nov 2008) back to negative extreme (-8.75). Basis...