Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
This Chevron Exec Has An Answer To Rising Gas Prices That Americans Aren't Going To Like
Gasoline prices in the United States hit $4.02 per gallon on March 31, 2026, the highest level since summer 2022, while diesel averages $5.51. Chevron downstream president Andy Walz told CBS News that there is no "silver bullet" for the surge, urging drivers to conserve fuel and reduce mileage. He highlighted Chevron’s 24/7 operation of its Pascagoula refinery using newly sourced Venezuelan crude as a way to buffer U.S. prices. Walz cautioned that the situation could worsen without broader supply‑side actions.
Oil Surge Makes 2026 Fed Rate Cuts Unlikely
WTI back at $88, with the Strait closed again, means the Fed's path just got harder. Energy feeds into CPI with a lag, so every week oil stays elevated, and every dollar above $80 is another month of sticky inflation prints....
Market Watch: May Nymex Gas Contract Inches Higher
May natural‑gas futures on the NYMEX edged up 0.8 cents to $2.697 per million British thermal units on Tuesday. Gelber & Associates noted the move recovers a fraction of the steep decline seen since the start of the injection season. The...
Today’s TACO Tuesday and the Markets
Paul Krugman argues that analysts, including the IMF, model the Hormuz crisis backwards—starting with oil price forecasts instead of physical supply constraints. He contends that real shortages, not price spikes, drive deeper economic disruption. The piece highlights that a sizable...
Global Energy Markets Are on the Verge of a Disaster
On April 17, Brent crude plunged 10% to $90 a barrel after Iran’s foreign minister announced the Strait of Hormuz was "completely open." Hours later Iran attacked an Indian tanker, prompting a modest 5% rebound the following day. Despite the...
War-Driven Gas Demand Destruction Unsustainable, Execs Warn
Executives at the FT Commodities Global Summit warned that the sharp demand destruction for natural gas—triggered by soaring prices after the Middle‑East war—cannot be sustained across all sectors. High gas costs have forced industry players, especially in power generation and...
U.S. Sugar Producers Close to Collapse as Alliance Calls for Higher Tariffs on Imports
U.S. sugar producers are facing a potential collapse as the American Sugar Alliance urges the U.S. Trade Representative to invoke Section 310 powers and raise tariffs on cheap imports. The Alliance reports a dramatic surge in foreign sugar shipments, climbing from...
Cattle Futures Lower Heading Into Midweek
Cattle futures slipped on Tuesday as technical selling pressured live and feeder contracts, with June live cattle down $2.52 to $243.55 and May feeder cattle off $2.55 to $358.55 per hundredweight. Direct cash cattle activity was muted, and auction prices...
Purdue Economist: Geopolitical Tensions Igniting Long-Term Concerns About Fertilizer Prices
Purdue economist Joana Colussi warns that the ongoing conflict in Iran has pushed U.S. fertilizer input costs up more than 30% since late February, creating immediate pressure on the current crop season and a heightened risk of elevated prices through the...
The Hormuz Closure Is Driving a Shortage of Battery Ingredients
The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has choked the flow of seaborne sulfur, driving up sulfuric acid prices worldwide. As the primary feedstock for refining copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium, the shortage is already prompting output cuts at...
Near‑Zero Hormuz Traffic Triggers Container Shortages and Pushes Brent Above $94
Near‑zero tanker crossings of the Strait of Hormuz have forced carriers onto the Cape of Good Hope, spiking spot container rates by more than 20% and lifting Brent crude to $94.57 a barrel. The disruption deepens container imbalances and fuels...
Former USDA Economist Explains What’s Driving the U.S. Ag Trade Deficit
Former USDA chief economist Joe Glauber told Brownfield that the U.S. agricultural trade deficit is shrinking, dropping from $6.5 billion in January 2025 to $1.75 billion in January 2026. He emphasized that the deficit reflects low export prices rather than a loss...
Brent Surpasses $100 as VP Vance Cancels Islamabad Trip
Brent oil is back above $100 after US Vice President JD Vance called off his Islamabad trip. This follows Iran’s refusal to join talks there to negotiate an end to the War or, at the minimum, extend the ceasefire, which is...
Italian Urea Spring Needs Mostly Covered
Italian urea imports for the 2026 spring corn season are now largely satisfied, as demand fell about 15% and total needs are estimated at 300,000‑350,000 tonnes. Prices have surged 77% year‑on‑year, climbing from €522/t (~$575) at the end of February...
Stagflation Dead Ahead! | Chance Finucane
Chief Investment Officer Chance Finucane of Oxbow Advisors warns that the oil price shock from the Iran conflict is igniting a fresh inflation surge that could drag growth into stagflation. He believes markets are already pricing a near‑term de‑escalation, leaving...
Broken Support May Flip to Strong Resistance
Broken support becomes resistance? $CL_F $USO After buyers defended the AVWAP from the beginning of the war, that anchor failed abruptly with the gap lower last Thursday. Now the prior support is being tested and it has the potential to...
Reprocessing Gamble Could Drain Nuclear Waste Fund, Raise Electricity Prices
The Department of Energy’s push to bundle spent‑fuel reprocessing with broader nuclear‑lifecycle initiatives threatens to siphon the $47 billion Nuclear Waste Fund. Reprocessing, which aims to extract plutonium and uranium, has repeatedly proven costly, technically fragile, and generates new waste streams...
Energy Stocks Poised for 10x Gains, Ignored
I sat down with @JosefSchachter, one of Canada's most respected energy analysts with 45+ years in the market. Crypto can be interesting, but energy stocks can easily do a 10-20x themselves. He told me energy stocks are about to 10x, and most...
Philippines Weighs Increase in Fish Imports, Subsidies as Fuel Costs Squeeze Seafood Sector
The Philippine government is weighing a boost to fish imports, potentially up to 350,000 metric tons, as soaring diesel costs threaten the viability of local fisheries. Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. warned that fuel now accounts for 70‑80% of...
Europe, Atlantic Crude Tanker Rates at Pre-War Levels
Atlantic and European crude tanker rates have retreated to pre‑war levels as surplus vessels shift from the Middle East Gulf to other routes. The Black Sea‑Mediterranean Suezmax price fell from $57.19 per ton to $27.69 per ton within two days....
Commodities: Oil Takes the Reins From Gold
Oil has begun to outperform gold as the leading commodity on CME’s trading platforms, driven by stronger demand expectations and tighter supply outlooks. Recent price movements show crude futures gaining momentum while gold prices have softened amid easing inflation concerns....
Jet Fuel Volatility Continues to Weigh on Airline Profitability, Warns IBA
New IBA analysis shows jet fuel prices remain roughly 54% above pre‑conflict levels, with a brief dip to $94 per barrel after a ceasefire but overall volatility persisting. The firm revised its 2026 global airline EBIT margin outlook down to...
Goldman Sachs Pulls Back on 2026 Fed Rate‑cut Outlook Amid Oil‑driven Inflation
Goldman Sachs revised its 2026 Federal Reserve rate‑cut forecast, still seeing up to two 25‑basis‑point cuts but warning that timing is unclear. The shift follows an oil‑price shock from the Middle East conflict that has lifted inflation risks even as...
Iran-Israel Conflict Triggers $50B Oil Shock, Slashing Emerging Market Growth Forecasts
The Iran‑Israel/US war has knocked more than 500 million barrels of crude offline, pushing Brent above $100 and diesel to $5.61 per gallon. The shock has slashed IMF growth forecasts for emerging Asia to 4.9% and forced the UAE to seek...
RBI Governor Warns Global Supply Shocks Could Trigger Second‑Round Inflation in India
Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra warned that ongoing West Asia conflict could turn first‑round price shocks into entrenched second‑round inflation, stressing the need for data‑driven monetary policy and careful forex interventions. The central bank, holding $710 billion in reserves,...
Treasury Yields Rise as Iran Ceasefire Talks Lift Oil Prices
U.S. Treasury prices fell and yields climbed after renewed ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran pushed crude oil higher. The move marked a clear geopolitical catalyst for the bond market, separate from the ongoing Federal Reserve nominee hearing.
This Isn't Trading. It's Theft From Your Retirement.
The post alleges that Donald Trump’s public statements and policy moves in 2025‑2026 triggered massive, precisely timed trades that enriched insiders while wiping out trillions in market value. Notable examples include a $500 million crude‑oil futures dump before a cease‑fire announcement,...
EU Transport Chief Says ‘No Need’ to Curb Fuel Use Despite Supply Fears
EU transport commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas said there is no need to curb fuel demand even as the war in Gaza and a near‑two‑month closure of the Strait of Hormuz have added roughly $540 million a day to EU energy costs and...
Copper Leads Weekly Surge in Global Commodity Prices as DRC Mining Products Show Mixed Trends
Copper prices climbed to $12,836 per ton in the week of April 20‑25, up $688 from the prior week, extending a multi‑week rally. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) also projected gains for gold, tin, wolframite and silver ore, while...
Benefiting From Rising Lithium Prices, Ganfeng Lithium Expects Q1 Return to Profitability
Ganfeng Lithium said its Q1 2026 net profit will hit ¥1.6‑2.1 bn ($220‑290 million), a 550‑690% jump from a year earlier, with adjusted profit of ¥1.25‑1.75 bn ($174‑243 million). The surge stems from soaring battery‑grade lithium carbonate prices, now around ¥150,000 per ton ($21,000),...
Lithium Shortage Threatens 100% Renewable Energy Goal
Does the world have enough lithium to power all the electric vehicles and stationary batteries needed to transition the world to 100% clean, renewable energy and storage for everything? More info https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-lithium.pdf https://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/WWSStillNMN/StillNMN.html Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKBTnj1nTWo
Energy Shock From Trump and Hormuz Closure Spurs Fertilizer Surge
Fertilizer Prices Skyrocket Thanks To Trump, Strait of Hormuz Closure Abishur "Mr Geopolitics" Prakash explains why the energy crisis has quickly created a global food crisis. #cdnpoli #iranwar https://youtu.be/MG9J7FJIwzg
Halliburton Upbeat on Post-Iran War Business Outlook, Predicts US Drilling Resurgence
Halliburton posted first‑quarter 2026 results that were essentially flat versus the same period a year earlier, aligning with Wall Street forecasts. CEO Jeff Miller said the company is optimistic about a post‑Iran war environment, expecting higher oil and gas prices...
Brent Crude Surges Past $100 Mark Again
*VANCE CALLED OFF TRIP TO PAKISTAN: AP And just like that Brent breaks back above the magic $100 treshold https://t.co/6zbrIXzw1c
DHL Sees European Jet Fuel Through June, Asia Uncertain
DHL expects jet fuel supplies into June for Europe, but has doubts over Asia https://t.co/kxr0837JmW
Texas Oil Pipes Are Running All-Out on War-Driven Demand
Texas pipelines moving Permian crude to Gulf Coast export terminals have reached an all‑time high, averaging 5.27 million barrels per day—a 1.5% weekly increase. Some lines, such as the Corpus Christi system, are operating at 102% of their designed capacity as shippers...
Copper at $6 Signals Economy’s Health Boost
Here comes "The Doctor," touching $6 again. They call it Doctor Copper because the metal's action diagnoses a sick or recovering economy. A nice 55.1 on ISM Manufacturing Production indicates the industrial sector has been taking its Vitamin (C)opper. https://t.co/BGqFYLIPUI
China and US Fight Tightening Copper Market
A global tug of war between the SHFE (China) and the Comex (USA) for copper
Feed Market Analysis: Alltech Releases 2026 Agri-Food Outlook, Highlighting Production Trends
Alltech’s 15th annual Agri‑Food Outlook reports a 2.9% rise in global feed production in 2025, reaching 1.44 billion metric tons. The study, based on data from 38,837 feed mills in 142 countries, confirms that China, the U.S., and Brazil remain the top...
Oil Prices Set to Surge After Gulf Shipments End
My take w/ @WallStBullion on why OIL is about to SPIKE: "By the end of April, all pre-war Gulf oil shipments will be delivered. Then, oil prices will spike again. Soon, the paper market will be mugged by reality & converge.” STAY LONG...
Markets Assume Peace, yet Signals Warn of Uncertainty
Three signals flashed green last week. One flashed yellow. S&P ripped +4.5%. Gold above $4,800. Oil collapsed below $85. The market just priced in peace. What if it's wrong? https://t.co/PPkEJEJRRN
Aviation’s Decarbonization Bet Is Looking Shakier Than Ever
Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) was touted as a hedge against soaring jet‑fuel prices, but the Middle‑East conflict has driven fuel costs to more than double in a month, exposing the industry's reliance on volatile fossil supplies. SAF now accounts for...
WTI May Futures Expire; Prompt Spread Squeezed
WTI May futures contract expiring today. Prompt time spread getting squeezed this morning into expiry. https://t.co/ngZp1l2e18
US Must Ban Crude Exports by July Amid Storage Crisis
U.S. will have to ban crude & product exports before July, writes @HFI_Research Storage will be at operational limits by then—regardless of Hormuz Demand destruction of 11–13 mb/d is coming. The market won’t rebalance at $95. https://t.co/7pITLtH3tR #OilMarkets #EnergyCrisis #DemandDestruction #CrudeOil #Geopolitics
Croatian Strawberry Production Declines as Prices Climb
Croatian strawberry production is slumping, pushing market prices to near‑luxury levels. Domestic growers report a 40% drop in output in the Vrgorac region and labor shortages hampering harvests. Prices have risen to about $7.60 per kilogram on average, with peaks...
Gold Bull Run Set for $6‑7K Amid US Policy Fear
My take with @WallStBullion on why the GOLD BULL is here to stay: "Gold will peak out at $6,000-$7,000/oz. People are worried erratic US policy. They don't want to get trapped in the dollar system for fear of sanctions. So they...
Oil Traders Warn Worst of Demand Hit Is Yet to Come
Top oil traders warned that the demand destruction caused by the Iran‑Israel war could double to about 5 million barrels per day, roughly 5 % of global supply, if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed for three months. Gunvor and Vitol estimate...
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Daybreak April 21: Rollins Hints at Fertilizer Announcement This Week
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins announced that the administration will unveil a new fertilizer initiative this week, using tariff revenues to strengthen domestic supply amid an 80% rise in urea prices. Recent actions have included easing inland shipping rules and loosening...
American Gold's Prez Sees Gold Hitting $6,000 Within 18 Months
The episode explores three main topics: the massive wealth transfer from baby‑boomers (about $84 trillion expected to shift by 2040) and how inheritors are often switching away from their parents' financial advisors; the outlook for gold, with American Gold Exchange president...
Cleveland-Cliffs Q1 2026 Earnings Surge on Higher Iron‑Ore Prices, EBITDA Hits $95M
Cleveland-Cliffs posted adjusted EBITDA of $95 million for Q1 2026, a $274 million YoY rise, driven by a $68‑per‑ton price increase and higher shipments. The company flagged an $80 million energy‑cost hit, a 40% Canadian price discount and a $425 million asset‑sale target for the...