Know What's Happening in Commodities
Know What's Happening in Commodities
OPEC+ signals modest output boost amid Middle East war
OPEC+ members agreed in principle to raise their oil production quotas for May by about 206,000 barrels per day, a modest but symbolic move. Saudi Arabia and Russia led the video‑conference decision as the US‑Israeli war with Iran has shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting an estimated 12‑15 million barrels per day from global supply.
The World Bank released its March 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, forecasting a 7% decline in global commodity prices this year – the lowest level since the 2020 pandemic lockdowns. The drop is anchored in a massive oil glut of about 1.2 million barrels per day and a structural slowdown in Chinese industrial demand. The projection, published mid‑March 2026, signals the fourth straight year of falling raw‑material costs.
The first five oil shocks since 1970 triggered recessions. The sixth one in 2022 didn't. Now we're in the seventh spike. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/E0T0q5vh0c
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) released a report attributing the 36% plunge in silver on January 30 to the expanding role of leveraged exchange‑traded funds (ETFs). Retail investors poured into double‑levered products such as AGQ, forcing rapid rebalancing in silver...
The Association of Mining and Exploration Companies (AMEC) warns that domestic diesel distribution bottlenecks are hampering remote Australian mining projects, especially junior operators. While fuel imports remain steady, major wholesalers are rationing supplies to independent distributors, creating uncertainty for smaller...
Benchmark crude oil prices surged to multi‑year highs on Tuesday after Iran struck a critical Gulf oil terminal and Israel reportedly killed Iran’s security chief in a bombing. The attacks heightened concerns over regional supply disruptions, prompting traders to bid...
April natural‑gas futures on the NYMEX edged up 1 cent to $3.033 per million Btu, keeping the contract near the psychologically important $3 handle. Gelber & Associates highlighted a tug‑of‑war between brief late‑season cold snaps and a broader spring‑warming trend,...
Oil prices surged on Tuesday, with Brent climbing to $103.42 a barrel and U.S. crude reaching $96.21, reflecting a 2‑3% jump amid heightened geopolitical tension. President Donald Trump warned that NATO allies are unwilling to join a U.S.-led naval escort...
A Transport & Environment study finds that a sustained oil price above $100 per barrel would make gasoline drivers in Europe pay roughly five times more per 100 km than electric‑vehicle owners. The analysis, based on the 2022 Russia‑Ukraine shock,...
China is grappling with a global energy shock that has widened the price gap between its domestic fuel and the higher rates in neighboring Hong Kong. The disparity, driven by lingering subsidies and import dependence, prompts Hong Kong motorists to cross the...
Today's agricultural futures market moved in mixed directions before rallying across the board. Soybeans saw spread trading keep spot prices flat while deferred contracts gained, and the whole soy complex later rose on energy support. Corn prices were buoyed by...
Fastmarkets announced a delayed publication of six European magnesia price indices, covering calcined agricultural, Greek raw, dead‑burned (90% and 95% MgO), fused (97% MgO), and lump forms (90% and 97% MgO). The notice lists the specific product codes (MB‑MAG‑0012, 0013,...
The U.S. Treasury is expanding sanction waivers to allow imports of Venezuelan fertilizer as part of a broader effort to curb soaring input costs for American farmers. The move follows comments from Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins that the administration is...
Australian mining magnate Gina Rinehart’s rare‑earth holdings have surged to over $2.4 billion, driven by a global push to diversify away from China. The portfolio, once a modest side‑investment, now represents a significant portion of her $25 billion wealth. China still controls...
The uranium market is entering a critical juncture as nuclear power demand accelerates while supply tightens. At the PDAC conference, Cameco’s president and a UxC analyst warned that structural constraints—geopolitical disruptions and project development risks—could reshape pricing and security for...
The UK Department for Business and Trade is poised to slash tariff‑rate quotas for steel imports by up to 50%, targeting hot‑rolled coil (HRC) and hot‑dip galvanized (HDG) products. Argus estimates the cuts would create annual shortfalls of roughly 488,000 t...
Gold prices are consolidating around the $5,000 level, trading sideways with no clear directional bias. The 4‑hour stochastic indicator failed to generate bullish momentum, while the daily stochastic is deeply oversold—the most extreme since early November—suggesting downside may be capped...
Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi warned that a 49% chance of a U.S. recession looms within the next year as crude oil prices surge amid the U.S.-Iran conflict. Brent crude jumped nearly 40% in March, reaching $119.50 per barrel, while...
A significant copper shortage is projected over the next 15 years, with ING Group forecasting a 600‑kiloton refined copper deficit in 2026, extending the shortfall from the previous year. Ongoing mine disruptions and growing tariff anxieties are tightening supply further....
A poll by the Angus Reid Institute finds Canadians in the cheapest‑gas provinces—Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba—are the most vocal about the financial strain caused by rising pump prices. Nationwide gasoline has jumped 23% to $1.74 per litre since the Iran‑related...
U.S. steel prices remain elevated because tariff uncertainty adds a risk premium that outpaces weak demand and softening industrial indicators. Reduced imports have pushed buyers toward higher‑cost domestic mills, providing short‑term price support despite limited capacity. Ongoing legal challenges to...
Liontown Resources CEO Tony Ottaviano says large‑scale stationary energy storage is emerging as a second engine for lithium demand, reducing reliance on electric vehicles alone. Fastmarkets forecasts global storage installations will grow ~25% annually, reaching about 800 GWh by 2030 and...
CME Group’s economic research maps the long‑term drivers behind the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) and its six sectors. Historical analysis shows energy’s early‑2000s surge tied to China‑India demand and geopolitical shocks, while precious metals have led recent performance, with silver...
EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra signaled a soft price cap for the EU Emissions Trading System could be introduced before the third quarter, ahead of the scheduled ETS review in July. The Commission will first tackle the market stability reserve...
Gold rose to $5,049 per ounce and silver to $82.76 per ounce on 17 March as the U.S. dollar eased from a 10‑month high. The rally was fueled by the weaker dollar, central‑bank meeting anticipation, and a concurrent jump in crude‑oil...
Big oil has its prophets of doom. When it's unhappy, it trots them out to prophesy doom. One such forecast in 2022 was oil would hit $380 because of the G7 price cap. This is lobbying on behalf of big...
U.S. diesel prices broke the $5 per gallon barrier on Monday, reaching a nationwide average of $5.044, the highest level since December 2022. The surge represents more than a 33% increase since the Iran‑related conflict began, outpacing gains in other...
If you live in Atlanta, what prices have you seen this week for gas? I’m trying to see something 👀👀
Egyptian fertilizer producer NCIC announced the award of its latest tender, selling the full 25,000 t of single superphosphate (SSP) at $335 per tonne FOB and 1,200 t of sulphate of potash (SOP) at $620‑630 per tonne FOB. The SSP, containing 20.8%...
Pyth Network has launched the Pyth 24/7 Oil Index, a proprietary price feed that delivers continuous, real‑time oil pricing across global markets. By aggregating first‑party data from exchanges, institutions and trading firms, the index eliminates traditional overnight and weekend price gaps...
U.S. REFINERS’ gross margin for transforming crude oil into gasoline and diesel has almost doubled since the start of the year as the war in the Middle East hits global fuel supplies even harder than crude oil availability. Stylised margins...
PANTHEON MACRO: In a $150/barrel oil scenario, “we think inflation would peak in Q2 at about 6% ..” https://t.co/lFerTyCGCR
Gas prices staying up into 2027? It’s becoming a distinct possibility. Thanks to retired Marine Lt Col @HalKempfer for taking the time to talk supply chain issues, energy security, and the new Great Powers competition. Link below.
An update on a critical chart: Gasoline prices continue to climb, but attention should now shift to food prices, which have yet to follow. Expect policymakers to call it transitory again, even as resource prices — despite volatility — remain elevated by...
Plenty to talk about this week as @MrMBrown and I resume our weekly podcast. Amongst other things we'll be looking at crude oil's impact on markets which could well reverberate for some time #oilcrisis https://t.co/B6h8K0JLAj
$UGA Daily. "You're gonna need a bigger jawbone." White House trying to talk down oil & gasoline prices. But gasoline futures ETF still stretching out higher. https://t.co/vicHCJhxQx
"Global airlines sounded the alarm ... over soaring jet fuel prices triggered by the US-Israeli war against Iran, warning of hundreds of millions of extra costs, higher fares and cuts to some routes." Delta fuel costs up by $400mn for March...
Keep Hormuz closed long enough and it is a mathematical and logistical certainty. The only debate is "How long is 'long enough' to make that happen?"
RBOB gasoline futures $3.12 - that's very close to the spike high Sunday night last week https://t.co/x2eJ04zPio
Actually Higher Oil Prices, cause Demand destruction that causes recession that causes Fed to cut
Oil prices climbing to $125 could shift the global economic outlook – Morgan Stanley’s Seth Carpenter @seekingalpha https://t.co/W6t7v236nu
Oil futures having a hard time rising much in anticipation of the scarcity barreling down toward us all when—as we saw last week—jawboning can dump prices by $10 and blow folks out We'll need physical markets to drag paper barrels to...
$USO There's a lot going on behind the CL chart, lots of inflationary stuff we will see as the year goes on https://t.co/QQRYWzhzi2
Pakistan looks like the Asian energy importer that is most at risk because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/7rDXmrxVqy
🇺🇸🇨🇳Trump says they are "resetting" the meeting with China that was supposed to occur March 31-April 2. That's now been pushed 5-6 weeks out, putting it around April 21 - 28. Ag markets had been hoping the meeting would result in more...
Great piece by @MelissaLawford in @Telegraph on tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and what's going on in global markets. Brent is up 42% from before the war, a big risk premium. As oil tanker traffic picks up, this...
The Brent oil price is up 42% from before the war. This shock has spilled over into all kinds of other things, but what spot and options now markets price (blue) is basically on par with what we saw after...
Kate Mackenzie and Tim Sahay at Phenomenal World posted this nice map of the global LNG market. It's featured in today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/hQaQMt4GjH
China's fuel export ban last week is already rippling through the region. Bangladesh, which relies on Chinese diesel and jet fuel, has come out and asked Beijing to honour its contracts. Australia imported a third of its jet fuel from China...
Pakistan’s LNG supply at risk of running out in less than a month 🇵🇰 🚢 Officials warn that there may not be enough gas to meet power needs after April 14 Pakistan imports 99% of its LNG from Qatar. But supplies...
"Minnesota corn farmers withstood a trade war. The war in Iran is the next cost challenge. The conflict is increasing the cost of an essential fertilizer. With corn prices already down, it’s another financial headache for farmers." https://t.co/NT2pX8mfN9
