Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Philippine Business Confidence Plummets to 25‑Year Low as Fuel Prices Surge
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas reported its March business confidence index slid to -24.3%, the lowest level since 2001, after fuel-price spikes from the Middle East conflict squeezed consumer demand. The drop signals tighter credit, weaker hiring outlook and a looming peso depreciation.
Will Asean’s Scramble for Russian Oil Fuel Shift in Regional Alliances?
Southeast Asian nations are turning to Russian oil to fill shortages caused by the Strait of Hormuz blockage. Countries including Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Myanmar have secured U.S. sanctions waivers and signed energy deals with Moscow. The move...
Clear Street Initiates Buy Rating on REalloys as Rare Earth Crunch Intensifies
Clear Street initiated coverage on REalloys (NASDAQ: ALOY) with a Buy rating and a $35 price target, highlighting the company’s "mine‑to‑magnet" strategy that keeps rare‑earth processing entirely in North America. A U.S. defense ban on Chinese‑origin NdFeB magnets slated for...
What Will Surging Copper Demand Mean for UK Construction?
Copper demand is set to surge as the global energy transition fuels growth in data centres, electric vehicles and renewable power, pushing demand up 81% between 2025 and 2040. Construction will remain a major consumer, accounting for roughly 23% of...
U.S. LNG Faces Limits Replacing Lost Qatari Supply
U.S. LNG exporters have temporarily filled the gap left by Qatar’s shutdown, pushing U.S. shipments up 28% year‑over‑year to a record 32.15 million tonnes between January and April. Despite this surge, U.S. plants face maintenance schedules and the upcoming hurricane season,...
How Asia-Pacific Is Fighting a Fuel Shock that Could Get Worse
Asian economies are scrambling to blunt a fuel shock triggered by the ongoing Middle East conflict that has largely shut the Strait of Hormuz. Governments have deployed subsidies, export curbs and work‑from‑home mandates while hunting alternative oil and gas sources,...
Airlines Navigate Jet Fuel Price Volatility
Jet fuel prices have surged to $4.30 a gallon, a 72% jump since February, as the US‑Israel conflict with Iran disrupts the Strait of Hormuz. The spike has added $340 million in fuel expenses for United Airlines and driven a 17%...
Crude Futures Rise as Banks Price In Longer Disruptions
Crude futures climbed on Monday as traders priced in a longer‑than‑expected near‑closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The market shift reflects stalled US‑Iran negotiations that keep the strategic waterway’s status uncertain. Futures rose roughly 2% across benchmark contracts, signaling heightened...
Billion-Barrel Hormuz Oil Shock Threatens Demand as Supply Losses Mount
Prolonged blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has erased roughly one billion barrels of oil, equivalent to about 10% of global Gulf‑origin shipments. The loss now exceeds the emergency inventories released earlier in the crisis, forcing markets to curb consumption rather...
Large Corn Supplies May Limit Price Gains, Analyst Warns
Analyst Kent Thiesse highlighted that U.S. corn inventories surged 11% year‑over‑year, with stocks exceeding 9 billion bushels at the start of the third marketing quarter. While many farmers are still holding unpriced grain in hopes of a price rally, Thiesse cautioned...
Natural Gas Spot Prices, Apr. 27, 2026
On April 27, 2026, U.S. natural‑gas spot prices edged lower despite the inaugural cargo from Golden Pass LNG, signaling modest price softness amid rising export volumes. Shell announced a $16.4 billion acquisition of Arc Resources to expand Canadian shale assets and...
The Renewable Shield: Energy Lessons From the Iran War
A Reuters analysis shows that European nations with robust renewable and nuclear portfolios insulated themselves from the sharp rise in wholesale electricity prices triggered by the Iran war’s disruption of natural‑gas markets, while gas‑reliant economies such as Germany and Italy...
U.S. Treasury Scrambles 2025 Budget as Hormuz Oil Shock Deepens
The U.S. Treasury has just two weeks to finalize the 2025 federal budget while the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, threatening oil supplies and inflating global commodity prices. Treasury officials must model a budget without reliable oil‑price inputs, even as...
Oil Rises as Iran Talks Stall
Oil prices jumped as stalled Iran‑US peace talks left the Strait of Hormuz virtually impassable, tightening global supply. West Texas Intermediate settled at $96.37 a barrel, up 2.1%, while Brent closed at $108.23, up 2.8%. The cease‑fire remains fragile, and...
China's Oil Demand Set to Fall Before 2030
What they know, but aren't saying, is that oil demand in China is set to decline soon, probably before 2030. Other Asian countries will follow soon after. Why don't ABDanielleSmith and BrianJeanAB know this? Wrong answers only. Let's have some fun with...
Focus Shifts to May Silver Futures Delivery Window
Silver futures update: Following the excitement and speculation ahead of the March silver futures expiry and concerns about available deliverable supply, attention has now shifted to the May contract, where the next notice (delivery) period is fast approaching.
Former President of Costa Rica on De-Risking Fertilizer Shocks: How $700 Billion in Subsidies Can Do More
In 2022 the Ukraine war sent fertilizer prices soaring, and renewed Middle‑East conflicts have again pushed natural‑gas‑linked nitrogen fertilizer costs up about 40%, threatening food security. Governments worldwide spend roughly $700 billion each year on agricultural subsidies, yet only 35 cents of...
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
Corn, soybeans and wheat futures posted moderate gains on Monday, driven by elevated managed‑money buying and a backdrop of weather‑related risk premiums. A strengthening El Nino pattern is disrupting production in Australia and Asia, while Brazil’s second‑crop (safrinha) shows signs of...
Europe Using US Jet A Far From Taking Off
Europe’s jet fuel supply is tightening after Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off roughly 40% of the continent’s imports. U.S. exporters have stepped in, delivering over 500,000 tonnes of Jet A in April, double the previous record. Aviation groups...
US Natural Gas Storage Surplus Set for Mixed Impacts in Next EIA Report
NGI projects the EIA weekly natural‑gas storage report for the week ending April 24 will show a 73 Bcf injection, trimming the year‑over‑year surplus to about 110 Bcf from 142 Bcf. Despite the lower surplus, the stock will sit 10 Bcf above the five‑year average,...
Daily Energy Report
U.S. diesel exports surged to a record high in April 2026, driven by a global shortage sparked by the Hormuz crisis. Monthly export volumes have risen sharply since 2017, with a 35% year‑over‑year increase since the crisis began. The spike...
Brent Holds Above $100/Bbl; US Shale Response Remains Restrained
Brent crude remained above $100 per barrel on April 27, while WTI traded in the high $90s, underscoring tight physical supplies and heightened geopolitical risk from the Iran‑Hormuz standoff. The market priced the disruption mainly into prompt contracts, leaving longer‑dated...
Gold Slumps As U.S.-Iran Standoff Continues, Strait Of Hormuz Remains Closed
Gold prices plunged on Monday, with front‑month June Comex gold sliding $54.10 to $4,686.80 an ounce, while silver fell 1.74% to $75.35. The decline follows a stalled U.S.–Iran peace process and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which...
Why This Gas Crisis Isn’t Hitting Like 1979
U.S. gasoline consumption has remained steady despite a 11 million‑barrel‑per‑day supply shortfall caused by geopolitical tensions. Prices sit around $4.11 per gallon, yet the impact on households is muted because fuel‑efficiency gains and inflation have reduced gasoline’s share of spending. Decades...
Paladin Energy Engages Global Buyers as Namibia Strengthens Position in Tightening Uranium Market
Paladin Energy is actively courting buyers in the United States, China and Europe for its uranium output from Namibia, as global demand for nuclear fuel accelerates. The company’s CEO, Paul Hemburrow, noted informal talks with U.S. diplomatic representatives but no...
Caspian and Central Asian Oil Markets Recalibrate Amid Trade Shifts
At the second Caspian and Central Asia Oil Trading and Logistics Forum in Baku, producers and traders highlighted a pivot toward flexible, short‑term trading as Asian refiners dominate demand. Long‑standing pipeline routes remain vital, but participants are exploring alternative corridors,...
Grains Report 04/27/2026
Wheat futures closed higher across Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis as dry conditions persisted in the U.S. Great Plains, while mixed COT data showed non‑commercial traders holding a net short position. Rice prices slipped after USDA projected a 12% cut...
Buy XRP Now Before Premium Mirrors Gold
Gold spot is $4,500. Physical gold costs over $5,000. XRP could follow the same pattern post appreciation. Institutional demand absorbs available supply and retail gets locked out or pays a steep premium for the bearer asset. If you want XRP itself...
Why Energy Independence Means Higher Gas Prices
The United States now outsources more crude than any other nation, yet drivers still face high pump prices. The disconnect stems from the fact that most U.S. production is light, sweet crude, while the Gulf Coast’s legacy refineries were engineered...
How the 160–220% Anode Tariff Died in 8 Months
In February 2026 the U.S. Department of Commerce recommended antidumping and countervailing duties that would have pushed effective tariffs on Chinese active anode material to 160‑220%, but the U.S. International Trade Commission voted 2‑1 on March 12 to reject those...
Australian Mid‑Market Trims Losses as Mining Gains Offset Energy Slump, Signaling B2B Recovery
Australian mid‑market stocks narrowed losses on Monday, with the S&P/ASX 200 slipping 0.23% to 8,766.30 while miners like Rio Tinto and Fortescue rose about 1%. The mixed performance points to a tentative rebound in B2B sales cycles as firms trim...
Data Center Demand Drives 66% Surge in Natural Gas Power Plant Costs
Tech giants Microsoft and Meta are increasingly building on‑site natural‑gas power plants to power data centers, but BloombergNEF shows construction costs have surged 66% to $2,157 per kilowatt since 2023. Build times have also lengthened by 23%, stretching projects into...
Oil Rises Amid Fears of a Prolonged Stalemate in Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices climbed on Monday as U.S.-Iran negotiations stalled, with Brent crude trading above $107 a barrel and WTI at $95.76. Iran’s foreign minister offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the U.S. lifting its naval blockade...
India's Fertilizer Subsidy May Jump 20% as Hormuz Crisis Spikes Prices
India’s fertilizer subsidy bill is projected to jump about 20%, reaching roughly $22 billion in FY26, as the Hormuz Strait blockade pushes global nutrient prices higher. The government says retail fertilizer prices will stay unchanged despite urea costs nearly doubling. To...
Hormuz Re-Opening Odds and Brent June Futures
The Kalshi prediction market indicates a roughly 45% probability that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened by July 1, while Brent June futures have risen about 2% as the perceived supply risk diminishes. The chart, dated April 27, shows the probability...
Diplomacy Stalls, Investors Hold Off on Bullish Oil Bets
U.S./Iran diplomacy makes funds wary of adding bullish oil positions Investors made no significant changes to their positions across crude oil and refined fuels last week as indirect diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran continued but appeared to make...
Sulphuric Acid Surge Drives Copper Treatment Charge Decline
Fastmarkets’ latest assessment of copper concentrate treatment charges (TCs) is MINUS $107.30/t (-2.1% week-on-week), citing recent elevated sulphuric acid prices as the key reason for the persistent declines in treatment and refining charges. Smelters are getting bumper revenues from selling...
European Power Costs Climb Even As Gas Prices Drop
European electricity prices increase despite falling gas prices #energysky -- via pv magazine global: https://t.co/yh6Ywee30g https://t.co/ktltUXCLZn
Three Strategies to Ride the US Grain Bull Market
Three ways to play the ongoing bull market in U.S. grain prices https://t.co/Ghz72lxQY3 Corn $ZC_F Soybeans $ZS_F Rapeseed $RS_F
Modern Gas Crisis Far Less Severe than 1979
Why This Gas Crisis Isn’t Hitting Like 1979 #energysky -- via Heatmap News https://t.co/EtZvmxCi20 https://t.co/ZE4aZ1dk3N
US Winter Wheat Stable, Condition Index Drops, Protein Rises
The US winter #wheat crop was unchanged at 30% G/E, but my condition index score fell 3 points to 287, as P/VP jumped 2 points to 35%. #oatt
Good/Excellent Ratings Mask Worsening Wheat Condition
Why I don't just follow Good/Excellent ratings - Nebraska winter #wheat G/E rose 1 point this week, but its condition index score dropped 26 points because the percent rated Poor to Very Poor rose 20 points to 65% this week....
Europe Faces $32 B Extra Energy Costs From US‑Israel War
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, European countries have been forced to pay $32 BILLION MORE for oil and gas imports, according to the European Commission US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = MASSIVE COLLATERAL DAMAGE. https://t.co/KypyJy56DS
War‑driven Urea Loss Fuels Food Price Surge
Wars are inflationary... Urea output lost translates to higher food prices. And this is even before factoring in the full impact of rising fertilizer and plastics prices.
Oil ETF Hits Multi‑year High, Signaling Market Shift
"As we're sitting here today $OIH made a new multi-year high. It's pulled back a little bit. Now we're sort of flirting with unchanged on the day... I think that is sniffing something out." 🛢️ @GuyAdami on crude oil & the...
US SPR Release Ramps Up to Over 1 MMbpd
US SPR release finally picking up to >1 MMbpd. That's more like a proper crisis release (er, exchange)
Hormuz Closure Sparks Unpriced Supply Shock, Markets Stagnant
the Hormuz has been closed for 58 days with no end in sight, and even if there was one, it would take 6 months to clear the mines while insurance companies stay risk-off. Supply shocks are still not priced in....
US Oil Inventories Projected Near Exhaustion by July
HFI says US inventories will be near exhaustion by July @zoomer_tate That seems extreme but at least it gives you a credible bookend. 🔽 https://t.co/XwXKnVS8xs #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/BNUOtTqd7L
Brent Futures Hit Highest Since Ceasefire Announcement
Brent crude prompt (June) futures currently at their highest level since the ceasefire was announced. https://t.co/f85nQG5DVC
Renewables Rise as Fossil Fuels Continue Declining
EIA: Renewables expect continued growth while fossil fuels decline #energysky -- via Solar Power World: https://t.co/pdy79Sqisv