Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
UAE’s May 1 Exit Cripples OPEC+ Quota System, Fuels Oil Volatility
The United Arab Emirates announced it will quit OPEC and the OPEC+ alliance on May 1, ending nearly six decades of membership and stripping the cartel of its third‑largest producer. Analysts warn the move will erode spare capacity, lift the risk premium and deepen price swings as the Iran‑U.S. conflict chokes the Strait of Hormuz.
Stalled Iran Peace Talks Push Brent Above $112, Drag Asian Stocks Lower
Oil prices rose to around $112 a barrel after Iran‑war peace negotiations stalled, while Asian equity markets posted mixed but overall weaker performance. The deadlock keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed, raising energy costs for import‑dependent economies such as Japan.
Without Supply Discipline, US Shale Faces Price Collapse
In 2015 OPEC failed to do what swing producers had done since 1932 - cut under a surplus. It allowed a glut to form. In 2020, OPEC+ disunity and ramp to max exacerbated the demand collapse. In both cases...
Global Crude Steel Production Forecast Revision: Supply-Side Shocks Drive Jan-Apr 2026 Downgrade
Fastmarkets trimmed its 2026 global crude‑steel production outlook by 42.8 million tonnes, a 2% reduction from the January baseline. The downgrade stems from three supply‑side shocks: tighter capacity enforcement in China, war‑related plant damage in the Middle East, and margin‑driven cuts...
U.S. Gas Prices Climb Further as Effects of Iran War Reverberate
Oil prices rose sharply on Wednesday as the war in Iran continued to disrupt Persian Gulf energy supplies. Brent crude jumped to about $109 a barrel for July delivery, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose above $105 a barrel for...
HCC Q1 2026 Earnings Preview
Warrior Met Coal (HCC) will release its Q1 2026 earnings on Thursday, a report analysts view as a bellwether for the metallurgical coal sector. The company recorded a spot price for metallurgical coal (PLV) of $234.59 per ton, a 27% sequential...
OPEC+ Collapse Threatens US Shale with Price Volatility
Au contraire, @WSJ: A fractured or absent OPEC+ is a disaster for the US oil industry and foreign policy. No OPEC+ = Wild Price Volatility = Gut punch for high-cost US shale oil, the first victim when oversupply...
The Cost of Prop 12
California’s Proposition 12, which mandates larger living spaces for breeding pigs, is now showing measurable economic fallout. USDA data and a North Dakota State University analysis reveal that state consumers have spent roughly $350 million more on pork over the past two...
Russia Says It Has No Plans to Leave OPEC+
Russia’s Kremlin says Moscow will not exit the OPEC+ alliance even after the United Arab Emirates announced its departure effective May 1. The statement, made by spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, underscores that Russia sees no viable path to raise output amid ongoing Ukrainian...
Gold, Silver Rates Today: Comex Gold Slides $86/Oz, Silver Drops $1.5/oz Ahead of US Fed Decision, Oil Surge
Gold and silver futures on the COMEX fell sharply on April 29, with gold dropping $86 to $4,522 per ounce and silver slipping $1.50 to $71.71, their lowest levels in a month and since early April respectively. The decline was...
Water Tower's Severson: The Economy Sees $75 Oil 'as the New $60'
In this episode, host Chuck Jaffe talks with Sean Severson, CEO of Water Tower Research, about the emerging "$75 oil" market, which he likens to the former $60 oil era, and how it’s reshaping investor expectations for energy stocks and broader...
Thailand Walked Into Its LNG Trap With Its Eyes Open – Long Before Hormuz
Thailand’s state power utility has spent roughly $2 billion on availability payments to gas‑fired plants that produced little or no electricity over the past three years. Those fixed fees now add about 0.63 baht per kilowatt‑hour to the 2026 tariff, representing almost...
Scoop: Trump Huddles with Oil Execs as Iran Stalemate Drags On
President Donald Trump convened a meeting at the White House with top oil and gas executives, including Chevron CEO Mike Wirth, to address the energy fallout from the ongoing Iran conflict. Attendees also included senior White House staff and Treasury...
Senator to File Bill Ending Morocco Duties: Correction
U.S. Senator Roger Marshall (R‑Kansas) will introduce the Lowering of Input Costs for American Farmers Act, which would eliminate countervailing duties on phosphate imports from Morocco. The move aims to cut phosphate fertilizer prices by more than 20%, roughly $150...
MISO Capacity Prices Fall as New Supply Outpaces Demand Growth
MISO’s latest Planning Resource Auction saw capacity offerings rise 3.4% to 141 GW, driven largely by 5.6 GW of new accredited resources, more than half of which were solar. Prices plunged across the region, with annualized capacity prices dropping to $116‑$126 per...
Tanker Experts Digest Impact of UAE Exit From Opec
The United Arab Emirates announced its departure from OPEC, but experts say any impact on the global tanker market will be delayed. Even if the UAE ramps up oil exports immediately, the ongoing war in Iran limits short‑term market shifts....
LPG Under Recoveries Likely at ₹80,000 Crore in FY27: ICRA
ICRA warns that India’s LPG under‑recoveries could hit ₹80,000 crore (about $9.6 billion) in FY27 as West‑Asia supply disruptions push international prices higher. The agency also projects the fertiliser subsidy to climb to ₹2.05‑2.25 lakh crore (roughly $26 billion) amid raw‑material cost inflation and an...
UK Refineries Asked to Maximise Jet Fuel Production Amid Supply Fears
The UK government has asked the nation’s four remaining refineries to maximise jet‑fuel output as the Iran‑Israel conflict threatens to choke supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Energy Minister Michael Shanks warned that global jet‑fuel shipments have dropped to less...
Ghana Cedi Volatility Linked to Extractive Sector Leakages as Gold Board Posts $455 M Surplus
Joe Jackson, CEO of Dalex Finance, warned that Ghana’s cedi volatility is driven by foreign‑exchange leakages in mining and oil rather than weak exports. The Ghana Gold Board’s 2025 surplus of GH₵5.46 bn (≈$455 m) underscores the sector’s growing fiscal weight, while...
UN's ECLAC Cuts Latin America 2026 Growth Outlook to 2.2% Amid Middle East Conflict
The UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) reduced its 2026 regional growth projection to 2.2%, down from 2.3% in December, blaming the Middle East war and soaring oil prices. The downgrade highlights how geopolitical shocks are...
Iran-Israel Conflict Sends Brent to $111, EU Faces $600 M Daily Energy Aid Loss
The Iran‑Israel war has pushed Brent crude up 2.8% to $111.26 a barrel, while the European Union now incurs roughly $600 million in daily energy‑aid losses. EU leaders warn the surge could echo past crises and demand tighter targeting of aid.
UAE Leaves OPEC, Boosts Oil Prices and Sparks Rally in Asian Stocks
The United Arab Emirates announced it will quit OPEC on May 1, freeing it to pump up to 5 million barrels per day. The move lifted Brent crude past $110 a barrel and sent Asian equity indices higher as regional oil exporters...
Why China May Benefit From the UAE’s Opec Withdrawal Amid Iran War Oil Crisis
The United Arab Emirates will leave Opec on May 1, ending its role as the bloc’s third‑largest producer, which accounts for roughly 12% of total output. Analysts expect the move to give China greater flexibility to source more Emirati crude, potentially...
WEEKLY WEBCAST: The Oil Shock & Inflation
The webcast examines why Brent crude hasn’t surged despite the Strait of Hormuz closure, noting limited response from U.S. producers. It links the energy supply crunch to broader inflation, especially through fertilizer shortages that could lift food prices. Analysts argue...
Middle East Diesel Spike Wipes Out 30 Per Cent of Log Volumes at NZ Ports
A diesel price surge driven by the Middle East conflict has slashed New Zealand’s log exports by more than 30% as contractors halt harvesting. Fuel now costs around NZ$4 per litre (≈US$2.40), wiping out margins for family‑owned logging firms that have...
Diesel Prices Decline Nationally While Gasoline Costs Rise Across U.S. Markets
Diesel prices slipped nationally this week, with the EIA reporting a 5‑cent drop to $5.351 per gallon, while gasoline climbed 8 cents to $4.123 per gallon. The West Coast saw the steepest diesel decline at 9 cents, whereas the Rocky...
Goldman Sachs Hikes Oil Forecasts Amid Hormuz Shutdown
"Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lifted oil-price forecasts as the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz spurs 'extreme' inventory draws." -BBG
Malaysian Fuel Prices April 30-May 6, 2026 – RON95 up 10 Sen, RM3.97; RON97 to RM4.90; Diesel Unchanged
Malaysia's Ministry of Finance announced weekly fuel prices for April 30‑May 6, 2026. Unsubsidised RON95 climbs 10 sen to RM3.97 ($0.87) per litre and RON97 rises 5 sen to RM4.90 ($1.08). Diesel B10 and B20 remain at RM5.12 ($1.13) per...
Crop Price Index Hits Highest Since November 2023
The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index climbed for a third consecutive month, reaching its highest level since November 2023 as the Iran‑related war in the Strait of Hormuz and severe weather disruptions tighten global crop markets. Wheat futures on the Chicago Board...
US Natural Gas Glut Shields Economy From Iran War Energy Crisis
The Iran war has driven natural‑gas prices sky‑high in Europe and Asia, but a massive supply glut in the U.S. Permian Basin has pushed domestic gas futures below $3 per MMBtu and even into negative territory, with prices hitting –$9.60...
Brent $120+ Needed to Hit 2005 Energy Index High
This Year May Test a Top Force in Energy - Elasticity If Brent crude oil can stay above $120 a barrel, the Bloomberg Energy Spot Index may top 2005's high. Both outcomes appear unlikely absent something very bad happening in the...
Energy Surge May Trigger Deflation, Crude Prices Collapse
Energy Surge Can Be a Lose-Lose for Crude Prices Spiking diesel, gasoline and natural gas prices, particularly in Europe and Asia, are curbing demand, and it's a question of magnitude and duration. My top takeaway from the energy crisis is that...
Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief
Corn, soybeans and wheat prices rose overnight as managed‑money buying accelerated, driven by a combined weather and war premium. Drought concerns in Brazil’s safrinha soybean crop and broader El Niño forecasts are adding stress to global supply expectations. Meanwhile, reduced Persian...
Metals May Have Peaked in 2026, Silver Risks Reversal
May Metals Outlook - 2026 High-Price Cure Can Endure for Years - Gold, Silver Historically, metals -- the best-performing commodities sector -- may have reached an up-too-much plateau in 2026. Silver is on the cusp of turning a roughly 70% 1Q...
Oil's 70% YoY Rise Still Lags Gold Benchmarks
Oil is up 70% year-on-year but still not a particularly impressive run in hard-money gold terms. Only back to the 2016 low. https://t.co/O03mkZeW1S
California Almond Bearing Acreage Shrinks for the First Time in 30 Years
California’s bearing almond acreage slipped to an estimated 1.386 million acres for the 2026 crop year, marking the first decline since 1995. The drop of 15,227 acres follows four straight years of overall acreage contraction and 47,588 acres of orchard removals...
Oil Rally Pushes WTI Past $105, Spikes OVX Volatility
US benchmark oil (WTI) is above 105 on a more than 5% climb today. Brent is near 110. Notably, the rally is stirring a commensurate rebound in the OVX volatility index - similar to the Mar 25 - Apr 2...
US Export Surge Drains Inventories, Threatening Energy Security
The world is calling on the barrel of last resort — and it’s brutal for the US. American total petroleum exports (crude and refined products) surged last week to an all-time high >14m b/d. The price? US total inventories plunged at ~3.5...
US Petroleum Stocks Tumble, 13.3 M Barrel Draw
Thereeeeee sheeeee goessssss US commercial petroleum inventories fell by a headline 17 million barrels, PLUS another 7.1 million barrels of SPR crude draws. 13.3 MMbbl total crude draw (comm + SPR), 6.1 MMbbl gasoline draw, 4.5 MMbbl diesel draw. https://t.co/81Zl4NqhBb
US Gas Prices Surge to $4.23, 30‑Year High
Gas prices in the US have moved up to $4.23 per gallon, their highest level since August 2022. The 42% spike over the last 9 weeks ($2.98/gallon to $4.23/gallon) is the biggest we've seen in the past 30 years. https://t.co/Rw1sNI6MuP
US Crude Stocks Drop; Distillates Hit 5‑year Low
EIA: US crude oil inventories decreased by 6.2 mb to 459.5 mb Significant products draw Distillates inventories are below the 5-year range https://t.co/s54OTlsxtI
Iran's Storage Capacity Far Exceeds Admin's Short‑term Estimates
This is the key calculation here - how much room in floating storage and in onshore facilities. Admin’s calc that Iran will have no room in a few days is clearly just wrong
Rice Prices Hit 19-Year Low, Farmers Need Support
Again, wholesale rice prices below pre-war levels (fully reversing a mini panic move earlier in April). On a monthly average basis, rice isn't far away from its lowest level in 19 years. For Asian nations, the problem is that rice is...
Refinery Jet and Diesel Peaks Cut Other Outputs, Prices Rise
When oil refineries go "max" jet and "max" diesel, they (necessarily) also reduce output of other products. The market is starting to price it.
US Gas Prices Surge Again Under Trump Administration
CHART OF THE DAY: After a short relief period, US gasoline retail prices have climbed to another high under a Trump administration. (Coincidentally, President Trump met yesterday with oil CEOs. I bet the White House will be soon announcing new...
Hormuz Blockade Drives Fertilizer Surge, Threatens Planting
Strait of Hormuz. Fertilizer prices. Hitting countries at what should be planting times. Pending food supply shortages and high prices. Hormuz—a global supply chain disaster.
World Bank Predicts 24% Energy Price Surge by 2026
Thanks to the US-Israeli war on Iran, the World Bank estimates that energy prices will SURGE by 24% in 2026. WARS = MASSIVE COLLATERAL DAMAGE. https://t.co/s4wF67lMDm
Oil Rises Ahead of Powell’s Final Meeting, Middle East Tensions
Oil Prices Advance Ahead of What Will likely be Powell's Last FOMC Meeting (as Chair): There are two dominant issues today. First, the ceasefire in the Middle East continues, but the blockade of Iran is an act of war, and...
Oil Price Standoff: Unclear Who Will Yield First
So is the idea that once oil hits $130 or $140 someone will cave but we just don’t know who? This is like a pro sports standoff heading into a strike but more annoying.
Oil Hits Record, Yields Firm Ahead of Hawkish FOMC
Two issues dominate today. Oil prices have risen. July Brent is at a new record and June WTI is approaching the March high. Bond yields are firmer. Second, is the FOMC meeting, where a hawkish hold is expected. Warsh...