Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Gold Prices Rebound ₹2,000 to ₹1.54 Lakh per 10 Grams in Delhi
Gold prices in Delhi surged ₹2,000 to ₹1,54,800 per 10 grams (≈ $1,865), rebounding from a month‑low as the US dollar weakened and Treasury yields eased. The All India Sarafa Association reported a 1.31% rise, while spot gold rose $91.80 (2.02%) to $4,635.52 per ounce globally. Silver slipped ₹1,800 per kilogram (≈ $2,925) despite a 3.31% gain in the U.S. market. The Federal Reserve’s pause on rate hikes and upcoming ECB decision are shaping near‑term bullion sentiment.
Nov Soybeans Reach Record High, Rare April Spike
📈Nov CBOT soybeans inked a new yearly high of $11.78 per bushel in overnight trade on Thursday, replacing the old high from March 12. They have since eased. Setting annual highs in April is rare for new-crop soybeans. May is a...
Why Mozambique Gas Is Essential to Global Energy Security
The Mozambique LNG project restarted in January, adding 13 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of export capacity and a domestic supply of 400 billion cubic feet per day. Its offshore fields in the Rovuma Basin ship gas directly from the Indian Ocean,...
China’s Rare Earth Squeeze: Trump Wins, EU Loses
Chinese rare‑earth exports plunged nearly half in Q1, dropping to 8,643 tonnes—the lowest level since mid‑2025. The United States saw its imports jump 81% to 2,767 tonnes, a gain attributed to the Trump‑Xi agreement, while the European Union’s imports held...
Iran War Impacts Boost US Agribusiness 2026 Outlooks
The Iran war has driven crude oil prices to multi‑year highs, lifting soybean oil to its strongest level in over three years and boosting biofuel demand. Bunge Global raised its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to $9.00‑$9.50, citing record oilseed crush...
Webinar: Asia’s Energy Shock - Who Is Most Exposed?
ING is hosting a 30‑minute webinar on May 7 to dissect Asia’s exposure to the recent oil supply shock through the Strait of Hormuz. The session, led by Deepali Bhargava, Lynn Song and Min Joo Kang, will compare strategic oil reserves, import dependence and energy‑mix...
Copper’s Gains Mirror S&P, Yet Lag Behind Trends
Highly Stock-Market Dependent Copper May Be a Guide Copper's increasing dependency for stability on a rising US stock market may underscore elevated risks across assets. My macroeconomic scorecard shows both copper and the S&P 500 up about 5% year to date...
Energy Drives 2026 Commodity Rally, Metals Lag Behind
Energy Shifts Commodity Sectors - 2026 Performance Energy is pulling other commodity sectors higher in 2026 -- the key question is how far and for how long. Sector performance has reversed from 2025, with energy leading and precious metals lagging. Full report...
Air France-KLM Braces for $9.3B Fuel Surge
Air France‑KLM forecasts a $9.3 billion fuel bill for 2026, $2.4 billion higher than a year ago and above the $2.0 billion ceiling set by CEO Ben Smith after the Middle‑East conflict. To offset the surge, the group will modestly trim long‑haul capacity...
Understanding the World's Most Unusual Commodity Cycle
In this episode, Chris interviews Grant Isaac, COO of Cameco, to unpack why uranium is a uniquely atypical commodity—its primary consumers secure fuel years in advance, leaving virtually no in‑year demand. Isaac explains Cameco’s vertically integrated model, spanning mining, milling,...
Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief
Futures traded mixed overnight as month‑end and first notice day pressures shaped market direction. Consolidation followed recent moves, while weather concerns began to dominate conversation. Drought in Brazil’s safrinha corn region and drying trends in Argentina are drawing attention, whereas...
Oil Prices Swing $15 in 48 Hours, Threatening Economy
Crazy price volatility in the oil market: In less than 48 hours, Brent crude has swung from a local low of $111 to a high of $126 and is currently trading at around $116 (Bloomberg chart below). This level of instability is...
Fastmarkets Launches Used Cooking Oil, FOB Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp, Ghent
Fastmarkets has introduced a daily price index for used cooking oil (UCO) FOB Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp and Ghent, reflecting growing demand for waste‑based biofuel feedstocks in Europe. In 2024, waste‑derived inputs reached 9 million tonnes, with UCO representing 24 percent of biofuel...
Fastmarkets Launches Crude Palm Oil Mill Effluent, CIF Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp, $/Tonne on Thursday April 30
Fastmarkets announced a new weekly price assessment for crude palm oil mill effluent (POME) delivered CIF to Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp, quoted in US dollars per tonne. The launch comes as EU demand for waste‑based biofuel feedstocks has surged to...
Silver Rallies ₹7,100 to ₹2.4 Lakh/Kg in Futures Trade on Strong Global Trends
Silver futures on India’s Multi Commodity Exchange surged 3.04% to ₹2.40 lakh per kilogram (≈ $2,900) after the U.S. Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5‑3.75%. The May contract rose ₹7,100 to ₹2,40,300/kg with 509 lots traded, while the July...
San Diego Gasoline Prices Top $6 as Iran Conflict Fuels Oil Surge
San Diego County’s self‑serve regular gasoline hit $6.04 per gallon, the highest since October 2023, as Brent crude climbs above $116 a barrel amid the Iran‑Hormuz standoff. Analysts warn the spike will linger while geopolitical tensions persist.
Oil Prices Jump To Four-Year Highs On US-Iran Tensions
Oil prices surged to four‑year highs as stalled U.S.–Iran peace talks and credible reports of U.S. military action raised fears of prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude for June delivery peaked at $126.41 a barrel, while July...
Gold Daily Call for April 30th, 2026
Gold slipped toward $4,510 on Tuesday ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting but quickly found footing at the $4,550 support zone and surged back above $4,600. The metal remains trapped in a downtrend channel, and analysts say a...
Gold Price Rises over 1% to ₹1.5 Lakh/10g on Fed Pause, Geopolitical Worries
Gold surged more than 1% on Thursday, reaching ₹1.5 lakh (about $1,800) per 10 grams and $4,633.91 per ounce, as the U.S. Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at 3.5‑3.75%. The rally was driven by bargain‑buying after recent dips and heightened geopolitical tension...
Oil Prices Surge Amid Increasing Geopolitical Concerns
Oil prices surged to near‑wartime levels as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining effectively closed. Analysts from Sky Links Capital and Saxo Bank warned that U.S. military options against Iran could prolong supply...
Oil Prices Set to Rise Amid Strait Uncertainty
My comments to CNN as Brent climbed to $125 Thursday afternoon in Asia: Oil prices have “nowhere to go but up,” until the permanent reopening of the strait comes into view, said Vandana Hari, founder of energy market analysis firm Vanda...
Oil Surge on Trump Blockade Warning Tests Stocks’ Resilience
Crude oil prices leapt to a four‑year peak after President Donald Trump suggested a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could endure for months. Brent crude surged as much as 7.3%, breaking the $126 per barrel mark. The...
Oil Price Hits Highest Since 2022 After Report Trump to Be Briefed on New Iran Options
Oil prices surged to their highest level since 2022 after reports that U.S. Central Command prepared a briefing for President Trump on new strike options against Iran. Brent crude briefly topped $126 a barrel (about $119 USD) and WTI rose...
Iran Tensions Push Oil Above $110, Market Volatility Spikes
🇮🇷 Iran Intel Brief | Pre-London ─────── U.S. oil prices surged above $110 per barrel amid potential military action against Iran. Iran maintains hardline stance on Strait of Hormuz control, increasing risk of extended blockade and oil supply disruptions. US Navy intercepted the 42nd...
This Oil Shock Will Hit Asia Harder than the 1970s
The recent oil shock stemming from the Iran‑Strait of Hormuz crisis is reverberating across Asia more intensely than the 1970s oil crises. Jet fuel in Singapore has doubled, prompting airlines to trim May schedules by 10‑15%, while Japan’s subsidies only...
Oil Surge Above $120 Drives Markets as BoE, ECB and Key Data Take Back Seat
Brent crude breached the $120 psychological barrier, reaching a four‑year high as U.S.‑Iran tensions intensify. The rally forces investors to reprice inflation and central‑bank policy ahead of the Bank of England and European Central Bank meetings. Traders now view oil...
One Man's Ego Drives US Price Spikes
🚨 ONE MAN'S EGO 🚨 AVERAGE GAS PRICE IN US TODAY : $4.18 AVERAGE GAS PRICE IN US YESTERDAY : $4.12 AVERAGE GAS PRICE IN US BEFORE WAR : $2.98 Not just gas, US WHEAT prices jumped $6.58 per bushel, the highest since June...
Grains Report 04/29/2026
U.S. wheat futures edged higher as dry conditions persist across the Great Plains, while rice prices fell following USDA’s forecast of a 12% reduction in planted area. Corn rallied despite the ongoing Iran‑Israel conflict and record spring rains in Chicago,...
MSNOW Velshi & RUHLE WHAT COULD SHORTAGES MEAN.
The episode explores how ongoing oil and gas shortages—exacerated by the war in the Middle East and Iran’s mining of the Strait of Hormuz—could keep fuel prices high well beyond a cease‑fire, affecting jet fuel, diesel, and global supply chains....
U.S. Gas Prices Top $4.20, Set to Surge
Pain at the pump -- consequential and will get more so: The national average for a gallon of regular gas (petrol) in the US has surged again ... to over $4.20 (AAA table below). It’s almost impossible to imagine prices won't climb...
Brent Spikes 5% as Market Fears Military Escalation
JUNE BRENT FUTURES AT ALMOST $124, ANOTHER 5% JUMP EARLY THU AFTER A 6% RALLY ON WED. It's the last trading day for the June contract, and most volume has already shifted to July. But still, the market is getting...
The New Resource Curse
Recent oil price spikes illustrate how geopolitical shocks can drive commodity volatility, but the emerging critical‑minerals sector poses even greater risks. Demand for lithium, cobalt, nickel and rare earths is surging—IEA reports a 30% jump in lithium demand this year...
Hormuz Closure Fuels Looming Oil Price Spike
It’s now been a month since this posting of mine. I still don’t think it’s dawned on most investors that Hormuz isn’t opening until Iran wants it open. With oil starting to get frisky to the upside, I think we’re getting...
US Gas Prices Surge to $4.30, Adding $70 Monthly
Oof. The US national gas average just hit $4.30, according to AAA. That's the highest since July 2022. Gas prices have shot up $1.40 since the war in Iran began. That's adding ~$70 extra a month to household costs. #gas #inflation...
International LNG Prices Rise Amid Strait of Hormuz Closure
The February 28 closure of the Strait of Hormuz halted roughly 10 billion cubic feet per day of LNG shipments, representing about 20% of global trade. European TTF futures jumped 35% to $14.80/MMBtu and Asian JKM futures surged 51% to $16.02/MMBtu, while...
Economist Predicts Oil Still Undervalued, Prices Set to Rise
Oh dear, the curse of The Economist's oil cover: "... Why oil prices are not yet high enough..." You know what that means, don't you? https://t.co/fWwZunxd0P
Brent Futures Hold Tight Within $13 Range, No News
The (expiring) front-month Brent oil contract has traded today within a ~$13 range in absolutely no-news.
Renewable Transmission Costs to Drive up Power Bills
Australian electricity users saw a temporary reprieve when the Default Market Offer (DMO) fell 1%‑10% on 1 July, driven by lower wholesale generation costs during a mild summer. However, the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) has approved a 10% hike in network...
Market Bets on 2026‑27 Lithium Prices, Ignores LT Re‑rating
From a private discussion yesterday in the eucalyptus tree Market seems to believe in 2026/27 lithium prices but not re-rating “LT pricing” yet Plus the usual Aussie premium for assets in the homeland https://t.co/7gAh4ZnV41
China Eases Fuel Export Ban for Select Asian Buyers
Important development: China has given state-owned refiners the green light to export some gasoline, diesel and jet-fuel to a handful of regular customers (in Asia), signaling the country is effectively easing an earlier ban on shipments.
Gold Slides to $4,598 as Yields, Dollar and Powell Speech Pressure Bullion
Spot gold slipped to $4,598, its biggest one‑day loss in weeks, while silver fell 2.7% as higher U.S. Treasury yields, a strengthening dollar and the pending Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech converge. Traders see the move as a test of...
2026 European Shock Driven by Oil, Not Gas
CHART OF THE DAY: The 2022 European energy crisis was mostly about natural gas and electricity prices. The shock of 2026 is (in Europe) largely about oil. EU power markets remain largely stable (📉⤵️). A key reason is that France is...
India Shifts to Venezuelan Crude, Reducing Iraqi Imports
🇮🇳🇮🇳🇮🇳 12 million barrels of Venezuelan crude are sailing to India on 6 supertankers. This should replace a good chunk of the Iraqi oil India used to import Map form @Kpler
Norsk Hydro Q1 Profit Falls 46% as Revenue Slides 12% Amid Aluminum Slump
Norsk Hydro ASA posted a 46% year‑over‑year decline in EBIT to NOK 4.4 billion ($480 million) and a 12% fall in revenue to NOK 50.4 billion ($5.5 billion) for Q1 2026. The results reflect weaker aluminum prices and lingering supply‑chain constraints that are reshaping the primary...
Brent Hovers Near $124, Market Awaits First Blink
Brent (June) exceeded 126/b earlier, now around $124/b. Bottom line: Who is going to blink first?
Oil Surges to Wartime Highs as US Eyes Iran
Screaming Red Headline on Bloomberg *OIL HITS WARTIME HIGH ON REPORT US EYING IRAN MILITARY OPTIONS June Brent futures (green) have doubled since the beginning of the year December Brent Futures (blue) set a new all-time high. https://t.co/MdXjetPtqJ
Oil Prices Near $120 as US‑Iran Conflict Fuels Supply Shock
Brent crude surged past $119.50 a barrel, edging toward the $120 mark, as the ongoing US‑Iran conflict chokes energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The price spike narrows the global oil supply cushion and raises inflation concerns worldwide.
22‑Year Low: US Crude and Gasoline Stocks Plunge
Biggest weekly comparative inventory decrease in 22 years U.S. C.I. fell 19 mmb & crude fell 6.3 mmb for the week ending April 24 Crude oil and all refined products decreased #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/1QZP2U0rd2
Fed Split as Oil Spikes and Yields Rise
Oil at $110, blockade tightening, inflation expectations rising. Bond yields climbing. Yet the Fed just split down the middle on whether to cut or hold rates. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/yK33qZsRVh
Traders Dismiss Political Optimism, Align With Physical Oil Reality
So, what is happening in the crude futures market? Simple : Traders are starting to discount the hope/expectation/sentiment shaped by de-escalatory head fakes from Washington to realign with the reality glaringly evident in the physical markets for weeks now.